[h=1]Offseason improvements, declines[/h][h=3]Cavs, Mavs got much better while Heat, Rockets got worse[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Kevin Pelton[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
When the question of "Who got better this summer?" was posed at the NBA Summer League in Las Vegas earlier this month, there was an easy answer: the Cleveland Cavaliers. By signing LeBron James, the Cavaliers landed the offseason's biggest prize.
Finding other teams that improved was more challenging.
To quantify my answer, I turned to the wins above replacement projections I previously used to rank this summer's top free agents. They incorporate both my box score ratings for next season from the SCHOENE projection system and ESPN's real plus-minus ratings, adjusted for age. For each team, I added up these projections for players lost and added via free agency and trades.
These team ratings don't include the draft and are still a work in progress. In particular, the final two top free agents on the market -- Eric Bledsoe of the Phoenix Suns and Greg Monroe of the Detroit Pistons, both restricted -- will swing things when they sign new contracts. Nonetheless, this method offers a good snapshot of which teams have helped themselves the most heading into the 2014-15 season via free agency and trades and which lost the most talent.
Here's a look at the five biggest winners and five biggest losers of the NBA offseason according to WARP projections.
Key addition: LeBron James
Key losses: Luol Deng, Spencer Hawes, C.J. Miles
The Cavaliers lost a pair of starters acquired midseason in Deng and Hawes. They added the best player in the NBA. James alone is projected for 21.1 WARP next season, making it somewhat surprising Cleveland isn't projected to improve more. Blame gutting the bench to make room for James' maximum salary. Officially signing Mike Miller (1.2 WARP) will help a little. Adding Kevin Love (14.6, fourth in the league) would help a lot, no matter the package the Cavaliers send in return.
[h=3]2. Dallas Mavericks | plus-9.1 WARP[/h]
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Key additions: Tyson Chandler, Raymond Felton, Jameer Nelson, Chandler Parsons
Key losses: DeJuan Blair, Jose Calderon, Vince Carter, Samuel Dalembert,Shawn Marion
No team has been more active turning over the roster this offseason than the Mavericks, who could have three new starters on opening night: Chandler, Parsons and perhaps either Felton or Nelson at point guard. The result is potentially a major upgrade. Parsons (7.6 WARP) projects better than any player Dallas lost, and the center swap of Chandler (6.6) for Dalembert (2.4) is a boost. Also, give the Mavericks credit for nailing minor moves such as adding Greg Smith (0.7) and Al-Farouq Aminu (3.4) at the minimum salary. Aminu's signing hasn't been announced yet; when it is, Dallas will actually shoot to No. 1 pending a Love trade.
[h=3]3. Chicago Bulls | plus-4.3 WARP[/h]
Key addition: Pau Gasol
Key loss: D.J. Augustin
Since Nikola Mirotic was a draft pick, this figure includes only Gasol (4.6 WARP) and Aaron Brooks (0.1). Yet the Bulls still rank third in terms of offseason improvement because they lost little of value. Augustin has the best projection of any player they gave up, and he's still projected below 1 WARP because of his poor real plus-minus rating.
[h=3]4. Utah Jazz | plus-3.1 WARP[/h]
Key addition: Trevor Booker
Key loss: Richard Jefferson
After the top three, it's hard to find teams that made dramatic improvements via free agency and trades. The Jazz, like the Bulls, benefit from some addition by subtraction. Of the 10 players who saw action for Utah who are now gone, six project worse than replacement level -- including Jefferson (minus-0.3 WARP). So any contributions the Jazz get from Booker (0.6) and Steve Novak (1.8) are an upgrade.
[h=3]5. Portland Trail Blazers | plus-3.0 WARP[/h]
Key additions: Steve Blake, Chris Kaman
Key loss: Mo Williams
Surprisingly, both WARP and real plus-minus rated Williams (minus-0.2 WARP) at or below replacement level last season. So the Blazers may have upgraded at backup point guard with Blake (1.1) while also adding Kaman (1.3) to their thin bench.
Key additions: Luol Deng, Josh McRoberts
Key losses: Ray Allen, LeBron James
Newton's third law of motion applies to the NBA offseason: For each action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. While James' addition makes the Cavaliers the most improved team, his departure leaves Miami atop the declining list. Deng (5.4 WARP) was a decent Plan B and McRoberts (4.2) a solid addition, but neither can replace the four-time MVP.
[h=3]29. Houston Rockets | minus-11.5 WARP[/h]
Key addition: Trevor Ariza
Key losses: Omer Asik, Jeremy Lin, Chandler Parsons
Continuing the Newton theme, the loss of Parsons is one reason the Mavericks improved and the Rockets declined. Actually, Ariza (6.4 WARP) has a similar projection for next season. Houston will find reserves Asik (3.5) and Lin (4.1), sacrificed in the pursuit of cap space for a failed run at free agent Chris Bosh, more difficult to replace.
[h=3]28. Brooklyn Nets | minus-11.4 WARP[/h]
Key addition: Jarrett Jack
Key losses: Shaun Livingston, Paul Pierce
Pierce (6.1 WARP) projects as one of the best players to change teams this summer, and the Nets added no obvious replacement. They will rely on better health from Andrei Kirilenko and the signing of former draft pick Bojan Bogdanovic (who projects below replacement level) to fill Pierce's minutes. Though Brooklyn did deal for Jack as a replacement for Livingston, buyer beware: Jack (minus-0.7) may struggle to reach replacement-level play, let alone Livingston's standard.
[h=3]27. Detroit Pistons | minus-5.1 WARP[/h]
Key additions: D.J. Augustin, Caron Butler, Jodie Meeks
Key losses: Greg Monroe, Rodney Stuckey
While Stan Van Gundy's first offseason at the helm of the Pistons has produced curious contracts for veterans such as Butler (making $4.5 million for minus-1.1 projected WARP), Detroit hasn't actually declined, provided that Monroe returns (a near-certainty barring a sign-and-trade). Adding his 7.6 projection would put the Pistons near the top of the rankings.
[h=3]26. New York Knicks | minus-4.4 WARP[/h]
Key additions: Jose Calderon, Samuel Dalembert
Key losses: Tyson Chandler, Raymond Felton
Offensively, Calderon and Dalembert should be an upgrade on the departed duo of Chandler and Felton. Defense is a different story entirely. While Chandler shined in real plus-minus, Calderon (2.8 WARP) lags because of his poor defense. As a result, the Knicks appear to have taken a step backward in the short term while building their base of young talent with the additions of Shane Larkin and the draft pick they used on Cleanthony Early.
[h=4]OFFSEASON PROJECTED WARP CHANGES (TRADES AND FREE AGENCY)[/h]
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By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Kevin Pelton[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
When the question of "Who got better this summer?" was posed at the NBA Summer League in Las Vegas earlier this month, there was an easy answer: the Cleveland Cavaliers. By signing LeBron James, the Cavaliers landed the offseason's biggest prize.
Finding other teams that improved was more challenging.
To quantify my answer, I turned to the wins above replacement projections I previously used to rank this summer's top free agents. They incorporate both my box score ratings for next season from the SCHOENE projection system and ESPN's real plus-minus ratings, adjusted for age. For each team, I added up these projections for players lost and added via free agency and trades.
These team ratings don't include the draft and are still a work in progress. In particular, the final two top free agents on the market -- Eric Bledsoe of the Phoenix Suns and Greg Monroe of the Detroit Pistons, both restricted -- will swing things when they sign new contracts. Nonetheless, this method offers a good snapshot of which teams have helped themselves the most heading into the 2014-15 season via free agency and trades and which lost the most talent.
Here's a look at the five biggest winners and five biggest losers of the NBA offseason according to WARP projections.
[h=3]Biggest improvements[/h][h=3]1. Cleveland Cavaliers | plus-9.9 WARP[/h]
Key addition: LeBron James
Key losses: Luol Deng, Spencer Hawes, C.J. Miles
The Cavaliers lost a pair of starters acquired midseason in Deng and Hawes. They added the best player in the NBA. James alone is projected for 21.1 WARP next season, making it somewhat surprising Cleveland isn't projected to improve more. Blame gutting the bench to make room for James' maximum salary. Officially signing Mike Miller (1.2 WARP) will help a little. Adding Kevin Love (14.6, fourth in the league) would help a lot, no matter the package the Cavaliers send in return.
[h=3]2. Dallas Mavericks | plus-9.1 WARP[/h]
Key additions: Tyson Chandler, Raymond Felton, Jameer Nelson, Chandler Parsons
Key losses: DeJuan Blair, Jose Calderon, Vince Carter, Samuel Dalembert,Shawn Marion
No team has been more active turning over the roster this offseason than the Mavericks, who could have three new starters on opening night: Chandler, Parsons and perhaps either Felton or Nelson at point guard. The result is potentially a major upgrade. Parsons (7.6 WARP) projects better than any player Dallas lost, and the center swap of Chandler (6.6) for Dalembert (2.4) is a boost. Also, give the Mavericks credit for nailing minor moves such as adding Greg Smith (0.7) and Al-Farouq Aminu (3.4) at the minimum salary. Aminu's signing hasn't been announced yet; when it is, Dallas will actually shoot to No. 1 pending a Love trade.
[h=3]3. Chicago Bulls | plus-4.3 WARP[/h]
Key addition: Pau Gasol
Key loss: D.J. Augustin
Since Nikola Mirotic was a draft pick, this figure includes only Gasol (4.6 WARP) and Aaron Brooks (0.1). Yet the Bulls still rank third in terms of offseason improvement because they lost little of value. Augustin has the best projection of any player they gave up, and he's still projected below 1 WARP because of his poor real plus-minus rating.
[h=3]4. Utah Jazz | plus-3.1 WARP[/h]
Key addition: Trevor Booker
Key loss: Richard Jefferson
After the top three, it's hard to find teams that made dramatic improvements via free agency and trades. The Jazz, like the Bulls, benefit from some addition by subtraction. Of the 10 players who saw action for Utah who are now gone, six project worse than replacement level -- including Jefferson (minus-0.3 WARP). So any contributions the Jazz get from Booker (0.6) and Steve Novak (1.8) are an upgrade.
[h=3]5. Portland Trail Blazers | plus-3.0 WARP[/h]
Key additions: Steve Blake, Chris Kaman
Key loss: Mo Williams
Surprisingly, both WARP and real plus-minus rated Williams (minus-0.2 WARP) at or below replacement level last season. So the Blazers may have upgraded at backup point guard with Blake (1.1) while also adding Kaman (1.3) to their thin bench.
[h=3]Biggest declines[/h][h=3]30. Miami Heat | minus-12.4 WARP[/h]
Key additions: Luol Deng, Josh McRoberts
Key losses: Ray Allen, LeBron James
Newton's third law of motion applies to the NBA offseason: For each action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. While James' addition makes the Cavaliers the most improved team, his departure leaves Miami atop the declining list. Deng (5.4 WARP) was a decent Plan B and McRoberts (4.2) a solid addition, but neither can replace the four-time MVP.
[h=3]29. Houston Rockets | minus-11.5 WARP[/h]
Key addition: Trevor Ariza
Key losses: Omer Asik, Jeremy Lin, Chandler Parsons
Continuing the Newton theme, the loss of Parsons is one reason the Mavericks improved and the Rockets declined. Actually, Ariza (6.4 WARP) has a similar projection for next season. Houston will find reserves Asik (3.5) and Lin (4.1), sacrificed in the pursuit of cap space for a failed run at free agent Chris Bosh, more difficult to replace.
[h=3]28. Brooklyn Nets | minus-11.4 WARP[/h]
Key addition: Jarrett Jack
Key losses: Shaun Livingston, Paul Pierce
Pierce (6.1 WARP) projects as one of the best players to change teams this summer, and the Nets added no obvious replacement. They will rely on better health from Andrei Kirilenko and the signing of former draft pick Bojan Bogdanovic (who projects below replacement level) to fill Pierce's minutes. Though Brooklyn did deal for Jack as a replacement for Livingston, buyer beware: Jack (minus-0.7) may struggle to reach replacement-level play, let alone Livingston's standard.
[h=3]27. Detroit Pistons | minus-5.1 WARP[/h]
Key additions: D.J. Augustin, Caron Butler, Jodie Meeks
Key losses: Greg Monroe, Rodney Stuckey
While Stan Van Gundy's first offseason at the helm of the Pistons has produced curious contracts for veterans such as Butler (making $4.5 million for minus-1.1 projected WARP), Detroit hasn't actually declined, provided that Monroe returns (a near-certainty barring a sign-and-trade). Adding his 7.6 projection would put the Pistons near the top of the rankings.
[h=3]26. New York Knicks | minus-4.4 WARP[/h]
Key additions: Jose Calderon, Samuel Dalembert
Key losses: Tyson Chandler, Raymond Felton
Offensively, Calderon and Dalembert should be an upgrade on the departed duo of Chandler and Felton. Defense is a different story entirely. While Chandler shined in real plus-minus, Calderon (2.8 WARP) lags because of his poor defense. As a result, the Knicks appear to have taken a step backward in the short term while building their base of young talent with the additions of Shane Larkin and the draft pick they used on Cleanthony Early.
[h=4]OFFSEASON PROJECTED WARP CHANGES (TRADES AND FREE AGENCY)[/h]
| Team | Lost | Added | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland | 9.6 | 19.5 | 9.9 |
| Dallas | 14.1 | 23.2 | 9.1 |
| Chicago | 0.3 | 4.6 | 4.3 |
| Utah | -0.7 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
| Portland | -0.5 | 2.4 | 3.0 |
| Charlotte | 4.6 | 7.1 | 2.5 |
| New Orleans | 2.4 | 4.7 | 2.4 |
| Toronto | 1.8 | 3.8 | 2.1 |
| Orlando | 1.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 |
| Memphis | 3.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 |
| L.A. Clippers | 2.9 | 4.5 | 1.6 |
| Philadelphia | -1.2 | 0.0 | 1.2 |
| San Antonio | -0.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| Washington | 7.3 | 7.9 | 0.6 |
| Oklahoma City | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Boston | 1.9 | 2.2 | 0.3 |
| Minnesota | 0.3 | 0.0 | -0.3 |
| Golden State | 2.5 | 1.7 | -0.9 |
| Denver | 1.1 | 0.1 | -1.0 |
| Phoenix | 14.3 | 11.4 | -2.9 |
| Indiana | 5.9 | 2.9 | -3.0 |
| Milwaukee | 3.6 | 0.0 | -3.6 |
| Sacramento | 6.2 | 2.5 | -3.8 |
| L.A. Lakers | 9.3 | 5.1 | -4.2 |
| Atlanta | 6.8 | 2.5 | -4.3 |
| New York | 11.1 | 6.6 | -4.4 |
| Detroit | 8.4 | 3.4 | -5.1 |
| Brooklyn | 10.5 | -0.9 | -11.4 |
| Houston | 18.2 | 6.7 | -11.5 |
| Miami | 23.8 | 11.4 | -12.4 |
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