Service Plays Friday 9/19/14

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Baseball Crusher
Seattle Mariners -147 over LA Angels - pending
Tampa Bay Rays -132 over Chicago White Sox
(System Record: 98-2, won last 8 games)
Overall Record: 98-69

Rest of the Plays
Pittsburgh Pirates -120 over Milwaukee Brewers
Kansas City Royals -113 over Detroit Tigers
San Diego Padres +120 over SF Giants
 

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Football Crusher
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 over Atlanta Falcons - pending
South Florida -125 over Connecticut
(System Record: 6-1, lost last game)
Overall Record: 6-7
 

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Gremio + Santos OVER 2 - brazil pending
Quilmes + Lanus OVER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
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Huskies, Bulls open AAC play

UConn Huskies (1-2) at South Florida Bulls (1-2)
Line & Total: South Florida -1.5, Total: 47.5

Two struggling teams square off in an American Athletic Conference battle on Friday when UConn travels to South Florida.

The Huskies have looked very poor in the early going of the 2014 season, as they have taken losses against both BYU and Boise State, while their only win was a three-point victory (19-16) against Stony Brook, which is an FCS club. Their game against Boise State last week was actually quite close though, as Connecticut cut the deficit to three points just before the final quarter, but could not hold off the Broncos, allowing two late touchdowns while failing to cover the 15-point spread. The Huskies managed 290 yards of offense with a meager 48 coming from the running game.

The Bulls are coming off of a 2-10 season and are not looking to have improved much in 2014. Just like its opponent, USF’s one win came against an FCS team, Western Carolina, in the opening week by a score of 36-31. Since then, the Bulls have averaged just 17.0 PPG in their two losses and really took a beating (49-17) at the hands of NC State as 2.5-point underdogs most recently. South Florida gained a putrid 159 yards of offense in the matchup as they turned the ball over three times and gave up 589 total yards to the Wolfpack.

Last season’s installment of this matchup was extremely ugly, as the Bulls went on the road and won 13-10 as 3.5-point underdogs despite connecting on only 8-of-28 passes for 106 yards. Connecticut holds a slight 5-4 SU edge (4-4 ATS) between these programs since 2007 and has won SU in its past two visits to South Florida.

The Bulls have not done well at all as a favorite with a 0-8 ATS record since the start of 2012 while the Huskies have gone just 2-11 ATS in the first half of the year in the same timeframe.

The injury to QB Casey Cochran (concussion) is a blow to the Connecticut club, as he will be out for the entire season, while bettors should keep an eye on whether or not playmaking WR Andre Davis (sternum) suits up for USF, since he is listed as questionable.

UConn has one of the worst run games in the nation, ranking seventh-worst among FBS schools in rushing yards (76 YPG) while doing slightly better in the passing game (223 YPG) and scoring 16.7 PPG (9th-lowest in nation). With Casey Cochran out for the season, QB Chandler Whitmer (464 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT) has taken over under center. He has not done well over the past two seasons with the program, throwing 14 TD and 22 INT, and is completing less than 50 percent of his passes in 2014.

Unfortunately, the team will be relying on him heavily to guide them, as their running game does little to nothing as HB Max DeLorenzo leads the sad group with 104 yards (3.6 YPC). The one true bright spot on this club is WR Geremy Davis who has 256 receiving yards (16.0 avg) and two touchdowns this year, and was the key to their one win as he grabbed six balls for 113 yards (18.8 avg) and a touchdown.

The Huskies defense has given up 406.5 YPG to opponents in FBS play thus far, and hope that a strong secondary led by senior DB Byron Jones (12 tackles) can help turn things around.

South Florida is similar to its Friday opponent, in that the offense has been poor in 2014, averaging 371 YPG with just 182.5 YPG of that coming from the passing attack. QB Mike White (275 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) has been very unimpressive while completing 32.6% of his attempts that have gone for a low 6.4 YPA. Last week NC State baffled White as he completed 4-of-16 attempts for 82 yards and a TD.

Freshman HB Marlon Mack (399 yards, 4 TD) has been a great surprise for the Bulls, but had most of his production come in the opening win against Western Carolina when he rushed for 275 yards (11.5 avg) and four touchdowns. The receivers on this team will not impress anyone with WR Rodney Adams (116 yards) leading the team, while WR Deonte Welch (76 yards) has the most receptions (seven) and WR Reyshene Bronson (80 yards) has the lone touchdown.

The defense for the Bulls had its worst game last week, but will look to turn things around behind leader LB Reshard Cliett (7 tackles, 2 sacks).
 
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Game of the Day: Connecticut at South Florida

Connecticut Huskies at South Florida Bulls (-2, 45)

Very little went right for South Florida in its first season under then-rookie coach Willie Taggart, with one of the few exceptions being how it played at the start of its conference schedule. The Bulls on Friday look to win their American Athletic Conference opener for the second straight season when they host Connecticut. South Florida went 2-10 in 2013 – the worst campaign in its 17-year football history – but managed to defeat Cincinnati and the Huskies to begin league play last October.

The Bulls did not score an offensive touchdown in either victory and have only tallied one in each of their last two losses since freshman Marlon Mack rushed for four by himself in a season-opening win over Western Carolina. Connecticut also secured its only victory against an FCS foe in Stony Brook, although it was able to frustrate undefeated Brigham Young in its opener and played Boise State tight through three-plus quarters last Saturday. The Huskies and Bulls have met every year since 2005 and each of the former Big East rivals’ last seven meetings has been decided by seven points or fewer.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: South Florida opened as 3.5-point home faves, but have been bet down to -2. The total opened at 47.5 points and has also been bet down to 45.

INJURY REPORT: Connecticut - N/A. South Florida - OL Thor Jozwiak (probable Friday, arm), WR Andre Davis (questionable Friday, sternum).

WEATHER REPORT: The is supposed to be a thunderstorm in the region and an 80 pecent chance of rain at game time. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid 70s, with humidity reaching as high as 84 percent.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "On Monday afternoon we got sharp play on UConn +3.5, so we moved Huskies to +3. That was followed by another sharpie bet on UConn +3, so we moved game to current number of Bulls -2. We have a small decision on spread, as 53 percent of the cash and 55 percent of bets are backing USF. The total remains at 46 and 70 percent of the cash and 59 percent of bets so far are on the under." - Mike Perry.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY:

ABOUT CONNECTICUT (1-2, 0-3 ATS, 1-2 O/U): First-year coach Bob Diaco was pleased with his defense despite giving up 38 points last week as it held Boise State 245 yards below its season average in total offense and limited Broncos’ running back Jay Ajayi 113 yards under his season rushing average. "The defense, playing basically the same system they played in week one, looked nothing like it looked in week one. I'm proud of the way that they played today," Diaco said. Chandler Whitmer became the eighth player in program history to surpass 4,000 passing yards after throwing for a season-high 209 last week.

ABOUT SOUTH FLORIDA (1-2, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U): The Bulls have played eight freshmen this season and two have already left a mark on the offensive end, including Mack’s AAC-record 275 yards rushing yards in the opener. In last weekend’s 49-17 loss to North Carolina State, it was Ryeshene Bronson’s turn as the freshman receiver collected two catches for 80 yards, including a 75-yard touchdown reception early in the first quarter. Andre Davis, who led South Florida with 49 catches and 735 yards last season, remains questionable after suffering a bruised sternum against Western Carolina.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Under is 7-0 in South Florida's last seven games versus a team with a losing record.

CONSENSUS: Just over 65 percent of wagers are backing South Florida at -2.
 
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UConn has had problems covering in September
Stephen Campbell

The month of September has not been kind to spread bettors backing the University of Connecticut. The Huskies are a paltry 1-6 against the spread in their last seven September games.

Connecticut faces off against South Florida in the Sunshine State Friday, where the Huskies are currently listed as 2-point road dogs with a total of 46.
 
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Connecticut-USF have history of going Under

When Connecticut and South Florida get together for Friday night college football action, there's one particular trend bettors need to pay attention to.

In the last four meetings between the two schools, the Under is a perfect 4-0. USF is currently 2-point home faves with a total of 46.
 
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NCAAF

Underdogs covered last five UConn-South Florida games, with average total in last four 25.8. Bulls won 13-6/13-10 last two years; Huskies lost four of last five visits here, with three losses by 7+ points. UConn lost its two games vs I-A foes this year 35-10/38-21; they were 3-9 as a road underdog under last coach. USF is also 0-2 vs I-A teams, losing by 25-32 points at home; Bulls are 5-21-1 vs spread in last 27 home games. USF lost 49-17 here to NC State last week, ending Wolfpack's 0-11 skid as a road favorite. Conference home favorites are 6-6 vs spread this year.
 
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Young pitcher getting no support from team
Justin Hartling

If it wasn't for the lack of run support, we may be hearing a lot more about Jeremy Hellickson. The Rays have gone 0-7 in righties last seven starts.

Hellickson has only given up an average of 2.6 runs per game while striking out 37 battThe Rays though have provided only three runs per game and have only once tallied more than four runs.
 
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Yankees have had Buehrle's number past two years
Justin Hartling

The New York Yankkes will step into the batters box happy when they see Mark Buehrle on the mound Friday. The Bronx Bombers have gone 7-1 against the Toronto Blue Jays with the 14-year veteran on the bump.

The Yankees have tallied at least six hits in each of those eight starts and have tallied four or more runs five times against Buehrle.
 
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Gallardo has enjoyed his trips to Pittsburgh
Justin Hartling

There has been no stadium quite like PNC Park for Yovani Gallardo. The talented rightie has dominated in Pittsburgh, leading to an over/under record of 1-7 in his last eight starts in the Steel City.

Galardo has allowed seven runs over those eight games, while holding the Pirates to no runs five times. To add to the stunning numbers, Gallardo has notched 51 strikes.
 

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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 19th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_____________________________________


***** Friday, 9/19/14 MLB Information *****

(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_____________________________________________________

MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #25
•A's Out Of Top Wild-Card Spot, Texas Sweeps: The Oakland Athletics are stunned by their September collapse, yet stuck to find a solution. And with the way things are going, manager Bob Melvin can't talk about playoffs, let alone plan for them. Sonny Gray and the A's kept tumbling Thursday, falling out of the top AL wild-card spot with a 7-2 loss to Texas that gave the Rangers a three-game sweep. "It's not very fun. When you're in a race, it's supposed to be fun," left fielder Brandon Moss said. "But I don't see anyone in this clubhouse having any fun, because it's not. We're pretty frustrated. We're disappointed. But it's not over, and we know that.' The latest loss to the team with the worst record in the majors dropped the A's a half-game behind idle Kansas City for the first wild-spot slot.

Oakland owned the best record in the big leagues as recently as Aug. 15. "We're still in the wild card. All that's moot unless we start to play better. We'll find ourselves in no position if we continue to lose," Melvin said. "You've got to fight being beat down based on what has transpired here recently.... It's tough sometimes to get over these things. They're all accountable for what they do. We all are." Texas roughed up Gray for four runs in the first inning and won its season-best sixth in a row. Oakland has lost six of eight. Gray saw his winless stretch reach five starts. The right-hander in his first full major league season has only one victory in 10 starts since his 5-0 July that earned him AL pitcher of the month honors.

"It's these games we need to win and I think everyone knows that. It's tough to play away the last three days," Gray said. "Unfortunately for us, I dug us in a hole a little bit too deep. If you give up four in the first, nine times out of 10 you're not going to overcome that. It's probably easier said than done, but we honestly have got to put this behind us." Nick Martinez allowed two runs and three hits in 5 2-3 innings. Leonys Martin hit an RBI double and the Rangers came out swinging for 15 total hits. Texas got four straight two-out singles in the first, including RBI hits from Jake Smolinski, Tomas Telis and Ryan Rua. A passed ball added another for Texas. Smolinski had four hits, and the Rangers' rookies were 9 for 22.

This series was a far cry from the end of the 2012 season, when the A's stunned the Rangers by sweeping the final three games at the Coliseum to win the AL West. Sam Fuld's RBI triple in the third accounted for Oakland's runs. The A's were outscored 19-6 in an embarrassing sweep and have struggled to support their starting pitchers during this long funk. "I think if anyone had any answers it wouldn't be happening," Gray said. "Today was just ugly, it was bad." The Rangers won again only hours after former manager Ron Washington publicly apologized in Texas, to wife of 42 years, Gerry, for breaking her trust. It was his first public comment since resigning Sept. 5. "These are good teams we're beating but I think we can beat anyone if we continue to play the way we are capable," A's infielder Adam Rosales said. "I think they're pressing right now, trying to do too much. It's got to be tough on them."

•Struggling Vets Lackey, Wacha To Rejoin Cardinals Rotation: Adam Wainwright did what every ace aspires to do in the heat of a pennant race: Summon up his best stuff and command, resulting in a shutout of Milwaukee that kept St. Louis 2 1/2 games ahead of hard-charging Pittsburgh in the National League Central. What Wainwright did Wednesday night is what the Cardinals are still holding out hope that John Lackey and Michael Wacha can provide in their playoff push. Manager Mike Matheny confirmed that both will rejoin the rotation for this weekend's series with visiting Cincinnati. Lackey starts Friday night's series opener and Wacha gets the ball on Saturday evening.

Lackey wasn't happy with having his turn skipped on Tuesday night, but also conceded that he hasn't had his best stuff since joining the team July 31 after being traded by Boston. Lackey has allowed opponents to hit .309 in eight starts and is pitching to a 5.05 earned-run average. Wacha had his turn skipped Sunday when Matheny decided mechanical issues were keeping the young righty from throwing his best fastball. Matheny clearly wants Wacha, who won four postseason games last October, to show enough that he can use him this October. In short, St. Louis' final home series is also a referendum of sorts for Lackey and Wacha in regards to their postseason status. Pitch well and their spots might be assured. Struggle, and their October might be spent in the bullpen instead of on the mound.

•Blue Jays' Stroman Appeals Six-Game Suspension: Toronto right-hander Marcus Stroman was suspended six games and received an undisclosed fine for throwing at Baltimore Orioles catcher Caleb Joseph earlier this week, Joe Garagiola Jr., senior vice president of standards and operations for Major League Baseball, announced. Stroman has appealed the suspension and is scheduled to make his next start Saturday against the New York Yankees. Stroman had not heard about a specific date for an appeal. "It's tough," Stroman said. "It's in the appeal process now. I would never intentionally throw at anyone. I respect the game. I respect the players too much to ever do anything like that. Family, friends, teammates know the type of individual I am." Stroman threw 92 mph fastball that soared just above Joseph's head in the sixth inning of Monday's game.

Stroman said he was in the process of reaching out to Joseph through a friend to explain the issue. "Obviously, I would never throw at someone's head," Stroman said. "It's not in my nature. That's pretty much it. That's not in my game. It's something I would never do. It doesn't make sense to me." Baltimore manager Buck Showalter supported the swift action by MLB. "I have a lot of confidence that when something like that happens and emotions of players get in the way of good decisions that the league office will remind them that certain things aren't tolerated," he said. Stroman is 10-6 with 3.80 ERA in 24 games, including 19 starts. Toronto manager Johns Gibbons was not surprised by decision. He still expected Stroman to make his scheduled start Saturday, but was ready to come up with a backup plan if necessary. "I expected them to do something on it," Gibbons said about the suspension.

Around The League
--Tampa Bay Rays Jeremy Hellickson getting no support from team. If it wasn't for the lack of run support, we may be hearing a lot more about Hellickson. The Rays have gone 0-7 in the righties last seven starts. Hellickson has only given up an average of 2.6 runs per game while striking out 37 batters. The Rays though have provided only three runs per game and have only once tallied more than four runs.

--The New York Yankees will step into the batter’s box happy when they see Mark Buehrle on the mound Friday. Buehrle has struggled mightily against the Yankees, posting a 1-13 mark with a gaudy 6.14 ERA while allowing the club to bat .314 against him. The 35-year-old is 0-3 versus New York this season and yielded four runs in six innings en route to a 6-3 setback in the most recent meeting Aug. 29. Buehrle also gave up four runs in six frames in his last outing to claim a no-decision against Tampa Bay on Sunday.

--Milwaukee Brewers Yovani Gallardo has enjoyed his trips to Pittsburgh. There has been no stadium quite like PNC Park for Gallardo. The talented rightie has dominated in Pittsburgh, leading to an over/under record of 1-7 in his last eight starts in the Steel City. Galardo has allowed seven runs over those eight games, while holding the Pirates to no runs five times. To add to the stunning numbers, Gallardo has notched 51 strikes.

--Former Texas Rangers manager resigned because "I was not true to my wife after 42 years," he said Thursday. Washington spoke publicly for the first time since resigning on Sept. 5. He appeared at a hotel near Irving, Texas, with his wife and spoke for less than four minutes. He did not take any questions. "I'm here today to own that mistake and apologize to her and those I disappointed. "Today, I'm at a very low time in my life," he said. "I'm sorry for breaking the trust that I had with my wife and for disappointing my players, for disappointing my coaches, for disappointing Major League Baseball and for disappointing the Texas Rangers.

"All I ask is for your forgiveness and your understanding." When he finished his statement, Washington put his arm around his wife and left the room. Washington guided the Rangers to back-to-back World Series in 2010 and 2011. He managed the team for nearly eight full seasons, compiling a 664-611 record. The 62-year-old Washington tested positive for cocaine in 2009. He offered to resign, but team president Nolan Ryan rejected the notion and signed Washington to a contract extension in 2012.

--A 91-second commercial for Gatorade featuring Derek Jeter drew raves from fans all over social networking. The ad was filmed near Yankee Stadium in late July and Jeter discussed it before Thursday's game by saying: "It was an opportunity for me I felt as though to thank people which I've been pretty consistent with every time I spoke," Jeter said. "I know what the fans have meant throughout my career. "So it was sort of a way for me to thank them for what they've meant to me. It was a fun experience."

--Oakland RF Josh Reddick was out of the lineup against Texas, one day after taking a hard fall while beating out an infield single in the eighth inning and hurting his left ankle and the right side of his neck. Reddick had an MRI on his ankle. "No breaks as far as the ankle," A's manager Bob Melvin said. "That's what we were worried about." Reddick did not have an MRI of his neck. "The neck's just kind of more like a whiplash thing."

--Oakland catcher John Jaso might not play again this season because of a concussion he suffered on Aug. 24. Jaso is supposed to be examined in Pittsburgh this weekend at which time he will know if there's a chance he will be able to suit up again this year. "My season could be over; I don't know," he told the San Jose Mercury News. "But if I get clearance, then there'd be a chance to may hit some next week."
________________________________________________________

Betting Notes - Friday

National League
•Dodgers-Cubs - 2:20 PM
--Kershaw is 5-0, 1.80 in his last five starts.
--Jackson is 0-3, 10.80 in his last three starts.

--Dodgers won nine of their last thirteen games.
--Cubs won three of their last four games.

--Over is 6-0-1 in last seven Dodger games.

•Brewers-Pirates - 7:05 PM
--Gallardo is 0-3, 7.36 in his last three starts.
--Locke is 1-2, 5.28 in his last three starts.

--Brewers lost ten of their last eleven road games.
--Pirates won seven of their last eight games.

--Seven of last eight Milwaukee games stayed under.

•Nationals-Marlins - 7:10 PM
--Fister is 2-0, 2.07 in his last two starts.
--Koehler is 0-0, 3.48 in his last five starts.

--Nationals won five of their last six games.
--Miami lost six of its last nine games.

--Four of last five Washington games stayed under total.

•Mets-Braves - 7:35 PM
--Wheeler is 1-2, 4.57 in his last four starts.
--Teheran is 0-3, 5.40 in his last three starts; Braves scored two runs in the three games.

--Mets lost four of their last five games.
--Atlanta lost five of its last six games.

--Over is 5-1-1 in Mets' last seven games.

•Diamondbacks-Rockies - 8:10 PM
--Anderson is 2-1, 2.65 in his last three starts.
--Lyles is 0-2, 4.81 in his last four starts.

--Arizona lost eight of its last eleven games.
--Colorado won last three games, scoring 33 runs.

--Five of last six Colorado games went over total.

•Reds-Cardinals - 8:15 PM
--Holmberg is 1-1, 9.53 in three starts this season.
--Lackey is 0-1, 8.16 in his last three starts.

--Reds lost their last four games, scoring three runs.
--Cardinals won five of their last six games.

--Six of last eight Cincinnati games stayed under.

•Giants-Padres - 10:10 PM
--Hudson is 0-2, 11.25 in his last three starts.
--Despaigne is 0-4, 6.55 in his last six starts.

--Giants lost six of their last nine games.
--San Diego won three of their last four games.

--Six of last seven San Diego games went over total.
_______________________________________

MLB Top Of The Ticket Key Play
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American League
•Blue Jays-Yankees - 7:05 PM
--Buehrle is 1-1, 3.33 in his last four starts.
--Kuroda is 3-1, 2.92 in his last six starts.

--Toronto lost six of its last seven games.
--Yankees won its last three home games.

--Six of last eight Buehrle starts went over the total.

•Red Sox-Orioles - 7:05 PM
--Webster is 1-2, 8.24 in his last four starts.
--Gausman is 0-0, 1.29 in his last couple starts.

--Red Sox lost last three games, outscored 16-3.
--Baltimore won its last four games, allowing seven runs.

--Under is 6-1 in last seven Baltimore games.

•White Sox-Rays - 7:10 PM
--Quintana is 2-0, 1.80 in his last three starts.
--Hellickson is 0-1, 5.33 in his last five starts.

--White Sox lost three of their last four games.
--Tampa Bay won three of its last four games.

--Over is 6-3-1 in last ten Tampa Bay games.

•Indians-Twins - 8:10 PM
--Bauer is 0-1, 4.82 in his last three starts.
--Hughes is 1-2, 4.55 in his last four starts.

--Indians won their last three games, allowing three runs.
--Minnesota won three of its last four games.

--Last four Cleveland games stayed under the total.

•Tigers-Royals - 8:10 PM
--Verlander is 1-1, 6.52 in his last three starts.
--Vargas is 1-4, 4.91 in his last five starts.

--Detroit won seven of last ten games, but lost last two.
--Royals are 0-5 in game following their last five wins.

--Over is 4-0-1 in last five Kansas City games.

•Mariners-Astros - 8:10 PM
--Walker is 1-2, 4.32 in his last five starts.
--Peacock is 1-0, 2.08 in his last four starts.

--Seattle lost seven of its last eleven games.
--Astros lost five of their last seven games.

--Under is 10-2-1 in last thirteen Seattle games.

•Rangers-Angels - 10:05 PM
--Bonilla allowed two runs in six IP in winning his first MLB start.
--Santiago is 2-1, 3.12 in his last seven starts.

--Texas won its last six games, allowing 12 runs.
--Angels won 11 of their last 14 games.

--Last four Texas games went over the total.

Interleague
•Phillies-Athletics - 9:35 PM
--Buchanan is 0-0, 3.62 in his last five starts.
--Lester is 2-1, 1.64 in his last three starts.

--Phillies lost four of their last five games.
--Oakland lost six of its last eight games.

--Six of last eight Oakland games stayed under the total.

•Incredible Stat of the Day
Los Angeles Dodgers Clayton Kershaw is 19-3 in his team starts against the money line (86.3%) in road games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) since 1997. The Left-hander has also been spectacular during the past three seasons recording a 20-3 record in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs per game on the season.

Continuing his quest for his third NL Cy Young Award in four years, Kershaw fortified his resume by limiting San Francisco to two runs over eight frames in Sunday’s 4-2 victory – the seventh straight turn he has lasted that long. The outing also marked the first time during his five-start winning streak that the four-time All-Star has allowed more than one earned run. Kershaw, who is 10-1 with a 1.64 ERA in 12 road starts, hasn’t faced the Cubs this season but is only 3-2 despite a 1.60 ERA in five all-time outings against Chicago.

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Inside The Huddle – Friday


#305 CONNECTICUT @ #306 S FLORIDA
TV: 8:00 PM EST, ESPN
Line: S Florida -1.5, Total: 47

Very little went right for South Florida in its first season under then-rookie coach Willie Taggart, with one of the few exceptions being how it played at the start of its conference schedule. The Bulls on Friday look to win their American Athletic Conference opener for the second straight season when they host Connecticut. South Florida went 2-10 in 2013 – the worst campaign in its 17-year football history – but managed to defeat Cincinnati and the Huskies to begin league play last October.

The Bulls did not score an offensive touchdown in either victory and have only tallied one in each of their last two losses since freshman Marlon Mack rushed for four by himself in a season-opening win over Western Carolina. Connecticut also secured its only victory against an FCS foe in Stony Brook, although it was able to frustrate undefeated Brigham Young in its opener and played Boise State tight through three-plus quarters last Saturday. The Huskies and Bulls have met every year since 2005 and each of the former Big East rivals’ last seven meetings has been decided by seven points or fewer.

•ABOUT CONNECTICUT (1-2): First-year coach Bob Diaco was pleased with his defense despite giving up 38 points last week as it held Boise State 245 yards below its season average in total offense and limited Broncos’ running back Jay Ajayi 113 yards under his season rushing average. "The defense, playing basically the same system they played in week one, looked nothing like it looked in week one. I'm proud of the way that they played today," Diaco said. Chandler Whitmer became the eighth player in program history to surpass 4,000 passing yards after throwing for a season-high 209 last week.

•ABOUT SOUTH FLORIDA (1-2): The Bulls have played eight freshmen this season and two have already left a mark on the offensive end, including Mack’s AAC-record 275 yards rushing yards in the opener. In last weekend’s 49-17 loss to North Carolina State, it was Ryeshene Bronson’s turn as the freshman receiver collected two catches for 80 yards, including a 75-yard touchdown reception early in the first quarter. Andre Davis, who led South Florida with 49 catches and 735 yards last season, remains questionable after suffering a bruised sternum against Western Carolina.

•PREGAME NOTES: South Florida’s victory at Connecticut last year marked only the second time in eleven all-time meetings that the home team did not win.... Huskies WR Geremy Davis, who became the seventh player in school history to eclipse 2,000 career receiving yards last week, has a reception in 29 straight contests – tied for the 12th-longest streak in FBS.... The Bulls are tied for second in FBS with 10 takeaways, collecting at least one fumble and interception in every game.... USF is 0-8 versus the spread as a favorite over the last three seasons, including 0-6 ATS as a home favorite.... The Huskies are 2-11 against the spread in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.

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•KEY STATS
--CONNECTICUT is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) versus poor passing teams averaging 5.75 or less passing yards/att. since 1992.
The average score was CONNECTICUT 26.0, OPPONENT 19.2.

--CONNECTICUT is 15-5 UNDER (+9.5 Units) as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992.
The average score was CONNECTICUT 17.3, OPPONENT 23.6.

--CONNECTICUT is 1-9 against the 1rst half line (-8.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CONNECTICUT 8.1, OPPONENT 20.3.

--CONNECTICUT is 13-3 OVER (+9.7 Units) the 1rst half total when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CONNECTICUT 11.4, OPPONENT 15.0.

--CONNECTICUT is 13-2 UNDER (+10.8 Units) the 1rst half total after allowing 37 points or more last game since 1992.
The average score was CONNECTICUT 7.3, OPPONENT 16.1.

--S FLORIDA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was S FLORIDA 16.4, OPPONENT 30.8.

--S FLORIDA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half since 1992.
The average score was S FLORIDA 29.3, OPPONENT 18.9.

--S FLORIDA is 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was S FLORIDA 15.7, OPPONENT 25.1.

--S FLORIDA is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was S FLORIDA 15.9, OPPONENT 21.8.

--S FLORIDA is 31-14 UNDER (+15.5 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
The average score was S FLORIDA 21.9, OPPONENT 23.5.

--S FLORIDA is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was S FLORIDA 10.3, OPPONENT 26.2.

--S FLORIDA is 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) after allowing 37 points or more last game since 1992.
The average score was S FLORIDA 23.5, OPPONENT 18.4.

--S FLORIDA is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) after allowing 42 points or more last game since 1992.
The average score was S FLORIDA 22.5, OPPONENT 18.8.

--S FLORIDA is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was S FLORIDA 16.7, OPPONENT 20.2.

--S FLORIDA is 13-0 against the 1rst half line (+13.0 Units) against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse since 1992.
The average score was S FLORIDA 18.0, OPPONENT 5.7.

--S FLORIDA is 9-1 against the 1rst half line (+7.9 Units) versus poor offensive teams - averaging <=4.5 yards/play since 1992.
The average score was S FLORIDA 14.9, OPPONENT 7.3.

--S FLORIDA is 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) the 1rst half total against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was S FLORIDA 6.9, OPPONENT 10.3.

--S FLORIDA is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was S FLORIDA 2.7, OPPONENT 11.8.

•COACHING TRENDS
--WILLIE TAGGART is 26-10 ATS (+14.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was TAGGART 22.6, OPPONENT 27.2.

--WILLIE TAGGART is 19-5 ATS (+13.4 Units) after playing a game at home in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was TAGGART 20.4, OPPONENT 27.8.

--WILLIE TAGGART is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in home games in the first half of the season as the coach of S FLORIDA.
The average score was S FLORIDA 12.4, OPPONENT 22.0.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CONNECTICUT is 5-4 against the spread versus S FLORIDA since 1992.
--S FLORIDA is 6-5 straight up against CONNECTICUT since 1992.
--7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992.

--S FLORIDA is 5-5 versus the first half line when playing against CONNECTICUT since 1992.
--8 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.

--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
--Underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.


•RECENT TRENDS
--CONN is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--CONN is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
--Under is 5-1 in CONN last 6 Friday games.

--USF is 5-21-1 ATS in their last 27 home games.
--USF is 3-12-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
--Under is 7-0 in USF last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:

--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 31 times, while the favorite covered the spread 29 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 36 times, while the underdog won straight up 26 times. 44 games went under the total, while 21 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.

--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 30 times, while the favorite covered first half line 29 times. *No EDGE. 43 games went under first half total, while 23 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (CONNECTICUT) - with a good rushing defense - allowing 125 or less rushing yards/game, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game.
(52-20 since 1992.) (72.2%, +30.6 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 46.2
The average score in these games was: Team 21, Opponent 18.4 (Total points scored = 39.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 31 (44.9% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-4).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (30-12).
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