[h=1]2014 Pro Football Betting Guide[/h][h=3]Handicappers' takes on Super Bowl, season win totals, top teams and more[/h]
By Insider Vegas Experts | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- We've had four weeks of preseason, and the opening weekend of college football was a nice appetizer, but the main dish is here as pro football finally kicks off its regular season Thursday night.
The ESPN Insider Pro Football Betting Guide for 2014-15 is below, but the fact is we've been previewing the upcoming season ever since the last one ended. The day after the Seahawks routed the Broncos 43-8 in Super Bowl XLVIII, we looked at the best bets to win Super Bowl XLIX. After the major free-agent signings, we updated the Super Bowl odds in April, then after the schedule was released later in April we looked at over/under season win totals, the Week 1 openers, the Week 2-16 lines in May and finally the division odds in July.
The first lesson to take from this betting guide is when it comes to season-long wagers, it's usually best to bet early. It doesn't take long for wiseguys to find the lines that are "off" and snap up the value. And while there's no guarantee that getting the best number early will result in a winning ticket, in the long run it pays to get the best odds whenever you can.
With the help of four handicappers (Geoff Kulesa, Erin Rynning, Sal Selvaggio and PJ Walsh) and myself, Dave Tuley, this extensive guide covers Super Bowl XLIX value bets, season win totals (both overs and unders), divisional bets, the top teams according to Vegas, the most important players against the spread (ATS) and teams to fade/bet during the season.
For more betting coverage, be sure to check out the new ESPN betting section.
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Dave Tuley: The New Orleans Saints were my pick to win the Super Bowl back in February when the LVH SuperBook opened them at 18-1, and I liked them even better at 20-1 in April. However, the Saints have become a very popular play (handicapper Marc Lawrence joined me in picking them to win the Super Bowl on our panel at the LVH SuperContest Weekend in August and ESPN The Magazine tabbed them as the NFC champion, losing to the Broncos in the Super Bowl in its NFL 2014 preview issue) and they've been bet all the way down to the 7-1 co-third choice at the LVH.
The initial thought is that the value has been sucked out of the Saints' odds, though the fact is that the only "real value" is the team that ends up cashing, so they'd still be my first choice over any other team. They should have less competition in the NFC South and be in great position to secure home-field advantage in the NFC with Rob Ryan expected to continue to improve the defense -- not that they need much D with Drew Brees & Co. capable of putting up 30-plus points on any given Sunday.
My top value pick in the AFC is the San Diego Chargers at 30-1. They put it all together late last season as they won their last four games (and five of their last six) to make the playoffs. They split with the Broncos during the regular season before losing to them in the divisional playoffs, but the gap is closing and the Chargers return almost the same exact team. As the season looms, I think that's the biggest overlay on the board.
Most of the other contenders have been bet down pretty hard, including NFC North division mates Green Bay (from 16-1 to 10-1) and Chicago (from 30-1 to 20-1, though they have since drifted back up to 25-1). The Arizona Cardinals, who will host Super Bowl XLIX, are an intriguing long shot, but their 40-1 price looks short considering they have Seattle and San Francisco in their division.
Geoff Kulesa (aka Wunderdog): To win the Super Bowl in today's NFL, you have to start with an outstanding defense. For this reason, I'm staying away from AFC teams. The Broncos are very likely coming out of the AFC, and while their defense should be improved, I'm not sure it will be elite. Last season's version was good but not great, which is one reason I faded them in the Super Bowl. I think whichever team can make it through the Murderer's Row in the NFC will be battle-tested and hoist the Lombardi trophy. My money is on:
Seattle Seahawks (9-2): It's very hard to repeat in the NFL, and if this team doesn't, it will be due to the "fat and happy" syndrome. They certainly have the talent on both sides of the ball and a great coach. This has been the absolute best team in the NFL for two years running and there's little reason to believe that has changed. Marshawn Lynch probably will take a step backward, but Russell Wilson should continue to improve, which will more than offset any loss of productivity from Lynch. Plus, their defense can stop great opposing passing games in their tracks -- that's what wins playoff games in today's NFL.
San Francisco 49ers (10-1): The 49ers defense had a down year in 2013, but still was one of the league's best. Losses to that defense corps (NaVorro Bowman, Aldon Smith) are cause for concern, but this team is a few plays away from possible back-to-back Super Bowl wins. If Colin Kaepernick continues to improve, and the defense plays great again, the Niners could be the team this year. They certainly will have a very strong motivation after having been so close in recent years. Jim Harbaugh is one of the top coaches in the league.
New Orleans Saints (7-1): The Saints defense went from awful in 2012 to great in 2013 due to Ryan's presence. The D should be even better this season, and it will need to be in order to win it all. On the other side of the ball, the weapons are endless: Brees, Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, Brandin Cooks, Kenny Stills, Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas. Pick your poison.
Sal Selvaggio: Philadelphia Eagles (25-1)
I think this number should be closer to 12-1, making the current price attractive. While Seattle, San Fran and the rest of the NFC West are beating themselves up, the Eagles will be taking on the likes of the Redskins, Cowboys and Giants. Overall, the schedule projects out to one of the easiest in the league, and I think there's a good shot they can snag a first-round bye. Seattle and New Orleans clearly are better teams, but because of the system they run the Eagles have a lot of upside. Kelly is innovative, makes the right decisions based on percentages (and not age-old thinking) and will have a full year of his entire offense at his fingertips. If the defense can just be average, the Eagles could be a very dangerous team come playoff time.
Erin Rynning: Baltimore Ravens (40-1)
The Broncos are currently the betting favorite to win the AFC championship and Super Bowl. It's a deserving distinction, but one that could change in a hurry if Peyton Manning were to go down with an injury. In the search for value, we like the Ravens, a team well-versed in what it takes to win a title. The Ravens were projected to regress last season and they did just that with an 8-8 record. However, it could have been worse considering how poorly Joe Flacco played (22 INTs) along with a nonexistent run game and porous offensive line.
The key to this year's turnaround should come in the form of offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak. In six of his last eight seasons in Houston, Kubiak's offenses ranked in the top 10. The Ravens, meanwhile, haven't featured that type of offense since the 1990s. In the end, once you get past the Broncos, the AFC appears wide open, which makes 40-1 worth a play.
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Tuley: The Seahawks and Broncos start the 2014 NFL season right where they left off: as the top two teams in the league and in the NFL Vegas rankings.
The composite power ratings come from our panel of professional handicappers, including Selvaggio, Rynning and yours truly, using the ratings we use in our own handicapping and averaged out so they're not representative of any one handicapper but the group as a whole.
The ratings are intended to weigh the relative strength of the teams compared to the point spread on a given game. They're not meant as a predicted score (though admittedly my scale with 20 as a midpoint is intended to look like a score for purely aesthetic purposes).
How do we put this into action? Looking at the lines available for Week 1, there are 11 games that are pretty much spot-on or within a point with our rankings after adjusting around 2.5 points for home-field advantage, which is pretty much the industry standard these days (note: teams like the Packers, Patriots and 49ers are typically given a full field goal, while the Broncos and Saints are closer to 3.5 with the Seahawks given 4 points by most handicappers. Teams like the Jets, Raiders and Jaguars will be given just 1.5 points).
Here's a look at the Week 1 games where there appear to be value in the current lines. Again, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers. We don't expect everyone to take these numbers as gospel, so feel free to adjust where you feel the panel gets it wrong.
I'll post my ATS picks for the weekend's games in the "Tuley's Take" column on Friday.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Vegas consensus line: half at Saints -2.5, half at Saints -3
Vegas ranks: Saints -6 (25-19)
We have the Saints tied for the third-highest ranking (25) entering the season, while the Falcons are in the middle of the pack at 19. The six-point margin in favor of the Saints is minimized by the Falcons being at home, but if given 2.5 points for home-field advantage, the Saints are 3.5 points better and above the key number of 3. The play: Saints minus-2.5 if you can get it, but minus-3 still looks good.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Vegas consensus line: Steelers -6.5
Vegas ranks: Steelers -5 (19-14)
The Steelers are rated 5 points better than the Browns, but after adding in home field it climbs to 7.5. Any play on the Steelers laying less than a full touchdown looks like value, but act ASAP as it wouldn't be surprising if the line hits the key number of 7 later in the week.The play: Steelers minus-6.5.
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
Vegas consensus line: Broncos minus-7
Vegas ranks: Broncos -6.5 (26-19.5)
Our power ratings have the Broncos 6.5 points better than the Colts, but when we add 3 points for home field, it balloons to 9.5. And if you give the Broncos 3.5 points for home field, it reaches double digits. The play: Broncos -7.
New York Giants at Detroit Lions (Monday)
Vegas consensus line: Lions -4.5
Vegas ranks: Pick' em (19-19)
In a matchup of two teams with a lot to prove, we see this as pick 'em on a neutral field. The Lions' home field makes them the favorite, but certainly not by anything more than a field goal. The play: Giants +4.5.
Chargers (O/U 8 wins, -120): Obviously, I like this number better now as we get insurance in case the Chargers come up short and push on eight wins. They start with tough games at Arizona and then home versus Seattle, but then have five winnable games with the hardest being the Chiefs in Week 7 before their first meeting with Denver. December is tough with the Patriots, Broncos, 49ers and Chiefs, but I'm counting on them having eight wins in the bank by then and needing just one more to go over.
Saints (10, -160): Just like their Super Bowl odds, this number has been pounded, as it opened at 9.5 and money has flowed in on the over. But clearly I agree with the support if they're to battle for NFC home-field advantage like I expect. The Saints have won 16 straight home games with Sean Payton on the sideline (not counting his 2012 suspension), but even if they don't run the table at home -- they have to face the Packers, 49ers and Bengals in New Orleans -- they should still be able to exceed this number.
Bengals (9, -110): Someone has been fading the Bengals, probably as the Steelers and Ravens are expected to rebound from subpar years, but Cincy backers now get a push if they only win nine. We can debate Andy Dalton's playoff performances, but as far as the regular season is concerned, the Bengals should get to double-digit wins again.
Raiders (5, -130): As the juice has climbed higher, I'm not as enamored with this play and the Raiders' recent history doesn't give much confidence. I agree it's probably better long-term for the Raiders to go with Derek Carr as the starting QB, but for a one-season bet like this I would have preferred if they went with Matt Schaub. Another problem is they're in a tough division and also have to face the four NFC West teams, so I would definitely pass on this now.
Cardinals (7.5, -175): This has also been a popular play, as the Cardinals won 10 last year but missed the playoffs. Bruce Arians has them heading in the right direction, and if the offense can get more consistent so they don't have to rely so much on the defense (sixth in the league last year) to keep them in games, there's no reason they can't be at least 8-8.
Giants (8, +130): This has risen a full game, but the plus-money is attractive. Eli Manningwas struggling during the preseason with the new offense, but their early schedule is relatively soft -- so another 0-6 start like last year is highly unlikely -- and we've come to expect the G-Men to improve over the course of the season.
Wunderdog: Raiders over 5 (-130)
This one is hard, as the Raiders have been bad for so long. This team will struggle again this year, but at some point the price is right. The expectations are so low that we get an aggressively low number here at just five wins. Teams with season win totals set below six wins have exceeded the extra-low totals over 60 percent of the time. This is a very important season for Matt Schaub. He can resurrect his career and show that last year was a fluke. Or he can put one foot into retirement. He will certainly be motivated to perform well when and if he gets his chance. Derek Carr got the call over Schaub in Week 1, which says a lot as Dennis Allen must really have confidence in the rookie. If Carr is good enough to beat out Schaub then I expect good play from him. The Raiders find a way to over five wins this year.
Minnesota Vikings over 6 (-175)
The Vikings managed just a 5-11-1 record in 2013, but they were better than that based on their points scored and points allowed. Why will they likely exceed that number this season? Last season the team couldn't decide on a quarterback, which cost Leslie Frazier his job. This season the situation can only improve, with Matt Cassel starting and Teddy Bridgewater waiting in the wings. Oh, and they still have Adrian Peterson to carry the football. New head coach Mike Zimmer will help the defense and new offensive coordinator Norv Turner will greatly improve the offense. Bad NFL teams with new head coaches typically add another 2-3 wins. I expect the Vikings to win seven to nine games in 2014.
Selvaggio: Ravens over 8.5 (-120)
The two other over plays I liked have been bet up pretty good, but even at minus-120, Baltimore's over is worth a play. The math model I use to project season wins has the mean number at 9.5, so 8.5 is an automatic bet for me. The Ravens had the third-worst offensive rating by the metrics I use, but I am forecasting closer to league average this year. I don't expect Flacco to be dreadful and throw 22 interceptions this year. Baltimore has a relatively easy schedule, and the defense is still very good.
Colts (O/U 9.5 wins, -130): The Colts' back-to-back 11-win seasons are a tribute toAndrew Luck making up for a lot of his team's problems, but he can't do it again, can he? I'm betting against it, and now that the number has risen to 9.5 we get a win instead of a push if they go 9-7.
Bills (6.5, +125): Some people are on the Bills to go over (like Teddy Sevransky in the current ESPN The Magazine), but I'm not buying it. The defense was the team's strength, but they lost safety Jairus Byrd to New Orleans and Kiko Alonso to injury for the season. Losing wide receiver Steve Johnson also hurts, especially if rookie Sammy Watkins is unable to stop getting injured. I just don't see where they'll rack up the wins.
Steelers (8.5, +120): A lot of people think the Steelers will rebound, but I think another 8-8 season is more likely (and we get a plus price). The defense isn't as strong as we usually see from the Steelers and the offense didn't look sharp in the preseason.
Browns (6.5, -130): Brian Hoyer beat out Johnny Manziel for the starting job, but who doesn't think there will be a quarterback controversy all season long? We saw in the preseason that the offense wasn't too sharp with either man in there, and now they loseJosh Gordon to suspension for the entire year. The defense is OK, but would need to be a lot better to get them to seven wins.
Vikings (6, +155): Bridgewater might be the long-term answer, but he starts the season holding a clipboard. They're clearly the fourth-best team in the division and don't have enough winnable games out there in my opinion. On the Week 2-16 lines at CG Technology (formerly known as Cantor Gaming), they're not favored in a game until Week 9, when they're -1.5 at home versus the Redskins. They are favored only twice all season.
Wunderdog: Broncos under 11.5 (-120)
Based on Pythagorean analysis, the Broncos were more realistically a 12-win team last season. Their schedule gets much more difficult this year. This season they start with games against the Colts, Chiefs, Seahawks, Cardinals, 49ers, Chargers and Patriots. And that's just the first half of their season! Teams that dominate the way Denver did last year (getting 13-plus wins with a huge scoring differential) generally regress the following season. Denver will win a lot of games this season, but odds are it will be 11 or fewer.
Selvaggio: Chiefs under 8.5 (-180)
The team that was the home run over bet the year before is now one of the best under plays in 2013. Kansas City rolled to a 9-0 start and 11-5 regular-season in 2013, based on an easy schedule, incredible special teams and a plus-18 turnover margin. Special teams and turnovers tend to regress to the mean, and now the Chiefs go from the easiest schedule in the league to what I project as the third-toughest based on preseason ratings.
Panthers under 8.5 (-165)
Much like KC, this was another team sharps were betting over last year. While the Panthers were a bit lucky with a plus-11 turnover margin, the schedule was very tough, which it will be again this year. Carolina's 5-2 record in one-score games is one reason I like the Panthers' under, but the AFC South figures to be much improved. Throw in a lot of roster turnover for Carolina and I'm expecting the Panthers to go way under 8.5.
Rynning: Lions under 8.5 (-130)
The Lions might have the flair but they don't have the substance needed to sustain winning success in the NFL. The pizzazz comes in the form of Calvin Johnson, Matthew Stafford,Reggie Bush and Ndamukong Suh. But it's the little things, like depth and overall 53-man talent, that is lacking with this organization. Winning in the NFL isn't easy, especially when you can't get out of your own way. How many times have we seen the Lions lose games as a result of themselves, not the opposition?
The hiring of head coach Jim Caldwell was an odd move and I expect that lack of discipline will continue to be an issue. It's important when handicapping season over/under win totals to take an inventory of the rest of the division. Green Bay, Chicago, and even Minnesota are all teams for which I project an uptick in play this season. Getting to nine wins is too tall of a task.
Over the summer, CG Technology posted point spreads for the first 16 weeks of the NFL season. (We projected our own lines for Week 17 by using previous matchups between two teams and adjusting for home-field advantage.)
With a full season's worth of betting lines, we then converted point spreads into winning percentages for each NFL game. For example, three-point favorites are expected to win 59.37 percent of the time, allowing us to award every three-point favorite with .5937 wins. Conversely, the opponent was awarded .4063 (1-.5937) wins as a three-point dog.
After calculating expected wins for each individual matchup, we compiled full-season win totals for all 32 NFL teams. The final step was to compare our own projected win totals to those offered at LVH, which indicated the following bets are offering value:
[h=4]2014 Season win totals offering value[/h]
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Not surprisingly, three of the four bets we highlighted are unders, which is to be expected since the general public favors overs, often inflating those lines.
The Saints and Patriots are notoriously public teams, and it's reasonable to assume oddsmakers expect to take over money every year on both New Orleans and New England. In response, oddsmakers can tweak the vig to force bettors to pay a premium to play the over. This fits right in with our analysis above, indicating there is value locking in each team's under at plus money.
Admittedly, we were a bit surprised when our analysis highlighted the Jaguars' under as a value play. While there is optimism that Blake Bortles will eventually take over under center and get this team headed in the right direction in an especially bad division, he's still a rookie quarterback with very limited weapons. And last year's team only posted four wins, making it difficult to see a scenario in which the Jaguars get to six wins this season.
Interestingly, the Dallas Cowboys, arguably the most popular and most publicly-bet team in the NFL, are offering value when playing over eight wins.
While the opposite is likely to be true most years, Tony Romo's back injury and the incessant bad press this offseason regarding its prospects has certainly lowered expectations from the Dallas faithful, while inspiring hordes of Cowboy haters to jump on the chance to bet under eight wins.
Those teams' current odds: Bears 7-2 (slightly better), Jets 8-1, Bengals 9-5 (slightly better), Texans 5-2, Chargers 5-1 (slightly worse).
As mentioned above, I think the Chargers have closed the gap on the Broncos and 5-1 looks like a good play, though I'm pretty sure I'll be taking them plus the points and on the money line in the head-to-head matchups with Denver in Weeks 8 and 15.
The Texans and Bears are my next-favorite teams from this list. The Texans should bounce back from last year's disaster, while the Colts are a vulnerable favorite. The Bears' bet might come down to which quarterback -- Jay Cutler vs. Aaron Rodgers -- and their supporting casts can avoid injuries. At 7-2, the Bears are worth a shot.
Selvaggio: Ravens to win AFC North (12-5)
I listed most of the reasons why I like Baltimore in my play above regarding their season win total, but with the rest of the division looking average, the Ravens look like a good value play here.
Eagles to win the NFC East (4-5)
I'm bullish on the Eagles and more reasons I like them are above in the Super Bowl value bets, but the rest of the NFC East is poor. The Giants, Redskins and Cowboys' starters have looked horrible against other first-team units this preseason. I bet them at plus-120 earlier but at minus-150 or less here, Philly looks like a solid bet.
Rynning: Giants to win the NFC East (7-2)
The Giants are another team that understands what it takes to win, from general manager Jerry Reese to head coach Tom Coughlin on down. I see multiple reasons to project a turnaround in 2014. Last year, they started 0-6 but continued to fight and finished a respectable 7-9. Consider this: Eli Manning tossed 27 interceptions, the offensive line was an absolute mess with injuries and they led the league with nine defensive and special-teams touchdowns allowed. Those all are correctable things, and they appear to be on much firmer footing franchise-wise than division mates Dallas and Washington.
The hurdle, at least on paper, will be Philadelphia. But let's not forget how quickly fortunes can change in the NFL. The Eagles were 4-12 in 2012 before Kelly and Nick Foles led them to a 10-6 mark. The G-Men are capable of a similar turnaround.
Chargers: I'm pot committed with them in a lot of categories, so I'll be on them early and often as long as the market doesn't overadjust.
Bengals: I liked them in season over/unders and I think there will be times to back them in the regular season, starting with Week 1 at Baltimore. They'll be favored in a lot of games, but they showed last year that they can play with the NFL's elite as they won as underdogs against both the Packers and Patriots.
Cowboys: A lot of people are down on Dallas, and it's hard to blame them with a poor defense that lost its two best players (DeMarcus Ware and Sean Lee). I'm not high on their playoff prospects, but I do think we'll find plenty of times to back them this year. They should be involved in plenty of shootouts and worth a bet (in addition, I mostly look to bet unders, but I wouldn't try to talk anyone out of playing overs in the Cowboys' games this year).
Falcons: They should bounce back from last season's disaster and be explosive on offense again. There should be plenty of spots to play them (though I'm passing Week 1 against the Saints).
Colts: I think they go under their total, but people love to bet Luck, and after back-to-back 11-win seasons the Colts are going to continue to get bet. I'll be looking to take the other side.
Broncos: This makes it tough in Week 1 as I'll probably pass in the Colts-Broncos game, but we're sure Denver will score a lot of points and win most of their games. However, with their inflated spreads, I expect them to finish under .500 ATS. The job now is to find the best times to fade them and when to pass.
Steelers: With people expecting them to rebound, there will be plenty of times to go against them. I'm hoping they romp in Week 1 against the Browns to get even more people on the bandwagon.
Seahawks: Yes, the Seahawks, but I'll add the caveat that I'm not talking about betting against them at home, as I learned that lesson years ago (though I did win with the Bucs at Seattle in Week 9 last year). But on the road, they'll still be favored a lot and I'll pick my spots.
Rynning: Colts
Despite chalking up an impressive 22-10 SU record over the last two seasons, Indianapolis spent a vast majority of that span playing league-average football. There's cause for concern following a fortunate plus-13 turnover margin in 2013, including three new starters along the offensive line-- something that hindered the development of the team's continuity during the preseason. Defensively, impact linebacker Robert Mathis will miss the first four games of the season. The enforcement of illegal contact will really dampen this secondary, as they love to play press coverage. Luck is an amazing young quarterback, but I question the rest of the pieces the organization is putting on the field.
This sort of feels like LeBron James' first go-round with Cleveland. After two years of overachievement and priced as the clear-cut betting favorite to win the AFC South, Indy is prime "fade" material.
By Insider Vegas Experts | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- We've had four weeks of preseason, and the opening weekend of college football was a nice appetizer, but the main dish is here as pro football finally kicks off its regular season Thursday night.
The ESPN Insider Pro Football Betting Guide for 2014-15 is below, but the fact is we've been previewing the upcoming season ever since the last one ended. The day after the Seahawks routed the Broncos 43-8 in Super Bowl XLVIII, we looked at the best bets to win Super Bowl XLIX. After the major free-agent signings, we updated the Super Bowl odds in April, then after the schedule was released later in April we looked at over/under season win totals, the Week 1 openers, the Week 2-16 lines in May and finally the division odds in July.
The first lesson to take from this betting guide is when it comes to season-long wagers, it's usually best to bet early. It doesn't take long for wiseguys to find the lines that are "off" and snap up the value. And while there's no guarantee that getting the best number early will result in a winning ticket, in the long run it pays to get the best odds whenever you can.
With the help of four handicappers (Geoff Kulesa, Erin Rynning, Sal Selvaggio and PJ Walsh) and myself, Dave Tuley, this extensive guide covers Super Bowl XLIX value bets, season win totals (both overs and unders), divisional bets, the top teams according to Vegas, the most important players against the spread (ATS) and teams to fade/bet during the season.
For more betting coverage, be sure to check out the new ESPN betting section.
[h=3]Super Bowl XLIX value bets[/h][h=4]Odds to win Super Bowl XLIX[/h]Courtesy of LVH SuperBook
| Team | Feb. 2 | April 7 | June 23 | Sept. 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 5-1 | 4-1 | 5-1 | 9-2 |
| Denver Broncos | 5-1 | 5-1 | 5-1 | 5-1 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 6-1 | 6-1 | 6-1 | 10-1 |
| New England Patriots | 7-1 | 8-1 | 7-1 | 7-1 |
| Green Bay Packers | 16-1 | 12-1 | 12-1 | 10-1 |
| New Orleans Saints | 18-1 | 20-1 | 12-1 | 7-1 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 30-1 | 35-1 | 40-1 | 60-1 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 20-1 | 20-1 | 20-1 | 22-1 |
| Carolina Panthers | 20-1 | 25-1 | 30-1 | 60-1 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 20-1 | 25-1 | 17-1 | 22-1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 30-1 | 30-1 | 40-1 | 50-1 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 30-1 | 25-1 | 25-1 | 25-1 |
| Chicago Bears | 30-1 | 40-1 | 30-1 | 25-1 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 30-1 | 50-1 | 50-1 | 40-1 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 30-1 | 30-1 | 40-1 | 75-1 |
| New York Giants | 40-1 | 40-1 | 40-1 | 40-1 |
| Washington Redskins | 40-1 | 40-1 | 50-1 | 60-1 |
| Detroit Lions | 40-1 | 40-1 | 30-1 | 40-1 |
| St. Louis Rams | 40-1 | 75-1 | 50-1 | 75-1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 30-1 | 25-1 | 25-1 | 22-1 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 30-1 | 30-1 | 25-1 | 25-1 |
| Houston Texans | 30-1 | 30-1 | 50-1 | 25-1 |
| San Diego Chargers | 30-1 | 30-1 | 40-1 | 30-1 |
| Miami Dolphins | 50-1 | 50-1 | 50-1 | 50-1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 60-1 | 75-1 | 75-1 | 100-1 |
| Tennessee Titans | 60-1 | 60-1 | 75-1 | 100-1 |
| New York Jets | 60-1 | 60-1 | 60-1 | 60-1 |
| Buffalo Bills | 60-1 | 60-1 | 60-1 | 60-1 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 100-1 | 100-1 | 150-1 | 50-1 |
| Cleveland Browns | 60-1 | 60-1 | 75-1 | 100-1 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 200-1 | 200-1 | 200-1 | 200-1 |
| Oakland Raiders | 200-1 | 200-1 | 200-1 | 100-1 |
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Dave Tuley: The New Orleans Saints were my pick to win the Super Bowl back in February when the LVH SuperBook opened them at 18-1, and I liked them even better at 20-1 in April. However, the Saints have become a very popular play (handicapper Marc Lawrence joined me in picking them to win the Super Bowl on our panel at the LVH SuperContest Weekend in August and ESPN The Magazine tabbed them as the NFC champion, losing to the Broncos in the Super Bowl in its NFL 2014 preview issue) and they've been bet all the way down to the 7-1 co-third choice at the LVH.
The initial thought is that the value has been sucked out of the Saints' odds, though the fact is that the only "real value" is the team that ends up cashing, so they'd still be my first choice over any other team. They should have less competition in the NFC South and be in great position to secure home-field advantage in the NFC with Rob Ryan expected to continue to improve the defense -- not that they need much D with Drew Brees & Co. capable of putting up 30-plus points on any given Sunday.
My top value pick in the AFC is the San Diego Chargers at 30-1. They put it all together late last season as they won their last four games (and five of their last six) to make the playoffs. They split with the Broncos during the regular season before losing to them in the divisional playoffs, but the gap is closing and the Chargers return almost the same exact team. As the season looms, I think that's the biggest overlay on the board.
Most of the other contenders have been bet down pretty hard, including NFC North division mates Green Bay (from 16-1 to 10-1) and Chicago (from 30-1 to 20-1, though they have since drifted back up to 25-1). The Arizona Cardinals, who will host Super Bowl XLIX, are an intriguing long shot, but their 40-1 price looks short considering they have Seattle and San Francisco in their division.
Geoff Kulesa (aka Wunderdog): To win the Super Bowl in today's NFL, you have to start with an outstanding defense. For this reason, I'm staying away from AFC teams. The Broncos are very likely coming out of the AFC, and while their defense should be improved, I'm not sure it will be elite. Last season's version was good but not great, which is one reason I faded them in the Super Bowl. I think whichever team can make it through the Murderer's Row in the NFC will be battle-tested and hoist the Lombardi trophy. My money is on:
Seattle Seahawks (9-2): It's very hard to repeat in the NFL, and if this team doesn't, it will be due to the "fat and happy" syndrome. They certainly have the talent on both sides of the ball and a great coach. This has been the absolute best team in the NFL for two years running and there's little reason to believe that has changed. Marshawn Lynch probably will take a step backward, but Russell Wilson should continue to improve, which will more than offset any loss of productivity from Lynch. Plus, their defense can stop great opposing passing games in their tracks -- that's what wins playoff games in today's NFL.
San Francisco 49ers (10-1): The 49ers defense had a down year in 2013, but still was one of the league's best. Losses to that defense corps (NaVorro Bowman, Aldon Smith) are cause for concern, but this team is a few plays away from possible back-to-back Super Bowl wins. If Colin Kaepernick continues to improve, and the defense plays great again, the Niners could be the team this year. They certainly will have a very strong motivation after having been so close in recent years. Jim Harbaugh is one of the top coaches in the league.
New Orleans Saints (7-1): The Saints defense went from awful in 2012 to great in 2013 due to Ryan's presence. The D should be even better this season, and it will need to be in order to win it all. On the other side of the ball, the weapons are endless: Brees, Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, Brandin Cooks, Kenny Stills, Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas. Pick your poison.
Sal Selvaggio: Philadelphia Eagles (25-1)
I think this number should be closer to 12-1, making the current price attractive. While Seattle, San Fran and the rest of the NFC West are beating themselves up, the Eagles will be taking on the likes of the Redskins, Cowboys and Giants. Overall, the schedule projects out to one of the easiest in the league, and I think there's a good shot they can snag a first-round bye. Seattle and New Orleans clearly are better teams, but because of the system they run the Eagles have a lot of upside. Kelly is innovative, makes the right decisions based on percentages (and not age-old thinking) and will have a full year of his entire offense at his fingertips. If the defense can just be average, the Eagles could be a very dangerous team come playoff time.
Erin Rynning: Baltimore Ravens (40-1)
The Broncos are currently the betting favorite to win the AFC championship and Super Bowl. It's a deserving distinction, but one that could change in a hurry if Peyton Manning were to go down with an injury. In the search for value, we like the Ravens, a team well-versed in what it takes to win a title. The Ravens were projected to regress last season and they did just that with an 8-8 record. However, it could have been worse considering how poorly Joe Flacco played (22 INTs) along with a nonexistent run game and porous offensive line.
The key to this year's turnaround should come in the form of offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak. In six of his last eight seasons in Houston, Kubiak's offenses ranked in the top 10. The Ravens, meanwhile, haven't featured that type of offense since the 1990s. In the end, once you get past the Broncos, the AFC appears wide open, which makes 40-1 worth a play.
[h=3]NFL Vegas rankings[/h][h=4]NFL Vegas Rankings[/h]Odds courtesy of LVH
| Rank | Team | Feb. 3 Power Rating | Aug. 31 Power Rating | Super Bowl XLIX Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1t | Seattle Seahawks | 26 | 26 | 9-2 |
| 1t | Denver Broncos | 26 | 26 | 5-1 |
| 3t | San Francisco 49ers | 26 | 25 | 10-1 |
| 3t | New Orleans Saints | 24 | 25 | 7-1 |
| 3t | Green Bay Packers | 23.5 | 25 | 10-1 |
| 6 | New England Patriots | 23 | 24.5 | 7-1 |
| 7t | San Diego Chargers | 22.5 | 22.5 | 30-1 |
| 7t | Cincinnati Bengals | 22 | 22.5 | 22-1 |
| 7t | Arizona Cardinals | 21.5 | 22.5 | 40-1 |
| 10 | Philadelphia Eagles | 21 | 21 | 25-1 |
| 11 | Chicago Bears | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20-1 |
| 12t | Indianapolis Colts | 20.5 | 19.5 | 22-1 |
| 12t | Kansas City Chiefs | 19.5 | 19.5 | 50-1 |
| 14t | Pittsburgh Steelers | 19.5 | 19 | 20-1 |
| 14t | Atlanta Falcons | 19.5 | 19 | 60-1 |
| 14t | Detroit Lions | 19.5 | 19 | 40-1 |
| 14t | Baltimore Ravens | 19 | 19 | 25-1 |
| 14t | Washington Redskins | 18.5 | 19 | 50-1 |
| 14t | Houston Texans | 18.5 | 19 | 25-1 |
| 14t | New York Giants | 18 | 19 | 40-1 |
| 21 | Carolina Panthers | 18 | 18.5 | 60-1 |
| 22t | Dallas Cowboys | 17.5 | 18 | 75-1 |
| 22t | New York Jets | 17 | 18 | 60-1 |
| 24 | Miami Dolphins | 17 | 17.5 | 50-1 |
| 25t | St. Louis Rams | 17 | 17 | 75-1 |
| 25t | Tennessee Titans | 16 | 17 | 100-1 |
| 27 | Buffalo Bills | 15.5 | 16 | 60-1 |
| 28 | Tampa Bay Bucs | 15 | 16 | 100-1 |
| 29 | Minnesota Vikings | 14.5 | 15 | 50-1 |
| 30t | Cleveland Browns | 14 | 14 | 100-1 |
| 30t | Jacksonville Jaguars | 13.5 | 14 | 200-1 |
| 30t | Oakland Raiders | 13 | 14 | 100-1 |
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Tuley: The Seahawks and Broncos start the 2014 NFL season right where they left off: as the top two teams in the league and in the NFL Vegas rankings.
The composite power ratings come from our panel of professional handicappers, including Selvaggio, Rynning and yours truly, using the ratings we use in our own handicapping and averaged out so they're not representative of any one handicapper but the group as a whole.
The ratings are intended to weigh the relative strength of the teams compared to the point spread on a given game. They're not meant as a predicted score (though admittedly my scale with 20 as a midpoint is intended to look like a score for purely aesthetic purposes).
How do we put this into action? Looking at the lines available for Week 1, there are 11 games that are pretty much spot-on or within a point with our rankings after adjusting around 2.5 points for home-field advantage, which is pretty much the industry standard these days (note: teams like the Packers, Patriots and 49ers are typically given a full field goal, while the Broncos and Saints are closer to 3.5 with the Seahawks given 4 points by most handicappers. Teams like the Jets, Raiders and Jaguars will be given just 1.5 points).
Here's a look at the Week 1 games where there appear to be value in the current lines. Again, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers. We don't expect everyone to take these numbers as gospel, so feel free to adjust where you feel the panel gets it wrong.
I'll post my ATS picks for the weekend's games in the "Tuley's Take" column on Friday.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Vegas consensus line: half at Saints -2.5, half at Saints -3
Vegas ranks: Saints -6 (25-19)
We have the Saints tied for the third-highest ranking (25) entering the season, while the Falcons are in the middle of the pack at 19. The six-point margin in favor of the Saints is minimized by the Falcons being at home, but if given 2.5 points for home-field advantage, the Saints are 3.5 points better and above the key number of 3. The play: Saints minus-2.5 if you can get it, but minus-3 still looks good.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Vegas consensus line: Steelers -6.5
Vegas ranks: Steelers -5 (19-14)
The Steelers are rated 5 points better than the Browns, but after adding in home field it climbs to 7.5. Any play on the Steelers laying less than a full touchdown looks like value, but act ASAP as it wouldn't be surprising if the line hits the key number of 7 later in the week.The play: Steelers minus-6.5.
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
Vegas consensus line: Broncos minus-7
Vegas ranks: Broncos -6.5 (26-19.5)
Our power ratings have the Broncos 6.5 points better than the Colts, but when we add 3 points for home field, it balloons to 9.5. And if you give the Broncos 3.5 points for home field, it reaches double digits. The play: Broncos -7.
New York Giants at Detroit Lions (Monday)
Vegas consensus line: Lions -4.5
Vegas ranks: Pick' em (19-19)
In a matchup of two teams with a lot to prove, we see this as pick 'em on a neutral field. The Lions' home field makes them the favorite, but certainly not by anything more than a field goal. The play: Giants +4.5.
[h=3]Best season win totals (overs)[/h]Tuley: Back in April, the overs I liked were: Bengals (9.5), Raiders (5), Chargers (8.5), Giants (7), Saints (9.5), Cardinals (7.5). Here are those prices now:Chargers (O/U 8 wins, -120): Obviously, I like this number better now as we get insurance in case the Chargers come up short and push on eight wins. They start with tough games at Arizona and then home versus Seattle, but then have five winnable games with the hardest being the Chiefs in Week 7 before their first meeting with Denver. December is tough with the Patriots, Broncos, 49ers and Chiefs, but I'm counting on them having eight wins in the bank by then and needing just one more to go over.
Saints (10, -160): Just like their Super Bowl odds, this number has been pounded, as it opened at 9.5 and money has flowed in on the over. But clearly I agree with the support if they're to battle for NFC home-field advantage like I expect. The Saints have won 16 straight home games with Sean Payton on the sideline (not counting his 2012 suspension), but even if they don't run the table at home -- they have to face the Packers, 49ers and Bengals in New Orleans -- they should still be able to exceed this number.
Bengals (9, -110): Someone has been fading the Bengals, probably as the Steelers and Ravens are expected to rebound from subpar years, but Cincy backers now get a push if they only win nine. We can debate Andy Dalton's playoff performances, but as far as the regular season is concerned, the Bengals should get to double-digit wins again.
Raiders (5, -130): As the juice has climbed higher, I'm not as enamored with this play and the Raiders' recent history doesn't give much confidence. I agree it's probably better long-term for the Raiders to go with Derek Carr as the starting QB, but for a one-season bet like this I would have preferred if they went with Matt Schaub. Another problem is they're in a tough division and also have to face the four NFC West teams, so I would definitely pass on this now.
Cardinals (7.5, -175): This has also been a popular play, as the Cardinals won 10 last year but missed the playoffs. Bruce Arians has them heading in the right direction, and if the offense can get more consistent so they don't have to rely so much on the defense (sixth in the league last year) to keep them in games, there's no reason they can't be at least 8-8.
Giants (8, +130): This has risen a full game, but the plus-money is attractive. Eli Manningwas struggling during the preseason with the new offense, but their early schedule is relatively soft -- so another 0-6 start like last year is highly unlikely -- and we've come to expect the G-Men to improve over the course of the season.
Wunderdog: Raiders over 5 (-130)
This one is hard, as the Raiders have been bad for so long. This team will struggle again this year, but at some point the price is right. The expectations are so low that we get an aggressively low number here at just five wins. Teams with season win totals set below six wins have exceeded the extra-low totals over 60 percent of the time. This is a very important season for Matt Schaub. He can resurrect his career and show that last year was a fluke. Or he can put one foot into retirement. He will certainly be motivated to perform well when and if he gets his chance. Derek Carr got the call over Schaub in Week 1, which says a lot as Dennis Allen must really have confidence in the rookie. If Carr is good enough to beat out Schaub then I expect good play from him. The Raiders find a way to over five wins this year.
Minnesota Vikings over 6 (-175)
The Vikings managed just a 5-11-1 record in 2013, but they were better than that based on their points scored and points allowed. Why will they likely exceed that number this season? Last season the team couldn't decide on a quarterback, which cost Leslie Frazier his job. This season the situation can only improve, with Matt Cassel starting and Teddy Bridgewater waiting in the wings. Oh, and they still have Adrian Peterson to carry the football. New head coach Mike Zimmer will help the defense and new offensive coordinator Norv Turner will greatly improve the offense. Bad NFL teams with new head coaches typically add another 2-3 wins. I expect the Vikings to win seven to nine games in 2014.
Selvaggio: Ravens over 8.5 (-120)
The two other over plays I liked have been bet up pretty good, but even at minus-120, Baltimore's over is worth a play. The math model I use to project season wins has the mean number at 9.5, so 8.5 is an automatic bet for me. The Ravens had the third-worst offensive rating by the metrics I use, but I am forecasting closer to league average this year. I don't expect Flacco to be dreadful and throw 22 interceptions this year. Baltimore has a relatively easy schedule, and the defense is still very good.
[h=3]Best season win totals (unders)[/h]Tuley: Back in April, the unders I liked were the Bills (6.5), Steelers (8.5), Browns (6.5), Colts (9), Vikings (7). Here are those prices now:Colts (O/U 9.5 wins, -130): The Colts' back-to-back 11-win seasons are a tribute toAndrew Luck making up for a lot of his team's problems, but he can't do it again, can he? I'm betting against it, and now that the number has risen to 9.5 we get a win instead of a push if they go 9-7.
Bills (6.5, +125): Some people are on the Bills to go over (like Teddy Sevransky in the current ESPN The Magazine), but I'm not buying it. The defense was the team's strength, but they lost safety Jairus Byrd to New Orleans and Kiko Alonso to injury for the season. Losing wide receiver Steve Johnson also hurts, especially if rookie Sammy Watkins is unable to stop getting injured. I just don't see where they'll rack up the wins.
Steelers (8.5, +120): A lot of people think the Steelers will rebound, but I think another 8-8 season is more likely (and we get a plus price). The defense isn't as strong as we usually see from the Steelers and the offense didn't look sharp in the preseason.
Browns (6.5, -130): Brian Hoyer beat out Johnny Manziel for the starting job, but who doesn't think there will be a quarterback controversy all season long? We saw in the preseason that the offense wasn't too sharp with either man in there, and now they loseJosh Gordon to suspension for the entire year. The defense is OK, but would need to be a lot better to get them to seven wins.
Vikings (6, +155): Bridgewater might be the long-term answer, but he starts the season holding a clipboard. They're clearly the fourth-best team in the division and don't have enough winnable games out there in my opinion. On the Week 2-16 lines at CG Technology (formerly known as Cantor Gaming), they're not favored in a game until Week 9, when they're -1.5 at home versus the Redskins. They are favored only twice all season.
Wunderdog: Broncos under 11.5 (-120)
Based on Pythagorean analysis, the Broncos were more realistically a 12-win team last season. Their schedule gets much more difficult this year. This season they start with games against the Colts, Chiefs, Seahawks, Cardinals, 49ers, Chargers and Patriots. And that's just the first half of their season! Teams that dominate the way Denver did last year (getting 13-plus wins with a huge scoring differential) generally regress the following season. Denver will win a lot of games this season, but odds are it will be 11 or fewer.
Selvaggio: Chiefs under 8.5 (-180)
The team that was the home run over bet the year before is now one of the best under plays in 2013. Kansas City rolled to a 9-0 start and 11-5 regular-season in 2013, based on an easy schedule, incredible special teams and a plus-18 turnover margin. Special teams and turnovers tend to regress to the mean, and now the Chiefs go from the easiest schedule in the league to what I project as the third-toughest based on preseason ratings.
Panthers under 8.5 (-165)
Much like KC, this was another team sharps were betting over last year. While the Panthers were a bit lucky with a plus-11 turnover margin, the schedule was very tough, which it will be again this year. Carolina's 5-2 record in one-score games is one reason I like the Panthers' under, but the AFC South figures to be much improved. Throw in a lot of roster turnover for Carolina and I'm expecting the Panthers to go way under 8.5.
Rynning: Lions under 8.5 (-130)
The Lions might have the flair but they don't have the substance needed to sustain winning success in the NFL. The pizzazz comes in the form of Calvin Johnson, Matthew Stafford,Reggie Bush and Ndamukong Suh. But it's the little things, like depth and overall 53-man talent, that is lacking with this organization. Winning in the NFL isn't easy, especially when you can't get out of your own way. How many times have we seen the Lions lose games as a result of themselves, not the opposition?
The hiring of head coach Jim Caldwell was an odd move and I expect that lack of discipline will continue to be an issue. It's important when handicapping season over/under win totals to take an inventory of the rest of the division. Green Bay, Chicago, and even Minnesota are all teams for which I project an uptick in play this season. Getting to nine wins is too tall of a task.
[h=3]Sports insights on season win totals[/h]In order to analyze NFL win totals, I enlisted the help of our Bet Labs manager, Travis Reed, who used point spreads from CG Technology (formerly Cantor Gaming) to find which totals are offering the most value.Over the summer, CG Technology posted point spreads for the first 16 weeks of the NFL season. (We projected our own lines for Week 17 by using previous matchups between two teams and adjusting for home-field advantage.)
With a full season's worth of betting lines, we then converted point spreads into winning percentages for each NFL game. For example, three-point favorites are expected to win 59.37 percent of the time, allowing us to award every three-point favorite with .5937 wins. Conversely, the opponent was awarded .4063 (1-.5937) wins as a three-point dog.
After calculating expected wins for each individual matchup, we compiled full-season win totals for all 32 NFL teams. The final step was to compare our own projected win totals to those offered at LVH, which indicated the following bets are offering value:
[h=4]2014 Season win totals offering value[/h]
| Team | LVH Win Total | Projected Wins | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5.0 | 4.42 | Under (+125) |
| New Orleans Saints | 10.0 | 9.10 | Under (+135) |
| New England Patriots | 10.5 | 9.86 | Under (+160) |
| Dallas Cowboys | 8.0 | 8.24 | Over (+230) |
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Not surprisingly, three of the four bets we highlighted are unders, which is to be expected since the general public favors overs, often inflating those lines.
The Saints and Patriots are notoriously public teams, and it's reasonable to assume oddsmakers expect to take over money every year on both New Orleans and New England. In response, oddsmakers can tweak the vig to force bettors to pay a premium to play the over. This fits right in with our analysis above, indicating there is value locking in each team's under at plus money.
Admittedly, we were a bit surprised when our analysis highlighted the Jaguars' under as a value play. While there is optimism that Blake Bortles will eventually take over under center and get this team headed in the right direction in an especially bad division, he's still a rookie quarterback with very limited weapons. And last year's team only posted four wins, making it difficult to see a scenario in which the Jaguars get to six wins this season.
Interestingly, the Dallas Cowboys, arguably the most popular and most publicly-bet team in the NFL, are offering value when playing over eight wins.
While the opposite is likely to be true most years, Tony Romo's back injury and the incessant bad press this offseason regarding its prospects has certainly lowered expectations from the Dallas faithful, while inspiring hordes of Cowboy haters to jump on the chance to bet under eight wins.
[h=3]Divisional value bets[/h]Tuley: Back in July, here were my top value picks: Chicago Bears 3-1 in NFC North, New York Jets 8-1 in AFC East, Cincinnati Bengals 8-5 in AFC North, Houston Texans 5-2 in AFC South and San Diego Chargers 11-2 in AFC West.Those teams' current odds: Bears 7-2 (slightly better), Jets 8-1, Bengals 9-5 (slightly better), Texans 5-2, Chargers 5-1 (slightly worse).
As mentioned above, I think the Chargers have closed the gap on the Broncos and 5-1 looks like a good play, though I'm pretty sure I'll be taking them plus the points and on the money line in the head-to-head matchups with Denver in Weeks 8 and 15.
The Texans and Bears are my next-favorite teams from this list. The Texans should bounce back from last year's disaster, while the Colts are a vulnerable favorite. The Bears' bet might come down to which quarterback -- Jay Cutler vs. Aaron Rodgers -- and their supporting casts can avoid injuries. At 7-2, the Bears are worth a shot.
Selvaggio: Ravens to win AFC North (12-5)
I listed most of the reasons why I like Baltimore in my play above regarding their season win total, but with the rest of the division looking average, the Ravens look like a good value play here.
Eagles to win the NFC East (4-5)
I'm bullish on the Eagles and more reasons I like them are above in the Super Bowl value bets, but the rest of the NFC East is poor. The Giants, Redskins and Cowboys' starters have looked horrible against other first-team units this preseason. I bet them at plus-120 earlier but at minus-150 or less here, Philly looks like a solid bet.
Rynning: Giants to win the NFC East (7-2)
The Giants are another team that understands what it takes to win, from general manager Jerry Reese to head coach Tom Coughlin on down. I see multiple reasons to project a turnaround in 2014. Last year, they started 0-6 but continued to fight and finished a respectable 7-9. Consider this: Eli Manning tossed 27 interceptions, the offensive line was an absolute mess with injuries and they led the league with nine defensive and special-teams touchdowns allowed. Those all are correctable things, and they appear to be on much firmer footing franchise-wise than division mates Dallas and Washington.
The hurdle, at least on paper, will be Philadelphia. But let's not forget how quickly fortunes can change in the NFL. The Eagles were 4-12 in 2012 before Kelly and Nick Foles led them to a 10-6 mark. The G-Men are capable of a similar turnaround.
[h=3]Teams wiseguys love[/h]Tuley: Just because I think a team can win its division or the Super Bowl doesn't mean I'm going to be betting on them every week (especially since I'm a dog-or-pass bettor and many of those teams will be favored in a majority of their games). However, for the four teams below, I'll be looking to them on a game-to-game basis, though I should emphasize that any team is playable at the right price.Chargers: I'm pot committed with them in a lot of categories, so I'll be on them early and often as long as the market doesn't overadjust.
Bengals: I liked them in season over/unders and I think there will be times to back them in the regular season, starting with Week 1 at Baltimore. They'll be favored in a lot of games, but they showed last year that they can play with the NFL's elite as they won as underdogs against both the Packers and Patriots.
Cowboys: A lot of people are down on Dallas, and it's hard to blame them with a poor defense that lost its two best players (DeMarcus Ware and Sean Lee). I'm not high on their playoff prospects, but I do think we'll find plenty of times to back them this year. They should be involved in plenty of shootouts and worth a bet (in addition, I mostly look to bet unders, but I wouldn't try to talk anyone out of playing overs in the Cowboys' games this year).
Falcons: They should bounce back from last season's disaster and be explosive on offense again. There should be plenty of spots to play them (though I'm passing Week 1 against the Saints).
[h=3]Teams wiseguys hate[/h]Tuley: Here are four teams I'll be looking to fade when the price is right:Colts: I think they go under their total, but people love to bet Luck, and after back-to-back 11-win seasons the Colts are going to continue to get bet. I'll be looking to take the other side.
Broncos: This makes it tough in Week 1 as I'll probably pass in the Colts-Broncos game, but we're sure Denver will score a lot of points and win most of their games. However, with their inflated spreads, I expect them to finish under .500 ATS. The job now is to find the best times to fade them and when to pass.
Steelers: With people expecting them to rebound, there will be plenty of times to go against them. I'm hoping they romp in Week 1 against the Browns to get even more people on the bandwagon.
Seahawks: Yes, the Seahawks, but I'll add the caveat that I'm not talking about betting against them at home, as I learned that lesson years ago (though I did win with the Bucs at Seattle in Week 9 last year). But on the road, they'll still be favored a lot and I'll pick my spots.
Rynning: Colts
Despite chalking up an impressive 22-10 SU record over the last two seasons, Indianapolis spent a vast majority of that span playing league-average football. There's cause for concern following a fortunate plus-13 turnover margin in 2013, including three new starters along the offensive line-- something that hindered the development of the team's continuity during the preseason. Defensively, impact linebacker Robert Mathis will miss the first four games of the season. The enforcement of illegal contact will really dampen this secondary, as they love to play press coverage. Luck is an amazing young quarterback, but I question the rest of the pieces the organization is putting on the field.
This sort of feels like LeBron James' first go-round with Cleveland. After two years of overachievement and priced as the clear-cut betting favorite to win the AFC South, Indy is prime "fade" material.
