[h=1]Top 10 breakout candidates[/h][h=3]Kyrie Irving, Trey Burke among those with best chance to make a leap[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Bradford Doolittle[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
Projecting breakout players is a dicey proposition at best, but we did it around this time last year anyway. In that piece, we outlined the traits of a typical breakout player:
1. He's entering his second season in the league
2. He's set to play a larger role with his team
3. He's in his early 20s
Goran Dragic, the reigning Most Improved Player, was none of those things. He was in his sixth NBA season. He played in a similar amount of minutes and games as the season before. You could argue his role actually shrunk a bit since he spent so much time on the floor alongside fellow point guard Eric Bledsoe. He turned 28 a couple of weeks after the season ended. Yet Dragic's 10.9 WARP was 47 percent higher than he'd ever posted before. Dragic was an underrated player before last season, but there was no way to foretell that he'd blossom into a third-team All-NBA performer.
We can't tell you who this season's Dragic is going to be, because seasons like that aren't supposed to happen. Part of what makes basketball great is how our baseline expectations are continuously confounded -- how both players and teams alike reveal themselves as wonderful surprises, or sad disappointments. You can point to new Suns coach Jeff Hornacek and his offense-friendly system, and expect one of his players to perform well above expectations, or you could do the same with any number of New York Knicks, who will be playing their first season in Derek Fisher's triangle offense. But you'll probably get exactly nowhere.
For your best chance at predictive success, assume this season's MIP will more closely follow the criteria we've laid out, like Indiana's Paul George did as Dragic's predecessor to win the honor. Using the early returns from this season's SCHOENE forecast, let's look at some players who fit those criteria -- the guys who have the best chance to improve greatly this season, and delight us in the process.
1. Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers
WARP change: plus-4.0 | WIN% change: plus-0.034
Irving made this list last year. We'll be right one of these years. Irving's WARP has increased slightly in each of his three seasons because of minutes increases, but his winning percentage has gone down, from .615 to .606 to .592. SCHOENE sees improved shooting from playing alongside LeBron James as Irving's ticket to a true breakout campaign in 2014.
2. Victor Oladipo, Orlando Magic
WARP change: plus-3.5 | WIN% change: plus-0.030
Oladipo is a classic breakout candidate. He was a high lottery pick who had a solid, albeit unspectacular rookie season during which he got a ton of court time. SCHOENE sees early Dwyane Wade as Oladipo's most comparable antecedent, which is nothing but a good thing. The system sees across-the-board improvement for Oladipo in '14; in particular, he should be buoyed by a slash in turnover rate. As he develops, he'll have a chance to settle into what the Magic hope will be a long-term partnership with rookie point guard Elfrid Payton.
3. Michael Carter-Williams, Philadelphia 76ers
WARP change: plus-3.2 | WIN% change: plus-0.028
Williams rode a volume of counting statistics on a horrid Sixers team to a Rookie of the Year award. In a vacuum, you'd expect him to be better in his second season in a way that perhaps many would miss. That's because the uptick would come from improved efficiency and decision-making, which might result in lower per-game averages. But this is not a vacuum. (Actually, it's the Sixers. Never mind.) While Williams should improve his efficiency based on his age and extensive playing time alone, the poor cast around him will likely again be a drag on his value.
4. Trey Burke, Utah Jazz
WARP change: plus-2.9 | WIN% change: plus-0.036
Burke is yet another second-year player who should be a more efficient scorer and playmaker. He'll need to convince the Jazz he's a fit playing with rookie Dante Exum, rather than an off-the-bench spark playing behind him. We'll get a fresh perspective on all the young Utah players with new coach Quin Snyder now running the show.
5. Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
WARP change: plus-2.5 | WIN% change: plus-0.017
Put this one in the category of the truly frightening. Davis' 15.1 WARP last season ranked fifth in the league, and yet SCHOENE sees him getting even better. Davis is entering his age-22 season, so he could still be far from his peak. The system predicts a happy regression in playing time for Davis, who has missed 33 games over his first two seasons. If that happens and New Orleans' addition of Omer Asik aids a surge in Davis' defensive metrics, he could challenge the likes of LeBron James and Kevin Durant for the top WARP figure in the league. Scary stuff.
6. Kemba Walker, Charlotte Hornets
WARP change: plus-2.2 | WIN% change: plus-0.011
There's a little of the Plexiglas Principle going on here. Walker's shooting numbers dipped last season, and SCHOENE's seeing a recovery to his previous level. Walker probably isn't a true breakout candidate, but he's young enough in age and experience to qualify for our rankings, so there you go.
7. Ricky Rubio, Minnesota Timberwolves
WARP change: plus-2.1 | WIN% change: plus-0.029
Rubio has some Plexiglas in his projection, as well, but it's not due to a dip in shooting percentage. It's because of volume. In 2013-14, Rubio's usage rate was 5 percent lower than the season before. It's a strange trend, which will reverse in a big way if Kevin Love takes his game and all those possessions with him to Cleveland.
8. Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards
WARP change: plus-2.0 | WIN% change: plus-0.018
Beal topped our list last year, but didn't quite improve statistically as much as we thought. If he does this time around, it will merely confirm what we saw in the playoffs.
9. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
WARP change: plus-2.0 | WIN% change: plus-0.037
Antetokounmpo was breathtaking at times in the summer league, so perhaps this ranking might be way too low. He told us himself what he's working on. SCHOENE thinks he'll carry that high level of summer play into the season.
10. Ben McLemore, Sacramento Kings
WARP change: plus-2.0 | WIN% change: plus-0.018
Breakouts can be relative. McLemore ranked 477th in the league with minus-3.3 WARP as a rookie. SCHOENE sees improvement, but not enough to get back to replacement level.
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Bradford Doolittle[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
Projecting breakout players is a dicey proposition at best, but we did it around this time last year anyway. In that piece, we outlined the traits of a typical breakout player:
1. He's entering his second season in the league
2. He's set to play a larger role with his team
3. He's in his early 20s
Goran Dragic, the reigning Most Improved Player, was none of those things. He was in his sixth NBA season. He played in a similar amount of minutes and games as the season before. You could argue his role actually shrunk a bit since he spent so much time on the floor alongside fellow point guard Eric Bledsoe. He turned 28 a couple of weeks after the season ended. Yet Dragic's 10.9 WARP was 47 percent higher than he'd ever posted before. Dragic was an underrated player before last season, but there was no way to foretell that he'd blossom into a third-team All-NBA performer.
We can't tell you who this season's Dragic is going to be, because seasons like that aren't supposed to happen. Part of what makes basketball great is how our baseline expectations are continuously confounded -- how both players and teams alike reveal themselves as wonderful surprises, or sad disappointments. You can point to new Suns coach Jeff Hornacek and his offense-friendly system, and expect one of his players to perform well above expectations, or you could do the same with any number of New York Knicks, who will be playing their first season in Derek Fisher's triangle offense. But you'll probably get exactly nowhere.
For your best chance at predictive success, assume this season's MIP will more closely follow the criteria we've laid out, like Indiana's Paul George did as Dragic's predecessor to win the honor. Using the early returns from this season's SCHOENE forecast, let's look at some players who fit those criteria -- the guys who have the best chance to improve greatly this season, and delight us in the process.
1. Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers
WARP change: plus-4.0 | WIN% change: plus-0.034
Irving made this list last year. We'll be right one of these years. Irving's WARP has increased slightly in each of his three seasons because of minutes increases, but his winning percentage has gone down, from .615 to .606 to .592. SCHOENE sees improved shooting from playing alongside LeBron James as Irving's ticket to a true breakout campaign in 2014.
2. Victor Oladipo, Orlando Magic
WARP change: plus-3.5 | WIN% change: plus-0.030
Oladipo is a classic breakout candidate. He was a high lottery pick who had a solid, albeit unspectacular rookie season during which he got a ton of court time. SCHOENE sees early Dwyane Wade as Oladipo's most comparable antecedent, which is nothing but a good thing. The system sees across-the-board improvement for Oladipo in '14; in particular, he should be buoyed by a slash in turnover rate. As he develops, he'll have a chance to settle into what the Magic hope will be a long-term partnership with rookie point guard Elfrid Payton.
3. Michael Carter-Williams, Philadelphia 76ers
WARP change: plus-3.2 | WIN% change: plus-0.028
Williams rode a volume of counting statistics on a horrid Sixers team to a Rookie of the Year award. In a vacuum, you'd expect him to be better in his second season in a way that perhaps many would miss. That's because the uptick would come from improved efficiency and decision-making, which might result in lower per-game averages. But this is not a vacuum. (Actually, it's the Sixers. Never mind.) While Williams should improve his efficiency based on his age and extensive playing time alone, the poor cast around him will likely again be a drag on his value.
4. Trey Burke, Utah Jazz
WARP change: plus-2.9 | WIN% change: plus-0.036
Burke is yet another second-year player who should be a more efficient scorer and playmaker. He'll need to convince the Jazz he's a fit playing with rookie Dante Exum, rather than an off-the-bench spark playing behind him. We'll get a fresh perspective on all the young Utah players with new coach Quin Snyder now running the show.
5. Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
WARP change: plus-2.5 | WIN% change: plus-0.017
Put this one in the category of the truly frightening. Davis' 15.1 WARP last season ranked fifth in the league, and yet SCHOENE sees him getting even better. Davis is entering his age-22 season, so he could still be far from his peak. The system predicts a happy regression in playing time for Davis, who has missed 33 games over his first two seasons. If that happens and New Orleans' addition of Omer Asik aids a surge in Davis' defensive metrics, he could challenge the likes of LeBron James and Kevin Durant for the top WARP figure in the league. Scary stuff.
6. Kemba Walker, Charlotte Hornets
WARP change: plus-2.2 | WIN% change: plus-0.011
There's a little of the Plexiglas Principle going on here. Walker's shooting numbers dipped last season, and SCHOENE's seeing a recovery to his previous level. Walker probably isn't a true breakout candidate, but he's young enough in age and experience to qualify for our rankings, so there you go.
7. Ricky Rubio, Minnesota Timberwolves
WARP change: plus-2.1 | WIN% change: plus-0.029
Rubio has some Plexiglas in his projection, as well, but it's not due to a dip in shooting percentage. It's because of volume. In 2013-14, Rubio's usage rate was 5 percent lower than the season before. It's a strange trend, which will reverse in a big way if Kevin Love takes his game and all those possessions with him to Cleveland.
8. Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards
WARP change: plus-2.0 | WIN% change: plus-0.018
Beal topped our list last year, but didn't quite improve statistically as much as we thought. If he does this time around, it will merely confirm what we saw in the playoffs.
9. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
WARP change: plus-2.0 | WIN% change: plus-0.037
Antetokounmpo was breathtaking at times in the summer league, so perhaps this ranking might be way too low. He told us himself what he's working on. SCHOENE thinks he'll carry that high level of summer play into the season.
10. Ben McLemore, Sacramento Kings
WARP change: plus-2.0 | WIN% change: plus-0.018
Breakouts can be relative. McLemore ranked 477th in the league with minus-3.3 WARP as a rookie. SCHOENE sees improvement, but not enough to get back to replacement level.
