Team By Team Running Back Outlook

HacheMan · Aug 21, 2014

[h=1]Team-by-team running back outlook[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Eric Karabell[/FONT] | ESPN Insider

In a general sense, I find the popular fantasy football strategy of handcuffing running backs to be largely overrated. Sure, several key running backs will get injured this season, and someone's going to replace them on their NFL teams, in theory, but seldom do we see a future star lurking who provides immediate fantasy, um, gratification. The more popular handcuffs heading into last season were Ben Tate, Andre Brown, Giovani Bernard andBernard Pierce, and Bernard was the only one who really helped fantasy owners a great deal.
Looking at the accompanying chart, it's clear there are some very different situations. In fact, the days of natural handcuffing, as it were, are somewhat in the rearview mirror. Last season, only two players topped the 300-carry mark. In 2010, seven running backs achieved this. The Arizona Cardinals and Cincinnati Bengals have two smallish starters who can catch passes and some bigger folks to handle the goal-line stuff. Teams such as theBuffalo Bills, Detroit Lions and Miami Dolphins already have several fantasy-relevant running backs who figure to share the touches.
In the past, I've ranked the top handcuffing situations, but it's tough to find 10 that really matter -- the term doesn't fit several teams, and, let's face it, I'd prefer to go team by team with relevant thoughts. I can't imagine that's a problem!
<offer>Arizona Cardinals: A year ago, it was Rashard Mendenhall. Now it's either Jonathan Dwyeror Stepfan Taylor keeping Andre Ellington's carries down. I like Ellington, but I do believe these guys will play. Neither is worth drafting, though. If Ellington gets hurt, like with so many teams, those teams are in trouble.</offer>
Atlanta Falcons: Steven Jackson just can't stay healthy, and most people think hotshot rookie Devonta Freeman is next. Well, that could happen soon, but he's not there yet.Jacquizz Rodgers and Antone Smith are still in the way, for now, and it doesn't matter how great we think Freeman will be, the coaches make the decisions! Like most rookies, Freeman has no bad NFL numbers yet, which is partly why fantasy owners love the rookies.
Baltimore Ravens: Bernard Pierce will play well the first two weeks while Ray Rice serves suspension, and, although I think Pierce will matter this season, I still doubt it means he’ll keep the job all to himself. This is a time share, and the No. 3 guy doesn't really matter.

Buffalo Bills: Here, the No. 3 guy does matter, perhaps quite a bit. Bryce Brown has skills, and we all remember what he did over a magical two-game stretch two seasons ago. C.J. Spilleractually played in 15 games last season, so the fact Fred Jackson was the Buffalo player who finished 10th among running backs in standard scoring is often misunderstood. He did that with Spiller active. Brown really could pass both these guys.
Carolina Panthers: Does it really matter? OK, I suppose every team matters. For the 18th consecutive year, it's DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, with some exaggeration. A year ago, I liked Kenjon Barner a bit, but apparently the Panthers don't agree, having traded him Tuesday. Fozzy Whittaker moves into the No. 3 slot, but ultimately it's Cam Newton's team.
Chicago Bears: Matt Forte is safe. But you'll see I don't have rookie Ka'Deem Carey next. That's because he's not next, not yet.
Cincinnati Bengals: Bernard should end up sharing with big-boy rookie Jeremy Hill, but I feel compelled to remind people that BenJarvus Green-Ellis is still around and could play a similar role to last year. It's not much, but he did score seven touchdowns. It's a tad presumptive to move Hill above the Law Firm at this point.
Cleveland Browns: Ben Tate isn't likely to participate in all 16 games, and, for now, it does look as though Terrance West is a major factor, even when Tate is healthy.
Dallas Cowboys: DeMarco Murray was relatively reliable last season, but there are three others in this backfield worth thinking about in deeper formats. Joseph Randle and Lance Dunbar are obvious. I personally think Dunbar is the better player and will show it if given the chance. Don't forget about Ryan Williams, though. He's lurking.
Denver Broncos: Montee Ball will be awesome. If not, for health, performance or blocking reasons, I still view it as doubtful Ronnie Hillman will turn into a 20-touch-per-game guy. I do think if anyone becomes the next Knowshon Moreno, coming out of nowhere for this franchise, it's not Hillman or C.J. Anderson but Juwan Thompson.
Detroit Lions: This is basically a time share with Reggie Bush and bigger Joique Bell, and the Lions like 'em both. Bush isn't really a fantasy value in ADP, but Bell is. And the other running backs in camp are all candidates for release, in theory.
Green Bay Packers: Love Eddie Lacy! And James Starks is a draftable commodity, as well.
Houston Texans: Here's a team to watch because Arian Foster missed half of last year and is hurt right now. Andre Brown was released, and since he hasn't found work yet, let's assume the Texans had good reason. Jonathan Grimes is an intriguing runner/receiver next in line, but, as my colleague Christopher Harris notes in his super-deep sleeper piece, don't forget about Alfred Blue. Trust me, I was going to write about Blue regardless!
Indianapolis Colts: I suppose Trent Richardson could bully his way to numbers similar to those he achieved as a rookie, but he's just not that good. Ahmad Bradshaw can't be asked to stay on the field for 16 games. Daniel Herron intrigues me if given the chance to shine.
Jacksonville Jaguars: It's finally Toby Gerhart time, so he'd better not blow it! Jordan Todman should beat out Denard Robinson and Storm Johnson, but all four backs are in play.

Kansas City Chiefs: Jamaal Charles is awesome, and I don't see Knile Davis doing much, although he'll be selected by many Charles owners anyway. I see the point, can't argue it, but I trust Charles. It’s not the O-line, it's him.

Miami Dolphins: Lamar Miller and Knowshon Moreno are both going to play, harming each other's value. Harris likes Damien Williams, and that's enough for me to pay attention just in case. Mike Gillislee and Daniel Thomasalso remain from last year, if they make the team.
Minnesota Vikings: How many carries did Gerhart get in his four years backing up Adrian Peterson? Not many. Adrian didn't learn sharing in kindergarten. Matt Asiata is next in line now that Gerhart is gone, and he shouldn't expect much love.
New England Patriots: Now this is a situation to watch! I think Stevan Ridley is underrated. This was a borderline top-10 running back early last season who's now being treated as a backup. Shane Vereen is a pass-catcher. And James White probably doesn't matter in September, but there's major upside here if the others fail. Brandon Bolden remains in the picture, as well.
New Orleans Saints: This team doesn't have a handcuff situation, but three running backs matter. Mark Ingram probably gets first shot over popular sleeper Khiry Robinson for carries, and Pierre Thomas catches the passes. And Travaris Cadet can catch passes, as well, if Thomas can't stay healthy. I don't see a 1,000-yard runner here, though.
New York Giants: I see a 1,000-yard runner here in Rashad Jennings, and not much else. Rookie Andre Williams can't pass block. And how did Peyton Hillis achieve those 2010 numbers? Incredible, but forget he did it for current fantasy purposes.
New York Jets: Chris Johnson looks somewhat shot to me, but he'll get many carries, withChris Ivory and Bilal Powell nothing special in reserve. If Johnson can catch 50 passes, that would really overshadow a low yards-per-rush average and make things just fine. In open space he remains terrific.
Oakland Raiders: Latavius Murray has become a popular sleeper, but he remains a distant No. 3 behind Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden, neither of whom should be trusted. Unless both are hurt, though, it's tough to see Murray going off.
Philadelphia Eagles: LeSean McCoy should lose receptions with Darren Sproles around, and word is Sproles will get rushing attempts, as well. Don't blame the messenger. Of course, despite that, McCoy is a reasonable No. 1 pick. Chris Polk was lurking as a more traditional backup running back, with Bryce Brown off to Buffalo, in case McCoy has to miss time, but the Tuesday night trade of Kenjon Barner from Carolina to Philly for a late draft pick is very interesting. Barner is not a big fellow, but he's really fast and can catch passes. He could matter soon.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Le'Veon Bell claims LeGarrette Blount will be helping him with carries around the goal line, and perhaps that's true. It doesn't mean Bell can't still pilfer the end zone double-digit times. It does mean Blount is a reasonable late-rounder, though. And by the way, Bell and Blount have something else in common, off the field, and potential legal woes to deal with, but as of now, this does not affect draft-day value. It might mean Dri Archer starts a game, however.
San Diego Chargers: Three guys matter here, with Ryan Mathews again having to prove durability because Donald Brown was given a chance, and Danny Woodhead will still catch passes. I have to think Mathews won't repeat last season.
San Francisco 49ers: Frank Gore isn't too old to be an RB2, and his best competition is a rookie in Carlos Hyde. He's good, too, and it's doubtful Marcus Lattimore or LaMichael James, should he make the team, will contribute much. Gore remains better than most people realize. Only seven players had more rushing attempts.

Seattle Seahawks: The people burying Marshawn Lynch are a bit overzealous. The people exalting Christine Michael to potential stardom are, as well. Lynch is fine. He's healthy, motivated, and not too old or an injury risk at all. Not yet. And if that changes, Robert Turbin is next in line.

St. Louis Rams: Zac Stacy is a borderline first-rounder for me, so I'm clearly not worried about injury or a lack of touches. Rookie Tre Masonshould play a role, but, as of now, it's not clear he's No. 2 instead of Benny Cunningham. Isaiah Pead is out for the season, incidentally.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Doug Martinseems awfully risky to me among the top 10 running backs, so I didn't rank him that well. Even with Charles Simsdone for the season, Bobby Rainey andMike James are factors in what could be a three-headed monster. And this offensive line must improve or none of it matters.
Tennessee Titans: I continue to be surprised that rookie Bishop Sankey isn't being overdrafted, but kudos to those paying attention. Plodding Shonn Greene is the starter and Sankey should play, but the guy I'd like to see get significant touches is former Chief Dexter McCluster. Of course, he probably won't get many chances. Greene could earn his third 1,000-yard campaign. No really, he could.
Washington Redskins: Alfred Morris continues to fall a bit too far in drafts. Sure, he doesn't catch passes, but he runs well and scores touchdowns. Roy Helu catches passes, so he'll play. And the No. 3 guy could be Evan Royster, Silas Redd or Chris Thompson. Morris seems durable, though.

[h=4]
Fantasy Running Back/Handcuff Value Chart
[/h]

STARTER	HANDCUFF	STEALTH
Andre Ellington	Jonathan Dwyer	Stepfan Taylor
Steven Jackson	Jacquizz Rodgers	Devonta Freeman
Bernard Pierce	Ray Rice	Justin Forsett
C.J. Spiller	Fred Jackson	Bryce Brown
DeAngelo Williams	Jonathan Stewart	Fozzy Whittaker
Matt Forte	Shaun Draughn	Ka'Deem Carey
Giovani Bernard	Jeremy Hill	BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Ben Tate	Terrance West	Dion Lewis
DeMarco Murray	Lance Dunbar	Joseph Randle
Montee Ball	Ronnie Hillman	Juwan Thompson
Reggie Bush	Joique Bell	Mikel Leshoure
Eddie Lacy	James Starks	DuJuan Harris
Arian Foster	Jonathan Grimes	Alfred Blue
Trent Richardson	Ahmad Bradshaw	Dan Herron
Toby Gerhart	Jordan Todman	Denard Robinson
Jamaal Charles	Knile Davis	De'Anthony Thomas
Lamar Miller	Knowshon Moreno	Damien Williams
Adrian Peterson	Matt Asiata	Jerick McKinnon
Stevan Ridley	Shane Vereen	James White
Mark Ingram	Pierre Thomas	Khiry Robinson
Rashad Jennings	Andre Williams	Peyton Hillis
Chris Johnson	Chris Ivory	Bilal Powell
Maurice Jones-Drew	Darren McFadden	Latavius Murray
LeSean McCoy	Darren Sproles	Kenjon Barner
Le'Veon Bell	LeGarrette Blount	Dri Archer
Ryan Mathews	Danny Woodhead	Donald Brown
Frank Gore	Carlos Hyde	Marcus Lattimore
Marshawn Lynch	Robert Turbin	Christine Michael
Zac Stacy	Tre Mason	Benny Cunningham
Doug Martin	Bobby Rainey	Mike James
Shonn Greene	Bishop Sankey	Dexter McCluster
Alfred Morris	Roy Helu	Evan Royster