STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAACF REPORT
SUNDAY, AUGUST 31st 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** NCAA College Football Information - Week #1 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014 NCAA College Football season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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NCAA College Football News and Notes - Week #1
•Texas Tech Extends Kingsbury's Contract: Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury received a three-year contract extension through 2020, the university announced Friday. Kingsbury's original deal was for five years when he was hired in December 2012. According to Fox Sports, the new contract is worth $24.2 million, an average of $3.5 million per season, and was signed Friday. The new contract would make him the fourth highest-paid coach in the Big 12 behind Oklahoma's Bob Stoops, Baylor's Art Briles and Texas' Charlie Strong. Texas Tech also announced plans to upgrade the football stadium and training facilities.
Kingsbury led the Red Raiders to a 8-5 record in his first season as head coach. "This is where I want to be and I couldn't be happier," Kingsbury said in a statement. "I can't wait to take this thing to the next level." Texas Tech opened the season Saturday against Central Arkansas. "There has never been a more exciting time within our football program than now," Texas Tech athletic director Kirby Hocutt said. "I am very proud of the program Coach Kingsbury is building and I know our fans are as well. We can't wait to kick off the season tomorrow night at Jones AT&T Stadium and are looking forward to a bright future."
•Aggies' Win Pays Off For Furniture Store: Texas A&M's 52-28 win over South Carolina on Thursday night delivered more than $1 million worth of free furniture for Aggies fans. The Ashley Furniture branch in College Station offered all furniture purchased from Aug. 16-27 for free if Texas A&M beat South Carolina by at least 10 points. Store owner Mark Wilks told ESPN.com on Thursday night that more than 600 people bought items during that span, which totaled more than $1 million in sales. One customer bought $20,000 worth of furniture. "We've wanted to do this for three or four years now," said Wilks, whose store is an official sponsor of Aggies athletics. "This was really good for us."
Wilks said that because of the promotion, his store had its best month of sales since opening eight years ago. Wilks said he was able to get insurance relatively cheap because Texas A&M was a 10 1/2-point underdog. He added that he will pay the insurance company about 15 percent of the total the store is reimbursing to customers. "We're going to have a big check-writing party at the store," he said. Jordan's Furniture of Massachusetts and Houston-based Gallery Furniture had similar promotions in the past. Jordan's gave away more than $30 million worth of furniture when the Boston Red Sox won the World Series in 2007. Gallery gave away $7 million in furniture when the Seattle Seahawks won the Super Bowl in February. Jordan's had insurance on its promotion but Gallery Furniture said it did not.
•Bo Pelini Calls Marijuana 'Out Of Control' In Society: Bo Pelini veered off topic on Friday morning at the Big Red Breakfast and took a strong stance against marijuana, telling a crowd of about 250 that it’s a “real problem out there.” Pelini called it not only an issue in high schools, middle schools and even grade schools, but society in general, saying, “It is out of control.” “Let’s face it, it’s not OK,” Pelini said. “I think everybody that’s our age, my age, hopefully understands that it’s not OK. It’s not good. It’s not good for you. And these kids do it on a daily basis and a yearly basis... and it’s a real problem out there.
“Fortunately for us it is not (an issue) in our program. But I can tell you around college football and college athletics... serious in college. I guarantee you walk into dorms nowadays and it is a horrible problem.” Earlier in his talk, Pelini was discussing the modern challenges that coaches face and what they see with players, families and backgrounds. His comments about marijuana followed when he was asked to expound. “I think it’s something in society we need to get fixed,” he said, “but unfortunately they get bad information.”
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Sunday, 8/31/14
#205 UTAH ST @ #206 TENNESSEE
TIME: 7:00 PM EST, SEC Network
Line: Tennessee -4.5, Total: 51
Tennessee will try for its 20th consecutive victory in a home opener when it meets Utah State on Sunday evening. The rebuilding Volunteers, who feature 28 underclassmen on their season-opening depth chart, are 15-1 against Mountain West Conference teams - 7-0 in season openers - with the loss to Wyoming 13-7 in 2008. The Aggies, who won the MWC Mountain Division last season over Boise State, opens on the road for the fifth time in the last six seasons.
Don't expect Utah State to be intimidated even though they are playing an SEC team on the road in front of the largest crowd in school history (Neyland Stadium holds 102,455). Star quarterback Chuckie Keeton, the preseason MWC Offensive Player of the Year, said he is 100 percent after missing the final half of the 2013 season with a knee injury. Keeton nearly engineered an upset at defending national champion Auburn in his first college start in 2011 when the Tigers needed two touchdowns and an onside kick recovery in the final 2:07 to pull out a 42-38 victory.
•ABOUT UTAH STATE (2013: 9-5): The Aggies return 11 of 22 starters, including six that earned all-Mountain West honors a year ago. Junior linebacker Kyler Fackrell, senior defensive end B.J. Larsen and senior linebacker Zach Virgil were all-second team picks and anchor a defense that held five of its last seven opponents to 14 points or less and surrendered 106.7 rushing yards per game - eighth in the nation. Keeton, being promoted for the Heisman Trophy by the school, was second in the nation with 17 touchdown passes through five games as a junior before tearing both his ACL and MCL on Oct. 4 against Brigham Young.
•ABOUT TENNESSEE (2013: 5-7): The Volunteers return only 10 returning starters from a squad that lost four of its final five games in their first season under coach Butch Jones. Tennessee is the only team in FBS football that doesn't return a starter on neither line, which has Jones concerned heading into the opener. "I'm worried about the shock value of our team," Jones told reporters.
•PREGAME NOTES: Senior Justin Worley, who went 4-3 as a starter in 2013 before breaking his thumb in the first half of a 45-10 loss at Alabama, was named the starting quarterback for Tennessee.... Volunteers LB A.J. Johnson, a preseason All-American, has 324 career tackles - nine per game.... Utah State has won 15 straight games when it has a 100-yard rusher.
•KEY STATS
--UTAH ST is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UTAH ST 33.3, OPPONENT 16.0.
--TENNESSEE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 52 since 1992.
The average score was TENNESSEE 19.6, OPPONENT 27.3.
--TENNESSEE is 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TENNESSEE 34.8, OPPONENT 29.8.
--TENNESSEE is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TENNESSEE 26.0, OPPONENT 16.9.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
All games in this series since 1992. Note: There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
•RECENT TRENDS
--USU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. SEC.
--USU is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games.
--Under is 5-1 in USU last 6 road games.
--TENN is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.
--TENN is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
--Over is 13-4 in TENN last 17 non-conference games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 56 times, while the favorite covered the spread 20 times. *EDGE against the spread =UTAH ST. In past games, the underdog won the game straight up 47 times, while the favorite won the game straight up 34 times. 66 games went under the total, while 19 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 47 times, while the favorite covered first half line 27 times. *No EDGE. 63 games went under first half total, while 21 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Against - A home team (TENNESSEE) - first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more losses in last 5 games, with 5 offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season.
(35-10 over the last 10 seasons.) (77.8%, +24.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (27-20 over the last 10 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.1
The average score in these games was: Team 27.7, Opponent 26.6 (Average point differential = +1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 24 (51.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (19-7).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (65-29).
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#207 SMU @ #208 BAYLOR
TV: 7:30 PM EST, Fox Sports 1
Line: Baylor -33, Total: 74.5
Tenth-ranked Baylor feels like it still has something to prove when it opens its new $266 million on-campus McLane Stadium on Sunday against visiting Southern Methodist. The reigning Big 12 champion set an NCAA record by scoring 52.4 points per game and led the nation with 618.8 yards in 2013 but finished 2-2 - including a 52-42 loss to Central Florida in the Fiesta Bowl. The Bears' high-flying offense has to replace two running backs and a key lineman but senior quarterback Bryce Petty has lots of targets returning.
"Our offense is going to be unbelievable - faster, stronger and more physical," the Heisman hopeful told the media earlier this month. "We have more athletes than we've had in a long time." Sophomore Neal Burcham won the job to replace SMU quarterback Garrett Gilbert and the Mustangs need an improved defense to aid the transition. SMU's June Jones has never had back-to-back losing seasons in his 15 years as a coach.
•ABOUT SOUTHERN METHODIST (2013: 5-7): Burcham started the final two games in place of injured Gilbert and finished the year completing 58.7 percent of his passes for 556 yards and two touchdowns. Junior receiver Darius Joseph (808 yards, five touchdowns) was ranked second in the American Athletic Conference last year with 103 catches and linebacker-turned-running back Kevin Pope will give the Mustangs depth in the backfield. SMU has three defensive line starters and linebacker Stephon Sanders (86 tackles, 13.5 tackles for loss) returning to a defense that allowed 412.6 yards and 33.3 points last year.
•ABOUT BAYLOR (2013: 11-2): Petty (62 percent completions for 4,200 yards, 32 touchdowns, three interceptions) and the Bears have five of their top six receivers back, including Antwan Goodley (71 catches, 1,339 yards, 13 scores) and Levi Norwood (47, 733, eight), who is on a 27-game reception streak. Shock Linwood will be the primary back after rushing for 881 yards and eight touchdowns last year behind departed 1,000-yard rusher Lache Seastrunk. Linebacker Bryce Hager (71 tackles in nine games before a season-ending injury) and safety Terrell Burt (61 tackles, two interceptions) return to lead a young defense.
•PREGAME NOTES: Baylor led the FBS in touchdown drives in one minute or less (29) and scoring drives of three plays or fewer (21) in 2013.... The series between old Southwest Conference rivals is tied at 36-36-7, but Baylor has won 10 straight meetings.... SMU is the first FBS team to have a Kevlar-fortified liner from Unequal Technologies - expected to reduce the risk of concussions - added to the inside of every football helmet.
•KEY STATS
--SMU is 28-46 ATS (-22.6 Units) in the first month of the season since 1992.
The average score was SMU 19.0, OPPONENT 29.4.
--SMU is 49-22 UNDER (+24.8 Units) the 1rst half total as an underdog versus the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was SMU 8.6, OPPONENT 15.6.
--BAYLOR is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 63 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BAYLOR 60.6, OPPONENT 13.4.
--BAYLOR is 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BAYLOR 55.5, OPPONENT 29.8.
•COACHING TRENDS
--JUNE JONES is 0-9 against the 1rst half line (-9.9 Units) in a road game where the first half total is 31.5 or higher as the coach of SMU.
The average score was SMU 5.0, OPPONENT 21.9.
--JUNE JONES is 16-4 UNDER (+11.6 Units) the 1rst half total in road games in games played on turf as the coach of SMU.
The average score was SMU 10.7, OPPONENT 14.3.
--ART BRILES is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 70 as the coach of BAYLOR.
The average score was BAYLOR 48.9, OPPONENT 19.0.
--ART BRILES is 13-4 OVER (+8.6 Units) in home games in non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was BRILES 43.3, OPPONENT 20.2.
--ART BRILES is 16-4 against the 1rst half line (+11.6 Units) in home games in non-conference games in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was BRILES 25.2, OPPONENT 11.9.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--BAYLOR is 7-0 against the spread versus SMU since 1992.
--BAYLOR is 7-0 straight up against SMU since 1992.
--1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--BAYLOR is 4-2 versus the first half line when playing against SMU since 1992.
--2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--SMU is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in August.
--SMU is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
--Over is 5-1 in SMU last 6 versus Big 12.
--BAY is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games.
--BAY is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
--Over is 4-0 in BAY last 4 non-conference games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 2 times, while the underdog covered the spread 2 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 4 times, while the underdog won straight up 0 times. 2 games went under the total, while 1 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 2 times, while the underdog covered first half line 2 times. *No EDGE. 2 games went over first half total, while 1 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Home favorites (BAYLOR) - incredible offense from last season - averaged 450 or more total yards/game, with an experienced QB versus opponent with inexperienced QB, in the first month of the season.
(31-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.5%, +22.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (40-0 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 33
The average score in these games was: Team 52.3, Opponent 11.9 (Average point differential = +40.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 24 (60% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-4).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (42-14).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (46-19).
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Monday, 9/1/2014
#209 MIAMI @ #210 LOUISVILLE
TV: 8:00 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Louisville -3.5, Total: 53.5
Louisville begins the second Bobby Petrino era - and its inaugural season in the Atlantic Coast Conference - when Miami (Fla.) pays a visit on Monday night in a rematch of last season's Russell Athletic Bowl. Petrino, who coached the Cardinals from 2003-06, returned to Louisville after Charlie Strong became the head coach at Texas. However, the excitement surrounding Petrino's return was tempered somewhat by the loss of star wideout DeVante Parker, who broke his foot in practice Aug. 22 and will miss up to eight weeks.
"We're fortunate that we have a lot of experienced players," Petrino said after losing Parker, who had 55 catches for 885 yards and a school-record 12 touchdowns last season. "You're never going to replace a guy like DeVante with just one guy. You've got to do it collectively with all the weapons that we have, stepping up and making more plays." Perhaps nobody will be more affected by the Parker injury than sophomore quarterback Will Gardner, who was just named Louisville's starter last week. Miami has a challenging quarterback situation of its own as freshman Brad Kaaya takes over behind center with starter Ryan Williams sidelined with a torn ACL.
•ABOUT MIAMI (2013: 9-4): While all eyes will be on Kaaya, the bulk of Hurricanes' heavy lifting on offense will likely be handled by junior running back Duke Johnson, who ranked third in the nation in all-purpose yards per game (174.1) before breaking his ankle in early November. “We have the potential to be great," Johnson said, “but what I’m hoping for is to finally win the Coastal Division and the Atlantic Coast Conference championship. If I need to carry the load then I will, no problem. But I believe I have enough weapons around me to where I don’t have to." Among the weapons that surround Johnson is wideout Stacy Coley, who led the team with seven receiving touchdowns as a freshman in 2013.
•ABOUT LOUISVILLE (2013: 12-1): The Cardinals, who are beginning play in their third conference in as many years, are coming off a season in which they only suffered one defeat - a three-point loss to Central Florida in mid-October - and closed the campaign by routing the Hurricanes, 36-9. Star quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is now with the Minnesota Vikings, leaving Petrino to put his faith in Gardner, who was impressive in limited action last season (8-of-12, 112 yards, two touchdowns, zero interceptions). On defense, Louisville has to replace seven starters but does return its two starting cornerbacks in upperclassmen Charles Gaines and Terell Floyd.
•PREGAME NOTES: Miami went 0-for-11 on third down in the Russell Athletic Bowl.... The Hurricanes lead the all-time series 9-2-1, although the Cardinals have won the last two meetings.... Not only does Louisville need to replace Bridgewater, but the team also lost two other first-round picks in defensive end Marcus Smith and safety Calvin Pryor. Miami had only three players drafted and none in the first two rounds.
•KEY STATS
--MIAMI is 35-15 UNDER (+18.5 Units) when the total is between 49.5 and 56 since 1992.
The average score was MIAMI 26.9, OPPONENT 20.7.
--MIAMI is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus the 1rst half line in road games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 21.1, OPPONENT 18.0.
--LOUISVILLE is 15-4 UNDER (+10.6 Units) as a home favorite of 7 points or less since 1992.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 22.8, OPPONENT 21.5.
--LOUISVILLE is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 19.6, OPPONENT 3.7.
--LOUISVILLE is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total as a favorite versus the 1rst half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 19.6, OPPONENT 3.7.
--LOUISVILLE is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LOUISVILLE 16.3, OPPONENT 5.4.
•COACHING TRENDS
--AL GOLDEN is 34-19 ATS (+13.1 Units) as an underdog in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was GOLDEN 18.3, OPPONENT 30.1.
--AL GOLDEN is 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) the 1rst half total in road games in September games in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was GOLDEN 12.5, OPPONENT 20.6.
--BOB PETRINO is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was PETRINO 37.8, OPPONENT 19.2.
--BOB PETRINO is 31-12 against the 1rst half line (+17.8 Units) as a home favorite versus the 1rst half line in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was PETRINO 23.3, OPPONENT 9.3.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--LOUISVILLE is 3-0 against the spread versus MIAMI since 1992.
--LOUISVILLE is 2-1 straight up against MIAMI since 1992.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--LOUISVILLE is 3-0 versus the first half line when playing against MIAMI since 1992.
--2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MIA is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
--MIA is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
--Over is 7-1 in MIA last 8 games in September.
--LOU is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 conference games.
--Under is 4-1 in LOU last 5 home games.
--Under is 5-1 in LOU last 6 games in September.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 32 times, while the underdog covered the spread 14 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 35 times, while the underdog won straight up 11 times. 38 games went over the total, while 7 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 27 times, while the underdog covered first half line 13 times. *No EDGE. 29 games went over first half total, while 16 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
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