StatSystemsSports
Inside The Huddle Thursday
NFL Preseason Betting News And Notes - Week #2
Watching the 2014 National Football League preseason isn't much different from navigating through highway construction. The ride is frustrating. The league's emphasis on penalizing defenders for downfield contact has slowed the action of the game. Officials also seem to be emphasizing more hands-to-the-face penalties. Penalty flags are up to 23.4 per game during this preseason of penalties (10 more per game than the start of the past preseason).
One experiment is coming to an end this week. The two-week practice of having extra points from the 15-yard line ended following the Washington-Cleveland game Monday night. The league wanted more drama on extra points, which had become an almost automatic play. Eight extra points (more than in the entire 2013 regular season) were missed in the first 30 preseason games, and Friday's Oakland-Detroit matchup provided an example of the impact of a missed 33-yard extra point. Lions kicker Nate Freese missed an extra point in the first quarter. That ultimately allowed the Raiders to win in the final six seconds by getting a touchdown and the elongated extra point, which prevented overtime in a 27-26 Raiders win in a game that lasted 3:26 and had 18 penalties marched off.
Here is what we learned in the second full week of preseason games:
•The Champs Mean Business: The Seattle Seahawks looked ready to defend their title with a 41-14 victory over San Diego. They rushed for 243 yards. Russell Wilson was efficient, completed 11 of 13 passes and ran for two touchdowns. The Seahawks' crowd was loud and in midseason form. The defense flew to the football.
•Bradford, Romo Are Back: St. Louis Rams quarterback Sam Bradford looked sharp coming off ACL surgery. He was 9-for-12 against Green Bay, his passes were crisp, and he seemed to have firm control of the offense. Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo, who is returning from back surgery, completed four of five passes for 80 yards against Baltimore, including three tosses to Dez Bryant for 59 yards. The fact that Romo could get the ball downfield to Bryant offers hope for the offense. As for the defense, well, that remains a negative story.
•Big Ben Seems To Be On Same Page As His Offensive Coordinator: The no-huddle looks natural for Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. It gives him the ability to call some of his own plays. Watching him complete eight of 11 passes for 128 yards and two touchdowns against Buffalo was a treat. He looked like he was having fun in Todd Haley's offense.
•Jets Better Worry About Their Pass Defense: Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton was 8-for-8 for 144 yards against the cornerback-strapped New York Jets defense. The Jets' front office has taken plenty of criticism for not being more aggressive finding veteran corners. Now, because of injuries, safety Antonio Allen is playing corner. The front half of the season is loaded with games against some of the best quarterbacks in football, led by Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Philip Rivers. Rex Ryan knows how to put together great defensive plans, but his hands are tied if his corners aren't good enough.
•Giant Concerns On Offense: During the Hall of Fame game, New York Giants starter Eli Manning looked OK throwing short passes. Over the past two weeks, he looks lost. He was 1-for-7 in Indianapolis on Saturday. Expect a tough week of practice to get things right as Eli heads into his final tune-up against the Jets on Friday.
•Question Marks In Atlanta, Chicago: While the Atlanta Falcons have improved their toughness and ability to win battles at the line of scrimmage, they aren't particularly deep in the trenches. They can survive losing Sam Baker to a knee injury by possibly moving Jake Matthews from right tackle to left, but one more major injury along the line could set everything backward.... Even though the Chicago Bears didn't game plan, they have to be concerned about a defense that gave up 75- and 41-yard scoring drives to Jacksonville's Chad Henne.... Rams halfback Isaiah Pead became the 11th player to blow out an ACL since the start of training camp.
•Rookies Are Getting It Done: Teddy Bridgewater did a nice job of sparking a come-from-behind victory for the Minnesota Vikings on Saturday night, but Matt Cassel looked too efficient at the beginning of the game to lose the starting job. Cassel was 12-for-16 with a TD pass.... Houston Texans linebacker Jadeveon Clowney, the No. 1 overall pick, exploded into the backfield on two rushes. The Texans might have indeed drafted the best player in the 2014 draft.... Jets safety Calvin Pryor was impressive with his hits and playmaking ability on several plays Saturday night.... Blake Bortles continues to look like the best rookie quarterback in the 2014 draft, but the Jacksonville Jaguars are wise to not start him early.
_______________________________________________________________
Handicapping The Third Exhibition Game
Systems Analyst James Vogel
I hate the National Football League Preseason. It is dull. Misleading. Endless. It is a tease before the real season begins, and it just doesn’t mean enough to justify the time and effort involved in it. They could shorten it to two games, and the only ones who would shed a tear are the owners who get to sell full-price tickets to half-value games. From a betting perspective the preseason is no better. You can’t typically predict who will play and for how long, and you can never be sure of how much teams care about winning the games. It is, in short, a betting nightmare.
There is one minor exception, though — while the other three preseason confrontations are a total waste of time from a betting perspective, there are some aspects of the third preseason game that can occasionally make it worthwhile. That game is the one that teams most often take the most seriously and the one in which starters are likely to play the most. It is still far from a regular contest, but it is much closer to the first two preseason games, and especially the ridiculous waste of oxygen that is the final preseason encounter.
So, what makes this game different, and more attractive, to bettors? Here are four keys:
•Starters Actually Play: It’s not uncommon in the first two games for starters not to play at all or to only play a few possessions before they shut it down for the night. In most cases this third game is where those starters want to play more to smooth the rough edges and get ready for when games really matter. It is rare for a top-level starter to play the whole game unless they have a particular need to, but they will likely go much deeper than they normally would. It’s still less than a regular game, but it at least makes it easier to predict what we will see.
•Playbooks Are Closer To Real: No coach is going to show off all the wrinkles and tricks in a playbook in the preseason. In the third week, though, we will see more plays and more variations than we have up to that point. Coaches need to make sure that the players know what is expected of them and that they understand what they are asked to do. The deeper and more complex the playbook, the more fairly matched offensive and defensive units are, and the more likely that the team with an edge will come out on top.
•Fights For Starting Roles Intensify: In a lot of cases the third week is when races for starting spots that have not yet been settled will be decided. Players who are vying for those roles are going to be giving absolutely their best efforts, and they will be leaving it all on the field. Being able to anticipate a high level of effort is very useful for bettors — especially if that race is between players in a key position.
•Coaches Care: There is no coach who cares about winning a preseason game nearly as much as a regular-season game. In the third game, though, coaches will at least be likely to care about the outcome of the game more than they have up to that point. When a coach doesn’t care about the game at all then it is very hard to predict how the game will turn out. It makes sense, then, that the more coaches care, the more predictable the outcome of the games is likely to become.
But Let’s Not Forget The Game Doesn’t Matter
It can be easy for bettors to get too invested in this game. It has been forever since we last saw a meaningful game, and all we want is to bet on good football. While this game is by far the best we have seen so far, it’s still likely a long way from what we will see in the future. You can allow yourself to get excited relative to what you have already been subjected to, but don’t fool yourself into thinking that this is a football game in all of its glory.
--Coaches Can Focus On More Than The Scoreboard: It is exceptionally rare that a preseason win or a loss will have any real impact on the coach and his career standing. He doesn’t need to win, but he does need to make sure that his team is as ready as they can be when the games do actually matter. That means that it could be quite possible for a coach to be perfectly satisfied with a game even though his team loses badly. He might have aspects of the game he is focused on, and success in those aspects might not lead to a win.
--Rust Runs Deep: In a lot of cases this is the first extended action for starters. If they have played already, they still haven’t played much, and a lot of their action will have come against lesser opposition. When you haven’t played in a meaningful game in eight months you are all but certain to be rusty, and that rust will impact some players differently than others. You can’t just look at the names on the back of the jersey when handicapping these games, because what you will see from players in November is likely very different from what you will see from them in August.
_________________________________________________________________
Top Five ATS Teams From Last Season
Systems Analyst Larry Hertner
The one thing you can be sure of is that things in the National Football League are always changing. It would be easy to handicap this league if teams that were strong against the spread one year stayed that way the next year. That obviously isn’t the case. Sometimes a team loses key players and they struggle as a result — both on the scoreboard and at the betting windows. Other times the teams are just as strong as they were, but the betting public is far more interested in them and the value just disappears. Or sometimes other teams just improve more from a betting perspective. Whatever the reason, this is a good time to look back at the Top 5 teams against the spread in the NFL last year to evaluate their chances of repeating that success this year:
•Seattle Seahawks(11-5 ATS, 68.7%): It is going to be very tough for this team to continue their betting success. There is a lot working against them. Most obviously, they are the defending Super Bowl Champions. Trying to win it all again has proven very difficult for most teams in recent years, and that might not be an exception here, either. The public was also very impressed with this team last year, and they have given every indication that that love affair won’t be ending soon. Superstars like Russell Wilson and Richard Sherman will keep the team in the spotlight. They also play in a brutally-tough division, and that will make both winning and covering spreads tougher than usual.
Contrasting with that, though, there are some things working in favor of the team. Their very talented roster is largely intact, and they are built to compete again. They were far from a fluke when they won last year, so they do not need to overachieve again to win unlike some recent champions. They are well-coached and have maintained their core coaching staff despite the success. They have also had a history of betting success — last year was the second straight year in which they led the league at 11-5 ATS.
"I don’t expect them to be quite this strong again — they are favored to win the NFC, so the public will be heavily on them. They are not likely to be a betting disaster, though."
•San Francisco 49ers (11-5 ATS, 68.7%): How much do you trust Colin Kaepernick to stay healthy? That’s a big factor in your outlook for this team, because the backup QB situation is just a disaster. There are also some real concerns about the health of the defense — not to mention availability due to suspension. There are reasons to be nervous. This is a very good team, though, and they will be hungry to make some waves after a couple of disappointing seasons — or at least the end to the seasons. It feels like the public is not as fond of this team as they are of Seattle. That’s good news for bettors. Despite their betting success last year there is a chance for some value again this year.
•Arizona Cardinals (11-5 ATS, 68.7%): I like this team a lot — more than some people do judging by their 40/1 odds to win it all at Bovada. The division is obviously brutal, and Carson Palmer isn’t getting any younger. The coaching is exceptional, though, and the team has been built well. Last year a lot of their betting success was the result of being better than the public thought they were — they were overlooked in the shadows of the two giants of the NFC West. That could certainly happen again, and if anything this team has improved from last year. I don’t expect this team to disappoint bettors.
•Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1 ATS, 66.6%): Marvin Lewis — a truly terrible coach — is still in charge. Andy Dalton now faces the immense pressure of being not just a quarterback who hasn’t dealt with pressure when the games matter, but now a highly-paid one. The division is more competitive than it was last year. I could go on, but the point is clear — I don’t like the chances of this team repeating their betting success at all.
•Denver Broncos (10-5-1 ATS, 66.6%): They face massive expectations, have changed a lot in the offseason, have a massive target on their backs, and their quarterback, who is more crucial to the fate of this team than any other player in the league, is far from young and a hit away from real issues. That’s a lot of reasons to be nervous. Of course, every single one of those things was also true last year. I was equally concerned, and I couldn’t have been much more wrong.
_____________________________________________
How Was Your Football Season Last Year?
If you didn’t go 25-6 during August and September (80.6%), you weren’t with us here at StatSystems Sports! That was our win-loss record the first two months of the season with our Huge *5-Star Selections.
And aside from winning a documented $2,980 in net profits last season, we were also a "Spot-Less" 4-0 with our Highly-Rated *6-Star College
releases throughout the regular season! Best of all, when you join StatSystemsSports.net this football season in August - in time for the NFL regular season – you will not only save $300 on the spot but also receive the #1 Rated Sports Betting Publication in the Country Today! Our Weekly NFL & NCAA College Football Newsletter Report FREE!
"Remember, don't make a move without it, You'll be glad you did" Stan!
___________________________________________________
Camp Spotlight: Skill-Position Battles
Systems Analyst William Stillman
AFC EAST
•Wide Receiver: We all know that Sammy Watkins will be the Bills' top receiver this season. But who will be EJ Manuel's next favorite targets? Mike Williams has come on strong in training camp and is the No. 2 receiver. That was Robert Woods' role last season, but now Woods is locked in a battle with Chris Hogan to round out Manuel's top trio of pass-catchers.
•Wide Receiver: The best and most competitive battle in training camp for the Dolphins continues to be the slot receiver position. This will be a valuable spot in Bill Lazor's new offense, and candidates Brandon Gibson, Jarvis Landry and Rishard Matthews all are making plays. Gibson continues to hold a lead because of seniority. But Landry has a lot of potential and could play eventually.
•Running Back: Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen and James White are vying for top billing. It very well could be a situation where the Patriots feature a different running back on a week-to-week basis, and White -- a fourth-round pick from Wisconsin -- shouldn't be overlooked as a significant contributor in 2014.
•Wide Receiver: The Jets still haven't decided on a No. 2 wide receiver, the starter opposite Eric Decker, but it figures to be a rotation among Jeremy Kerley, David Nelson and Stephen Hill. Technically, Kerley is listed as a starter, but he's better in the slot than on the outside. Nelson is consistent and has the skill set to be an every-down receiver. Hill has the most upside, but he's still not a reliable target. It's still early, but none of the three draft picks has emerged as a legitimate option. Look for a revolving-door approach, based on personnel groupings and game situations.
AFC NORTH
•Running Back: There's no skill-position battle for the Ravens right now, but there could be one by the middle of September. That's when running back Ray Rice comes off his two-game suspension. The one-cut style of backup Bernard Pierce seems to be a more natural fit to Gary Kubiak stretch running scheme. If Pierce has a fast start, the Ravens may have a decision to make by Week #3.
•Wide Receiver: There are two really compelling skill-position battles in Cincinnati this season at running back and receiver. I'm picking the receiver battle as the most intriguing because it's difficult to discern right now just who will occupy the final receiver spots on the depth chart. Dane Sanzenbacher, James Wright and Cobi Hamilton could all make the team. Sanzenbacher has been versatile and Wright has been better than expected. Hamilton, however, has been inconsistent.
•Quarterback: There is only one skill position battle worth watching with the Cleveland Browns, and it's one of the most-watched competitions in the league. Many factors go into the decision about who starts at quarterback, but the way Johnny Manziel and Brian Hoyer play in Washington on Monday night might be most crucial. The two have been near even for much of camp, and things could be settled with the way they play against Washington. If it's not settled, the Browns have an interesting decision: Does a tie favor the veteran, or the rookie?
•Running Back: Le'Veon Bell is going to start, but the Steelers did not sign LeGarrette Blount to primarily provide injury insurance. Coach Mike Tomlin has made it clear that both Bell and Blount will figure prominently in the running game. The Steelers are serious about running the ball early and often this season, but Bell will have carries siphoned away from him because of Blount's ability to wear down defenses.
AFC SOUTH
•Running Back: Who plays behind running back Arian Foster matters greatly to the Texans given Foster's age and injury history. Jonathan Grimes, Alfred Blue and Ronnie Brown seem the prime competitors for the role. Grimes began the season on the non-football injury list, but jumped to the top of the field as soon as he returned. Blue is a promising sixth-round pick who might have been a star at LSU were it not for an injury early in his college career.
•Running Back: The starting running back position is Trent Richardson's to lose. The Colts wouldn't have it any other way because they gave up a first-round pick to acquire him. Ahmad Bradshaw is lingering over his shoulder if there are any signs that he's struggling. Bradshaw has shown he can produce when given the opportunity. He had the Colts' best rushing game of the season last year, 95 yards against San Francisco.
•Running Back: Offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch called back Toby Gerhart the "lead dog" in the Jaguars' backfield, and Jordan Todman, Denard Robinson, and Storm Johnson are battling to establish a hierarchy behind Gerhart. Fisch said there will be somewhat of a committee approach with Gerhart on top, but his carries will obviously be impacted by whether the Jaguars use a two-, three-, or four-man committee. It appears the Jags are leaning toward a three-man committee, which should mean 15-18 touches per game for Gerhart.
•Running Back: While veteran Shonn Greene is at the head of the line for the Titans' running back-by-committee approach, rookie Bishop Sankey is the team's most well-rounded back. Sankey is on a good growth curve, and I expect he will earn the most touches over the course of the season, with Greene and Dexter McCluster making their contributions as more situational players.
AFC WEST
•Running Back: With a deep roster on a team coming off a Super Bowl appearance, the one place where a player could carve out a little room for himself is at running back. Montee Ball is the unquestioned starter, but after Ball things are undecided. Ronnie Hillman has the edge as the third-down, change-of-pace guy, but C.J. Anderson and undrafted rookie Juwan Thompson have each gotten some practice snaps with the starters as well.
•Wide Receiver: The Chiefs have several candidates to choose from, but look for Junior Hemingway to get a large share of the snaps as their slot receiver. At 6-1 and 225 pounds, Hemingway is much bigger than the traditional slot receiver. But he does well getting open in traffic and offers the Chiefs some versatility because of his size and blocking ability.
•Running Back: Darren McFadden knows the Oakland Raiders' playbook and personnel better, but Maurice Jones-Drew has proven to be the more durable running back. The bigger Run DMC is better at creating in space, while the shiftier but much smaller MJD is more effective between the tackles. Jones-Drew has the edge, but the biggest question in this battle is how the Raiders use each back's skill set.
•Running Back: Chargers head coach Mike McCoy said Ryan Mathews remains the every-down back for San Diego. However, with the addition of Donald Brown in free agency along with third-down back Danny Woodhead coming off a career 2013 campaign, Mathews likely will see a decrease in carries. Mathews is in a contract year, so he'll be properly motivated to do the best with whatever touches he receives.
__________________________________________________________________
Covered And Smothered
Do you have everything you need for football season yet? StatSystemsSports.net has you covered and smothered like Waffle House hash browns for NCAA College Football along with the National Football League:
Daily Stat/Sheets. For the handicapper who wants to dig into the stats, there's nothing that compares to the wealth of both Match-up and Situational Power Trends and Betting Systems offered by the Stat/Sheets.
StatSystems Sports Bi-Weekly Newsletter Report. Only the very best trends from our Huge Libary of Power Trends stored in our database along with expert writeups for each match-up from our Expert Staff of Handicappers, delivered straight to your inbox every Wednesday and Saturday.
Best Bets. The top plays from our handicappers every week, with detailed matchup information and wagering advice. Note: Best Bets subscriptions include The Bi-Weekly Newsletter Report at no additional cost!
Get the BEST BANG FOR YOUR BUCK
"Get a monthly package now - you'll be real glad you did!”
_________________________________________________
NFC EAST
•Running Back: Coach Jason Garrett said DeMarco Murray is the leader of a running back committee but has traits of a bell cow. While the Cowboys like Lance Dunbar, Murray will continue to see the overwhelming majority of snaps when games start. During the past few seasons, the Cowboys have said they wanted to be a physical rushing team but moved away from the running game once the season started. In training camp, the Cowboys have shown more of a willingness to stick to the run. In their first preseason game, six of the first eight plays were rushes. Murray has noticed increased work in practices, leading him to believe there will be a greater focus on the run.
•Tight End: The only real battle in Giants camp for a starting skill position is at tight end. Larry Donnell, an undrafted second-year player from Grambling, looks to have the edge and is playing with the first team. Former Patriots tight end Daniel Fells could push him now that he's back from knee injury. Adrien Robinson continues to be a big disappointment.
•Wide Receiver/Tight End: The most interesting competition in the Eagles' camp is for playing time at the offensive skill positions. In that sense, rookie wide receiver Jordan Matthews is competing not only against first-team slot receiver Brad Smith. Matthews is also competing against starting wide receivers Riley Cooper and Jeremy Maclin, as well as tight ends Brent Celek and Zach Ertz. Coach Chip Kelly wants to have versatile, big-bodied players who can line up anywhere, block effectively, catch the ball and then run with it afterward. Matthews started out as the second-team slot receiver. He could replace Smith or Cooper (or take snaps from the tight ends) by the time his rookie season is over.
•Running Back: The Redskins wanted to upgrade their third-down back situation, but they might end up going with the same guy as last season: Roy Helu. In camp, Helu has looked the best of the backs vying for that spot. Rookie Lache Seastrunk has a long way to go in protection and Silas Redd is not as shifty as Helu. Chris Thompson's durability makes him questionable. Helu is the best of this bunch at running routes and handling the protection schemes. Hard to see him losing the job.
NFC NORTH
•Wide Receiver: With Marquess Wilson expected to miss time in the regular season because of a broken collarbone at camp, competition has opened up for the No. 3 receiver position. Eric Weems appears to be the favorite but doesn't exactly stand out as much as he exhibits consistency. Josh Morgan provides flash plays and run-after-catch ability, but he lacks Weems' consistency. Josh Bellamy, Micheal Spurlock and Chris Williams are also in the mix, but expect the team's decision to come down to Weems and Morgan.
•Running Back: The most intriguing position battle has little to do with actual playing time, but more an allocation of snaps and touches between Reggie Bush and Joique Bell. Both figure to receive a lot of touches as new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi will likely use many backs in a bunch of different roles. Bell may actually receive more carries as a straight runner and could be more valuable in goal-line situations. Bush is going to be a piece used out of the backfield and also out wide so his receptions could skyrocket.
•Tight End: In the search for Jermichael Finley's replacement, it's a close race between Andrew Quarless, Brandon Bostick and rookie Richard Rodgers. Ultimately, Rodgers, a third-round pick, might end up as the top tight end among the group long term. But so far in camp and through the first preseason game, Bostick looks like he's the most ready-made replacement for Finley's big-play ability in the passing game.
•Quarterback: The one major skill position battle is at the most important spot on the roster. Matt Cassel has received most of the first-team snaps in training camp and appears to be comfortably ahead of rookie Teddy Bridgewater. Cassel should start the Vikings' second preseason game on Saturday. Bridgewater has cooled after an impressive start, as the Vikings' defenses in practice have gotten more complex. Short of a major surge from the rookie late in camp, it appears Cassel will be the starter to begin the regular season.
NFC SOUTH
•Running Back: The running back position has been the most intriguing battle. Starter Steven Jackson remains sidelined with a hamstring injury but is expected back for the opener. Jacquizz Rodgers stepped into the No. 1 role, but coaches are high on fourth-round draft pick Devonta Freeman. Speedy Antone Smith looked the best of the backs in the preseason opener. If anything, the Falcons have enough capable guys to keep Jackson fresher and possibly allow him to be more of a goal-line threat.
•Wide Receiver: The top three wide receivers are set in Kelvin Benjamin, Jerricho Cotchery and Jason Avant. It gets interesting at No. 4. Brenton Bersin had the early edge because of his sure-handedness. Tavarres King may have passed him with a strong week of practice and four catches in the preseason opener. The staff would love for Tiquan Underwood to step up because of his blistering speed, but he's been too inconsistent. For now, it's King.
•Running Back: Although Mark Ingram looked terrific in the preseason opener, I expect a pretty even split between Ingram, Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas all season (with Thomas in more of a third-down role). The good news is that the Saints' run game looks improved overall.
•Wide Receiver: Chris Owusu continues to work as a starting wide receiver opposite Vincent Jackson. But the Bucs gradually have been giving rookie Mike Evans more reps with the first team. Look for that trend to continue and for Evans to be the starter by the beginning of the regular season.
NFC WEST
•Running Back: While all of Arizona's starting skill positions are pretty much set, the best position battle is for the No. 2 running back between second-year back Stepfan Taylor and Jonathan Dwyer. The two have split time behind starter Andre Ellington during training camp but with the Cardinals' new two-back system, the second job is valuable. Taylor has played in between the tackles while Dwyer is a power back who has proven to be dangerous in the red zone.
•Wide Receiver: This is a new problem for the San Francisco 49ers. Last year, the 49ers got little help from non-starting receivers and they were last in the league in using three-receiver sets. However, they traded for veteran Stevie Johnson and signed veteran Brandon Lloyd and the two have battled to be the top reserve receiver. Both have looked good in camp. Johnson has the edge as the No. 3 receiver ; I think he is capable of catching 60 balls. Lloyd will likely be an active No. 4 receiver and a prime candidate to get quality playing time if there is an injury above him.
•Wide Receiver: The Rams have six receivers vying for playing time, with two or three likely to be on the field most of the time. Kenny Britt, Tavon Austin and Brian Quick are the leaders in the clubhouse and it doesn't look like that will be changing. Stedman Bailey would likely be among the top two were it not for a four-game suspension to start the season.
Running Back: As far as the starters go, there isn't a skill-position battle for the Seahawks. But there is a battle going on for which running back will back up Marshawn Lynch between Robert Turbin and Christine Michael. Turbin is listed as No. 2 on the depth chart, but Michael is the more explosive runner and will win this job if he continues to prove he can do the job as a blocker in pass protection.
______________________________________________________________________
#251 PITTSBURGH @ #252 PHILADELPHIA
Line: Eagles -3, Total: 50.5
The Philadelphia Eagles open their home slate of preseason games at the newly-renovated Lincoln Financial Field (7:30 PM EST) on Thursday night as they welcome Keystone-state rival Pittsburgh to the City of Brotherly Love. Last week, Philadelphia fell in a shootout to the New England Patriots, 42-35, although quarterback Nick Foles bounced back from a subpar two-interception performance against Chicago by going 8-of-10 for 81 yards and a touchdown.
Foles' backup, Mark Sanchez, was even more efficient, connecting on 11-of-12 attempts for 117 yards with two touchdowns, although his one misfire was an interception for the Eagles, who have dropped two straight in the preseason so far. Second-round draft choice Jordan Matthews tallied nine receptions for 104 yards and LeSean McCoy carried the ball six times for 19 yards in the defeat. Defensively Cary Williams returned a Tom Brady interception 77 yards for a touchdown. "There is really a preseason template that we're running on," Eagles defensive coordinator Bill Davis said. "We're going to run our base defenses. And this is an evaluation phase. Sometimes evaluation looks painful, but sometimes it looks promising."
The Steelers, meanwhile, are coming off their first exhibition win after Shaun Suisham's 20-yard field goal as time expired lifted Pittsburgh over the Buffalo Bills 19-16. Ben Roethlisberger played the first half for the Steelers, ending up 8-of-11 for 128 yards and tossing first-quarter touchdown strikes to Antonio Brown and Markus Wheaton. Brown led all receivers with 93 yards on just a pair of catches.
Linebacker Ryan Shazier, Pittsburgh's first-round pick, made his debut after missing the previous week with a knee bruise and really impressed, tallying 11 solo tackles, a pass defensed and an interception which he returned 27 yards. "I'm just excited to be back out on the field," Shazier told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "Just to be out there and show everyone what I can do. You're always nervous your first game. The NFL was the dream of my life. I finally got the opportunity to do it."
The Steelers will be making their fourth preseason appearance at Lincoln Financial Field since the facility opened in 2003. Pittsburgh has defeated the Eagles in six of the last 10 preseason matchups dating back to 1997.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 8 times, while the underdog covered the spread 7 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 12 times, while the underdog won straight up 4 times. 0 games went over the total, while 0 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 26 times, while the underdog covered first half line 15 times. *No EDGE. 0 games went over first half total, while 0 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - Any team versus the 1rst half total (PITTSBURGH) - after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after being outrushed by 75 or more yards last game.
(25-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (83.3%, +19.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 18.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 11.5, Opponent 13.3 (Total first half points scored = 24.9)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-1).
Since 1993 the situation's record is: (45-16).
_________________________________________________
w-thumbs!^
