STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
WEDNESDAY, JULY 30th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Wednesday, 7/30/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #18
•Lester Scratched From Tonight's Start As Rumors Swirl: If Jon Lester does get dealt by the Red Sox before Thursday's 4 p.m. ET non-waiver Trade Deadline, he won't get to make a dramatic final start at Fenway Park. Following Tuesday's 4-2 loss to the Blue Jays, Boston manager John Farrell announced that Lester was scratched from tonight's start in the finale, and Brandon Workman will be recalled from Triple-A Pawtucket to pitch. The Red Sox had no trade to announce, but there's a very real possibility Lester could be in his final hours with the only professional organization for which he's ever pitched.
Prior to Tuesday's game, Farrell had said Lester was still on track to pitch, though Workman was already lined up as a contingency. By scratching Lester from his start, the Red Sox could increase the urgency of their suitors to sweeten their offer in advance of Thursday's Deadline. Also, Lester becomes more attractive to a potential suitor if he can pitch immediately after a trade, rather than having to wait until Monday.
Numerous teams have talked to the Red Sox about Lester, and there was a lot of buzz about the Pirates on Tuesday. The Dodgers are another possible destination, though they've thus far been unwilling to part with the type of top prospects (Corey Seager, Joc Pederson) the Red Sox seek. The Marlins have also expressed interest, according to Jim Bowden of MLB Network radio. Even American League East foes such as the Orioles and Blue Jays surfaced at one point, but both teams appeared to be out of the running as of Tuesday evening.
While Red Sox veterans were still hoping the lefty would stay, they were bracing for the possibility of his exit. "Yeah, it's tough," said Dustin Pedroia, who came up with Lester through the farm system and has won a pair of World Series titles with him. "We're not teammates -- we're family. It's something you don't like going through. It makes you feel worse. We don't want to be in this position. I know a lot of guys feel that if you play up to your capability... we should be adding instead of subtracting. Hopefully he's here." "Lester is like a brother to me, you know what I'm saying?" David Ortiz said. "Pedey was right. We've been together for a long period of time, and it comes to the fact that all these trades and rumors are going around, it can get a little complicated. We'll see."
Even though Lester is in the final year of his contract, it would have seemed inconceivable even a month or two ago that he could be traded. But the 48-59 Red Sox have faded fast and are 12 games back in the AL East. At the very least, the club figures it is best off trying to trade Lester now for a top prospect, and perhaps rekindling talks with him as a free agent in the offseason. Lester said multiple times in recent days that he would still try to re-sign with Boston if the club traded him. "It's surprising, but with this game, you never know. You never know what's next. We'll see," said Ortiz.
•Hamels-To-Dodgers Trade Possibility: National reports surfaced Monday night that the Phillies "have made Cole Hamels available" and the Dodgers are interested. It makes sense since Los Angeles is one of few teams -- maybe the only team -- equipped with the finances and elite prospects to pull off a blockbuster for the Phils' lefty ace. But, as colleague Jim Salisbury has said all along, the Phillies will need to be bowled over to trade Hamels. The Dodgers have a package that may force the Phillies to listen. They have an outfielder, an infielder and a young southpaw who, if acquired, would likely become the Phils' top three prospects.
•Braves Need To Be Thrifty As Deadline Approaches: Like many other legitimate postseason contenders, the Braves have a few areas they would like to improve before heading into this season's stretch run. But their dire need to mend their fractured starting rotation during Spring Training has left them with essentially no financial flexibility with Thursday's Trade Deadline approaching. When Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy suffered season-ending elbow injuries 24 hours apart in March, the Braves reacted in an aggressive manner. Though they had already nearly maxed out their payroll, they opted to give $14.1 million to Ervin Santana, who struggled early but has started to look more like a reliable starter again over the past month.
Santana's presence has allowed the Braves to compensate for the losses of Medlen, Beachy and Gavin Floyd, who suffered his own season-ending elbow injury in June. But even if their rotation remains whole and effective the remainder of the season, the Braves still have to wonder if they will be able to defend their National League East crown if they do not improve their bench and bullpen. The most likely moves the Braves could make before Thursday's 4 p.m. ET deadline will involve either a left-handed reliever or an experienced pinch-hitter. There is a chance the Braves could fill either of these two needs without being handicapped by their financial situation.
With that being said, Braves general manager Frank Wren has proven he is willing and capable of striking a deal while working with similar restrictions. When he needed a leadoff hitter and could not take on any more salary in 2011, he landed Michael Bourn from the Astros, who agreed to pay the remainder of the outfielder's salary that year in exchange for a more attractive return package. Red Sox left-hander Andrew Miller and Cubs southpaw Wesley Wright are among the relievers who have been on the Braves' radar. But there might also be some hesitancy to shop in this market for a second straight year.
Last year's Trade Deadline acquisition of Scott Downs appeared to be a solid and effective move. But Downs' September struggles led him to be left off the postseason roster. Some members of the Braves' organization believe the club's best option to add a left-handed reliever might come in the form of a rejuvenated and improved Luis Avilan, who was sent to Triple-A Gwinnett last week with the hope that he will regain the form he possessed last year. But Avilan entered Sunday having allowed either a hit or a walk to seven of the previous 10 batters he had faced.
Around The League
-- The Colorado Rockies activated first baseman Justin Morneau and left-hander Boone Logan from the 15-day disabled list on Tuesday and called up rookie infielder Cristhian Adames from Triple-A Colorado Springs. Morneau was sidelined with a strained neck and Logan was sidelined because of diverticulitis. In order to make room on the 25-man roster, right-hander Brooks Brown, right-hander Chad Bettis and first baseman Ben Paulsen were optioned to Colorado Springs before the Rockies' game Tuesday night against the Chicago Cubs. Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzski, who's on the 15-day disabled list with a hip flexor strain, will resume baseball-related activities on Wednesday during his rehab work.
-- Washington Nationals right fielder Jayson Werth did not start Tuesday night's game against the Miami Marlins because of a swollen right ankle. Nationals manager Matt Williams said he is hoping Werth can start Wednesday. Outfielder Nate McLouth, who entered Tuesday batting just .180, started in place of Werth.
-- Detroit Tigers third baseman Nick Castellanos was a late scratch for Tuesday night's game against the Chicago White Sox because of a right index finger contusion. Tigers manager Brad Ausmus adjusted his lineup by inserting J.D. Martinez in right field and moving Miguel Cabrera from first base to third, Victor Martinez from designated hitter to first and Torii Hunter from right field to designated hitter.
-- Oakland Athletics center fielder Coco Crisp underwent an MRI in Oakland on Monday, the results of which revealed no additional damage to the sore neck that has plagued him this season. Crisp should avoid a trip to the disabled list and, after additional rest through the balance of the series with the Houston Astros, will be re-evaluated when the club returns home.
-- The Baltimore Orioles held first baseman Chris Davis out of the lineup and sent him home because of illness before Tuesday night's game against the Angels. Orioles manager Buck Showalter said Davis was battling nausea and what goes with it, and that it could be something contagious, so he was sent home. Steve Pearce started at first base in Davis' place.
-- Cincinnati Reds right fielder Jay Bruce was placed on bereavement and right-hander Curtis Partch was recalled from Triple-A Louisville before Tuesday night's game against the Arizona Diamondbacks. It is Partch's fifth stint with the Reds this season. Bruce is eligible to rejoin the team on Friday.
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Betting Notes - Wednesday
National League
•Phillies-Mets - 12:10 PM
--Kendrick is 2-4, 6.70 in his last seven starts.
--Wheeler is 1-0, 1.69 in his last five starts.
--Phillies won four of their last six games.
--Mets won eight of their last ten home games.
--Ten of last fourteen games at Citi Field went over the total.
•Diamondbacks-Reds - 12:35 PM
--Miley is 3-1, 3.51 in his last four starts.
--Simon is 0-2, 6.75 in his last two starts.
--Arizona lost ten of its last fifteen road games.
--Reds lost nine of their last eleven games overall.
--10 of last 14 Miley starts stayed under the total.
•Nationals-Marlins - 12:40 PM
--Roark is 3-0, 1.29 in his last three starts.
--Hand is 2-1, 2.19 in his last four starts.
--Washington lost four of their last six games.
--Marlins won nine of their last ten games.
--Six of last eight Roark starts went over total.
•Pirates-Giants - 3:45 PM
--Morton is 0-1, 5.21 in his last three starts.
--Lincecum is 4-2, 2.14 in his last six starts.
--Pittsburgh won five of its last seven games.
--Giants lost 21 of their last 27 home games.
--Five of last six Morton starts stayed under total.
•Rockies-Cubs - 8:05 PM
--Anderson is 1-0, 0.68 in his last two starts.
--Wood is 0-3, 9.24 in his last five starts.
--Colorado lost 14 of is last 15 road games.
--Cubs lost nine of their last thirteen games overall, but won last two
--Under is 4-1-1 in Anderson starts this season.
•Braves-Dodgers - 10:10 PM
--Wood is 1-2, 4.60 in his last five starts.
--Greinke is 3-2, 2.60 in his last five starts.
--Atlanta won three of its last four games.
--Dodgers won 13 of its last 18 home games.
--Over is 3-1-1 in last five Wood starts.
•Cardinals-Padres - 10:10 PM
--Kelly is 1-1, 6.27 in his last four starts.
--Hahn is 6-1, 1.67 in his last seven starts.
--St Louis won six of its last nine road games.
--Padres lost three of their last four games.
--Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Cardinal road games.
American League
•Athletics-Astros - 2:10 PM
--Hammel is 0-3, 8.53 in three starts for Oakland.
--Keuchel is 1-4, 5.89 in his last six starts.
--A's won five of their last seven games.
--Astros lost eight of their last ten home games.
--Over is 16-8 in last 24 Houston games.
•White Sox-Tigers - 7:05 PM
--Noesi is 3-1, 3.96 in his last four starts.
--Scherzer is 4-1, 2.21 in his last six starts.
--White Sox won four of their last five games.
--Detroit lost eight of its last twelve games.
--Three of last four Noesi starts stayed under the total.
•Mariners-Indians - 7:05 PM
--Hernandez is 3-0, 1.56 in his last seven starts.
--Kluber is 3-0, 2.25 in his last four starts.
--Mariners lost five of their last seven games.
--Cleveland lost seven of its last nine games.
--11 of last 12 Seattle games stayed under the total.
•Angels-Orioles - 7:05 PM
--Richards is 7-1, 1.66 in his last ten starts.
--Gausman is 1-2, 4.50 in his last five starts.
--Angels won four of their last six games.
--Baltimore won six of its last eight games.
--Ten of last fourteen Angel games stayed under total.
•Blue Jays-Red Sox - 7:10 PM
--Buehrle is 0-6, 5.00 in his last nine starts.
--Workman is 0-3, 7.50 in his last three starts.
--Blue Jays won nine of their last eleven games.
--Red Sox lost seven of their last eight games.
--Five of last seven Buehrle starts went over total.
•Yankees-Rangers - 8:05 PM
--Kuroda is 2-0, 3.96 in his last four starts.
--Lewis is 0-3, 11.85 in his last three starts.
--New York lost four of its last six road games.
--Rangers lost 32 of their last 39 games overall.
--Eight of last ten Kuroda starts stayed under total.
•Twins-Royals - 8:10 PM
--Hughes is 2-4, 5.95 in his last six starts.
--Duffy is 0-2, 1.83 in his last three starts; Royals gave him four runs.
--Minnesota lost seven of last 11 games, but is 6-1 in last seven on road.
--Royals won five of their last seven games.
--Eight of last ten Minnesota games stayed under.
Interleague
•Brewers-Rays - 12:10 PM
--Milwaukee lost last six Gallardo starts (0-1, 4.86).
--Price is 6-0, 1.50 in his last six starts.
--Milwaukee lost eight of last ten road games.
--Tampa Bay won eleven of its last twelve games
--Eight of last nine Milwaukee games stayed under.
•Teams' Record When This Starting Pitcher Starts
-- Kendrick 9-11; Wheeler 9-12
-- Miley 11-11; Simon 15-5
-- Roark 11-9; Hand 3-4
-- Morton 10-11; Lincecum 13-8
-- Anderson 2-4; Wood 11-10
-- Wood 5-8; Greinke 12-9
-- Kelly 3-3; Hahn 6-2
-- Hammel 10-7/0-3; Keuchel 10-9
-- Noesi 8-8; Scherzer 15-6
-- Hernandez 15-7; Kluber 13-9
-- Richards 15-6; Gausman 6-3
-- Buehrle 14-7; Workman 2-6
-- Kuroda 10-11; Lewis 8-10
-- Hughes 13-8; Duffy 6-9
-- Gallardo 9-12; Price 14-8
•Umpires Trends
-- Az-Cin-- Last five Cooper games stayed under total.
-- Wsh-Mia-- This is first MLB game for May; I've got nothing on him.
-- Phil-NY-- Last five Meals games went over the total.
-- Col-Chi- Seven of last nine Little games stayed under.
-- Pitt-SF-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Culbreth games.
-- Atl-LA-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Wendelstedt games.
-- StL-SD-- Four of last five Rackley games stayed under.
-- Chi-Det-- Favorites won six of last eight Timmons games.
-- Sea-Clev-- Six of last eight Carapazza games stayed under.
-- LA-Blt-- Last eleven Danley games stayed under total.
-- Tor-Bos-- Underdogs won 11 of last 14 Wegner games.
-- NY-Tex-- 10 of last 15 Kulpa games stayed under total.
-- A's-Hst-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Blaser games.
-- Min-KC-- Over is 8-0-1 in last nine Schrieber games.
-- Mil-TB-- Favorites won six of last seven Tumpane games.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Mariners ace Felix Hernandez is once again a favorite to win the American League CY Young and it is hard to argue for unders bettors who have profited from the golden arm of Hernandez during five straight games that have went under the total with the 11-2 Seattle pitcher on the mound.
Hernandez settled for his second straight no-decision after allowing one run and five hits while fanning 10 in seven innings of Seattle's 2-1 loss to Baltimore on Friday - his fifth consecutive game with eight or more strikeouts. The 28-year-old Venezuelan, who leads the AL in ERA and quality starts (20) while second in strikeouts (173), hasn't lost since a 1-0 setback to Texas on June 11.
Diamond Trends - Wednesday
•SEATTLE is 13-3 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in road games versus a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season.
The average score was SEATTLE 5.1, OPPONENT 3.6.
•TEXAS is 19-4 UNDER (+14.9 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TEXAS 2.7, OPPONENT 3.8.
•MINNESOTA is 0-12 (-14.0 Units) against the run line versus an American League starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 2.8, OPPONENT 7.1.
•ALFREDO SIMON is 15-2 (+14.4 Units) against the money line versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was SIMON 4.3, OPPONENT 2.3.
•COREY KLUBER is 14-4 OVER (+10.0 Units) versus an American League team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was KLUBER 5.4, OPPONENT 5.3.
•GARRETT RICHARDS is 11-2 (+9.9 Units) against the run line versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was RICHARDS 5.3, OPPONENT 2.9.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SEATTLE) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against an excellent starting pitcher (ERA <=3.20) - American League, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games.
(50-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.9%, +33.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -113.3
The average score in these games was: Team 5, Opponent 3.3 (Average run differential = +1.7)
The situation's record this season is: (9-4, +5.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-9, +13.7 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (60-24, +31.7 units).
•Play On - All underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to -135) (TORONTO) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against an excellent starting pitcher (ERA <=3.20) - American League, with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.00 over his last 3 starts.
(47-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.0%, +32.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (37-21 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.5, money line price: -131
The average score in these games was: Team 4.8, Opponent 3.9 (Average run differential = +0.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 37 (63.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-0, +5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-5, +18.9 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (96-37, +44 units).
•Play Over - All teams where the total is 7 or less (SAN DIEGO) - horrible offensive team - scoring <=3.3 runs/game on the season (National League) against opponent terrible offensive team - scoring <=3.8 runs/game on the season (NL).
(56-19 since 1997.) (74.7%, +37.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 6.7, Money Line=+100.7
The average score in these games was: Team 4.2, Opponent 4.4 (Total runs scored = 8.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 41 (51.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (11-4, +7.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (44-14, +30.4 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (53-16, +37.4 units).
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