Something I never understood about point spreads. Sometimes the line makers know over 80% of the action is going to be on one side.

CHOPTALK · Sep 6, 2014

Saints/Falcons for instance.

Saints -3.

William Hill has 91% action on the Saints.

The line makers knew when they came out with this spread the action would be heavy on the Saints.

Why would they want to expose themselves like this?

They are going to get slaughtered on this game.

If they wanted 50/50 action on this game they could have put the Saints at -7.5 and I bet you it would be closer to 50/50.

Shub · Sep 6, 2014

At 7.5 no way would it be 50/50

theMadMan · Sep 6, 2014

Won't Matter When Atlanta Wins ......
......................................................

But I Get your point . Vegas is the best ,,but sometimes they DO MAKE MISTAKES !!!

and if you can find them and exploit -em your all the better and richer !!!!

Good Luck in all you plays

PigskinArmor · Sep 6, 2014

Week 1 plays a part, however, this line is suspicious.

Well-Seasoned · Sep 6, 2014

http://youtu.be/VKdhkkWUMQ4

this thread needs the "Julio" song........

slapshot · Sep 6, 2014

NEW ORLEANS AT ATLANTA: We’ve had a very big move here since the game first went up at Atlanta -1.5. Not only have we flipped favorites, but New Orleans has been bet all the way up to the magic number of three! The sharps have made it very clear that they are skeptical of Atlanta bouncing back into playoff contention. Remember that home field advantage is worth three points…so the market is telling you that the Saints are a full SIX points better than the Falcons on a neutral field. Some sharp dog action has come in on the three…and the Wise Guys stopped betting the Saints at that threshold. Not much interest on the Over/Under, which has centered around 51.5.

Bourn · Sep 6, 2014

I have the Saints capped at -37

Bourn · Sep 6, 2014

Chop - you have single handedly made the Saints my most wanted team to fail. Congratulations.

RunLeeRun · Sep 6, 2014

The books may get slaughtered, but it's just one game. Over the 200+ games getting heavy favorite action is a winning formula.

pocketrockets · Sep 6, 2014

Shub said:
At 7.5 no way would it be 50/50

This! -3 is very accurate

LoCalDallasGuy · Sep 6, 2014

I think it should be -3.5

doubledeuce22 · Sep 6, 2014

well, the oddsmakers aren't saints homers.

shdw01 · Sep 6, 2014

I think saints -4 gets it close to 50/50

The fact the lines makers knew it would be 90% on saints this tells me they think the saints dont cover

PatsFan1283 · Sep 6, 2014

oddsmakers haven't cared about 50/50 action for like 15 years for the most part

point of the line is to strive for efficiency, not reducing exposure to 1 side

kindof a Cruise question chop, no offense

FearTheRaven · Sep 6, 2014

Falcons win this one

HarryCaray · Sep 6, 2014

FearTheRaven said:
Falcons win this one

Agreed.

Let's not forget how bad NO looked on the road last year at times.

RoofTop · Sep 6, 2014

Falcons ML gotta be the play, no?

HamGlaze · Sep 7, 2014

Trap.

Sometimes what's obvious from the beginning is usually the case in the end. Saints by 13 or more.

HamGlaze · Sep 7, 2014

Only case I can make for Atlanta is that they are healthy for the first time in like two years. Saints have clearly the best athletes on the field at any given time but it comes down to still making plays. Falcons will have to win/cover by defense. Can they stop that Saints offense, yes they can but for how long is the question. Brees should see things open up for him in the fourth quarter.

quantumleap · Sep 7, 2014

CHOPTALK said:
Saints/Falcons for instance.

Saints -3.

William Hill has 91% action on the Saints.

The line makers knew when they came out with this spread the action would be heavy on the Saints.

Why would they want to expose themselves like this?

They are going to get slaughtered on this game.

If they wanted 50/50 action on this game they could have put the Saints at -7.5 and I bet you it would be closer to 50/50.

CHOP, how do you know WH has 91% on one side? Is that number of bets or money?

I don't know of any good source that gives out the percentage of money on one side.