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7/28/14 Yesterday's Results: 2-1 July Record: 30-26 (53.57%)
Marlins vs. Nationals<o:p></o:p>
Recommendation: UNDER 7.5<o:p></o:p>
We havetwo teams playing good ball as Washington heads down to Miami after taking 2 of3 from the Reds. Both teams are pitching well collectively, which has let tosuccess. Both Jordan Zimmerman and Nathan Eovaldi have been the exceptions, asthey have not pitched well at all lately. I expect an immediate turnaround fromboth and I’ll look for this one to be somewhat of a pitcher’s duel thisevening. <o:p></o:p>
Eovaldihas been struggling over his last 5 starts. His biggest problem has been givingup the “big inning.” He allowed 4 runs in the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] against the Braveslast time out but followed it up by not allowing a run over his last 5. Hisnumbers look bad in the box score, but if you look deeper the advanced metricssuggest that he should be throwing better than he is. His velocity isoverpowering, so if he can work on locating his pitches instead of just firingaway he will have much more success. He also has a 3.31 FIP against the Nat’scurrent roster, so he shouldn’t have too much trouble working through thislineup. The Nationals are still playing under their potential with the sticks,as most of their victories have been due to dominance on the mound. <o:p></o:p>
TheNationals have won 6 of 8 behind a 2.83 ERA. Most of their starters go deepinto ballgames and they have one of the best bullpens in the league for whenthe starters exit. It’s been a similar story for Jordan Zimmerman, who has beenroughed up in his last few games. Zimmerman was throwing at Coors field for oneof those, and he was battling a bicep injury that now looks to be fully healed.The errors are easily correctable for Jordan. He has been working counts welland putting himself in a good spot. His trouble came by catching too much ofthe plate when he should have been throwing out of the strike zone. He’ll workthe corners much more effectively today which should lead to this one goingUNDER the total. <o:p></o:p>
Rays vs. Brewers <o:p></o:p>
Recommendation: Rays -125<o:p></o:p>
We’veseem a tremendous turnaround from the Rays in the last couple of weeks. Not toolong ago this was the worst team in baseball and it was almost certain thatDavid Price would be dealt. Well, the Rays are currently the hottest team inbaseball after winning 9 straight before dropping one to the Red Sox lastnight. It looks like the front office is intent on making a push for theplayoffs, and why not as this division is certainly up for grabs. <o:p></o:p>
JakeOdorizzi has been pitching like the prospect most thought he was at the beginningof the year. He has a 2.96 ERA in his last 14 outing, plenty of sample size tosuggest that this guy isn’t a fluke. He also has one of the best strikeout towalk ratios in the AL. He’s hitting his spots and his stuff is solid. Odorizziwill also be pitching against the team that drafted him, so some extramotivation is in order as he will be set on beating his former squad. <o:p></o:p>
KyleLohse has been great for the Brew Crew all year long so the Rays have theirwork cut out for them on the offensive end. Milwaukee has to go to St. Louisafter this set so this may be the time that the Brewers let their division leadslip away. The Rays have fared well against above average teams, winning all oftheir series’ against the Tigers, Blue Jays, Orioles, and Yankees. I’ll takethe team that’s won 20 of 26 in this one. Take the Rays. <o:p></o:p>
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