[h=1]PGA Championship betting guide[/h][h=3]A look at the best value bets, matchups and props available at Valhalla[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Alf Musketa[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
Golf betting is at an all-time high, and sportsbooks are receiving heavy action. But lately the sportsbooks have been getting killed.
Why? It's due to the horrendously bad form (and health) of none other than Tiger Woods.
Savvy golf handicappers everywhere are lining up at the windows to bet against Tiger and not on him, laying prices of minus-200 or more on any matchup available.<offer></offer>
What can we expect this week at the 96th PGA Championship? If he plays, don't expect to see Tiger at too many outlets for head-to-head matchups. We definitely will see future-book wagering or betting to win. No doubt the sportsbooks will have odds, and there will be "squares" putting something down to root for their favorite golfer. Regardless, I wouldn't take Tiger to win the PGA Championship at less than 10,000-1.
The PGA Championship boasts the best field of the year with 108 of the top 109 players in the world ready to tackle Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky. We saw Valhalla host the 2008 Ryder Cup, as well as both the 1996 and 2000 PGA Championships. Who can forget Tiger defeating unheralded Bob May in a playoff in 2000? That year, the yardage was 7,167 yards and a par 72; this week, the course will stretch out to 7,458 yards and play at a par 71. Valhalla has eight holes with either water hazards, pot bunkers or redesigned or renovated greens since 2011, and on top of that, players will have to deal with the high humidity of Northern Kentucky.
Here are my contender and long-shot selections to win the PGA Championship, along with the best head-to-head matchups and prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of William Hill US Sports Book in Las Vegas.
[h=3]Contenders[/h]
Rory McIlroy (9-2)
After winning the WGC Bridgestone Invitational last week and his third major, the Open Championship, last month, McIlroy is back to being the No. 1 player in the Official World Golf Rankings. Perhaps the sportsbooks should start looking at McIlroy as they used to when posting odds on Tiger at 3-1 (or less). It's pretty obvious the kid is the best player on the planet and at 25 is peaking right now. If the conditions are the least bit soft, McIlroy will win again given the way he's driving the golf ball (something I haven't personally seen sinceGreg Norman's off-the-tee dominance).
Phil Mickelson (22-1)
Yes, Mickelson doesn't have a top-10 finish on the PGA Tour this season. But did you know he has three top-11 finishes and seven top-25 finishes this season, along with two top-10 finishes here at Valhalla in the PGA Championship (with an eighth-place finish in 1996 and a T-9 in 2000)? Last week in the final round at Firestone he fired a season-best 62. And as we have mentioned in our handicapping articles, when Mickelson plays well the week prior to a major, he is a major threat. He was under the weather, sick and dragging his feet last week and nevertheless played well.
I think this is Phil's best chance by far to capture a major this year, given the circumstances and confidence he has now. He went straight to Valhalla on Monday after Firestone and hit balls for four hours on the range. He's obviously feeling better, and you've got to love his enthusiasm.
Keegan Bradley (25-1)
Bradley finished with a solid T-4 last week, and after posting 10 scores in the 60s through 12 rounds (plus being a former PGA Championship winner), I see him finishing high on the leaderboard at Valhalla. He led the field in putting last week, no doubt due to going back to his trusted belly putter.
Thomas Bjorn (125-1)
Bjorn is having one of the best years of his career, ranking second in the Race to Dubai behind McIlroy. He has a win, six top-10 and 11 top-25 finishes. Plus, he finished eighth at the Masters. What we like most from Bjorn this season is his positive attitude and exceptional ball striking. And last week instead of going through the motions in a no-cut event and collecting a check, he did the opposite, posting three 69s and a round of 68 to finish T-15.
Kevin Na (150-1)
Na is looking to win his first major and this tournament has a way of producing many first-time winners, as four of the past five PGA champions fit that trend. Valhalla might come down to a putting contest, and Na ranks in the top 30 instrokes gained putting. He showed strong form and persistence finishing 12th at the U.S. Open, and last week closed well with rounds of 66 and 67. Na also tends to play well late in the season.
J.B. Holmes (75-1)
You might say 75-1 is not a long shot, but I'll disagree because Holmes has tremendous value and should be closer to 40-1 in my opinion. The former UK standout and Kentucky native has played this course more than any other player in this field except Kenny Perry. Holmes, who has overcome myriad health issues (including two brain surgeries) over the past few years, won the Wells Fargo Championship in May at Quail Hollow Golf Club -- a course that will host the PGA Championship in 2017.
I watched Kaymer play with Tiger in the first two rounds of the WGC Bridgestone Invitational. He looked tired, his swing was not on plane and I think after winning both the U.S. Open and the Players Championship -- the two biggest tournament first prizes on the PGA Tour -- Kaymer's season is set. He will look forward to the Ryder Cup in late September.
G-Mac, on the other hand, is much hungrier and eager to win his second major. His game looks to be rounding into top form, as he has posted three straight top-10 finishes in his past three starts. He has the reputation and tactical game of playing the majors/toughest courses well. This matchup looks like two players trending in opposite directions and it is my top matchup selection of the week.
Ryan Moore (-145) over Hunter Mahan
This matchup leads me to a simple handicapping method that rarely gets talked about. Sometimes golf bettors get too caught up in statistics and a "horses-for-courses" trend that leads them to make betting mistakes. The No. 1 key factor in betting golf matchups is and always will be current form.
For this wager I looked at the past five tournaments in which both of these players participated: the Memorial, U.S. Open, Travelers Championship, Open Championship and last week at Firestone. Mahan, in order of event, finished T-28, missed cut, MC, T-32 and T-15. Moore finished better in each and every tournament, with a T-19, T-48, T-5, T-12 and T-8. If this matchup were available each of those weeks, Moore would have gone 5-0 -- an obvious sign that his overall game is better on any track.
Thomas Bjorn (-140) over Ian Poulter
We talked about being keen on Bjorn in the future-book odds mentioned above. However, this bet is much more of a play against Poulter, who is having a dreadful season with only one top-10 finish on the PGA Tour this year. Also noteworthy is that he has been playing through a wrist injury. His scores indicate the struggles he is having, as he hasn't broken 70 in 10 straight rounds, including last week's no-cut contest.
If the potential thunderstorms happen Friday and Saturday, the players will be taken off the golf course rather than play through it, which should result in ultra-soft conditions that the best golfers in the world will exploit. Valhalla has plenty of room to bomb tee shots; rather, it's the undulating greens that are the key. If they become target practice, then this line of 270.5 (13.5 under par) is there for the taking. The PGA of America always sets the course up fair and the rough is not very punishing, thus we see a potential 64, a couple of 65s and plenty of birdies, putting us on the under.
36-hole cut score UNDER 144.5 (-110)
This week the cut for the PGA Championship is the top 70 and ties. This field has all of the top players minus Dustin Johnson. Parity is common in every sport these days, and on the PGA Tour it is no different, as the fields get deeper and the cut line has increased a full 2 strokes in the past four years. The gaps between the cut totals and scores are significantly smaller. There used to be an average of 8.75 players between number/scores before the cut; now we are seeing an average of 13.5. And with a field of this quality, 15 or more should show at a major. Under 144.5 is 2.5 over par, so it would take a cut line of plus-3 to beat us.
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Alf Musketa[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
Golf betting is at an all-time high, and sportsbooks are receiving heavy action. But lately the sportsbooks have been getting killed.
Why? It's due to the horrendously bad form (and health) of none other than Tiger Woods.
Savvy golf handicappers everywhere are lining up at the windows to bet against Tiger and not on him, laying prices of minus-200 or more on any matchup available.<offer></offer>
What can we expect this week at the 96th PGA Championship? If he plays, don't expect to see Tiger at too many outlets for head-to-head matchups. We definitely will see future-book wagering or betting to win. No doubt the sportsbooks will have odds, and there will be "squares" putting something down to root for their favorite golfer. Regardless, I wouldn't take Tiger to win the PGA Championship at less than 10,000-1.
The PGA Championship boasts the best field of the year with 108 of the top 109 players in the world ready to tackle Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky. We saw Valhalla host the 2008 Ryder Cup, as well as both the 1996 and 2000 PGA Championships. Who can forget Tiger defeating unheralded Bob May in a playoff in 2000? That year, the yardage was 7,167 yards and a par 72; this week, the course will stretch out to 7,458 yards and play at a par 71. Valhalla has eight holes with either water hazards, pot bunkers or redesigned or renovated greens since 2011, and on top of that, players will have to deal with the high humidity of Northern Kentucky.
Here are my contender and long-shot selections to win the PGA Championship, along with the best head-to-head matchups and prop bets.
Note: Odds courtesy of William Hill US Sports Book in Las Vegas.
[h=3]Contenders[/h]
Rory McIlroy (9-2)
After winning the WGC Bridgestone Invitational last week and his third major, the Open Championship, last month, McIlroy is back to being the No. 1 player in the Official World Golf Rankings. Perhaps the sportsbooks should start looking at McIlroy as they used to when posting odds on Tiger at 3-1 (or less). It's pretty obvious the kid is the best player on the planet and at 25 is peaking right now. If the conditions are the least bit soft, McIlroy will win again given the way he's driving the golf ball (something I haven't personally seen sinceGreg Norman's off-the-tee dominance).
Phil Mickelson (22-1)
Yes, Mickelson doesn't have a top-10 finish on the PGA Tour this season. But did you know he has three top-11 finishes and seven top-25 finishes this season, along with two top-10 finishes here at Valhalla in the PGA Championship (with an eighth-place finish in 1996 and a T-9 in 2000)? Last week in the final round at Firestone he fired a season-best 62. And as we have mentioned in our handicapping articles, when Mickelson plays well the week prior to a major, he is a major threat. He was under the weather, sick and dragging his feet last week and nevertheless played well.
I think this is Phil's best chance by far to capture a major this year, given the circumstances and confidence he has now. He went straight to Valhalla on Monday after Firestone and hit balls for four hours on the range. He's obviously feeling better, and you've got to love his enthusiasm.
Keegan Bradley (25-1)
Bradley finished with a solid T-4 last week, and after posting 10 scores in the 60s through 12 rounds (plus being a former PGA Championship winner), I see him finishing high on the leaderboard at Valhalla. He led the field in putting last week, no doubt due to going back to his trusted belly putter.
[h=3]Long shots[/h]Thomas Bjorn (125-1)
Bjorn is having one of the best years of his career, ranking second in the Race to Dubai behind McIlroy. He has a win, six top-10 and 11 top-25 finishes. Plus, he finished eighth at the Masters. What we like most from Bjorn this season is his positive attitude and exceptional ball striking. And last week instead of going through the motions in a no-cut event and collecting a check, he did the opposite, posting three 69s and a round of 68 to finish T-15.
Kevin Na (150-1)
Na is looking to win his first major and this tournament has a way of producing many first-time winners, as four of the past five PGA champions fit that trend. Valhalla might come down to a putting contest, and Na ranks in the top 30 instrokes gained putting. He showed strong form and persistence finishing 12th at the U.S. Open, and last week closed well with rounds of 66 and 67. Na also tends to play well late in the season.
J.B. Holmes (75-1)
You might say 75-1 is not a long shot, but I'll disagree because Holmes has tremendous value and should be closer to 40-1 in my opinion. The former UK standout and Kentucky native has played this course more than any other player in this field except Kenny Perry. Holmes, who has overcome myriad health issues (including two brain surgeries) over the past few years, won the Wells Fargo Championship in May at Quail Hollow Golf Club -- a course that will host the PGA Championship in 2017.
[h=3]Matchups[/h]Graeme McDowell (-140) over Martin KaymerI watched Kaymer play with Tiger in the first two rounds of the WGC Bridgestone Invitational. He looked tired, his swing was not on plane and I think after winning both the U.S. Open and the Players Championship -- the two biggest tournament first prizes on the PGA Tour -- Kaymer's season is set. He will look forward to the Ryder Cup in late September.
G-Mac, on the other hand, is much hungrier and eager to win his second major. His game looks to be rounding into top form, as he has posted three straight top-10 finishes in his past three starts. He has the reputation and tactical game of playing the majors/toughest courses well. This matchup looks like two players trending in opposite directions and it is my top matchup selection of the week.
Ryan Moore (-145) over Hunter Mahan
This matchup leads me to a simple handicapping method that rarely gets talked about. Sometimes golf bettors get too caught up in statistics and a "horses-for-courses" trend that leads them to make betting mistakes. The No. 1 key factor in betting golf matchups is and always will be current form.
For this wager I looked at the past five tournaments in which both of these players participated: the Memorial, U.S. Open, Travelers Championship, Open Championship and last week at Firestone. Mahan, in order of event, finished T-28, missed cut, MC, T-32 and T-15. Moore finished better in each and every tournament, with a T-19, T-48, T-5, T-12 and T-8. If this matchup were available each of those weeks, Moore would have gone 5-0 -- an obvious sign that his overall game is better on any track.
Thomas Bjorn (-140) over Ian Poulter
We talked about being keen on Bjorn in the future-book odds mentioned above. However, this bet is much more of a play against Poulter, who is having a dreadful season with only one top-10 finish on the PGA Tour this year. Also noteworthy is that he has been playing through a wrist injury. His scores indicate the struggles he is having, as he hasn't broken 70 in 10 straight rounds, including last week's no-cut contest.
[h=3]Props[/h]Winning score UNDER 270.5 (-110)If the potential thunderstorms happen Friday and Saturday, the players will be taken off the golf course rather than play through it, which should result in ultra-soft conditions that the best golfers in the world will exploit. Valhalla has plenty of room to bomb tee shots; rather, it's the undulating greens that are the key. If they become target practice, then this line of 270.5 (13.5 under par) is there for the taking. The PGA of America always sets the course up fair and the rough is not very punishing, thus we see a potential 64, a couple of 65s and plenty of birdies, putting us on the under.
36-hole cut score UNDER 144.5 (-110)
This week the cut for the PGA Championship is the top 70 and ties. This field has all of the top players minus Dustin Johnson. Parity is common in every sport these days, and on the PGA Tour it is no different, as the fields get deeper and the cut line has increased a full 2 strokes in the past four years. The gaps between the cut totals and scores are significantly smaller. There used to be an average of 8.75 players between number/scores before the cut; now we are seeing an average of 13.5. And with a field of this quality, 15 or more should show at a major. Under 144.5 is 2.5 over par, so it would take a cut line of plus-3 to beat us.
