[h=1]Early Week 4 NFL line moves[/h][h=3]Analyzing Week 4 line moves, plus biggest Week 3 NFL gambling takeaways[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Dave Tuley[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- For all the NFL's recent off-the-field woes, the on-the-field product once again showed Sunday why pro football is America's favorite sport to watch (and wager on).
There were some blowouts in the early games (Bengals over Titans, Colts over Jaguars, Giants over Texans and, to a lesser extent, Saints over Vikings), but we also had come-from-behind victories by the Cowboys, who were consensus 2-point faves over the Rams and won 34-31, and the Ravens, who were minus-1.5 over the Browns and won 23-21 on a field goal as time expired.
San Diego's 22-10 win at Buffalo was the only outright upset in the early games, but the Eagles and Patriots both had scares in non-covering victories.
The Seahawks squandered a 17-3 lead in the fourth quarter against the Broncos, but they ended up covering as a closing 4.5-point favorite with a touchdown on the opening drive of overtime. The rest of the afternoon and evening games were all outright upsets as the Cardinals topped the 49ers 23-14 as 3-point home 'dogs, the Chiefs routed the Dolphins 34-15 as 5.5-point road 'dogs, and the Steelers beat the Panthers 37-19 as 3-point road 'dogs in the night game.
But the focus of this column is to see how the action affects the lines for the upcoming week's games, so let's take a look at some early opening-line moves for Week 4 and some other gambling takeaways from Week 3 that we can use moving forward.
[h=4]Week 4 openers[/h](Home team on bottom)
Giants
Redskins -5 (-4.5)
Dolphins -3.5 (-4)
Raiders
Packers
Bears PK
Bills
Texans -3.5
Titans
Colts -6.5
Panthers
Ravens -3, EVEN
Lions -1.5
Jets
Buccaneers
Steelers -8
Jaguars
Chargers -11.5 (-12.5)
Eagles
49ers -4
Falcons -2.5 (-3)
Vikings
Saints -3.5
Cowboys
Patriots -3.5
Chiefs
Note: Number in parentheses is what the line was bet to by the start of the Sunday night game (when the lines for the Steelers' and Panthers' next games were taken off the board)
Thursday: Giants at Redskins (-5): The advance line on this game last Tuesday at the Westgate was Redskins minus-3.5, but they raised it to 5 even though the Giants won and the Redskins lost. It was quickly bet down<offer> to 4.5, just as it was at the Greek offshore book that opened Redskins minus-6.5. By the end of Sunday night, it was still 4.5 at the Westgate but down to 4 at all offshore books. That looks like where the line will settle.</offer>
Dolphins (-3.5) at Raiders: This advance line was Dolphins minus-7 but was chopped in half off the Raiders' gutty performance at New England while the Dolphins lost as a home favorite to the Chiefs. It was bet back up to 4, and that looked like a solid line everywhere later Sunday night.
Packers at Bears (pick 'em): The advance line was Packers minus-3, but their 19-7 loss at Detroit was enough to drop this to pick 'em. Offshore books and CG Technology (formerly Cantor Gaming) here in Vegas had the Bears minus-1, but we'll also see what happens to the line based on Chicago's Monday night game at the Jets.
Bills at Texans (-3.5): This was dropped from the advance line of Texans minus-5, so Houston's loss to the N.Y. Giants was viewed as worse than Buffalo's loss to San Diego. It looks like 3.5 is the number, though some books have gone to 3 (minus-120), so it could waver between those two numbers all week.
Titans at Colts (-6.5): This was bet to 7 and then back down to 6.5 at the Westgate and we could see that again all week, just like in these two teams' games (Titans-Bengals and Colts-Jaguars) in Week 3.
Panthers at Ravens (-3, even): This was the same line as the Westgate advance line from last Tuesday after Baltimore pulled out a narrow win over Cleveland. It was taken down when the Carolina-Pittsburgh kicked off Sunday night, so we'll see where it goes when it re-opens Monday morning (likely 3 minus-110 or even 3.5 with the Panthers losing to a team the Ravens recently dominated).
Lions (-1.5) at Jets: The Westgate opened this with Lions as a 1.5-point road favorite while the Greek offshore book had Jets minus-1.5. Other books split the difference at pick 'em, so it'll be interesting to see which direction the public bets it.
Buccaneers at Steelers (-8): This was Pittsburgh minus-6.5 in the Westgate advance line and raised to 8 on Sunday due to Tampa's ugly 56-14 loss at Atlanta on Thursday. It was taken off the board before Pittsburgh's Sunday night game and will likely only go higher off their impressive performance.
Jaguars at Chargers (-11.5): The Westgate adjusted last week's advance line of Chargers minus-9.5 to minus-11.5 after Sunday's games, but every other book opened between 13 and 14.5 and the line was quickly bet to 12.5 at Westgate. The 5Dimes offshore book has gone as high as 15.5, but it looks like this will settle at 13.5 or 14 .
Eagles at 49ers (-4): The advance line was 49ers minus-4.5 at Westgate and was adjusted downward after San Fran lost at Arizona. The Wynn opened at 4.5, but most books had settled at 4 by the end of Sunday night.
Falcons (-2.5) at Vikings: Minnesota was actually a 1.5-point favorite in the Westgate advance line, but Atlanta's rout of Tampa Bay on Thursday and the Vikings' loss at New Orleans caused a change in favorite. By late Sunday night, almost all books were at a solid Falcons minus-3.
Saints (-3.5) at Cowboys: The Westgate went with its advance line of Saints minus-3.5 while offshore books went with minus-2.5, and predictably all books met in the middle at Saints minus-3.
Monday: Patriots (-3.5) at Chiefs: This was New England minus-6.5 in the advance line, but after the Patriots' non-covering win over the Raiders and the Chiefs' upset of the Dolphins, this was reposted at 3.5. The Wynn opted for 4.5, but most books went with Patriots minus-4, and it looks like that's where the line will settle.
Do you want to win a bar bet? Tell someone you bet that they can't name the three NFL teams that are 0-3 against the spread in the accompanying chart (without letting them look at it, of course). I don't think it'll be too hard for most people to guess the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Jacksonville Jaguars, but it'll take someone that's really sharp and in tune with betting lines to name the third 0-3 ATS team: the Denver Broncos.
Now, to make sure you don't have to settle a dispute on a technicality, maybe phrase it "Name the only four teams that have played three games and haven't covered any of them?" That would include the Green Packers at 0-2-1 ATS, though the push includes last week's 31-24 win over the Jets when the line closed a consensus minus-7 here in Vegas, but earlier Packer backers laid more than 7.
As for the undefeated teams against the spread, after the Panthers' loss on Sunday night, the only teams left at 3-0 ATS are the Cincinnati Bengals and San Diego Chargers.
We discuss this every week, but bettors keep talking about how you can't bet unders in today's NFL because of all the rules changes that have helped offenses; however, we keep seeing plenty of unders (though overs are slightly ahead 8-7 this week heading into Monday night). The highest total this weekend was the Packers-Lions over/under 52, and everyone I heard talking about it said that over was the only way to bet (I think I even made the mistake of saying something similar on one of the shows I did last week). Final score: Lions 19-7, and one TD was by the Detroit defense plus a safety. The second-highest total of 50 in the Redskins-Eagles game lived up to the hype with a 37-34 Philly victory, but the next two highest totals (49.5 in the Vikings-Saints game and 47 in the Raiders-Patriots game) fell short by more than 20 points in each case.
Oakland's Derek Carr has gotten the most work among this year's class of rookie quarterbacks (with Johnny Manziel getting the most work at wide receiver -- wasn't that a brilliant trick play that was wasted as it was negated by a penalty?), but Jacksonville's Blake Bortles and Minnesota's Teddy Bridgewater were holding clipboards so far this season but were thrown into action Sunday and might be the starters from here on out. Handicappers will be spending a lot of time on NFL Rewind this week to see if those teams are better with the rookies in there than journeymen starters they're replacing. Personally, I think the answer is "yes" for the Jaguars with Bortles, while Bridgewater might need more seasoning to do better than the serviceable Matt Cassel.
Happy handicapping this week.
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By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Dave Tuley[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- For all the NFL's recent off-the-field woes, the on-the-field product once again showed Sunday why pro football is America's favorite sport to watch (and wager on).
There were some blowouts in the early games (Bengals over Titans, Colts over Jaguars, Giants over Texans and, to a lesser extent, Saints over Vikings), but we also had come-from-behind victories by the Cowboys, who were consensus 2-point faves over the Rams and won 34-31, and the Ravens, who were minus-1.5 over the Browns and won 23-21 on a field goal as time expired.
San Diego's 22-10 win at Buffalo was the only outright upset in the early games, but the Eagles and Patriots both had scares in non-covering victories.
The Seahawks squandered a 17-3 lead in the fourth quarter against the Broncos, but they ended up covering as a closing 4.5-point favorite with a touchdown on the opening drive of overtime. The rest of the afternoon and evening games were all outright upsets as the Cardinals topped the 49ers 23-14 as 3-point home 'dogs, the Chiefs routed the Dolphins 34-15 as 5.5-point road 'dogs, and the Steelers beat the Panthers 37-19 as 3-point road 'dogs in the night game.
But the focus of this column is to see how the action affects the lines for the upcoming week's games, so let's take a look at some early opening-line moves for Week 4 and some other gambling takeaways from Week 3 that we can use moving forward.
[h=3]Off-the-board report[/h]The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posts its NFL openers at 4:30 p.m. PT each Sunday. This is the section where we will note which games are off the board due to injuries (note: the SuperBook usually posts the games involving the teams involved in Sunday and Monday night games, while most books hold off on those). Again, this week there are no such games, as the Westgate put up all 16 games. The adjustments appear to have already been made with the teams expected to go with new starting QBs (Tampa Bay, Jacksonville and Minnesota).
[h=3]Early Week 4 line moves[/h]Here are the openers from the Westgate SuperBook. We'll look at how we got to those numbers, including a look at the advance lines for Week 3 that they put up last Tuesday as well as where the offshore openers might have differed and how they moved in early betting Sunday afternoon. While the biggest part of winning at football is picking winners, it's just as important to be able to read the market and know when to place your wagers to get the best number, so we'll try to point out which numbers are most likely to move during the week.[h=4]Week 4 openers[/h](Home team on bottom)
Giants
Redskins -5 (-4.5)
Dolphins -3.5 (-4)
Raiders
Packers
Bears PK
Bills
Texans -3.5
Titans
Colts -6.5
Panthers
Ravens -3, EVEN
Lions -1.5
Jets
Buccaneers
Steelers -8
Jaguars
Chargers -11.5 (-12.5)
Eagles
49ers -4
Falcons -2.5 (-3)
Vikings
Saints -3.5
Cowboys
Patriots -3.5
Chiefs
Note: Number in parentheses is what the line was bet to by the start of the Sunday night game (when the lines for the Steelers' and Panthers' next games were taken off the board)
Thursday: Giants at Redskins (-5): The advance line on this game last Tuesday at the Westgate was Redskins minus-3.5, but they raised it to 5 even though the Giants won and the Redskins lost. It was quickly bet down<offer> to 4.5, just as it was at the Greek offshore book that opened Redskins minus-6.5. By the end of Sunday night, it was still 4.5 at the Westgate but down to 4 at all offshore books. That looks like where the line will settle.</offer>
Dolphins (-3.5) at Raiders: This advance line was Dolphins minus-7 but was chopped in half off the Raiders' gutty performance at New England while the Dolphins lost as a home favorite to the Chiefs. It was bet back up to 4, and that looked like a solid line everywhere later Sunday night.
Packers at Bears (pick 'em): The advance line was Packers minus-3, but their 19-7 loss at Detroit was enough to drop this to pick 'em. Offshore books and CG Technology (formerly Cantor Gaming) here in Vegas had the Bears minus-1, but we'll also see what happens to the line based on Chicago's Monday night game at the Jets.
Bills at Texans (-3.5): This was dropped from the advance line of Texans minus-5, so Houston's loss to the N.Y. Giants was viewed as worse than Buffalo's loss to San Diego. It looks like 3.5 is the number, though some books have gone to 3 (minus-120), so it could waver between those two numbers all week.
Titans at Colts (-6.5): This was bet to 7 and then back down to 6.5 at the Westgate and we could see that again all week, just like in these two teams' games (Titans-Bengals and Colts-Jaguars) in Week 3.
Panthers at Ravens (-3, even): This was the same line as the Westgate advance line from last Tuesday after Baltimore pulled out a narrow win over Cleveland. It was taken down when the Carolina-Pittsburgh kicked off Sunday night, so we'll see where it goes when it re-opens Monday morning (likely 3 minus-110 or even 3.5 with the Panthers losing to a team the Ravens recently dominated).
Lions (-1.5) at Jets: The Westgate opened this with Lions as a 1.5-point road favorite while the Greek offshore book had Jets minus-1.5. Other books split the difference at pick 'em, so it'll be interesting to see which direction the public bets it.
Buccaneers at Steelers (-8): This was Pittsburgh minus-6.5 in the Westgate advance line and raised to 8 on Sunday due to Tampa's ugly 56-14 loss at Atlanta on Thursday. It was taken off the board before Pittsburgh's Sunday night game and will likely only go higher off their impressive performance.
Jaguars at Chargers (-11.5): The Westgate adjusted last week's advance line of Chargers minus-9.5 to minus-11.5 after Sunday's games, but every other book opened between 13 and 14.5 and the line was quickly bet to 12.5 at Westgate. The 5Dimes offshore book has gone as high as 15.5, but it looks like this will settle at 13.5 or 14 .
Eagles at 49ers (-4): The advance line was 49ers minus-4.5 at Westgate and was adjusted downward after San Fran lost at Arizona. The Wynn opened at 4.5, but most books had settled at 4 by the end of Sunday night.
Falcons (-2.5) at Vikings: Minnesota was actually a 1.5-point favorite in the Westgate advance line, but Atlanta's rout of Tampa Bay on Thursday and the Vikings' loss at New Orleans caused a change in favorite. By late Sunday night, almost all books were at a solid Falcons minus-3.
Saints (-3.5) at Cowboys: The Westgate went with its advance line of Saints minus-3.5 while offshore books went with minus-2.5, and predictably all books met in the middle at Saints minus-3.
Monday: Patriots (-3.5) at Chiefs: This was New England minus-6.5 in the advance line, but after the Patriots' non-covering win over the Raiders and the Chiefs' upset of the Dolphins, this was reposted at 3.5. The Wynn opted for 4.5, but most books went with Patriots minus-4, and it looks like that's where the line will settle.
[h=3]Tuley's Takeaways from Week 3[/h]Who's hot and who's notDo you want to win a bar bet? Tell someone you bet that they can't name the three NFL teams that are 0-3 against the spread in the accompanying chart (without letting them look at it, of course). I don't think it'll be too hard for most people to guess the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Jacksonville Jaguars, but it'll take someone that's really sharp and in tune with betting lines to name the third 0-3 ATS team: the Denver Broncos.
Now, to make sure you don't have to settle a dispute on a technicality, maybe phrase it "Name the only four teams that have played three games and haven't covered any of them?" That would include the Green Packers at 0-2-1 ATS, though the push includes last week's 31-24 win over the Jets when the line closed a consensus minus-7 here in Vegas, but earlier Packer backers laid more than 7.
As for the undefeated teams against the spread, after the Panthers' loss on Sunday night, the only teams left at 3-0 ATS are the Cincinnati Bengals and San Diego Chargers.
Over/under talkWe discuss this every week, but bettors keep talking about how you can't bet unders in today's NFL because of all the rules changes that have helped offenses; however, we keep seeing plenty of unders (though overs are slightly ahead 8-7 this week heading into Monday night). The highest total this weekend was the Packers-Lions over/under 52, and everyone I heard talking about it said that over was the only way to bet (I think I even made the mistake of saying something similar on one of the shows I did last week). Final score: Lions 19-7, and one TD was by the Detroit defense plus a safety. The second-highest total of 50 in the Redskins-Eagles game lived up to the hype with a 37-34 Philly victory, but the next two highest totals (49.5 in the Vikings-Saints game and 47 in the Raiders-Patriots game) fell short by more than 20 points in each case.
Study those rookie quarterbacksOakland's Derek Carr has gotten the most work among this year's class of rookie quarterbacks (with Johnny Manziel getting the most work at wide receiver -- wasn't that a brilliant trick play that was wasted as it was negated by a penalty?), but Jacksonville's Blake Bortles and Minnesota's Teddy Bridgewater were holding clipboards so far this season but were thrown into action Sunday and might be the starters from here on out. Handicappers will be spending a lot of time on NFL Rewind this week to see if those teams are better with the rookies in there than journeymen starters they're replacing. Personally, I think the answer is "yes" for the Jaguars with Bortles, while Bridgewater might need more seasoning to do better than the serviceable Matt Cassel.
Happy handicapping this week.
[h=4]2014 NFL ATS Standings[/h]| Team | ATS | Streak | O/U | Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtesy ViewFromVegas.com. All records based on VFV consensus closing lines. Teams listed by ATS winning percentage, with first tiebreaker being straight-up record then ATS streak. O=over, U=under, P=push |
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