[h=1]How Vegas experts view GB-SEA[/h][h=3]Line analysis and ATS picks from handicappers on the Thursday night game[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Evan Abrams[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
It will be just over seven months since the [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Seattle Seahawks[/FONT] defeated the [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Denver Broncos[/FONT]in Super Bowl XLVIII when Green Bay and Seattle kick off the 2014 NFL season at CenturyLink Field on Thursday. Starting in 2004, teams who won the Super Bowl the previous year opened the following season with the "kickoff game." Super Bowl champions are 8-2 straight up and 6-3-1 against the spread in the kickoff game, which bodes well for Seattle. If you go back to 1980, Super Bowl winners are 22-12 straight up but just 14-17-3 against the spread in their first game to open the following season.
The Seahawks have played the Packers 11 times since 1990, with Green Bay holding the advantage 7-4 straight up (SU) and 6-4-1 against the spread (ATS), but the most memorable matchup, for many, occurred two years ago this month. What many people now refer to as the "Fail Mary" occurred in the latest meeting between Seattle and Green Bay. The Packers led 12-7 with under a minute to go when Russell Wilson threw up a Hail Mary on fourth-and-10, and it was "caught" by Golden Tate, which essentially switched it from Green Bay covering and winning the game to Seattle doing so -- in an instant.
Since he became the Packers' starter in 2008, Aaron Rodgers is 4-2 SU and ATS in opening games, but the games have been very close. The average margin of victory in the six contests has been 6.7 points per game. The Seahawks are listed as the favorite to win the Super Bowl again this year, at 9-2, while the Packers are tied for second in the NFC (with the San Francisco 49ers), at 10-1.
According to ESPN Insider's PickCenter, the public is currently backing the Packers at a clip of just 52 percent, with the line of Green Bay plus-6.
Let's get some analysis of the line from Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hotel and a pick on the game from our panel of four Vegas handicappers:
Total: Opened at 45; now 47.5
</center>Jay Kornegay says:<offer> "Back on April 23, we opened the Seahawks minus-5 over the visiting Packers in this great kickoff matchup. Approximately six days later, the Seahawks moved up to minus-5.5, where the line held all the way until August 27. At that point, money came in on Green Bay, and the number dropped to minus-5. Seattle money showed up at the end of August and pushed it back to minus-5.5. On Sept. 2, the market continued to support the Seahawks, and the number jumped to minus-6. Again, that didn't last long, as Packers money showed up to bring us back down to our current number at minus-5.5."</offer>
"I would have to say this is a pretty good game to 'book'. We have money on both sides, and we're not flirting with "football numbers. The total opened up at 45 and has slowly crept up to 47.5."
ATS pick: Packers
Pick: Seahawks money line (minus-235)
Pick: Over on the total (46.5 or less)
ATS pick: Packers
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Evan Abrams[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
It will be just over seven months since the [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Seattle Seahawks[/FONT] defeated the [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Denver Broncos[/FONT]in Super Bowl XLVIII when Green Bay and Seattle kick off the 2014 NFL season at CenturyLink Field on Thursday. Starting in 2004, teams who won the Super Bowl the previous year opened the following season with the "kickoff game." Super Bowl champions are 8-2 straight up and 6-3-1 against the spread in the kickoff game, which bodes well for Seattle. If you go back to 1980, Super Bowl winners are 22-12 straight up but just 14-17-3 against the spread in their first game to open the following season.
The Seahawks have played the Packers 11 times since 1990, with Green Bay holding the advantage 7-4 straight up (SU) and 6-4-1 against the spread (ATS), but the most memorable matchup, for many, occurred two years ago this month. What many people now refer to as the "Fail Mary" occurred in the latest meeting between Seattle and Green Bay. The Packers led 12-7 with under a minute to go when Russell Wilson threw up a Hail Mary on fourth-and-10, and it was "caught" by Golden Tate, which essentially switched it from Green Bay covering and winning the game to Seattle doing so -- in an instant.
Since he became the Packers' starter in 2008, Aaron Rodgers is 4-2 SU and ATS in opening games, but the games have been very close. The average margin of victory in the six contests has been 6.7 points per game. The Seahawks are listed as the favorite to win the Super Bowl again this year, at 9-2, while the Packers are tied for second in the NFC (with the San Francisco 49ers), at 10-1.
According to ESPN Insider's PickCenter, the public is currently backing the Packers at a clip of just 52 percent, with the line of Green Bay plus-6.
Let's get some analysis of the line from Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hotel and a pick on the game from our panel of four Vegas handicappers:
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">[h=3]Matchup: Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks[/h]Spread: Opened Seahawks -5; now Seahawks -6Total: Opened at 45; now 47.5
</center>Jay Kornegay says:<offer> "Back on April 23, we opened the Seahawks minus-5 over the visiting Packers in this great kickoff matchup. Approximately six days later, the Seahawks moved up to minus-5.5, where the line held all the way until August 27. At that point, money came in on Green Bay, and the number dropped to minus-5. Seattle money showed up at the end of August and pushed it back to minus-5.5. On Sept. 2, the market continued to support the Seahawks, and the number jumped to minus-6. Again, that didn't last long, as Packers money showed up to bring us back down to our current number at minus-5.5."</offer>
"I would have to say this is a pretty good game to 'book'. We have money on both sides, and we're not flirting with "football numbers. The total opened up at 45 and has slowly crept up to 47.5."
[h=3]ATS picks[/h]Dave Tuley says: "The talk of the offseason has been about the NFL's plan to increase enforcement of defensive holding and pass interference and how that would help offenses and neutralize strong defenses. We saw that in the preseason. Now, even though I don't often go against the Seahawks and their home-field advantage, the Packers -- who were clearly a much better team last year when Rodgers was in the lineup -- would have to be considered a live underdog even if the refs 'let them play.' Furthermore, if the league and/or refs choose to use this nationally televised opener to further prove their point, I believe this will greatly favor the Packers' passing attack and make them even more likely to cover the spread or even win outright. I already was planning to take the Pack when they were getting 5.5 points, and I like them even more with 6."ATS pick: Packers
Wunderdog says: "At home, Seattle's '12th Man' has contributed to a 17-1 record in their building over the past two seasons, including the playoffs. Rodgers will have his work cut out for him going against a secondary that intercepted 28 passes the past season. Wilson, who has Percy Harvin back, has posted a passer rating of 100 or higher in each of his first two seasons. If you give the edge to Green Bay's offense, this game should go to the Seahawks. Seattle is nearly perfect at home, and its defense is light-years ahead of Green Bay's. The Seahawks' defense allowed 14.3 points per game the past season, while the Packers allowed 26.5 per game. This could very well be a close game, so the best bet on the board is Seattle on the money line."Pick: Seahawks money line (minus-235)
Maddux Sports says: "I've been more bullish on Green Bay than Seattle this year, due to the rule changes implemented in the offseason and expected improvement from the Packers. But after they lost two starting linemen in the preseason, my position has cooled a bit. I made this game Seattle minus-5, but honestly it wouldn't shock me to see the Seahawks blow them out, as they do to most teams at home. It also wouldn't shock me to see the Packers win straight up, as I do think the rule changes are going to hurt Seattle. It really depends on how this game is called. If the referees call it like they did in the preseason, Green Bay is a very live dog. With this being the first game of the season, I am not going to try to guess what they will do. I do see a little value in the total and did bet over 45. At 46.5 or less, that would be how I would attack this game."Pick: Over on the total (46.5 or less)
Erin Rynning says: "The Packers enter the 2014 campaign hungry and with a chip on their shoulder. Green Bay fought through an injury-plagued 8-7-1 season last year; however, the talent on this team far exceeds that mark. The Packers now feature the offensive balance required to score on this Seattle defense. The Seahawks are deserving NFC favorites after their dominating Super Bowl win this past season. However, it's never easy going from the hunter to the hunted. The Packers stay within the point spread in Thursday's NFL opener."ATS pick: Packers
