[h=1]Finding underdog value in Week 4[/h][h=3]Why there is tremendous value on teams that have started slowly[/h]By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]PJ Walsh[/FONT] | Sports Insights
ESPN INSIDER
Three weeks of the 2014 season are in the books and the perceptions of NFL teams are starting to shift from preseason expectations to early results from the current season. With actual performances to reference, fans, analysts and bettors are comfortable making blanket statements regarding good and bad teams, even though we're only three games into a 16-game marathon.
As contrarian bettors, we can take advantage of these shifting perceptions by continuing to pinpoint overreactions, both good and bad, by either playing on "bad teams" or betting against "good" ones. Using this philosophy, I turned to our Bet Labs analysis software to create a system with a 61.1 percent ATS win rate over the past nine seasons that has three plays in Week 4.
When attempting to unearth contrarian value, sometimes the simplest systems provide the best results. The first strategy I tested for Week 4 <offer>was the idea of betting against teams who start a season 0-3 straight-up. With the quick application of Bet Labs' "team win percent" filter, I determined that NFL teams winless through Week 3 have performed well in Week 4, posting a 22-14 (61.1 percent) ATS record since 2005.</offer>
[h=4]Teams with 0-3 SU records[/h]*Since 2005
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Note: For the purposes of the analysis above, I removed duplicate matches from our system results. For example, if two 0-3 teams play each other in Week 4, that result is not included in our system record since it will always produce a 1-1 ATS record. In essence, removing duplicates allows us to isolate how 0-3 teams perform in Week 4 when playing opponents with at least one victory.
Not only will openers likely offer value, but one-sided betting action can push these point spreads even further, providing better numbers for those willing to buy-back the underdogs in these matchups.
The least surprising storyline so far this season is that the Raiders are winless through their first three games. The masses expected Oakland to be bad and they've done nothing to change this perception. Meanwhile, Miami has lost two straight games and has considered benching struggling starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill for backup Matt Moore. Interestingly, at the time of publication, 61 percent of spread bettors have taken Oakland, but Miami will likely receive more backing from the betting market as soon as there's clarity regarding its quarterback situation. No matter who is under center for the Dolphins on Sunday, we like the Raiders as underdogs in this game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
I have to admit, this will likely be one of the most difficult plays to make all season, but that's exactly why it's offering value. The combination of Tampa Bay getting absolutely destroyed in front of a national audience on Thursday night and Pittsburgh dominating previously undefeated Carolina in prime time creates the perfect storm of contrarian betting.
Bettors see the winless Bucs coming off an embarrassing loss matched up with the Steelers, who were firing on all cylinders Sunday night, and can't lay the points with Pittsburgh fast enough. The Steelers are currently receiving 73 percent of spread bets and I expect that lopsided percentage to remain steady throughout the week. Although it's an admittedly ugly play, we still like the value with the Buccaneers, especially getting off the key number of 7.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+13.5) at San Diego Chargers
San Diego avoided a letdown following its impressive Week 2 win against Seattle by traveling cross country and handling Buffalo, 22-10.
Conversely, Jacksonville got smoked by Indianapolis last week, motivating the coaching staff to remove Blake Bortles' redshirt and name him the starting quarterback for Week 4. I like what I've seen from Bortles throughout the preseason and in limited action last week, and think the Jaguars can keep this game within two touchdowns.
ESPN INSIDER
Three weeks of the 2014 season are in the books and the perceptions of NFL teams are starting to shift from preseason expectations to early results from the current season. With actual performances to reference, fans, analysts and bettors are comfortable making blanket statements regarding good and bad teams, even though we're only three games into a 16-game marathon.
As contrarian bettors, we can take advantage of these shifting perceptions by continuing to pinpoint overreactions, both good and bad, by either playing on "bad teams" or betting against "good" ones. Using this philosophy, I turned to our Bet Labs analysis software to create a system with a 61.1 percent ATS win rate over the past nine seasons that has three plays in Week 4.
When attempting to unearth contrarian value, sometimes the simplest systems provide the best results. The first strategy I tested for Week 4 <offer>was the idea of betting against teams who start a season 0-3 straight-up. With the quick application of Bet Labs' "team win percent" filter, I determined that NFL teams winless through Week 3 have performed well in Week 4, posting a 22-14 (61.1 percent) ATS record since 2005.</offer>
[h=4]Teams with 0-3 SU records[/h]*Since 2005
| ATS Record | Units Won | ROI | |
|---|---|---|---|
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine ATS records, units won and ROI above. ** Units Won is the amount of money a betting system has won or lost after factoring in the vig. In the example above, a $100 bettor would have won $662 ($100 x 6.62 units) following the system. *** To calculate ROI, the return of an investment (or in this case, the profit earned from a sports betting system) is divided by the cost of the investment. | |||
| Week 4 | 22-14 (61.1%) | +6.62 units | +18.4% |
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Note: For the purposes of the analysis above, I removed duplicate matches from our system results. For example, if two 0-3 teams play each other in Week 4, that result is not included in our system record since it will always produce a 1-1 ATS record. In essence, removing duplicates allows us to isolate how 0-3 teams perform in Week 4 when playing opponents with at least one victory.
[h=3]Why does this work?[/h]Bettors who have watched winless teams struggle through three straight games will want no part of them in Week 4. In fairness, it's difficult to bet on teams in the hopes of simply avoiding a train wreck, especially when these teams are capable of losing big. However, oddsmakers anticipate that most bettors will avoid winless teams and shade lines to account for the flood of public money that will inevitably hit the market to fade (bet against) them.Not only will openers likely offer value, but one-sided betting action can push these point spreads even further, providing better numbers for those willing to buy-back the underdogs in these matchups.
[h=3]Week 4 system matches[/h]Oakland Raiders (+4) vs. Miami Dolphins (in London)The least surprising storyline so far this season is that the Raiders are winless through their first three games. The masses expected Oakland to be bad and they've done nothing to change this perception. Meanwhile, Miami has lost two straight games and has considered benching struggling starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill for backup Matt Moore. Interestingly, at the time of publication, 61 percent of spread bettors have taken Oakland, but Miami will likely receive more backing from the betting market as soon as there's clarity regarding its quarterback situation. No matter who is under center for the Dolphins on Sunday, we like the Raiders as underdogs in this game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
I have to admit, this will likely be one of the most difficult plays to make all season, but that's exactly why it's offering value. The combination of Tampa Bay getting absolutely destroyed in front of a national audience on Thursday night and Pittsburgh dominating previously undefeated Carolina in prime time creates the perfect storm of contrarian betting.
Bettors see the winless Bucs coming off an embarrassing loss matched up with the Steelers, who were firing on all cylinders Sunday night, and can't lay the points with Pittsburgh fast enough. The Steelers are currently receiving 73 percent of spread bets and I expect that lopsided percentage to remain steady throughout the week. Although it's an admittedly ugly play, we still like the value with the Buccaneers, especially getting off the key number of 7.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+13.5) at San Diego Chargers
San Diego avoided a letdown following its impressive Week 2 win against Seattle by traveling cross country and handling Buffalo, 22-10.
Conversely, Jacksonville got smoked by Indianapolis last week, motivating the coaching staff to remove Blake Bortles' redshirt and name him the starting quarterback for Week 4. I like what I've seen from Bortles throughout the preseason and in limited action last week, and think the Jaguars can keep this game within two touchdowns.
