Service Plays Friday 9/12/14

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Sep 11, 2014

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Can'tPickaWinner2 · Sep 11, 2014

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Can'tPickaWinner2 · Sep 11, 2014

Rocky Atkinson

Baylor -34.5

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Sep 11, 2014

Prediction Machine

108 7:00 PM TOLEDO @ CIN 59 53.9 Under 54.7

110 8:00 PM BAYLOR @ BUFF 67.5 71.0 Over 53.4

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Sep 11, 2014

CFL Betting Recap - Week 11
By Joe Williams

League Betting Notes

Favorites went 3-1 straight up in Week 11
Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 ATS in Week 11
Road teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 11
Home/road teams posted a 2-2 ATS record in Week 11
The 'over' went 3-1 in Week 11

Team Betting Notes

The 'over' finally dominated for the first time in four weeks. The 'under' was 10-3 in the past three weeks entering Week 11.

Calgary (9-1) continues to crush the competition, including their provincial rivals from Edmonton (7-3). The Stampeders won 31-24 on the road against the Eskimos. Calgary has won five straight games and covered each contest.

Ottawa (1-9) lost for the seventh consecutive game Friday against the BC Lions (6-4), but don't blame the RedBlacks' defense. They allowed just seven points, and have given up just 17.3 ppg over the past four losses, all 'unders'.

Montreal (3-7) pulled into a tie for first place in the disappointing East Division with idle Toronto (3-7). The Alouettes have won back-to-back games for the first time this season.

The 'under' had cashed in five of the past six for Montreal, but the 'over' came through against Hamilton (2-7) Sunday.

Saskatchewan (8-2) has rattled off seven straight wins since starting the season 1-2 SU. The Roughriders swept the home-and-home with Winnipeg (6-5).

The Blue Bombers started the season 5-1, but they have dropped four of the past five to fall into last place out West.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Sep 11, 2014

CFL Betting Notes - Week 12
By David Schwab

The cream of the crop in the CFL keeps rising to the top as the regular season rolls into Week 12.

Looking back at last weekend’s results, British Columbia got things started by grinding-out a 7-5 win over Ottawa on Friday night as an eight-point road favorite. The total obviously stayed UNDER the 47-point closing line. On Saturday, Calgary improved its position atop the West Division with a 41-34 victory against Edmonton as a three-point favorite on the road. The total in this contest easily went OVER a closing line of 48½ points.

Sunday’s double-header started with Montreal getting past Hamilton 38-31 as a slight 1 ½-point home underdog with the total going OVER the 46-point line. Saskatchewan held off Winnipeg on the road 30-24 as a 2½-point favorite in the second game. The total went OVER a closing line of 50½ points.

Friday, Sept. 12

Montreal (3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS) at Edmonton (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS)

Point-spread: Edmonton -9
Total: 48½

Game Overview

It has been a rough season for Montreal with injuries and turnover at the quarterback position and some pretty spotty play on defense at times, but in a very weak East Division title race, it is currently tied with Toronto for first place with two wins both straight-up and against the spread in its last two games.

The Eskimos have lost their last two games SU and ATS to fall two games off the pace in the West, but they remain one of the best balanced teams in the CFL with an offense that is averaging 26.1 points per game complementing a defense that is holding teams to 21.1 PPG. Edmonton slotback Adarius Bowman continues to lead the league in receiving yards with 866.

Betting Trends

Montreal has covered ATS in seven of the last nine meetings and the total has gone OVER in the last four meetings in Edmonton. The Eskimos won the first meeting this season 33-23 in early August as 5½-point road favorites and the total went OVER the closing 46½-point line.

Saturday, Sept. 13

Toronto (3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS) at Calgary (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS)

Point-spread: OFF
Total: OFF

Game Overview

Toronto comes off its bye week looking to snap a three-game skid in which it went 1-2 ATS as an underdog. The one bright spot for the Argonauts has been the play of Ricky Ray at quarterback with 2,584 passing yards and a league-high 16 touchdown throws, be he has not been able to keep pace with a defense that is allowing 26.2 PPG.

The Stampeders are charging their way towards the Grey Cup Playoffs with the best record in the league and they come into this matchup riding a five-game winning streak both SU and ATS. Quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell has been one of the biggest surprises this season with the top passer rating in the league (100.5)

Betting Trends

Toronto holds a 7-2 edge ATS in the last nine meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in the last seven meetings in Calgary. The Stampeders rolled to a 34-15 victory early in the season as 2½-point favorites on the road. The total stayed UNDER the 55-point line.

Winnipeg (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS) at British Columbia (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS)

Point-spread: BC -7½
Total: 50½

Game Overview

The Blue Bombers had their chances in the back-end of Sunday’s home-and-home series against Saskatchewan with Drew Willy throwing for 360 yards and two touchdowns, but he was also picked-off twice. He currently leads the CFL in total passing yards (2,889), but he only has one more touchdown throw (12) than interceptions (11).

BC got Travis Lulay back in the lineup as its starting quarterback against the RedBlacks, but his return looks to be short-lived after leaving the game with another shoulder injury. Kevin Glenn did an admirable job at times in his absence, but this could be a big setback for the Lions in their stretch run to the playoffs.

Betting Trends

The Blue Bombers come into this West Division showdown with a 6-2-1 ATS record in the last nine meetings at BC Place and they have a profitable 7-3 mark ATS in the last 10 meetings overall. The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of the last 11 matchups played in BC.

Sunday, Sept. 14

Saskatchewan (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) at Hamilton (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS)

Point-spread: Pick 'em
Total: Off

Game Overview

The defending 2013 Grey Cup Champs have built up a head of steam as the regular season wears on with a seven-straight wins (5-2 ATS). The bad news for this contest could be the availability of quarterback Darian Durant, who left Sunday’s game against Winnipeg with elbow injury. He has been ruled out for Sunday’s game and his status for the remainder of the year does not look good.

Hamilton is in desperate need of a win after posting just one SU victory in its last five games. The Tiger-Cats have failed to cover in all five contests. The 31 points that they did put up in last week’s loss was the most this team scored since a late July win over Ottawa. Zach Collaros threw for 338 yards and two touchdowns while completing 30-of 43 attempts against the Alouettes.

Betting Trends

These two team met on opening day with Saskatchewan cruising to a 31-10 victory as a 3½-point home favorite. It is now 6-1 both SU and ATS in the last seven meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in three of the last four games.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Sep 11, 2014

StatFox Super Situations

CFL | MONTREAL at EDMONTON
Play On - Any team (EDMONTON) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games against opponent after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games
31-8 over the last 5 seasons. ( 79.5% | 22.2 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 1.9 units )

CFL | MONTREAL at EDMONTON
Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (MONTREAL) off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog against opponent off a loss against a division rival
30-7 since 1997. ( 81.1% | 0.0 units )

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Sep 11, 2014

Six best bets in college football you didn't know about
By KEVIN CAUSEY

There are 31 college football teams that are 2-0 ATS in the first two weeks, but just six of those programs have covered as an underdog in both games. Let's take a look at those underrated sides and grade their possible value on ATS heat meter:

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS)

The Bulldogs backdoored bettors by outscoring Oklahoma 13-7 in the fourth quarter after the game was long over in Week 1’s loss to the Sooners. They were big underdogs in Week 2 against Louisiana-Lafayette but won out right by 28 points.

Next Game: at North Texas (-3.5) Thursday

The Bulldogs are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games but just 6-13 in their last 19 games overall. North Texas is 8-1 ATS in its last nine home games. The Mean Green got rocked by 31 points at Texas and then turned around and destroyed SMU by 37. Neither of these teams has shown any sort of consistency through two weeks.

ATS heat meter: Mild

Hawaii Warriors (0-2 SU, 2-0 ATS)

Hawaii has two close losses to Pac-12 opponents. The Warriors played Washington close throughout and scored the only points of the second half in Week 1. They rallied furiously in the fourth quarter and covered the spread with just 1:35 left in the game versus Oregon State in Week 2.

Next game: vs. Northern Iowa (-5) Saturday

Northern Iowa’s only game was a close loss to in-state rival Iowa. Travel will factor into the game as the Panthers have a 15-hour trip and the game also kicks off at 6 p.m. local time/midnight ET (which would be 11 p.m. in Iowa).

ATS heat meter: Hot

Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS)

The Roadrunners beat Houston outright and then hung with Arizona throughout their game and scored in the middle of the fourth quarter to cover the spread.

Next Game: at Oklahoma State (+15) Saturday

The Roadrunners are 4-0 ATS in their last four overall games, 9-1 in their last 10 non-conference games and 8-1 in their last nine road games. The last time they suffered a double-digit loss was to Marshall last season but that same UTSA team also lost to Arizona by 25.

ATS heat meter: Sriracha

UAB Blazers (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS)

The Blazers beat Troy big in week one and then hung around Mississippi State for the majority of their game. Alabama-Birmingham can put up points, ranked 31st in the nation (41 ppg), which always gives a team chances to covering.

Next game: vs. Alabama A&M (-36) Saturday

This is quite a large spread for a team like UAB but they did beat their only 2013 FCS opponent by 24 and appear to be quite a bit better this season under first-year head coach Bill Clark.

ATS heat meter: Jalapeno

New Mexico State Aggies/UTEP Miners (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS/1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS)

These two 2-0 ATS programs meet on Saturday. New Mexico State beat Cal-Poly with a solid performance in Week 1 and then scored with 15 seconds left to beat (and cover) against Georgia State the following game. UTEP jumped on New Mexico early and held on late and then they went wire-to-wire with Texas Tech.

Next game: UTEP -11 Saturday

UTEP has been the more dependable team so far and they also have playmakers in Aaron Jones and Jameill Showers.

ATS heat meter: Five-alarm

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Sep 11, 2014

Bulls aim to upset No. 8 Baylor

Baylor Bears (2-0) vs. Buffalo Bulls (1-1)

Line & Total: Baylor -34, Total: 67.5

No. 8 Baylor has dominated over its first two contests and looks to remain undefeated when it travels to Buffalo on Friday night.

Baylor has had no issues in its first two games, but that was expected as the team was favored by 31.5 points against SMU and 46.5 points versus Northwestern State. The Bears have outscored their opponents by a score of 115-6 and easily covered both lines while having six scoring plays of 40 yards or more. Against Northwestern State, an FCS team, they totaled an immense 720 total yards while converting 13-of-16 third downs, but surprisingly turned the ball over twice.

Buffalo came away victorious in its first game, winning 38-28, but failed to cover the large 27-point spread as a home favorite against Duquesne. The Bulls followed that up with a 47-39 loss as three-point underdogs against Army in which they were down by 30 points early in the fourth quarter before cutting it down over the final 10 minutes. Turnovers did them in as they outgained the Black Knights 549 to 466, but threw three picks as they attempted to make a comeback.

These programs squared off last year in Waco, TX with Baylor dominating as 28.5-point favorites, winning by a score of 70-13 while they outgained the Bulls 781 to 363 and went turnover free. Before that, the Bears had won both SU and ATS in the matchup in both 2007 and 2010, outscoring Buffalo 68-27 over the two contests.

Trends show that Baylor is 23-10 ATS (70%) after gaining 525+ yards per game in its previous two contests since 1992, while the Bulls are 3-0 ATS after 2+ straight ATS defeats since the start of 2012.

The injury report should be watched for this game as starting QB Bryce Petty (back) and last year’s No. 1 receiver Antwan Goodley (leg) are listed as questionable for Baylor, while Buffalo has no significant injuries on its roster.

Over the first two games of this year, Baylor has averaged 647 YPG (4th in FBS) while throwing for the sixth-most yards (384 YPG) and getting 263 YPG on the ground. They have done most of this without the help of last year’s Big 12 Player of the Year, QB Bryce Petty (161 yards, 2 TD), who missed last week’s game with an injured back. They will not rush his return either since QB Seth Russell, who threw for 438 yards (11.7 YPA) and 5 TD (0 INT) in their most recent contest, has done so well.

The quarterback position in this offense is expected to run, and has already rushed the ball for a touchdown twice this year after Petty and Russell combined for 17 scores on the ground in 2013. The backfield has been comprised of three players so far with HBs Johnny Jefferson (164 yards, 1 TD), Shock Linwood (122 yards, 2 TD) and Silas Nicata (124 yards, 3 TD) all earning 20+ carries over two blowout victories. Linwood is the expected feature back after splitting carries with Lache Seastrunk in 2013 and totaling 881 yards (6.9 YPC) with eight touchdowns.

Meanwhile, freshman WR KD Cannon was explosive against Northwestern State, going for 223 yards (37.2 avg) and already has tallied four touchdowns on the young season. WRs Davion Hall (11 rec, 164 yards, 1 TD) and Jay Lee (10 rec, 158 yards, 2 TD) have been the other workhorses in the passing game thus far with top WR Antwan Goodley missing the first two games.

The Bears have not played any offenses of note so far, so the fact that they have allowed a meager 134 YPG (2nd in FBS) and 3.0 PPG (3rd in FBS) is no real surprise. Buffalo should give them a little more of a test, but LB Bryce Hager (14 tackles) hopes he can lead the team to another impressive performance.

The Buffalo offense has actually played quite well in the early going and ranks in the top-30 in total yards (510.5 YPG) while slinging the ball around for an impressive 347 YPG (16th in FBS). They have scored 38.5 PPG and have shown they can be explosive as they posted 36 points against Army in the second half of their week two loss. The Bulls have a strong offensive line with all five of their starters returning from 2013 and QB Joe Licata (694 yards, 8 TD, 4 INT) has already put forth two performances of 295+ yards.

In the team’s bid to make a comeback against Army, the junior QB was 34-for-49 (69%) with 396 yards (8.1 YPA) and 5 TD while also trying to force the ball, leading to three interceptions. HB Anthone Campbell has carried the workload in the backfield with 194 yards on 46 carries (4.2 YPC) while scoring two touchdowns. He should receive a lot of help from hybrid HB/WR Devin Campbell who has rushed for 78 yards (6.5 YPC) and caught the ball eight times for 67 yards (8.4 avg) with 2 TD.

The Bulls lost nearly all of their WR production from last year but seem to be rebounding quite will as five different players have six or more receptions. The leaders to come out of this group are WRs Ron Willoughby (187 yards, 2 TD) and Marcus McGill (163 yards, 2 TD) who have combined for 25 catches in the first two contests.

The defense has not looked on par over the first two games, and seems to be feeling the loss of LB Khalil Mack as they have allowed 37.5 PPG with 419.5 YPG to their opponents. DB Adam Redden (16 tackles, 2 sacks) and LB Lee Skinner (15 tackles) have a tough task ahead of them with Baylor and hope they can capture some for their defensive prowess from last year when they allowed just 13.2 PPG to opponents at home.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Sep 11, 2014

MAC Doubleheader Betting Preview and Picks
By: Michael Robinson

Two MAC football teams, playing as solid underdogs, will be looking for upsets when they take part in an ESPN family of networks twin-bill on Friday night.

Toledo Rockets at Cincinnati Bearcats (-12, 59)

Line movement: The Wynn opened Cincinnati -13, but quickly moved down to -12. As of midweek, the Wynn remains at that number, but the Bearcats can be found for as low as -10.5 around Las Vegas. Visit our live odds page for updated college football lines. Trends that matter: The OVER is 2-0 for Toledo this year and 7-2 in its last nine overall. Cincinnati was 3-1 SU, but 1-3 ATS in its final four home games last year.

The AAC Bearcats are the only FBS team to have not played a game yet. Their campus venue is being renovated, and they’re sharing the Bengals’ Paul Brown Stadium this year.

Coach Tommy Tuberville is in his second year with the school, going 9-4 last year. He's named sophomore Gunner Kiel, who has yet to throw a pass in a competitive game since transferring from Notre Dame, as his starting QB. Senior Munchie Legaux and junior college transfer Jarred Evans could both also play.

The Rockets (1-1 SU and ATS) started with a win (54-20 as 11.5-point home favorites over FCS New Hampshire), followed by a loss versus Missouri (49-24 as 3.5-point home dogs).

Quarterback Phillip Ely was a combined 41-of-68 for 541 yards (143.6 rating), but suffered a season-ending knee injury in the third quarter last week. Sophomore Logan Woodside or freshman Michael Julian will get the nod on Friday.

The Rockets’ secondary is also suffering injuries at cornerback and is 112th in the nation in passing yards allowed (331.5 YPG). That’s a good sign for Kiel.

Injuries that matter: Toledo quarterback Ely (knee) is out. Cornerback Cameron Cole (knee) is out for the season, and Cheatham Norrils (infection) is out indefinitely.

Weather: Partly cloudy and in the low 60s. See wunderground.com for the latest forecast.

The Linemakers' lean: This is a lot of points for Cincinnati to be laying when the Bearcats haven’t even played a game yet this season and weren't even sure who was starting at QB until this week. Toledo lost its starter, Ely, to an season-ending ACL injury last week against Missouri, but backup Logan Woodside is capable of leading its high-powered offense. They may pull of an outright upset in this spot, so we’re taking the points with Toledo, which is battle-hardened with two games already.

Baylor Bears (-35, 68) at Buffalo Bulls

Baylor easily handled Buffalo last September, racking up 781 yards in total offense and winning 70-13 as 28.5-point home favorites. Fatigue could be a slight factor this week with Baylor playing its third game in 13 days.

The Line: Baylor -35, Total: 68

Line movement: The Wynn opened Baylor -32.5 on Sunday, dropped the line to -31.5 later that same day, drew favorite money at that price and has moved all the way to -35.5 since. As of Wednesday, the Bears can be found for as low as -34 around Las Vegas, and the total sits between 67.5 and 68. Visit our live odds page for updated college football lines from Vegas.

Trends that matter: Baylor is 6-1 ATS in its last seven non-conference games. The OVER is 10-2 in its last 12 non-conference tilts. Buffalo is 0-4 ATS in its last four games.

The AP No. 8 Bears (2-0 SU and ATS) had easy wins and covers over SMU (45-0) and FCS Northwestern State (70-6). The team was missing star quarterback Bryce Petty for the Northwestern State game last Saturday, as well as receivers Antwan Goodley, Levi Norwood and Corey Coleman.

Heisman candidate Petty is expected to start against Buffalo.

The Bulls (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) started their season with a home win (38-28) over FCS Duquesne before a road loss at Army (47-39). Junior quarterback Joe Licata (396 yards, five TDs and three INTs last game) almost led a comeback against Army after his team trailed 47-17 in the fourth quarter.

Buffalo knows it can’t afford to spot Baylor a big lead, no matter who is playing quarterback. Most of the offensive pressure will be on Licata, as Baylor has a very good rush defense (27 YPG, 1st nationally).

Injuries that matter: Baylor coach Art Briles said earlier this week that he expects Coleman (hamstring) to be back and that Goodley (leg) is about 50/50 to play. Norwood (wrist) is out. Buffalo cornerback Marqus Baker (illness) is questionable after missing the first two games.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the upper 50s with a chance of rain. See wunderground.com for the latest forecast.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Sep 11, 2014

Games of the Day: College football Doubleheader

Toledo Rockets at Cincinnati Bearcats (-9.5, 58)

Cincinnati finally get its season going Friday night when it hosts in-state foe Toledo in a non-conference game. While the rest of the nation has been playing for a week or two, the Bearcats have been forced to grind through extra practice, a task that has been difficult for the coaching staff. "We've had to be very imaginative the last few weeks trying to keep our guys focused on what they are doing, trying to get better," coach Tommy Tuberville told reporters Tuesday.

Tuberville - in his first season with Cincinnati last year - guided the Bearcats to a third-place finish in their inaugural American Athletic Conference campaign and a berth in the Belk Bowl. Toledo has already played a pair of games, first topping New Hampshire before a rough first half led to a 49-24 loss at home to No. 22 Missouri last Saturday in a game that saw quarterback Phillip Ely suffering a season-ending ACL tear. Cincinnati leads the series 4-3 but the Rockets have won the last three meetings, including a 29-23 triumph in 2012.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPNU.

LINE HISTORY: Cincinnati opened as 11-point favorites, but have been bet down to -9.5. The total opened at 59.5 had has moved down a point to sit at 58.5.

INJURY REPORT: Toledo - QB Phillip Ely (out for season, knee), OL Nate Jeppesen (out indefinitely, leg). Cincinnati - QB Munchie Legaux (questionable Friday, knee).

WEATHER REPORT: There is an eight percent chance of rain with temperatures in the low 70s at gametime. There will also be a six mil per hour wind blowing towards the southwest endzone.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "In Cincinnati we will see the long anticipated debut of former five star recruit Gunner Kiel, who will start at quarterback for the Bearcats. Coming out of high school he was garnering comparisons to Peyton Manning, but he sat out last year after transferring from Notre Dame." Jesse Shule

ABOUT TOLEDO (1-1, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U): Ely will be replaced by Logan Woodside, who took over against Missouri following the injury and was 6-for-10 for 52 yards. Woodside, a sophomore, saw sporadic action last season, going 21-for-41 for 240 yards and a touchdown. His inexperience should allow the Bearcats to give their attention to running back Kareem Hunt, who ran for 148 yards and three touchdowns last weekend and is averaging 8.1 yards per carry through his first two games.

ABOUT CINCINNATI (2013: 9-4, 6-7 ATS, 7-6 O/U): The Bearcats are also breaking in an inexperienced, albeit highly touted, quarterback in sophomore transfer Gunner Kiel, who was the nation's top quarterback prospect coming out of high school before redshirting at Notre Dame. Tuberville said that while Kiel is the No. 1 guy and has impressed in preseason practice, others could see action against Toledo under center. One of those options is senior Munchie Legaux, who is coming back from a knee injury that ended his 2013 campaign after two games.

TRENDS:

* Rockets are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
* Bearcats are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 non-conference games.
* Under is 8-1 in the Rockets last 9 road games.
* Over is 4-1 in the Bearcats last 5 home games.

CONSENSUS: Almost 60 percent of wagers are backing the Bearcats at -9.5.

Baylor Bears at Buffalo Bulls (+34.5, 69.5)

Quarterback Bryce Petty returns to the lineup when No. 7 Baylor and its high-flying offense travel to Buffalo on Friday. "He's healthy. He's in good shape,'' Bears coach Art Briles told reporters before Tuesday's practice about Petty, who missed last week's 70-6 victory over FCS member Northwestern State with a back injury. Briles, though, said it is unlikely that wide receivers Corey Coleman (hamstring) and Antwan Goodwin will play.

Baylor didn't seem to miss its Heisman Trophy-hopeful quarterback or its top four receivers last week as backup Seth Russell and a host of freshmen playmakers racked up 720 yards. The Baylor defense has been equally dominant, allowing a total of six points and 269 yards to Northwestern State and Southern Methodist. The Bulls scored in bunches - getting five second-half touchdown passes from Joe Licata - as a late rally fell short in a 47-39 loss to Army.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened with Baylor as huge 34-point favorites and it now sits at Bears -34.5. The total has been bet up two points after opening at 67.5 and now sits at 69.5.

INJURY REPORT: Baylor - QB Bryce Petty (probable Friday, spine), WR Antwan Goodley (doubtful Friday, leg), WR Corey Coleman (doubtful Friday, hamstring), RB Devin Chafin (out Friday, ankle). Buffalo - DB Marqus Baker (doubtful Friday, illness).

WEATHER REPORT: It will be partly cloudy with temperatures in the mid 50s and an eight percent chance of rain. There will also be a five mile per hour wind blowing the southwest corner of the south endzone.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "In Buffalo all eyes are on Bryce Petty, who expected to return to action after sitting out last week with a back injury. The Bears didn't miss him much though, scoring 70 points in a blowout win over Northwestern State." Jesse Shule

ABOUT BAYLOR (2-0, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Freshman speedster KD Cannon is sixth nationally with 141 receiving yards per game and has four touchdowns after scoring on 50-, 81- and 42-yard plays last week. Freshman Davion Hall has 11 catches for 164 yards and a touchdown this season and freshman Johnny Jefferson is one of three Bears - joining Shock Linwood and Silas Nacita - with more than 120 rushing yards through two games. The Baylor defense, which has not allowed a touchdown, is ranked third nationally in scoring (three points allowed per game), first in rushing defense (27 yards per game), second in total defense (134.5 yards) and tied for first with six sacks per game.

ABOUT BUFFALO (1-1, 0-2 ATS, 2-0 O/U): Licata is 60-of-86 for 699 yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions. Ron Willoughby (187 receiving yards), Marcus McGill (168 receiving yards) and Devin Campbell (67 receiving, 78 rushing) each have two touchdown catches. The Bulls, who lost at Baylor 70-13 last year, are tied for 110th among the 124 FBS teams in points allowed (37.5) and 90th in yards allowed (419.5).

TRENDS:

* Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.
* Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last six non-conference games.
* Over is 10-2 in the Bears in their last 12 non-conference games.
* Over is 7-0 in the Bulls last seven non-conference games.

CONSENSUS: Just over 72 percent of wagers are on Baylor at -34.5.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Sep 11, 2014

Friday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards

Toledo at Cincinnati

As of Wednesday morning, most betting shops had Cincinnati (0-0 straight up, 0-0 against the spread) installed as an 11-point home favorite with a total of 59.5. Bettors can back the Rockets on the money line for a +330 return (risk $100 to win $330).

Tommy Tuberville's team went 9-4 both SU and ATS in his first season at the helm after replacing Butch Jones. The Bearcats won nine of their first 11 games, but they lost a 31-24 decision to Louisville as three-point home underdogs in overtime to close the regular season. Then at the Belk Bowl, Cincy got thumped 39-17 by North Carolina as a 2.5-point 'dog.

Cincy returns seven starters on offense and six on defense. QB Brendon Kay is gone and Notre Dame transfer Gunner Kiel has been named the starter for the opener. Kiel, who was an original oral commitment to LSU before changing his mind on Signing Day, was considered the nation's No. 1 prep signal caller in the 2012 class. Things didn't work out in South Bend and we'll see how it goes at Cincy. If Kiel is ineffective, Tuberville has another experienced option in Munchie Legaux, who has 13 career starts and offers a scrambling dynamic. Legaux suffered a season-ending knee injury in 2013 but has recovered and is ready to go Friday if needed.

Cincy posted a 3-2 spread record in five games as a home favorite last season. In six games as a double-digit 'chalk' whether at home or on the road, the Bearcats went 3-3 ATS.

Cincy returns its top three rushers and one of the AAC's top wide receivers in Shaq Washington, who had 999 all-purpose yards in 2013. Washington had 78 receptions for 783 yards. The Bearcats have one of the league's best pass rushers in junior DE Silverberry Mouhon, who was a second-team All-AAC selection after recording 9.5 sacks and seven QB hurries.

Toledo (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) won its opener by a 54-20 count over New Hampshire as an 11-point home favorite. QB Phillip Ely, a transfer from Alabama, completed 24-of-34 passes for 337 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. Kareem Hunt rushed for 136 yards and two scores on 20 carries.

Missouri came to The Glass Bowl last week and the oddsmakers gave Toledo plenty of respect, listing it as just a 3.5-point home underdog. This was a bad line, however, and I jumped all over it. Missouri raced out to an early lead and coasted to a 49-24 victory and easy spread cover. The Rockets defense gave up 502 yards of total offense and allowed Maty Mauk to throw five TD passes. On the bright side, Hunt was productive once again, rushing for 148 yards and three TDs on just 15 carries.

The biggest downer coming out of the loss to Missouri was the season-ending injury to Ely, who tore his ACL. The starting job now goes to true sophomore Logan Woodside, who started one game as a freshman when he completed 21-of-41 passes for 240 yards and one TD without an interception. In the second half against the Tigers, Woodside connected on 6-of-10 throws for 52 yards. With Woodside at QB, look for a heavy dose of Hunt, who is averaging 8.1 yards per carry.

Toledo has thrived as a road underdog on Matt Campbell's watch, going 7-1 ATS. Whether at home or away or on a neutral field, the Rockets are 4-1 ATS in five games as double-digit 'dogs during Campbell's tenure.

The 'over' has hit in both of Toledo's games with scoring outputs of 74 and 73 combined points.

These schools squared off at The Glass Bowl two seasons ago, with Toledo capturing a 29-23 win as a six-point home underdog. The Rockets got the victory thanks to a long pick-six and a Bernard Reedy kickoff return for a TD.

Cincy's Nipper Stadium is undergoing expansion and renovation this year, so the Bearcats' home games will be played at the home of the Bengals, Paul Brown Stadium.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.

Baylor at Buffalo

As of Wednesday morning, most spots had Baylor (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) installed as a 34-point favorite with a total of 67.5. -- After missing a chance to pad his stats in an easy Week 2 win, Baylor senior QB Bryce Petty has been upgraded to 'probable' and will start against the Bulls. In a 45-0 season-opening home win over SMU, Petty sustained a pair of cracked bones in his lower back. He only played in the first half, connecting on a pair of TD passes and running for another score.

Without Petty, Art Briles' squad cruised to a 70-6 home win over Northwestern State as a 47-point home favorite. Baylor raced out to a 49-3 advantage by halftime. Seth Russell was outstanding in Petty's place, throwing for 438 yards and five TDs without an interception. He also had a rushing score. True freshman WR K.D. Cannon, the prize of the program's 2014 recruiting haul, exploded with six receptions for 223 yards and three TDs. Johnny Jefferson rushed for a team-high 107 yards and one TD, while Silas Nacita had 104 rushing yards and a pair of TDs.

In the win over the Demons, Baylor played without Petty, WR Antwan Goodley, WR Levi Norwood, WR Corey Coleman and WR Clay Fuller. Along with Petty, Coleman has been upgraded to 'probable' for Friday night. However, Goodley (leg) remains 'doubtful,' while Norwood and Fuller are 'out.'

During Briles's seven-year tenure, Baylor is 3-6 ATS in nine games as a road favorite. The Bears are 1-6 ATS in its last seven such spots going back to 2011.

Buffalo (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) failed to cover the spread in a 38-28 Week 1 victory over Duquesne as a 28.5-point home favorite. Joe Licata completed 25-of-36 passes for 298 yards and three TDs, while Anthone Taylor ran for 115 yards and two TDs. Ron Willoughby had 10 receptions for 132 yards and two TDs.

Buffalo lost a 47-39 decision at Army as a three-point underdog last weekend. The Bulls trailed 28-3 midway through the third quarter, but Licata nearly brought them all the way back. The junior signal caller was intercepted three times, which obviously helped create the deficit. However, Licata ended up throwing for 401 yards and five TDs, pulling his team to within eight points with 2:42 remaining on a TD pass and another throw into the end zone to convert a two-point conversion. Marcus McGill had seven catches for 128 yards and two TDs.

Buffalo owns a 5-6 spread record in 11 games as a home underdog during Jeff Quinn's tenure.

When these teams met in Waco last year, Baylor rolled to a 70-13 win as a 27.5-point road 'chalk.' The Bears had 781 yards of total offense with Petty passing for 338 yards and a pair of TDs without an interception.

ESPN will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Sep 11, 2014

Bears and Bulls could be a wet affair
Justin Hartling

When the Buffalo Bulls host the No.7 Baylor Bears they could have a distinct weather advantage. Winds are expected to blow off the Great Lakes gusting upwards of eight miles per hour with a 60 percent chance of rain.

Buffalo are 34.5-point home dogs Friday.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Sep 11, 2014

Better baseball bets abound with oddsmakers focusing on football
By MARC MELTZER

It’s officially football season. There's no hiding from it.

The media is in love with football more than any year I can remember. It’s not just mainstream media and it’s definitely overkill. The football media that I follow on Twitter and Facebook have amped their output to the point that it’s almost obnoxious.

Multiple football sources that used to spit out a few interesting bits of data per week are now matching that hourly. It’s obnoxious and that’s fine. I love the football information and there's obviously demand for it. I’m still working on baseball season and will be able to use this to my advantage.

I mentioned a few weeks back that it’s time to hunker down on baseball but now it’s the ninth inning. And just like baseball, football bettors have access to more information than ever before.

Since football has so many more bettors, the sportsbooks can’t be asleep at the wheel. They have to make sharper point spreads and totals for football than ever before. Weak lines will be pounded. Gamblers know too much and that can be detrimental if the wrong numbers are posted.

Generally at the end of the MLB regular season, you’ll find wider moneyline spreads and a little less value in many lines. At the same time, you might find extra value in those lines. I think the over-obsession with football is going to help us MLB bettors more than expected.

I usually start slowing down my baseball betting in September because I love football but that’s not going to be the case this year. Almost daily, I’m seeing more MLB lines to my liking than ever before at this time of the year. It’s almost as if the books are getting lazy and just putting lines out for baseball just to have them there. Thank you.

With football season upon us, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention some of my favorite Las Vegas sportsbooks to watch the games.

The Venetian is my favorite book for any sport but especially football. Besides the great TV screens, the space is huge and sort of enclosed. Sound echoes and it makes for a great environment to watch NFL games. If you’re a fantasy player and always checking your score you can bring a mobile charger or laptop to plug into one of the outlets at the workstations to keep track of your scores.

The Mirage renovated its sportsbook a couple years ago and it’s beautiful. The seating is mostly plus lounge chairs and the TV screen spans the entire wall. The picture is crystal clear and they show every game you’d want to see. Since this is a larger book, the roars when something good or bad happens are amazing. If you need a quick bite, there are multiple restaurants about 30 seconds away.

If you’re looking to get away from the tourists but still want a large crowd you can head out to the sportsbook at Red Rock Resort. It’s about 20 minutes off the Vegas Strip and one of the bigger books to watch the games off the Strip.

The TV screens are huge but need to be updated. Unlike some other sportsbooks, there are cocktail waitresses walking around all day so a drink is never too far away. If you don’t mind well drinks and cheap beer, you may even get some drink tickets when you place wagers here.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Sep 11, 2014

Gonzalez money for the Nationals in New York
Justin Hartling

The Washington Nationals could not be sending a better pitcher to Citi Field's mound Friday. Gio Gonzalez has led the Nationals to six straight victories in New York.

Gonzalez has given up eight runs over his past six starts in the Big Apple while averaging six strikeouts per game.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Sep 11, 2014

Marlins have been decimated by Hamels
Justin Hartling

The Miami Marlins have been completely dominated by Cole Hamels. In Hamels' last 11 starts against the Marlins, the total has gone under nine times thanks to his pitching performance.

Hamels has given up less than two runs per game while averaging nearly seven K's a contest.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Sep 11, 2014

This Padres pitcher has been a boon for totals
Justin Hartling

Eric Stults will take the mound with an impressive under streak against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Under has gone 8-1 in the lefties last nine starts against the D-Backs.

Stults has only surrendered 2.4 runs per game and has only twice in those nine games has he allowed more than three runs.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Sep 11, 2014

[h=1]Today's CFL Picks[/h][h=2]Montreal at Edmonton[/h]Montreal heads to Edmonton on Friday night and comes into the contest with a 1-4 ATS record in their last 5 Friday games. Edmonton is the pick (-10) according to Dunkel, which has the Eskimos favored by 15 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-10). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 12
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (9/11)

Game 291-292: Montreal at Edmonton (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 104.673; Edmonton 119.978
Dunkel Line: Edmonton by 15 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Edmonton by 10; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-10); Over

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Sep 12, 2014

MLB

National League

Marlins-Phillies
Alvarez is 0-1, 9.35 in his last two starts.
Hamels is 2-1, 3.33 in his last four starts.

Miami lost six of last nine road games; they lost Stanton last night after he got drilled in the face with a pitched ball. .
Philly lost four of its last five games.

Under is 10-2-2 in last fourteen Hamels starts.

Cubs-Pirates
Wada is 0-1, 6.75 in his last two starts.
Cole is 1-1, 4.62 in his last four starts.

Cubs lost their last six games, scoring ten runs.
Pittsburgh won six of its last seven games.

Last seven Pirate home games stayed under the total.

Nationals-Mets
Gonzalez is 2-0, 2.88 in his last four starts.
Gee is 2-1, 3.20 in his last three starts.

Nationals won four of their last five games; they've won 12 games in a row at Citi Field.
Mets won eight of their last eleven games.

Under is 4-1-1 in Mets' last six games.

Reds-Brewers
Latos is 1-2, 6.00 in his last three starts.
Lohse is 1-3, 8.20 in his last four starts. .

Reds won their last three games, allowing seven runs.
Milwaukee lost 13 of its last 16 games, but won last two.

Five of last seven Milwaukee games went over the total.

Rockies-Cardinals
de la Rosa is 0-2, 4.86 in his last three starts.
Wainwright is 3-2, 4.50 in his last five starts.

Colorado lost their last three games, scoring two runs.
Cardinals lost their last three games, scoring seven runs.

Five of last six Colorado games stayed under total.

Padres-Diamondbacks
Stults is 0-3, 4.67 in his last three starts.
Nuno is 0-2, 2.15 in his last four starts.

Padres lost seven of their last eight games.
Arizona lost its last six games, scoring eight runs.

10 of last 15 San Diego games stayed under total.

Dodgers-Giants
Ryu is 5-1, 2.24 in his last eight starts.
Bumgarner is 4-0, 2.25 in his last four starts.

Dodgers won five of their last six games.
Giants won 12 of their last 15 games.

Four of last five Dodger games went over total.

American League

Bronx-Orioles
Greene is 1-2, 5.95 in his last four starts. McCarthy is 1-2, 5.21 in his last three starts.
Norris is 4-1, 3.86 in his last eight starts. Gausmn is 1-3, 5.01 in his last four.

Bronx lost three of its last four road games.
Orioles won their last four games, scoring 25 runs.

Under is 6-0-1 in last seven McCarthy starts; last seven Norris starts went over the total.

Rays-Blue Jays
Karns was 0-1, 7.50 in three starts for Washington LY; he is 9-9, 5.08 in 27 AAA starts this season.
Happ is 1-3, 6.04 in his last five starts.

Tampa Bay lost six of its last nine games.
Blue Jays won nine of their last eleven games.

Over is 3-0-1 in last four Tampa Bay games .

Indians-Tigers
Carrasco is 4-0, 0.71 in his last six starts.
Price is 1-3, 5.26 in his last four starts.

Cleveland won five of its last seven games.
Tigers won three of their last four games.

Last six Carrasco starts stayed under the total.

Twins-White Sox
Hughes is 5-1, 2.52 in his last seven starts.
Quintana is 1-0, 2.07 in his last couple starts.

Minnesota lost six of its last seven games.
White Sox won three of their last four games.

Five of last seven White Sox games stayed under.

Red Sox-Royals
Webster is 0-2, 8.69 in his last four starts.
Ventura is 3-0, 1.96 in his last three starts.

Red Sox lost four of their last five games. .
Kansas City lost three of its last four games.

Nine of last 12 Royal games stayed under total. .

Astros-Angels
Oberholtzer is 1-2, 6.75 in his last four starts.
Wilson is 1-1, 4.98 in his last four starts.

Houston won eight of its last ten games.
Angels won their last eight games, scoring 70 runs.

Under is 8-1-1 in last ten Houston games.

A's-Mariners
Hammel is 1-0, 1.66 in his last three starts
Paxton is 2-1, 1.33 in his last three starts.

A's lost 13 of their last 16 road games.
Seattle lost three of its last four games.

Under is 4-0-1 in last five Seattle games.

Interleague game

Braves-Rangers
Wood is 3-1, 2.13 in his last six starts.
Holland allowed one run in 14 IP in his first two '14 starts.

Atlanta lost six of its last nine games.
Rangers lost 11 of their last 12 games.

Under is 8-4 in last twelve Texas games.

Teams' record when this starting pitcher starts:
-- Alvarez 18-8; Hamels 13-14
-- Wada 4-6; Cole 13-6
-- Gonzalez 14-10; Gee 8-11
-- Latos 6-10; Lohse 17-11
-- de la Rosa 16-12; Wainwright 20-9
-- Stults 10-18; Nuno 6-8/1-10
-- Ryu 13-5; Bumgarner 18-12

-- Greene 7-4, McCarthy 4-14/7-5; Norris 16-9, Gausman 9-8
-- Karns 0-0; Happ 11-11
-- Carrasco 5-5; Price 14-9/3-4
-- Hughes 18-11; Quintana 10-19
-- Webster 4-4; Ventura 15-11
-- Oberholtzer 9-12; Wilson 14-13
-- Hammel 10-7/2-8; Paxton 6-3

-- Wood 10-11; Holland 2-0

Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Alvarez 6-26; Hamels 3-27
-- Wada 3-10; Cole 6-19
-- Gonzalez 9-24; Gee 4-19
-- Latos 2-16; Lohse 11-28
-- de la Rosa 10-28; Wainwright 4-29
-- Stults 10-28; Nuno 6-25
-- Ryu 2-18; Bumgarner 9-30

-- Greene 3-11, McCarthy 6-30; Norris 9-25, Gausman 4-17
-- Karns 0-0; Happ 5-22
-- Carrasco 2-10; Price 11-30
-- Hughes 6-29; Quintana 6-29
-- Webster 2-8; Ventura 7-26
-- Oberholtzer 9-21; Wilson 6-27
-- Hammel 7-27; Paxton 2-9

-- Wood 6-21; Holland 0-2

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Sep 12, 2014

NCAAF

Friday's games
Long-awaiting debut of nomadic QB Kiel, who committed to three clubs before he got to Cincinnati. Bearcats are last D-I team to tee it up; they are 11-7 as home favorites last three years, 3-2 under Tuberville. Toledo got hammered at home by former coach Pinkel's Mizzou squad last week; now they face Bearcat squad they upset 29-23 (+6) two years ago. Toledo covered 12 of last 16 as road dog, 7 of 8 under Campbell.

Baylor QB Petty (back) expected to play against Buffalo squad that lost 70-13 (+37) in Waco LY, with Bears gaining 781 yards, averaging around 18 yards per pass attempt. Buffalo is 5-3 in last eight games as a home dog; they lost seven starters on defense, gave up 341 rushing yards last week to Army, which tried only seven passes (7-7/125). Baylor covered only one of last seven as a road favorite, eight of last 11 outside Big X.

Service Plays Friday 9/12/14

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