Service Plays Saturday 8/30/14

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Dave Essler

3* Georgia Southern

Fezzik

UCF pk

PHILLYGODFATHER

EARLY COLLEGE RELEASE

(184) OHIO/Kent State UNDER 49.5

Northcoast

Early Bird play

Ohio St -13.5

NorthCoast

Comp line Button # 3 Underdog of the week Wisconsin + 5

Sheep

1000* Ohio St -15

Steve Fezzik

Clemson/GA under 57.5. Triple Dime

Dave Cokin

183 Ohio +3
187 Western Michigan +11

Phil Steele Inside the Pressbox

BEST BET: OHIO ST 40 NAVY 20
BEST BET: GEORGIA 37 CLEMSON 24

EZWINNERS

Virginia Cavaliers +21

Virginia enters this game on a nine game losing streak, but I like them to keep this game within the big three touchdown number. The Cavs return seventeen starters from last years team and they have a pretty solid recruiting class of young talent. UCLA should contend for a national championship with seventeen returning starters themselves including their quarterback Brett Hundley, but this is a ton of points to be laying on the road in the first game of the season on the opposite coast. This is the largest road favorite role for the Bruins in sixteen years. This is also the first time that UCLA has played in the eastern time zone since 2009 and its a noon eastern kickoff time which is 9am local time in Los Angeles. We see west coast NFL teams struggle in this spot all the time and I expect the same for the Bruins against a Virginia team that has talent on its roster. Take the points.


Arkansas Razorbacks +20.5

Auburn is coming off of an incredible season last year that saw them make a run all the way to the BCS Championship game and the Tigers come into this game having covered the spread in eleven straight games. I expect them to be over priced especially early in the season and I will gladly take the points with Arkansas in this game. The Hogs showed improvement at the end of last season and I think they can have success moving the football in this game. Auburn did have some issues stopping the run last season as they gave up over 160 yards per game on the ground at over 4.5 yards per carry and Arkansas will put that defense to the test in this game. The Razorbacks have two solid running backs in Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins who should be able to keep the chains and the clock moving. Take the points.


Florida State Seminoles -17.5

It might look very tempting to take the generous amount of points with an Oklahoma State team that has had a very high scoring offense in recent history, but I believe that FSU will win big in this game. The Cowboys are one of the least experienced teams in college football heading into this season as they have just eight returning starters. OSU has lost a ton of productive players from last years team including every one of their All Big XII Conference players. The Noles are the most talented team in the nation and should use this national telecast to remind everyone that they are the team to beat. FSU was 11-2-1 against the spread last year, so I do expect Vegas to start inflating their numbers, but this is a bad spot for an inexperienced Cowboys to kick of their season. Defending nation champions the last fifteen years have one their opening game by an average of 31 points per game. Lay the points.

Nite Owl Sports

Penn State vs. Central Florida
Play: Central Florida Pk

The college FB season is still two weeks away, but as long as lines are posted on the week one games, which they now are at most books, there is no reason to hold off on getting down at a good early line on any game(s) that we have isolated for picks and possible big picks. And this game is clearly one of them, where George O’Leary takes his UCF Golden Knights to his beloved Ireland to face off in Dublin against a Penn State team that UCF used LY as a “spring board” to their “break-out” season, culminating in a (not so) shocking 10 point “upset” of heavily favored (by 17 points) Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl. As you may recall, UCF got their first “signature win” of the season by “upsetting” Penn State 34-31 in (not so) “Happy Valley” as 4 point dogs, then followed that up a few weeks later with a much bigger road upset win, beating L Ville and Heisman candidate Teddy Bridgewater in a nationally televised 38-35 comeback thriller at “the John” (Papa John’s Stadium in L Ville, Ky). UCF went on to win the newly formed American Conference to qualify for an automatic BCS Bowl bid, and with their huge upset bowl win over befuddled Baylor, shut up the detractors of that conference, many of who claimed it was just a slightly modified version of the “Big Least” Conference (which in actuality it was), which had sent some pretty crappy teams to BCS bowls as automatic qualifiers in recent years. And in that Fiesta Bowl, UCF QB Blake Bortles and his mates proved that they not only deserved their BCS Bowl spot, but were clearly one of the better BCS bowl teams. Those 3 upset wins LY made O’Leary’s UCF 3-2 SU and 5-0 ATS L2Y against legitimate BCS “power teams” (although counting LY’s Penn State team as a member of that elite group is admittedly stretching it a bit). Of course, Bortles is gone, having moved on to an even bigger challenge in the NFL, that of resurrecting the moribund Jacksonville Jags. But the cupboard is hardly bare for coach O’Leary, whose Irish eyes were likely still “smiling” when he saw his list of 39 returning lettermen, which includes 15 starters (8 of them on defense) from LY’s record-setting team, whose only loss (certainly nothing to be ashamed of) was a 4 point nail biter to Steve Spurrier’s South Carolina Fighting (Game) Cocks and his All American “beast” Jadevon Clowney, aka “the Clown.” Also notable is the fact that O’Leary is not only 10-1 ATS L7 years in his first two lined games of the season, but also 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS L3Y in those first two lined games. We have not yet said a thing about UCF’s opponent in this game, Penn State, and we’ll start by giving “kudos” to their AD for getting “up off the mat” admirably (by scoring a quick hire of the very successful and well regarded Vandy coach James Franklin, a native Pennsylvanian) after getting “blind-sided” by the sudden departure last December of (now former) Penn State head coach, “Bullshit Bill” O’Brien, who lunged at the first NFL head coaching position (Houston) that was offered to him after just two seasons in Happy Valley, after having sworn to Penn State officials that he was “in it for the long haul” when he took the job at State College after the Jerry Sandusky scandal imploded and resulted in the abrupt dismissal of long-time college FB coaching icon Joe Paterno. However, that is the limit of our kudos for Penn State, whose wimpy administration and Board of Trustees allowed the NCAA to have its way with them, including assessing $60 million in fines, disqualifying Penn State from bowls for a few years, and drastically cutting their allotment of football scholarships, all for stuff (the fall-out from the Sandusky scandal) that was admittedly awful, but which was clearly outside the NCAA’s jurisdiction for assessing those harsh sanctions (and I say that not just as a casual observer giving an “off the cuff’ opinion on the subject, but as an experienced, retired attorney giving an informed but informal legal opinion). In any event, while Penn State managed to “survive” the aftermath of “Sandusky-gate” with two surprisingly respectable seasons L2Y (going 8-4 in 2012 and 7-5 LY), due to a number of the previously Paterno-recruited “blue chip” players having bought into “Bullshit Bill’s” promises about staying there long term, we believe this could very well be the year that the “chickens come home to roost” in Happy Valley, in terms of Penn State’s lack of quality depth starting to take its toll, with the NCAA scholarship limitations and other sanctions now having been in effect for two years. In fact, looking at Penn State’s upcoming schedule TY, coupled with the fact that “transitional seasons” (like what this one is for new Penn State HC Franklin) usually do not go well, with even some of the best coaches having had rough first years taking over a different team and program, and installing their new “systems” while having to get familiar with a bunch of “new faces,” and vice-versa, we would be very surprised if the “Nitts” end up with a winning record TY, and not shocked if they win five games or less. A final reason why we like UFC here is that UCF coach George O’Leary has been “lobbying” for years for the chance to take his UCF Golden Knights to his beloved Ireland to face off in Dublin against a high profile but beatable team like Penn State. And when this match-up was finalized, and contracts were signed committing both schools to play this game, UCF had gotten itself “on the map” in college FB with a 12-4 season in 2012, culminating with a minor bowl win, and this looked like a good, interesting match-up in Ireland, between two high profile Irish head FB coaches who were long-time friends, O’Leary and his then coaching counterpart at Penn State, “Bullshit Bill” O’Brien. As we all know, O’Brien is no longer part of the picture for this game (except for the emotional scars that his abrupt and dishonest departure may have left on his former team members), but that in no way reduces how badly O’Leary wants his team to not only win this game but make a good showing doing it. So based on all of the above support, and getting an early ”UCF-friendly” line of “pick” here, we are all over this one. And while we are unable to assign units to our picks on this site (with each pick counted by the site’s record keeping “system” as a 100 unit play), we typically rate our picks from 2-5 units, and would rate this one a very strong 4 or 5 units at this early line. And we strongly recommend playing UCF NOW (rather than later) at this good price, which we doubt will still be around by the week before the game. Sure, we realize that similar to bowl games, these “out of country games’ involve travel, hotels, lots of ‘free time” and thus plenty of distractions for these young men, which can result in suspensions if they don’t handle those distractions well- but that applies equally to both teams, and so we’ll play UCF now at this good price and take our chances with any game week suspensions or discipline.

Esquire Picks

Georgia -7.5 ($2,000) TOP NCAAF PICK OF THE WEEK

Wisconsin +5 ($500) MEDIUM NCAAF PICK OF THE WEEK

From THE PLATINUM SHEET

PENN STATE (155) AT UCF (156)
Latest Line: UCF -1

As 4 1/2-point road underdogs, UCF beat Penn State 34-31 last September. Knights QB Pete DiNovo has huge shoes to fill under center, though he has plenty of WR talent at his disposal and UCF's reliable defense returns eight starters. Nittany Lions RB Zach Zwinak tallied 147 total yards and three TD in last year's meeting. PSU QB Christian Hackenberg is going to be special, but enters his sophomore year with a weak O-line and a lack of experienced WRs. Note the 8:30 a.m. Eastern start time in Ireland.

STATFOX FORECASTER: UCF 32, Penn State 25

Dr. Bob

Arkansas

California

Prediction Machine Sides

Sat Aug. 30th ATS

Rot3 Pick Opp Line Pick%
197 FLAST OKST -17.5 61.5
156 UCF PSU -1.5 59.2
163 TROY @ UAB 2.5 58.6
169 FLAATL @ NEB 23 58.1
204 WISC LSU 5 58.1 166 @ NW CAL -10.5 57.6
195 WASH @ HAWAII -17 57.2
161 APP @ MICH 34.5 56.7
181 CLEM @ UGA 7.5 56.3
189 IDAHO @ FLA 36.5 56
179 ARK @ AUBURN 21 55.9
158 @ NAVY OHIOST 14 55.4

LCM Sports

Georgia Bulldogs

Saturday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider

Clemson at Georgia

As of late Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had Georgia listed as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 55. Gamblers can back the Tigers on the money line for a +250 return (risk $100 to win $250). The number for the side opened at 8.5, while the 'over/under' started at 58 before steadily coming down.

Georgia's 2013 season was marred by injuries and ended with a disappointing 24-19 loss to Nebraska at the Gator Bowl. The Bulldogs finished 8-5 straight up and they were horrible for our purposes, finished with an abysmal 3-9-1 spread record. Four of UGA's losses were one-possession games, and three of its defeats were gut-wrenching heartbreakers.

The first back-breaking setback came at Clemson in the opener. The Tigers won a 38-35 decision and UGA failed to convert a short field goal in the fourth quarter when the holder couldn't handle a snap. When Mark Richt's team went to Nashville, it let a lead get away at crunch time in a 31-27 loss to Vanderbilt. On the Plains in November, a terrific second-half comeback was wasted when Auburn hit a bomb for a touchdown on a fourth-and-long play after a pair of UGA defenders deflected the pass directly into the hands of a streaking wide receiver.

Senior QB Hutson Mason finally gets his chance as the starter after backing up the departed Aaron Murray, who threw for a school-record 13,166 career passing yards. When Murray tore his ACL in a home win over Kentucky in late November, Mason got a pair of starting assignments. In his first on The Flats, UGA trailed Georgia Tech by 13 at intermission before Mason orchestrated a rally. He threw for 299 yards and a pair of TDs in a 41-34 double-overtime victory. In the loss to Nebraska, Mason threw for 320 yards but a third-quarter interception gave the Cornhuskers a short field and proved to be costly.

UGA returns six starters on offense and eight on defense. RB Todd Gurley is healthy after battling a nagging ankle injury that forced him to miss three full games and a good chunk of a win over LSU. Nevertheless, Gurley still ran for 989 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 6.0 yards per carry. The Dawgs have the country's best 1-2 combo of RBs now that Keith Marshall is also healthy. Marshall went down with a torn ACL in a win at Tennessee in early October. Marshall ran for 759 yards (6.5 YPC) as a true freshman in 2012.

UGA senior WR Malcolm Mitchell saw his 2013 campaign end in the opener at Clemson when he was injured in an end-zone celebration. Bad luck hit Mitchell again when he got hurt at the first practice in August. The knee injury has him listed as 'doubtful' on Saturday. Also, WR Justin Scott-Wesley is suspended.

Clemson returns five starters on offense and seven on defense from a team that went 11-2 SU and 7-6 ATS. The defection on offense are crucial, though. The Tigers must replace the school's all-time leader in passing yards (Tajh Boyd) and receiving yards (Sammy Watkins). Boyd blew up Charlie Whitehurst's career numbers early in his senior year in which he posted a 34/11 TD-INT ratio. The production of Watkins (101 catches, 1,464 yards and 12 TDs in 2013) will be impossible to replace.

Clemson's only losses last season came to top-five teams (vs. FSU and at South Carolina), but we should note that its only regular-season victory over a ranked foe came in the opener vs. UGA. With that said, the Tigers probably had their best performance in their last time out when they captured a 40-35 win over Ohio State as 2.5-point underdogs at the Orange Bowl.

Senior QB Cole Stoudt takes over as the starter under center. He has a stellar 8/1 TD-INT ratio but has never really seen meaningful playing time. In 2013, Stoudt completed 47-of-59 throws (79.7%) for 415 yards and five TDs without being intercepted. True freshman Deshaun Watson, the prize of Clemson's 2014 recruiting class, could see some playing time.

Dabo Swinney probably has the best combo of coordinators in the country with OC Chad Morris and DC Brent Venables. The latter has done a tremendous job in his two years since coming to Clemson after 13 seasons at Oklahoma, and his 'D' in 2014 should be the Tigers' best in at least a decade. This unit is led by DE Vic Beasley, who earned first-team All-American honors as a junior by registering 13 sacks, 10 tackles for loss and 12 QB hurries.

As a road underdog during Swinney's tenure, Clemson owns a 6-3 spread record.

Since 2004, UGA has struggled as a home favorite with a 24-32-2 ATS ledger.

ESPN will have the broadcast at 5:30 p.m. Eastern.

Florida State vs. Oklahoma State

As of late Thursday afternoon, most spots had FSU listed as an 18-point favorite with a total of 63.5. Bettors can take the Cowboys to win outright for a +650 payout (risk $100 to win $650).

FSU is set to defend the school's third national title when it makes its first appearance at Jerry World in Arlington, TX. The Seminoles have won 16 in a row and haven't tasted defeat since Florida won by a 37-27 count in Tallahassee in late November of 2012.

Jameis Winston led FSU to a 14-0 SU record and an 11-2-1 ATS mark. He shredded defenses for 4,057 passing yards with a 40/10 TD-INT ratio. Winston also ran for four scores.

Jimbo Fisher's team brings back seven starters on offense and six on defense. The defense lost five of its top six tacklers, while the offense lost leading rusher Devonta Freeman (14 rushing TDs) and WRs Kelvin Benjamin (15 TD catches) and Kenny Shaw (54 receptions, 933 yards & six TDs).

Despite the departures of Benjamin and Shaw, Winston has a pair of All-American candidates to target in WR Rashad Greene and TE Nick O'Leary. Green had a team-high 76 receptions for 1,128 yards and nine TDs last season, while O'Leary hauled in 33 catches for 557 yards and seven TDs.

FSU went 10-2-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite last season.

Oklahoma State has lost a lot of talent from a 2013 squad that finished 10-3 SU and 8-5 ATS. The Cowboys lost by nine at West Virginia, by nine against Oklahoma and by 10 against Missouri at the Cotton Bowl. However, all three of those games were much closer than the final score indicated and OSU was in position to win all three of those contests midway through the fourth quarter.

Mike Gundy's team returns just eight total starters (four on each side of the ball). Junior QB J.W. Walsh is the starting QB after Clint Chelf departed. Walsh has eight career starts and a 22/8 career TD-INT ratio. Chelf has last year's leading rusher Desmond Roland back in the mix. Roland ran for 811 yards and 13 TDs while averaging 4.6 YPC. Gundy will have a new weapon at his disposal in prize recruit Tyreek Hill, a world-class sprinter who will play both WR and RB and might even get touches out of a Wildcat-type formation. OSU fans can look for Hill to make a lot of explosive plays, and the Cowboys will need several Saturday night if they're thinking upset.

Oklahoma State lost eight of its top nine tacklers from one of its best defenses during Gundy's tenure. The unit allowed only 21.6 PPG but must replace a slew of key players.

This is the richest underdog spot for Oklahoma State since a 36-10 loss at Texas as an 18-point 'dog way back in 2006.

Kick-off is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ABC.

Wisconsin vs. LSU

This meeting of SEC and Big Ten powers will take place in Houston. Then in 2015, LSU will travel to Lambeau Field in Green Bay to face Wisconsin.

As of late Thursday afternoon, most books had LSU installed as a five-point favorite with a total of 50 for 'over/under' wagers. The Tigers are -200 on the money line, while the Badgers are +170 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $170).

Les Miles's team went 10-3 SU and 6-7 ATS in 2013. The Tigers dropped a pair of heartbreakers on the road at Georgia (44-41) and at Ole Miss (27-24). They closed the season with a 21-14 non-covering win over Iowa as 7.5-point 'chalk' at the Outback Bowl.

LSU returns five starters on offense and seven on defense. It lost its top four offensive players to the NFL Draft, including QB Zach Mettenberger, RB Jeremy Hill, WR Jarvis Landry and WR Odell Beckham Jr. Nevertheless, the Tigers have a solid offensive line and an outstanding trio of RBs. Despite backing up Hill, Terrence Magee rushed for 626 yards and eight TDs while averaging 7.3 YPC. Kenny Hilliard, who was the MVP of the 2011 SEC Championship Game as a freshman, had seven rushing scores last season and averaged 4.6 YPC. Miles also landed the nation's No. 1 RB in the 2014 class, Leonard Fournette. If Fournette is 'as advertised,' LSU fans can count on an eighth double-digit win season in the 10th year of Miles's tenure.

LSU is expected to play both of its QBs against Wisconsin. Anthony Jennings got one start last season against Iowa, but he didn't look sharp in the winning effort. To his credit, however, Jennings replaced an injured Mettenberger in a tie game and threw a game-winning TD pass to beat Arkansas in the regular-season finale. Brandon Harris was more impressive in the spring game, though, as Jennings threw a pair of pick-sixes.

Wisconsin brings back seven starters on offense and three on defense from a team that went 9-4 both SU and ATS. The Badgers lost three one-possession games last season and dropped a 34-24 decision to South Carolina at the Capital One Bowl. One of those defeats, a 32-30 setback at Arizona State, can be blamed on Gary Andersen, who made a knucklehead clock-management decision that prevented his team from being able to attempt a short field goal for the win. They basically lost their entire front seven, including All-American LB Chris Borland, so inexperience on defense is a concern.

Wisconsin's Joel Stave started all 13 games at QB last year and six as a redshirt freshman in 2012. But Andersen named Tanner McEvoy as the starter vs. LSU last week. McEvoy provides more of a scrambling dynamic, but he played safety for the Badgers last season. Andersen clearly wants a more mobile QB in the mold of his signal caller Chuckie Keeton at Utah St.

The catalyst for UW is junior RB Melvin Gordon, who is a legit Heisman candidate. Gordon rushed for 1,609 yards and 12 TDs while averaging 7.8 YPC in 2013. Those numbers earned the speedster third-team All-American honors. Gordon will run behind an offensive line that's ranked tops in the Big Ten by Phil Steele.

UW lost its top four pass catchers, including perennial All Big Ten selection Jared Abbrederis.

ESPN will provide television coverage at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.