[h=1]Projecting the Cavs in 2014-15[/h][h=3]Cleveland could have a scary good offense, but what about the D?[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Kevin Pelton | ESPN Insider
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Sixty-eight wins.
That's the crazy, amazingly optimistic projection my SCHOENE projection system spit out for the Cleveland Cavaliers once Kevin Love was added to LeBron James' new roster.
Ordinarily, I'd close a column like this with the projection. In this case I think it makes more sense to start with the eye-popping figure and why it is as crazy as it looks -- before explaining why the Cavaliers actually might not be getting enough credit in some ways.
[h=3]SCHOENE's shortcoming: defense[/h]The wildest aspect of SCHOENE's projection isn't Cleveland's win total, but the team's projected ranking on defense: fourth in the NBA, as in fourth-fewest points allowed per possession. That doesn't square with conventional wisdom about the Cavaliers' defensive woes, and there are a couple of reasons for that.
SCHOENE doesn't take into account measures of individual defense, so Love's poor rim protection isn't considered. At the same time, Love's stout defensive rebounding and his penchant for avoiding fouls are part of the SCHOENE projection, so Cleveland is getting all of Love's strengths and none of his weaknesses.
Nonetheless, SCHOENE does see the Cavaliers as below-average at defending opponent shots, projecting them 17th in effective field goal percentage (eFG%) allowed. Because shot defense is the most important single factor, in practice it's nearly impossible to be elite defensively without limiting opponents' shooting. No team with a below-average eFG% ranked in the NBA's top nine defenses last season. However, because it's tougher to project shot defense than other factors, SCHOENE puts most teams close to league average, meaning other defensive factors carry relatively more weight in the projection.
ESPN's real plus-minus, which attributes defensive performance to individuals based on how teams defend with them on the floor and on the bench, along with box-score stats, can give us a better idea of how much Cleveland's new lineup might struggle on defense.
Here's my stab at how the Cavaliers will distribute playing time next season, based on projected games played, along with real plus-minus ratings for both offense and defense projected for 2014-15 based on the typical aging curve.
[h=4]CAVALIERS REAL PLUS-MINUS PROJECTIONS[/h]
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Even with real plus-minus rating Love as an above-average defender, poor marks for players such as Kyrie Irving and Mike Miller drag down the team overall. Weighted for playing time, real plus-minus estimates Cleveland will allow 1.0 points per 100 possessions more than league average -- about the same as last year's Brooklyn Nets, who ranked 19th in the NBA in defensive rating.
Giving the Cavaliers the real plus-minus estimate on defense in SCHOENE drags their win projection all the way down to 60 wins. There is some hope Cleveland can outperform that. Real plus-minus can't account for new head coach David Blatt, and coaches tend to have far more influence on the defensive end than on offense. If Blatt can merely get the Cavaliers to league average on defense, their SCHOENE projection would be 62 wins -- best in the NBA. That's how good Cleveland figures to be on offense.
[h=3]Potentially historic offense[/h]As good as you think the Cavaliers might be on offense, they've got the chance to be better. Let's revisit those real plus-minus projections. Weighting offense in the same manner gives Cleveland an offensive rating 10.0 points per 100 possessions better than league average. Since the NBA began tracking team turnovers in 1973-74, no team has managed even 10 points per 100 possessions better than league average, with the 2003-04 Dallas Mavericks (plus-9.9) getting closest.
SCHOENE is a tad more conservative, merely projecting the Cavaliers for the best offensive rating (118.0 points per 100 possessions) the league has seen in that four-decade span. Because offense has trended upward throughout the NBA, SCHOENE's projection would rank Cleveland second in modern history relative to league average behind those Mavericks.
The Cavaliers can run out an offensive quintet more talented than any in the NBA last season. A possible starting lineup of Irving, James, Love, Anderson Varejao and Dion Waiters would have a combined offensive real plus-minus of plus-16.6 points per 100 possessions. The best lineup that played regularly in the NBA last season by this measure was the Clippers' starting five with J.J. Redick, at plus-14.2. Miami's best offensive lineup, with Ray Allen at shooting guard and James at power forward, was plus-13.3.
Zooming in, Cleveland could feature unprecedented offensive versatility. Since the ABA-NBA merger, no team has ranked in the top five in all four offensive factors (shooting, rebounding, free throws and turnover rate). In fact, only one team since 1996 (the 2005-06 Dallas Mavericks) has ranked in the top 10 in all four factors. SCHOENE projects the Cavaliers first in both eFG% on offense and offensive rebounding and fifth in the other two factors.
Specifically, few modern teams have managed to combine high shooting percentages with effective offensive rebounding. Last season, only the Houston Rockets were in the top 10 in both categories. Love's versatility offers Cleveland the possibility of playing big and controlling the offensive glass while also spacing the floor.
[h=3]Good enough to win?[/h]For the regular season, the Cavaliers' mix of hyper-efficient offense and average-to-slightly-worse defense should make them one of the league's best teams. The obvious comparison is to the Mike D'Antoni Phoenix Suns, who ranked among the top 10 offense in the NBA relative to league average in both 2004-05 and 2006-07, with defenses near average. Those Suns won 62 and 61 games, respectively, and that's a good guess for Cleveland. More often than not, such win totals have been good enough for the NBA's best record.
The playoffs are a slightly different story. There is evidence that good defenses tend to beat good offenses in the NBA Finals, and only one team has won the title with a below-average regular-season defense since the merger. (That team, the 2001 Los Angeles Lakers, was a major fluke; those Lakers had the league's best defense in the playoffs.)
Of course, just because something hasn't happened doesn't mean it can't happen, and we might look at the importance of defense differently had the 2007 Phoenix-San Antonio series played out differently. Still, the preliminary look at the 2014-15 Cavaliers suggests the most important newcomer on the roster isn't James or Love; it's Blatt, since his ability to mold this group into an above-average defense may well determine whether Cleveland can meet lofty expectations.
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Kevin Pelton | ESPN Insider
[/FONT]
Sixty-eight wins.
That's the crazy, amazingly optimistic projection my SCHOENE projection system spit out for the Cleveland Cavaliers once Kevin Love was added to LeBron James' new roster.
Ordinarily, I'd close a column like this with the projection. In this case I think it makes more sense to start with the eye-popping figure and why it is as crazy as it looks -- before explaining why the Cavaliers actually might not be getting enough credit in some ways.
[h=3]SCHOENE's shortcoming: defense[/h]The wildest aspect of SCHOENE's projection isn't Cleveland's win total, but the team's projected ranking on defense: fourth in the NBA, as in fourth-fewest points allowed per possession. That doesn't square with conventional wisdom about the Cavaliers' defensive woes, and there are a couple of reasons for that.
SCHOENE doesn't take into account measures of individual defense, so Love's poor rim protection isn't considered. At the same time, Love's stout defensive rebounding and his penchant for avoiding fouls are part of the SCHOENE projection, so Cleveland is getting all of Love's strengths and none of his weaknesses.
Nonetheless, SCHOENE does see the Cavaliers as below-average at defending opponent shots, projecting them 17th in effective field goal percentage (eFG%) allowed. Because shot defense is the most important single factor, in practice it's nearly impossible to be elite defensively without limiting opponents' shooting. No team with a below-average eFG% ranked in the NBA's top nine defenses last season. However, because it's tougher to project shot defense than other factors, SCHOENE puts most teams close to league average, meaning other defensive factors carry relatively more weight in the projection.
ESPN's real plus-minus, which attributes defensive performance to individuals based on how teams defend with them on the floor and on the bench, along with box-score stats, can give us a better idea of how much Cleveland's new lineup might struggle on defense.
Here's my stab at how the Cavaliers will distribute playing time next season, based on projected games played, along with real plus-minus ratings for both offense and defense projected for 2014-15 based on the typical aging curve.
[h=4]CAVALIERS REAL PLUS-MINUS PROJECTIONS[/h]
| Player | GP | MPG | Min | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James | 78 | 36 | 2808 | 8.5 | 0.4 |
| Kyrie Irving | 74 | 36 | 2664 | 2.5 | -3.2 |
| Kevin Love | 69 | 36 | 2484 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| Dion Waiters | 76 | 26 | 1973 | 1.8 | -1.3 |
| Tristan Thompson | 78 | 25 | 1950 | -0.4 | -1.2 |
| Anderson Varejao | 61 | 28 | 1708 | 0.2 | 3.5 |
| Shawn Marion | 77 | 20 | 1540 | -2.1 | 0.6 |
| Matthew Dellavedova | 78 | 16 | 1248 | 1.9 | 0.3 |
| Mike Miller | 77 | 15 | 1155 | 1.2 | -3.1 |
| Malcolm Thomas | 78 | 10 | 780 | -0.8 | -0.1 |
| Brendan Haywood | 59 | 10 | 590 | -3.3 | 2.5 |
| Joe Harris | 78 | 5 | 390 | -1.7 | -2.8 |
| James Jones | 78 | 5 | 390 | -1.2 | 0.5 |
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Even with real plus-minus rating Love as an above-average defender, poor marks for players such as Kyrie Irving and Mike Miller drag down the team overall. Weighted for playing time, real plus-minus estimates Cleveland will allow 1.0 points per 100 possessions more than league average -- about the same as last year's Brooklyn Nets, who ranked 19th in the NBA in defensive rating.
Giving the Cavaliers the real plus-minus estimate on defense in SCHOENE drags their win projection all the way down to 60 wins. There is some hope Cleveland can outperform that. Real plus-minus can't account for new head coach David Blatt, and coaches tend to have far more influence on the defensive end than on offense. If Blatt can merely get the Cavaliers to league average on defense, their SCHOENE projection would be 62 wins -- best in the NBA. That's how good Cleveland figures to be on offense.
[h=3]Potentially historic offense[/h]As good as you think the Cavaliers might be on offense, they've got the chance to be better. Let's revisit those real plus-minus projections. Weighting offense in the same manner gives Cleveland an offensive rating 10.0 points per 100 possessions better than league average. Since the NBA began tracking team turnovers in 1973-74, no team has managed even 10 points per 100 possessions better than league average, with the 2003-04 Dallas Mavericks (plus-9.9) getting closest.
SCHOENE is a tad more conservative, merely projecting the Cavaliers for the best offensive rating (118.0 points per 100 possessions) the league has seen in that four-decade span. Because offense has trended upward throughout the NBA, SCHOENE's projection would rank Cleveland second in modern history relative to league average behind those Mavericks.
The Cavaliers can run out an offensive quintet more talented than any in the NBA last season. A possible starting lineup of Irving, James, Love, Anderson Varejao and Dion Waiters would have a combined offensive real plus-minus of plus-16.6 points per 100 possessions. The best lineup that played regularly in the NBA last season by this measure was the Clippers' starting five with J.J. Redick, at plus-14.2. Miami's best offensive lineup, with Ray Allen at shooting guard and James at power forward, was plus-13.3.
Zooming in, Cleveland could feature unprecedented offensive versatility. Since the ABA-NBA merger, no team has ranked in the top five in all four offensive factors (shooting, rebounding, free throws and turnover rate). In fact, only one team since 1996 (the 2005-06 Dallas Mavericks) has ranked in the top 10 in all four factors. SCHOENE projects the Cavaliers first in both eFG% on offense and offensive rebounding and fifth in the other two factors.
Specifically, few modern teams have managed to combine high shooting percentages with effective offensive rebounding. Last season, only the Houston Rockets were in the top 10 in both categories. Love's versatility offers Cleveland the possibility of playing big and controlling the offensive glass while also spacing the floor.
[h=3]Good enough to win?[/h]For the regular season, the Cavaliers' mix of hyper-efficient offense and average-to-slightly-worse defense should make them one of the league's best teams. The obvious comparison is to the Mike D'Antoni Phoenix Suns, who ranked among the top 10 offense in the NBA relative to league average in both 2004-05 and 2006-07, with defenses near average. Those Suns won 62 and 61 games, respectively, and that's a good guess for Cleveland. More often than not, such win totals have been good enough for the NBA's best record.
The playoffs are a slightly different story. There is evidence that good defenses tend to beat good offenses in the NBA Finals, and only one team has won the title with a below-average regular-season defense since the merger. (That team, the 2001 Los Angeles Lakers, was a major fluke; those Lakers had the league's best defense in the playoffs.)
Of course, just because something hasn't happened doesn't mean it can't happen, and we might look at the importance of defense differently had the 2007 Phoenix-San Antonio series played out differently. Still, the preliminary look at the 2014-15 Cavaliers suggests the most important newcomer on the roster isn't James or Love; it's Blatt, since his ability to mold this group into an above-average defense may well determine whether Cleveland can meet lofty expectations.
