MLB systems

rolltide · Aug 7, 2014

if you're interested in systems there are a few decent ones in play today:

first you have an in-form NL pitcher walking few batters up against a terrible pitcher.

season >= 2007 and o:STDSERA >= 5.44 and o:league = NL and C and tS(hits) / tS(at bats) <= 0.250 and s:SWA <= 1 and ss:SWA <= 1 ...

SU:	65-22 (1.61, 74.7%)	avg line: -118.5 / 106.9	on / against: +$4,472 / -$4,801	ROI: +40.9% / -49.5%
RL:	51-35 (1.26, 59.3%)	avg line: -103.8 / -110.4	on / against: +$1,773 / -$2,256	ROI: +15.9% / -19.6%
OU:	39-40-7 (0.02, 49.4%)	avg total: 8.2	over / under: -$360 / -$290	ROI: -3.9% / -3.0%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	4.9	8.9	0.6	3.8	7.1	9.8	6.3	7.5
Opp	3.3	7.6	0.8	2.7	7.4	9.7	6.3	6.7

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 07, 2014		Thu	away	Cubs	Kyle Hendricks - R	Rockies	Yohan Flande - L									-110	10.5

then you've got 2 plays on interleague small favs, light HR-hitting teams, after a big offensive night:

tA(HR) <= 0.911 and p:runs >= 8 and 100 >= line >= -150 and ...

SU:	33-10 (2.21, 76.7%)	avg line: -123.6 / 113.6	on / against: +$2,064 / -$2,211	ROI: +38.8% / -50.4%
RL:	26-17 (1.20, 60.5%)	avg line: 135.8 / -149.8	on / against: +$1,988 / -$2,281	ROI: +40.7% / -33.4%
OU:	22-21-0 (0.07, 51.2%)	avg total: 8.1	over / under: -$135 / -$285	ROI: -2.8% / -6.1%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	5.2	8.7	0.5	3.6	7.0	10.1	5.3	6.4
Opp	3.0	7.7	0.6	2.7	7.7	9.7	5.0	6.8

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 07, 2014		Thu	home	Phillies	Roberto Hernandez - R	Astros	Collin McHugh - R									-115	8.0
Aug 07, 2014		Thu	home	Reds	Homer Bailey - R	Indians	TJ House - L									-125	7.5

ReBorn · Aug 7, 2014

Holy shit a rolltide sighting!!!! Hahaha. What's up bruh,!!!! Good to see u in here! Now I'm not gonna lie. I'm a tad bit confused on which teams I should be taking.

sunshine11 · Aug 7, 2014

I have no idea what the plays are either.

Offshores · Aug 7, 2014

Looks like Cubs ML, Phillies ML, Reds ML based on lines

rolltide · Aug 7, 2014

the teams to the left (cubs, phils, reds) are always the ones that the records are associated it. so cubs are in a situation that is 65-22 with average win 4.9-3.3 runs per game. phils and reds are in a interleague spot that has produced a 33-10 record in last 43 games with avg win of 2.2 rpg (5.2-3.0)

ReBorn · Aug 7, 2014

Thank u rolltide!

tripleh · Aug 7, 2014

Thanks roll

TyBounce · Aug 7, 2014

Thanks RT.

finite · Aug 7, 2014

Pitching change in Philadelphia

nsight · Aug 7, 2014

finite said:
Pitching change in Philadelphia

Hernandez traded to the Dodgers

Biz · Aug 8, 2014

Great job RT

Steiner69eR · Aug 8, 2014

Always great to see you, Roll

rolltide · Aug 8, 2014

Fri systems...

play on home team in first game of series when both are off blowout losses. dbacks in the sweet spot as well since they've lost 3+ straight. both queries are below: run lines are especially profitable ...

FGS and p:margin <= -4 and op:margin <= -4 and H and season > 2010 ... and pp:L and ppp:L

SU:	23-8 (2.06, 74.2%)	avg line: -108.3 / -101.7	on / against: +$1,623 / -$1,778	ROI: +44.2% / -49.8%
RL:	23-8 (1.92, 74.2%)	avg line: 117.1 / -129.7	on / against: +$2,095 / -$2,259	ROI: +57.8% / -51.8%
OU:	11-16-4 (0.02, 40.7%)	avg total: 8.1	over / under: -$615 / +$425	ROI: -18.0% / +12.5%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	5.1	9.3	0.4	3.3	6.6	9.8	5.3	6.6
Opp	3.0	7.5	0.7	2.7	8.1	8.6	5.8	6.4

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 08, 2014		Fri	home	Diamondbacks	Chase Anderson - R	Rockies	Tyler Matzek - L									-126	8.5

FGS and p:margin <= -4 and op:margin <= -4 and H and season > 2010 ...

SU:	55-28 (1.33, 66.3%)	avg line: -109.5 / -100.5	on / against: +$2,580 / -$2,989	ROI: +26.5% / -32.1%
RL:	54-29 (1.09, 65.1%)	avg line: 119.8 / -133.1	on / against: +$3,916 / -$4,333	ROI: +39.9% / -35.7%
OU:	35-41-7 (0.16, 46.1%)	avg total: 8.0	over / under: -$950 / +$250	ROI: -10.4% / +2.7%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	4.8	8.6	0.5	3.1	7.0	10.2	5.3	6.4
Opp	3.4	8.1	0.7	2.7	7.6	9.6	5.0	6.7

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 08, 2014		Fri	home	Diamondbacks	Chase Anderson - R	Rockies	Tyler Matzek - L									-126	8.5

play UNDER after a 1-run when when opposing starter went 8+ innings

p:margin = 1 and po:SIP >= 8 and p:line > -120 and p:line ....

SU:	67-84 (-0.47, 44.4%)	avg line: -100.7 / -110.2	on / against: -$1,859 / +$1,083	ROI: -10.7% / +5.9%
RL:	73-77 (-0.23, 48.7%)	avg line: -114.7 / 101.5	on / against: -$1,685 / +$1,002	ROI: -8.3% / +5.3%
OU:	46-100-5 (-0.53, 31.5%)	avg total: 8.0	over / under: -$6,310 / +$4,865	ROI: -38.4% / +29.0%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	3.5	8.0	0.6	2.9	7.2	9.3	6.5	6.7
Opp	4.0	8.6	0.5	2.9	7.1	9.8	6.3	6.7

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 08, 2014		Fri	home	Orioles	Chris Tillman - R	Cardinals	Justin Masterson - R									-135	8.5

this one is rather detailed but essentially you're playing on an AL favorite off a win against a pitcher that had a great last outing. 15-4 this year and very solid overall...not bad for a run line either

o:STDSERA > 0.00 and -145 > line >= -185 ... league = AL and os:SRA <= 1 and STDSERA < 5.20 and tS(hits) / tS(at bats) >= 0.228 ... and p:W

SU:	99-29 (2.21, 77.3%)	avg line: -161.7 / 151.7	on / against: +$5,294 / -$5,584	ROI: +25.6% / -43.6%
RL:	70-51 (0.57, 57.9%)	avg line: 127.6 / -139.3	on / against: +$3,814 / -$4,627	ROI: +31.5% / -27.5%
OU:	62-61-4 (0.82, 50.4%)	avg total: 8.3	over / under: -$465 / -$830	ROI: -3.4% / -5.9%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	5.6	9.8	0.5	3.8	6.2	9.7	6.5	7.5
Opp	3.4	7.9	0.6	2.5	8.2	9.0	7.0	6.5

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 08, 2014		Fri	home	Mariners	Hisashi Iwakuma - R	White Sox	Jose Quintana - L									-165	6.5

another one against the white sox. avoid poor hitting AL teams in a pitching duel. not the greatest ROI, +112%, but is 46-19 in 2014 including 13-2 L15. seattle in a double worth a look

0.215 <= tS(hits) / tS(at bats) <= 0.265 and FC and -215 <= line <= -134 and oS:SRA <= 1 ...

SU:	279-128 (1.39, 68.6%)	avg line: -158.1 / 146.2	on / against: +$7,907 / -$9,409	ROI: +12.3% / -23.1%
RL:	180-193 (-0.16, 48.3%)	avg line: 131.4 / -143.2	on / against: +$4,064 / -$6,279	ROI: +10.8% / -11.8%
OU:	181-208-18 (0.27, 46.5%)	avg total: 8.3	over / under: -$5,520 / +$850	ROI: -12.1% / +1.9%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	5.0	9.2	0.6	3.6	6.2	9.7	7.0	7.2
Opp	3.6	8.1	0.7	2.8	7.9	9.4	7.4	6.6

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 08, 2014		Fri	home	Mariners	Hisashi Iwakuma - R	White Sox	Jose Quintana - L									-165	6.5

avoid poor-to-average hitting big AL dogs in a good pitching matchup. this is 60-13 all-time and 5-1 this year...

tS(hits) / tS(at bats) <= 0.260 and league = AL and AD and o:STDSERA <= 3.50 and STDSERA <= 4.10 and line >= 175

SU:	13-60 (-3.10, 17.8%)	avg line: 203.1 / -239.1	on / against: -$3,430 / +$2,980	ROI: -47.0% / +17.1%
RL:	23-37 (-1.38, 38.3%)	avg line: -101.9 / -108.1	on / against: -$1,602 / +$1,288	ROI: -25.1% / +19.6%
OU:	36-32-5 (0.19, 52.9%)	avg total: 8.4	over / under: +$145 / -$785	ROI: +1.8% / -9.6%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	2.7	7.1	0.7	2.2	8.6	10.4	6.5	6.1
Opp	5.8	9.8	0.5	3.7	4.8	9.6	6.4	6.8

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 08, 2014		Fri	away	Twins	Kyle Gibson - R	Athletics	Scott Kazmir - L									185	7.0

play on home dog with a starter that K's a lot of hitters. only 113% all-time but NL dogs are killing it this year at 131% ROI. gotta watch the line in this one though as it's moving toward atlanta and they must be a home dog

7.22 >= sA(SSO) > 5.0 and HD and 0.207 <= tS(hits) / tS(at bats) <= 0.260 and ... STDSERA > 1.95 and season = 2014 and league = NL

SU:	24-15 (0.46, 61.5%)	avg line: 114.8 / -124.8	on / against: +$1,229 / -$1,464	ROI: +31.4% / -30.0%
RL:	27-12 (1.96, 69.2%)	avg line: -152.8 / 140.7	on / against: +$883 / -$1,026	ROI: +14.9% / -26.3%
OU:	18-19-2 (0.10, 48.6%)	avg total: 7.3	over / under: -$205 / -$105	ROI: -4.9% / -2.4%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	3.9	8.5	0.3	2.5	8.0	9.4	4.4	6.4
Opp	3.5	8.1	0.4	2.8	8.4	8.2	4.5	6.5

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 08, 2014		Fri	home	Braves	Ervin Santana - R	Nationals	Stephen Strasburg - R									100	6.5

will hit "post reply" now and see how crazy this looks on the thread

ReBorn · Aug 8, 2014

Now I know u said it's the teams to the left but in this instance u take Oakland vs twins correct?

TyBounce · Aug 8, 2014

Thanks Roll.

rolltide · Aug 8, 2014

ReBorn said:
Now I know u said it's the teams to the left but in this instance u take Oakland vs twins correct?

yes. that record, 13-60, is attributed to the team on the left (MIN). i guess i could run it the opposite way....give me a minute... could go with RL on SEA or SEA/OAK double +135 on that one ... let me reverse the numbers and post it to keep consistent

rolltide · Aug 8, 2014

because of the line consideration i'd have to back into it to switch the dog 175 to the fav version but this is close enough (actually adds 7 wins to the fav)

otS(hits) / otS(at bats) <= 0.260 and league = AL and HF and o:STDSERA <= 4.10 and STDSERA <= 3.50 and line < -200

SU:	67-13 (3.10, 83.8%)	avg line: -236.8 / 200.8	on / against: +$3,675 / -$4,125	ROI: +19.4% / -51.6%
RL:	36-28 (1.34, 56.2%)	avg line: -107.9 / -102.4	on / against: +$640 / -$986	ROI: +9.2% / -14.5%
OU:	34-39-7 (-0.22, 46.6%)	avg total: 8.4	over / under: -$820 / +$150	ROI: -9.4% / +1.7%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	5.7	9.7	0.5	3.9	5.0	9.6	6.8	7.1
Opp	2.6	6.9	0.7	2.0	8.3	10.1	6.8	5.7

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 08, 2014		Fri	home	Athletics	Scott Kazmir - L	Twins	Kyle Gibson - R									-225	7.0

using the new parameters that system is 7-1 this year...wins by 3.2 rpg

otS(hits) / otS(at bats) <= 0.260 and league = AL and HF and o:STDSERA <= 4.10 and STDSERA <= 3.50 and line < -200 and season = 2014

SU:	7-1 (3.12, 87.5%)	avg line: -223.3 / 191.1	on / against: +$450 / -$490	ROI: +25.2% / -61.2%
RL:	5-3 (1.62, 62.5%)	avg line: -101.7 / -106.8	on / against: +$208 / -$251	ROI: +25.1% / -28.9%
OU:	4-3-1 (0.19, 57.1%)	avg total: 7.4	over / under: +$95 / -$145	ROI: +11.2% / -16.0%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	5.4	9.1	1.0	4.5	6.4	10.6	5.0	7.6
Opp	2.2	6.8	0.5	2.4	8.9	10.5	3.9	6.6

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 08, 2014		Fri	home	Athletics	Scott Kazmir - L	Twins	Kyle Gibson - R									-225	7.0
Aug 04, 2014	box	Mon	home	Indians	Corey Kluber - R	Reds	Alfredo Simon - R	7-1	6	W	1.0	O	10-8	1-0	6-0	-205	7.0	9
Jul 06, 2014	box	Sun	home	Angels	Garrett Richards - R	Astros	Collin McHugh - R	6-1	5	W	-1.0	U	8-7	0-2	5-0	-220	8.0	9
May 10, 2014	box	Sat	home	Tigers	Max Scherzer - R	Twins	Kyle Gibson - R	9-3	6	W	4.0	O	11-8	1-2	6-0	-260	8.0	9
Apr 21, 2014	box	Mon	home	Mariners	Felix Hernandez - R	Astros	Dallas Keuchel - L	2-7	-5	L	2.5	O	7-9	2-0	0-5	-250	6.5	9
Apr 19, 2014	box	Sat	home	Athletics	Scott Kazmir - L	Astros	Brett Oberholtzer - L	4-3	1	W	0.0	P	14-7	2-0	1-2	-210	7.0	9
Apr 18, 2014	box	Fri	home	Athletics	Sonny Gray - R	Astros	Jarred Cosart - R	11-3	8	W	7.0	O	10-10	2-0	8-0	-210	7.0	9
Apr 16, 2014	box	Wed	home	Yankees	Masahiro Tanaka - R	Cubs	Jason Hammel - R	3-0	3	W	-5.0	U	5-3	0-0	3-0	-205	8.0	9
Apr 11, 2014	box	Fri	home	Rangers	Yu Darvish - R	Astros	Scott Feldman - R	1-0	1	W	-7.0	U	8-2	0-0	1-0	-225	8.0	10

rolltide · Aug 8, 2014

it's also 12-1 when you combine the two leagues:

otS(hits) / otS(at bats) <= 0.260 and HF and o:STDSERA <= 4.10 and STDSERA <= 3.50 and line < -200 and season = 2014

SU:	12-1 (2.46, 92.3%)	avg line: -224.3 / 192.1	on / against: +$950 / -$990	ROI: +32.6% / -76.2%
RL:	6-7 (0.96, 46.2%)	avg line: 100.6 / -109.4	on / against: -$105 / +$44	ROI: -7.8% / +3.0%
OU:	5-5-3 (-0.31, 50.0%)	avg total: 7.1	over / under: -$30 / -$60	ROI: -2.2% / -4.1%

	Runs	Hits	Errors	Walks	Strike Outs	Ground Balls	Fly Balls	Team LOB
Team	4.6	9.0	0.6	4.3	7.6	10.3	4.6	8.1
Opp	2.2	7.8	0.7	2.4	9.5	10.2	4.2	7.2

Date	Link	Day	Site	Team	Starter	Opp	Starter	Final	SUm	W/L	OUm	O/U	Hits	Errors	BL	Line	Total	Innings
Aug 08, 2014		Fri	home	Athletics	Scott Kazmir - L	Twins	Kyle Gibson - R									-225	7.0

ok, back to work...well, one more. record since 2009...AL now 34-4, NL not as successful

otS(hits) / otS(at bats) <= 0.260 and HF and o:STDSERA <= 4.10 and STDSERA <= 3.50 and line < -200 and season >= 2009 and season != 2013 and ...

games	SU W - L(marg,%win)	Avg Line	o:Avg Line	$ On	$ Against	On Invested	Against Invested	RL	Avg Run Line	o:Avg Run Line	$ RL On	$ RL Against	RL On Invested	RL Against Invested	OU W - L- P(marg,%over)	Avg Total	$ Over	$ Under	Over Invested	Under Invested	SDQL
38	34-4 (3.37, 89.5%)	-235.6	199.7	+$2,465	-$2,615	8965.0	3800.0	24-13 (1.91, 64.9%)	-108.1	-100.8	+$1,050	-$1,209	4060.0	3905.0	17-17-4 (0.13, 50.0%)	8.3	-$160	-$160	4185.0	4165.0	league = AL
56	39-17 (1.73, 69.6%)	-232.0	197.7	-$105	-$505	12990.0	5600.0	27-28 (0.28, 49.1%)	100.3	-109.7	-$147	-$87	5774.0	6136.0	33-20-3 (1.12, 62.3%)	7.4	+$1,070	-$1,555	6250.0	6070.0	league = NL

Showing 1 to 2 of 2 entries

XSPower · Aug 8, 2014

Thanks and good luck tonight!!!!

ReBorn · Aug 8, 2014

One more question I'm so sorry man. In the Orioles game u are saying take the under?

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