[h=1]Best 2015 NBA title value bets[/h][h=3]San Antonio Spurs among best value bets after Kevin Love deal[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Dave Tuley[/FONT] and [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Erin Rynning[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- When the "news" broke Aug. 7 that the Cleveland Cavaliers reached a deal in principle to acquire Kevin Love from Minnesota, it was met with a collective yawn in the sports betting community.
Because of the NBA's rule that a player can't be traded within 30 days of signing a contract -- which applied to Cleveland rookie Andrew Wiggins, the key player acquired by the Timberwolves -- the teams had to tiptoe around saying anything official.
However, now that the deal has been consummated, the Cavaliers are offered as 3-1 favorites to win the title at the LVH SuperBook and have stayed at that number, with bettors more interested in NFL preseason games.
In fact, a bigger recent impact to the NBA's odds came after Paul George's injury at Team USA practice here in Vegas. The Pacers were raised from 15-1 to win the NBA title to 60-1 with other contenders' odds tweaked a little lower.
With the Cavs now the odds-on favorite for the 2015 NBA title, which teams represent the best value bets?
[h=4]2014-2015 NBA FUTURES[/h](Courtesy LVH SuperBook)
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[h=3]Dave Tuley's take[/h]
San Antonio Spurs (7-2 and higher)
I don't often make a case for one of the favorites being a value bet, but this looks like a worthy exception. <offer>The Spurs are down to 7-2 at the LVH after the latest adjustment. They might have been a little higher if not for the George injury, but I've also seen them at 9-2 and 5-1 at offshore books. With all the focus being on LeBron James, Love and Carmelo Anthony, the Spurs quietly re-signed most of their team. Sure, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are a year older (aren't we all?), but the Spurs have plenty of young talent, too, and it's their balance that shined through in the playoffs under the direction of Gregg Popovich.</offer>
The biggest obstacle, of course, is they have to battle through the tough Western Conference -- with the Thunder, Clippers and Rockets posing the biggest challenges -- but they should be right there in the mix again next season, and any increase in odds looks like potential value.
<offer style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); line-height: 16.6200008392334px;">
Washington Wizards (25-1)</offer>
I'm going to stick with my long-shot pick from the column that we did right after the NBA Finals. I'm a little down on my top pick at that time -- the Los Angeles Clippers, as the Donald Sterling situation took longer to clear up than anticipated -- but I still think the Wizards are the dark horse in the Eastern Conference. As mentioned in that piece, it was key to keep center Marcin Gortat, and they did. It was a downer that they lost Trevor Ariza, but they picked up Paul Pierce in the process, and his veteran leadership might be key in bringing this up-and-coming talented young team together.
I'm thinking that the better wager might be for the Wiz to win the East (currently 11-1 at the LVH), rather than picking them to beat a team like the Spurs in the NBA Finals.
[h=3]Erin Rynning's take[/h]
Chicago Bulls (7-1)
I gave valid reasons for the Bulls as a sleeper for the 2015 NBA title back in June, and a few things have now fallen in their favor. While LeBron James didn't sign with Chicago, his move to Cleveland helped the Bulls' stock. No question, if James re-signed with the Heat, they would be the worthy favorite in the East. However, with his move back to the Cavaliers, the footing is much more equal, and in fact, I believe the Bulls should be the favorite in the Eastern Conference.
The Cavaliers will still have to work through chemistry issues. They'll need to gain experience together, while new coach David Blatt will be a rookie in the league. Defense will be a major question mark for the Cavaliers as well. As long as Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau is around, defense will certainly not be an issue for Chicago: The Bulls ranked second, sixth and second over the last three years in defensive efficiency.
Of course, it's on the offensive end of the court where Chicago has faced difficulties. The Bulls are making moves to shore up their output on the offensive end, and obviously the return of Derrick Rose takes pressure off the other four players on the court. The addition ofPau Gasol will help this team in the half court, and I expect a comeback year for the big man. Nabbing rookie Doug McDermott in the draft is another upgrade on offense, as his all-around play on that end of the court is undervalued. With the Pacers and Heat wilting, and the Cavaliers yet to flower, the Bulls are my top pick to get through the East.
<offer style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); line-height: 16.6200008392334px;">
Portland Trail Blazers (40-1)</offer>
<offer style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); line-height: 16.6200008392334px;"></offer>
The price is worth paying attention to with this bet. Of course, the Blazers would be a huge long shot just to get to the Finals out of the rugged West. The Rockets were another team I liked, but free agency didn't go their way. Remember, the Blazers got off to a sweet start last season with a 22-4 record as the top contender in the Western Conference. Eventually, Portland hit a few roadblocks and LaMarcus Aldridge missed a number of games. Still, this team finished with an identical record to Miami's. This young nucleus of Aldridge, Wes Matthews, Damian Lillardand Nicolas Batum features much room to grow. The Blazers are a major player in the future of the Western Conference, and worth a shot at this price.
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Dave Tuley[/FONT] and [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Erin Rynning[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- When the "news" broke Aug. 7 that the Cleveland Cavaliers reached a deal in principle to acquire Kevin Love from Minnesota, it was met with a collective yawn in the sports betting community.
Because of the NBA's rule that a player can't be traded within 30 days of signing a contract -- which applied to Cleveland rookie Andrew Wiggins, the key player acquired by the Timberwolves -- the teams had to tiptoe around saying anything official.
However, now that the deal has been consummated, the Cavaliers are offered as 3-1 favorites to win the title at the LVH SuperBook and have stayed at that number, with bettors more interested in NFL preseason games.
In fact, a bigger recent impact to the NBA's odds came after Paul George's injury at Team USA practice here in Vegas. The Pacers were raised from 15-1 to win the NBA title to 60-1 with other contenders' odds tweaked a little lower.
With the Cavs now the odds-on favorite for the 2015 NBA title, which teams represent the best value bets?
[h=4]2014-2015 NBA FUTURES[/h](Courtesy LVH SuperBook)
| Team | June 16 | July 11 | Aug. 7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cavaliers | 60-1 | 4-1 | 3-1 |
| Spurs | 9-2 | 4-1 | 7-2 |
| Thunder | 9-2 | 9-2 | 9-2 |
| Bulls | 12-1 | 6-1 | 7-1 |
| Clippers | 10-1 | 10-1 | 8-1 |
| Rockets | 20-1 | 16-1 | 20-1 |
| Warriors | 20-1 | 25-1 | 20-1 |
| Heat | 5-2 | 40-1 | 25-1 |
| Wizards | 30-1 | 20-1 | 25-1 |
| Grizzlies | 40-1 | 50-1 | 25-1 |
| Mavericks | 40-1 | 40-1 | 30-1 |
| Trail Blazers | 30-1 | 40-1 | 40-1 |
| Nets | 40-1 | 40-1 | 40-1 |
| Raptors | 50-1 | 40-1 | 40-1 |
| Knicks | 50-1 | 50-1 | 40-1 |
| Hornets | 60-1 | 60-1 | 40-1 |
| Pacers | 12-1 | 15-1 | 60-1 |
| Hawks | 60-1 | 50-1 | 60-1 |
| Suns | 60-1 | 60-1 | 60-1 |
| Nuggets | 50-1 | 60-1 | 75-1 |
| Pelicans | 50-1 | 100-1 | 75-1 |
| Timberwolves | 50-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 |
| Lakers | 50-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 |
| Celtics | 60-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 |
| Magic | 100-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 |
| Jazz | 100-1 | 200-1 | 200-1 |
| Kings | 100-1 | 200-1 | 200-1 |
| Pistons | 100-1 | 200-1 | 200-1 |
| Bucks | 300-1 | 300-1 | 200-1 |
| 76ers | 200-1 | 500-1 | 500-1 |
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I don't often make a case for one of the favorites being a value bet, but this looks like a worthy exception. <offer>The Spurs are down to 7-2 at the LVH after the latest adjustment. They might have been a little higher if not for the George injury, but I've also seen them at 9-2 and 5-1 at offshore books. With all the focus being on LeBron James, Love and Carmelo Anthony, the Spurs quietly re-signed most of their team. Sure, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are a year older (aren't we all?), but the Spurs have plenty of young talent, too, and it's their balance that shined through in the playoffs under the direction of Gregg Popovich.</offer>
The biggest obstacle, of course, is they have to battle through the tough Western Conference -- with the Thunder, Clippers and Rockets posing the biggest challenges -- but they should be right there in the mix again next season, and any increase in odds looks like potential value.
I'm going to stick with my long-shot pick from the column that we did right after the NBA Finals. I'm a little down on my top pick at that time -- the Los Angeles Clippers, as the Donald Sterling situation took longer to clear up than anticipated -- but I still think the Wizards are the dark horse in the Eastern Conference. As mentioned in that piece, it was key to keep center Marcin Gortat, and they did. It was a downer that they lost Trevor Ariza, but they picked up Paul Pierce in the process, and his veteran leadership might be key in bringing this up-and-coming talented young team together.
I'm thinking that the better wager might be for the Wiz to win the East (currently 11-1 at the LVH), rather than picking them to beat a team like the Spurs in the NBA Finals.
I gave valid reasons for the Bulls as a sleeper for the 2015 NBA title back in June, and a few things have now fallen in their favor. While LeBron James didn't sign with Chicago, his move to Cleveland helped the Bulls' stock. No question, if James re-signed with the Heat, they would be the worthy favorite in the East. However, with his move back to the Cavaliers, the footing is much more equal, and in fact, I believe the Bulls should be the favorite in the Eastern Conference.
The Cavaliers will still have to work through chemistry issues. They'll need to gain experience together, while new coach David Blatt will be a rookie in the league. Defense will be a major question mark for the Cavaliers as well. As long as Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau is around, defense will certainly not be an issue for Chicago: The Bulls ranked second, sixth and second over the last three years in defensive efficiency.
Of course, it's on the offensive end of the court where Chicago has faced difficulties. The Bulls are making moves to shore up their output on the offensive end, and obviously the return of Derrick Rose takes pressure off the other four players on the court. The addition ofPau Gasol will help this team in the half court, and I expect a comeback year for the big man. Nabbing rookie Doug McDermott in the draft is another upgrade on offense, as his all-around play on that end of the court is undervalued. With the Pacers and Heat wilting, and the Cavaliers yet to flower, the Bulls are my top pick to get through the East.
<offer style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); line-height: 16.6200008392334px;"></offer>
The price is worth paying attention to with this bet. Of course, the Blazers would be a huge long shot just to get to the Finals out of the rugged West. The Rockets were another team I liked, but free agency didn't go their way. Remember, the Blazers got off to a sweet start last season with a 22-4 record as the top contender in the Western Conference. Eventually, Portland hit a few roadblocks and LaMarcus Aldridge missed a number of games. Still, this team finished with an identical record to Miami's. This young nucleus of Aldridge, Wes Matthews, Damian Lillardand Nicolas Batum features much room to grow. The Blazers are a major player in the future of the Western Conference, and worth a shot at this price.
