[h=1]Ranking Week 1 surprise teams[/h][h=3]Who has most staying power among Bills, Dolphins, Falcons, Titans, Vikings?[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Mike Sando[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
DETROIT -- What happened Monday night at Ford Field was no fluke. While the Detroit Lionswere toying with the New York Giants, it occurred to me that none of the Giants' offensive players would start for Detroit. How's that for a talent gap? (OK, so right tackle might be a wash and Victor Cruz would flourish in the Lions' three-receiver sets, but you get the point. This was a mismatch.)
For a change, the Lions played to expectations by beating a weaker team soundly and finishing strong. Last season, Detroit won by more than 14 points just once, in the game Green Bay had to play without Aaron Rodgers. The legitimate teams -- Denver, Seattle, New Orleans, Carolina and San Francisco -- all won between five and nine games by 14-plus points.
I'll use the Lions' performance as a springboard to analyze teams riding high entering Week 2 after missing the playoffs last season -- Minnesota, Tennessee, Miami, Detroit, Buffalo and Atlanta. All won their openers after exceeding point-spread expectations by 16.7 points on average (for example, the Lions were six-point favorites and won by 21, good for a plus-15 differential over expectation).
All but the Lions were underdogs, so I'll address Detroit separately after ranking the other five teams' prospects for successful seasons. I've enlisted a veteran quarterback to help with analysis. We disagreed over which team should get top billing, but our lists lined up otherwise.
<offer></offer>
[h=3]1. Miami Dolphins[/h]Week 1: 33-20 victory over New England as a 5-point home underdog
The veteran QB consulted for this piece argued for Atlanta in this top spot. More on that in the Falcons' section below. Of five teams listed, the Dolphins were the only one I projected as a playoff team before the season. If they could go 8-8 in 2013 as their offensive line fell apart and the organization buckled during the Richie Incognito scandal, they should fare at least as well after upgrading their roster.
New tackles Branden Albert and Ja'Wuan James both graded out positively against New England in Pro Football Focus charting, with Albert standing out for his work in the running game. That would have been unthinkable for most of last season.
Beating the Patriots by double digits without getting even an above-average game from quarterback Ryan Tannehill also counts as a positive. Tannehill, sacked on 9.4 percent of dropbacks over his first 15 starts last season, has taken just one sack in 82 dropbacks over his past two starts.
[h=3]2. Atlanta Falcons[/h]Week 1: 37-34 overtime victory over New Orleans as a 3-point home underdog
The Falcons are the only team on the list with a proven, highly productive quarterback. I'm still not sure about the pass rush or depth on the offensive line, but the veteran quarterback I consulted thought Ryan would make the Falcons a contender as long as he had sufficient weapons. Other players I've consulted regarding Ryan have expressed reservations.
"He is one of the best in the league and when you've got a guy [at QB], that is like playing with 12 people," the QB said. "He is that good. Playing this position, you are such a product of the people around you. But if you are good with people around you, that is when you get to 'Star Wars'-type stuff. You throw for 450 yards and can win every game, even when you should not."
Last season, the Falcons became the first team in the eight-year history of the Total QBR metric to finish 4-12 or worse with a team QBR score north of 60. The three other teams with the same QBR score (61.3) won 12, 12 and 10 games.
[h=3]3. Tennessee Titans[/h]Week 1: 26-10 victory over Kansas City as a 3.5-point road underdog
When I visited Titans camp in the spring, coach Ken Whisenhunt dismissed concerns about whether the defensive personnel would translate to the 3-4 base defense coordinator Ray Horton was installing. People around the league had their doubts, but Whisenhunt and Horton were confident the scheme would produce favorable matchups for key players.
One game isn't going to settle the debate, but Week 1 provided evidence the Titans were right. In PFF grading through Sunday, Jurrell Casey ranked second to J.J. Watt among 3-4 defensive ends and Derrick Morgan ranked first among 3-4 outside linebackers. The Titans also got a solid game from quarterback Jake Locker, although he took a few too many hits and has durability concerns longer term.
[h=3]4a. Minnesota Vikings[/h]Week 1: 34-6 victory over St. Louis as a 3.5-point road underdog
The Vikings were one of my potential surprise teams coming into the season. While they exceeded expectations in the opener, they beat a team that playedShaun Hill and Austin Davis at quarterback. The teams ranked above Minnesota overcame much more established quarterbacks (Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Alex Smith). The Vikings have Brady, Brees, Ryan, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford next on their schedule, so we'll learn plenty about their mettle before long.
[h=3]4b. Buffalo Bills[/h]Week 1: 23-20 overtime victory over Chicago as a 7-point road underdog
How quickly EJ Manuel develops will be key, but with Buffalo rushing 33 times for 193 yards against the Bears, the team asked its young QB to drop back just 26 times, about a dozen fewer than the league average for starters. Manuel, credited for firing up the team with a motivational speech during meetings Saturday night, was generally efficient.
"I was impressed," the veteran QB said of Manuel. "I like that he was aggressive, he was good with the football and he gave his team a chance. They have 4-5 really good players around him -- Sammy Watkins, and then Mike Williams is a good player when he is healthy and his mind is right. Robert Woods is good. They have two good backs. We just need to see [Manuel] prove it over 2-3-4 weeks."
"Calvin Johnson is so unbelievable, I understand why you do things you should not do," Lions offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi said when I visited the team at training camp. "The guy, it is jaw-dropping. This guy is different. It's unreal, the plays he makes every day, so easily. But it just comes down to protecting the football. There is so much that goes into that, knowing the situation and when is a good time to cut it loose, and when is not."
Stafford had no turnovers against the Giants, his fourth turnover-free game since the start of last season. Only Eli Manning and Carson Palmer have more turnovers than Stafford since 2012.
• First-round update: Fourteen of the 32 rookie first-round draft choices started in Week 1, down from an average of 19.5 over the past four seasons. The average is 15.5 over the past 10 years.
Week 1 starters this year included Deone Bucannon (Arizona), Jake Matthews (Atlanta), C.J. Mosley (Baltimore), Sammy Watkins (Buffalo), Kelvin Benjamin (Carolina), Zack Martin(Dallas), Jadeveon Clowney (Houston), Ja'Wuan James (Miami), Anthony Barr (Minnesota),Calvin Pryor (Jets), Khalil Mack (Oakland), Ryan Shazier (Pittsburgh), Jimmie Ward (San Francisco) and Mike Evans (Tampa Bay).
The following non-starters played at least 25 snaps on offense or defense: Bradley Roby(Denver), Justin Gilbert (Cleveland), Brandin Cooks (New Orleans), Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (Green Bay), Kyle Fuller (Chicago), Aaron Donald (St. Louis) and Dominique Easley (New England).
• Fitzgerald's place: The Arizona Cardinals placed Kurt Warner in their Ring of Honor on Monday night and I like his chances for the Pro Football Hall of Fame next year. The same goes for Cardinals receiver Larry Fitzgerald, whose best days could be in the past. Fitzgerald, 31, caught just one pass Monday night. The Cardinals did not even target him until the fourth quarter, a career first for Fitz. Meanwhile, Michael Floyd was catching five passes for 119 yards. Rookie John Brown had the game-winning touchdown grab.
• Cornerback debate, Part I: I've asked quite a few people around the league to rate Richard Sherman, Patrick Peterson and Joe Haden, the three young corners who commanded contract extensions this past offseason. There was no consensus. I'll share various perspectives periodically, beginning with thoughts from an AFC cornerback.
"I would probably put Peterson at No. 1 just because, athletically, he is probably one of the most gifted athletes, period, in the game today," the corner said. "Sherman would be next. The production he has had has not really been matched the last year or two. I like Haden a lot. He matches up with anybody. He is one of those athletically gifted guys, too -- not as much as Peterson, but he is up there."
I asked this corner whether he would downgrade Sherman for playing in a scheme that keeps him on one side of the field, rather than shadowing the other team's top receiver.
"I don't know if I like to downgrade him for it," the corner said. "I wouldn't give him a plus for that, obviously, but he still makes plays. You can't blame him for being in that defense. Regardless of whether he is in a great defense or not, what difference does it make? He still makes plays."
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Mike Sando[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
DETROIT -- What happened Monday night at Ford Field was no fluke. While the Detroit Lionswere toying with the New York Giants, it occurred to me that none of the Giants' offensive players would start for Detroit. How's that for a talent gap? (OK, so right tackle might be a wash and Victor Cruz would flourish in the Lions' three-receiver sets, but you get the point. This was a mismatch.)
For a change, the Lions played to expectations by beating a weaker team soundly and finishing strong. Last season, Detroit won by more than 14 points just once, in the game Green Bay had to play without Aaron Rodgers. The legitimate teams -- Denver, Seattle, New Orleans, Carolina and San Francisco -- all won between five and nine games by 14-plus points.
I'll use the Lions' performance as a springboard to analyze teams riding high entering Week 2 after missing the playoffs last season -- Minnesota, Tennessee, Miami, Detroit, Buffalo and Atlanta. All won their openers after exceeding point-spread expectations by 16.7 points on average (for example, the Lions were six-point favorites and won by 21, good for a plus-15 differential over expectation).
All but the Lions were underdogs, so I'll address Detroit separately after ranking the other five teams' prospects for successful seasons. I've enlisted a veteran quarterback to help with analysis. We disagreed over which team should get top billing, but our lists lined up otherwise.
<offer></offer>
[h=3]1. Miami Dolphins[/h]Week 1: 33-20 victory over New England as a 5-point home underdog
The veteran QB consulted for this piece argued for Atlanta in this top spot. More on that in the Falcons' section below. Of five teams listed, the Dolphins were the only one I projected as a playoff team before the season. If they could go 8-8 in 2013 as their offensive line fell apart and the organization buckled during the Richie Incognito scandal, they should fare at least as well after upgrading their roster.
New tackles Branden Albert and Ja'Wuan James both graded out positively against New England in Pro Football Focus charting, with Albert standing out for his work in the running game. That would have been unthinkable for most of last season.
Beating the Patriots by double digits without getting even an above-average game from quarterback Ryan Tannehill also counts as a positive. Tannehill, sacked on 9.4 percent of dropbacks over his first 15 starts last season, has taken just one sack in 82 dropbacks over his past two starts.
[h=3]2. Atlanta Falcons[/h]Week 1: 37-34 overtime victory over New Orleans as a 3-point home underdog
The Falcons are the only team on the list with a proven, highly productive quarterback. I'm still not sure about the pass rush or depth on the offensive line, but the veteran quarterback I consulted thought Ryan would make the Falcons a contender as long as he had sufficient weapons. Other players I've consulted regarding Ryan have expressed reservations.
"He is one of the best in the league and when you've got a guy [at QB], that is like playing with 12 people," the QB said. "He is that good. Playing this position, you are such a product of the people around you. But if you are good with people around you, that is when you get to 'Star Wars'-type stuff. You throw for 450 yards and can win every game, even when you should not."
Last season, the Falcons became the first team in the eight-year history of the Total QBR metric to finish 4-12 or worse with a team QBR score north of 60. The three other teams with the same QBR score (61.3) won 12, 12 and 10 games.
[h=3]3. Tennessee Titans[/h]Week 1: 26-10 victory over Kansas City as a 3.5-point road underdog
When I visited Titans camp in the spring, coach Ken Whisenhunt dismissed concerns about whether the defensive personnel would translate to the 3-4 base defense coordinator Ray Horton was installing. People around the league had their doubts, but Whisenhunt and Horton were confident the scheme would produce favorable matchups for key players.
One game isn't going to settle the debate, but Week 1 provided evidence the Titans were right. In PFF grading through Sunday, Jurrell Casey ranked second to J.J. Watt among 3-4 defensive ends and Derrick Morgan ranked first among 3-4 outside linebackers. The Titans also got a solid game from quarterback Jake Locker, although he took a few too many hits and has durability concerns longer term.
[h=3]4a. Minnesota Vikings[/h]Week 1: 34-6 victory over St. Louis as a 3.5-point road underdog
The Vikings were one of my potential surprise teams coming into the season. While they exceeded expectations in the opener, they beat a team that playedShaun Hill and Austin Davis at quarterback. The teams ranked above Minnesota overcame much more established quarterbacks (Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Alex Smith). The Vikings have Brady, Brees, Ryan, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford next on their schedule, so we'll learn plenty about their mettle before long.
[h=3]4b. Buffalo Bills[/h]Week 1: 23-20 overtime victory over Chicago as a 7-point road underdog
How quickly EJ Manuel develops will be key, but with Buffalo rushing 33 times for 193 yards against the Bears, the team asked its young QB to drop back just 26 times, about a dozen fewer than the league average for starters. Manuel, credited for firing up the team with a motivational speech during meetings Saturday night, was generally efficient.
"I was impressed," the veteran QB said of Manuel. "I like that he was aggressive, he was good with the football and he gave his team a chance. They have 4-5 really good players around him -- Sammy Watkins, and then Mike Williams is a good player when he is healthy and his mind is right. Robert Woods is good. They have two good backs. We just need to see [Manuel] prove it over 2-3-4 weeks."
[h=3]Notes[/h]• Stafford's discipline: Stafford initially appeared to have forced the ball to Calvin Johnson on their second touchdown connection, but replays showed the throw to be less risky. Detroit's coaches want Stafford taking chances at the right times, not when the score is 0-0 in the first quarter."Calvin Johnson is so unbelievable, I understand why you do things you should not do," Lions offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi said when I visited the team at training camp. "The guy, it is jaw-dropping. This guy is different. It's unreal, the plays he makes every day, so easily. But it just comes down to protecting the football. There is so much that goes into that, knowing the situation and when is a good time to cut it loose, and when is not."
Stafford had no turnovers against the Giants, his fourth turnover-free game since the start of last season. Only Eli Manning and Carson Palmer have more turnovers than Stafford since 2012.
• First-round update: Fourteen of the 32 rookie first-round draft choices started in Week 1, down from an average of 19.5 over the past four seasons. The average is 15.5 over the past 10 years.
Week 1 starters this year included Deone Bucannon (Arizona), Jake Matthews (Atlanta), C.J. Mosley (Baltimore), Sammy Watkins (Buffalo), Kelvin Benjamin (Carolina), Zack Martin(Dallas), Jadeveon Clowney (Houston), Ja'Wuan James (Miami), Anthony Barr (Minnesota),Calvin Pryor (Jets), Khalil Mack (Oakland), Ryan Shazier (Pittsburgh), Jimmie Ward (San Francisco) and Mike Evans (Tampa Bay).
The following non-starters played at least 25 snaps on offense or defense: Bradley Roby(Denver), Justin Gilbert (Cleveland), Brandin Cooks (New Orleans), Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (Green Bay), Kyle Fuller (Chicago), Aaron Donald (St. Louis) and Dominique Easley (New England).
• Fitzgerald's place: The Arizona Cardinals placed Kurt Warner in their Ring of Honor on Monday night and I like his chances for the Pro Football Hall of Fame next year. The same goes for Cardinals receiver Larry Fitzgerald, whose best days could be in the past. Fitzgerald, 31, caught just one pass Monday night. The Cardinals did not even target him until the fourth quarter, a career first for Fitz. Meanwhile, Michael Floyd was catching five passes for 119 yards. Rookie John Brown had the game-winning touchdown grab.
• Cornerback debate, Part I: I've asked quite a few people around the league to rate Richard Sherman, Patrick Peterson and Joe Haden, the three young corners who commanded contract extensions this past offseason. There was no consensus. I'll share various perspectives periodically, beginning with thoughts from an AFC cornerback.
"I would probably put Peterson at No. 1 just because, athletically, he is probably one of the most gifted athletes, period, in the game today," the corner said. "Sherman would be next. The production he has had has not really been matched the last year or two. I like Haden a lot. He matches up with anybody. He is one of those athletically gifted guys, too -- not as much as Peterson, but he is up there."
I asked this corner whether he would downgrade Sherman for playing in a scheme that keeps him on one side of the field, rather than shadowing the other team's top receiver.
"I don't know if I like to downgrade him for it," the corner said. "I wouldn't give him a plus for that, obviously, but he still makes plays. You can't blame him for being in that defense. Regardless of whether he is in a great defense or not, what difference does it make? He still makes plays."
