[h=1]How Vegas experts view TB-ATL[/h][h=3]Line analysis and ATS picks from handicappers on Thursday night's game[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Evan Abrams[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
Will the real [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Matt Ryan[/FONT] please stand up? In Week 1, Ryan threw for a career-high 448 passing yards, with three touchdowns and no interceptions. In Week 2, he threw for 231 yards, with no touchdowns and three interceptions. Only once before in Ryan's career did he have a game in which he produced a [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Total QBR[/FONT] of above 90 and followed it up with a game with a QBR below 30 (2011).
One of the Atlanta Falcons' biggest issues thus far this season has been their inability to pressure the opposing QB. Through two games, they have no sacks, and have allowed back-to-back 300-yard passing performances to Drew Brees and Andy Dalton. Luckily for Atlanta, Josh McCown and theTampa Bay Buccaneers' No. 31-ranked passing attack are on the docket.
Ryan has played on "Thursday Night Football" four times in his career, with a record of 3-1 straight up and 4-0 against the spread. In Ryan's past 10 prime-time games dating back to 2011, he has totaled 17 touchdowns and three interceptions. However, Atlanta has lost its past four prime-time games SU dating back to the start of the 2013 season.
According to ESPN Insider's PickCenter, the public is currently backing the Falcons at a whopping clip of 76 percent, with the line of Atlanta minus-6.5.
Let's get some analysis of the line from Jay Kornegay of the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, and a pick on the game from our panel of four Vegas handicappers:
Total: Opened at 44.5; now 44.5
</center>Jay Kornegay says: "We opened the Falcons at minus-5.5 on Sunday afternoon, and that lasted just over an hour before the market moved the number to minus-6. By the time we opened Monday, the line moved another half-point to minus-6.5. This was a surprise, since we thought the opening number was siding on the high side, and there would be more support for Tampa Bay. We finally saw some money come that way Tuesday morning and the line dropped to minus-6, but that didn't last long either, as more money came in on Atlanta and we're back to minus-6.5.<offer> I think we're going to see this same pattern all the way to kickoff. Obviously, there are many different opinions on this game.</offer>
"We opened the total at 44.5 on Tuesday, and that hasn't moved."
Pick: Under 44.5.
ATS pick: Bucs plus-6.5.
Pick: Over 44.5.
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Evan Abrams[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
Will the real [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Matt Ryan[/FONT] please stand up? In Week 1, Ryan threw for a career-high 448 passing yards, with three touchdowns and no interceptions. In Week 2, he threw for 231 yards, with no touchdowns and three interceptions. Only once before in Ryan's career did he have a game in which he produced a [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Total QBR[/FONT] of above 90 and followed it up with a game with a QBR below 30 (2011).
One of the Atlanta Falcons' biggest issues thus far this season has been their inability to pressure the opposing QB. Through two games, they have no sacks, and have allowed back-to-back 300-yard passing performances to Drew Brees and Andy Dalton. Luckily for Atlanta, Josh McCown and theTampa Bay Buccaneers' No. 31-ranked passing attack are on the docket.
Ryan has played on "Thursday Night Football" four times in his career, with a record of 3-1 straight up and 4-0 against the spread. In Ryan's past 10 prime-time games dating back to 2011, he has totaled 17 touchdowns and three interceptions. However, Atlanta has lost its past four prime-time games SU dating back to the start of the 2013 season.
According to ESPN Insider's PickCenter, the public is currently backing the Falcons at a whopping clip of 76 percent, with the line of Atlanta minus-6.5.
Let's get some analysis of the line from Jay Kornegay of the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, and a pick on the game from our panel of four Vegas handicappers:
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">[h=3]Matchup: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons[/h]Spread: Opened Atlanta minus-5.5; now Atlanta minus-6.5Total: Opened at 44.5; now 44.5
</center>Jay Kornegay says: "We opened the Falcons at minus-5.5 on Sunday afternoon, and that lasted just over an hour before the market moved the number to minus-6. By the time we opened Monday, the line moved another half-point to minus-6.5. This was a surprise, since we thought the opening number was siding on the high side, and there would be more support for Tampa Bay. We finally saw some money come that way Tuesday morning and the line dropped to minus-6, but that didn't last long either, as more money came in on Atlanta and we're back to minus-6.5.<offer> I think we're going to see this same pattern all the way to kickoff. Obviously, there are many different opinions on this game.</offer>
"We opened the total at 44.5 on Tuesday, and that hasn't moved."
[h=3]ATS picks[/h]Dave Tuley says: "The point spread looks just about right in this matchup, and I'd call it a coin flip, so I'll look to the over/under instead. Atlanta was shut down at Cincinnati last week, and the Falcons should fare better returning home, but I don't expect to see a shootout like they had in the opener against New Orleans. The Bucs' defense is better than the Saints', and I'm expecting them to hold the Falcons in the low 20s. On the other side of the ball, Tampa has one of the weakest offenses in the league (ranked 28th, at just 298 yards per game) and I don't expect McCown & Co. to turn into a juggernaut overnight. There are reasons (solid defense, weak offense) that the Bucs have gone under in both their games so far, and I don't see any reason why that should change."Pick: Under 44.5.
Wunderdog says: "The Bucs were projected to be a better team this season, but at 0-2 questions obviously remain. I think they will be better than last season when all is said and done, but their poor start makes this an important game, especially considering that they will play their next three on the road. Atlanta was projected to be a better team this season as well, as injuries really hurt them a year ago. The Falcons had a strong passing attack in their opener, but three turnovers did them in at Cincinnati last week, where they mustered all of 10 points. Moreover, no team in the league has allowed more yards than Atlanta. Injuries seem to be haunting the Falcons' receiving corps once again, as Roddy White missed practice and his availability for Sunday is in doubt. Buccaneers WR Vincent Jackson had his way against this Falcons defense a year ago, grabbing a combined 20 catches for 303 yards in the two contests. Both of these teams are flawed, but the team with the greater need for a win is Tampa Bay, and I would expect the Bucs' top effort. They should at the very least keep it close. Take the points."ATS pick: Bucs plus-6.5.
Erin Rynning says: "The Tampa Bay offense will catch a break in Week 3 in that the Bucs won't be facing the athletic front seven of the Carolina Panthers or St. Louis Rams. The Bucs' troubles on offense have been magnified, and they'll relish an opportunity to play downhill for the first time this season against a bad defense. On the other side, the Falcons will clearly be trying to outscore teams week to week. Their game this past week included nearly 800 total yards combined between the two sides, though the Falcons managed only 10 points. The Buccaneers' defensive line is decimated by injuries, which will ease the pressure on the Falcons' offensive line. I'll side with the value on the over."Pick: Over 44.5.
