UFC 178 Odds - Saturday September 27th

5dimes

I'm not gonna lie, I've lost track of UFC a bit and don't recognize many of these names.

You UFC bettors see anything that stands out for this weekend?

kennedy has decent value

thats an awful looking card...they should lower the cost of the PPV when they have lousy cards like this, i mean seriously how many people are gonna step up and actually buy this thing at like 54.95

the last year of ufc cards have been awful, this sport is beginning to suck

I never watched Bellator but Alvarez was all the rage there wasn't he?

Seems like UFC would've liked his chances vs Cerrone to give him that fight as his 1st UFC fight. They wanna build him up....

HuskerFan1 said:

thats an awful looking card...they should lower the cost of the PPV when they have lousy cards like this, i mean seriously how many people are gonna step up and actually buy this thing at like 54.95

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It is a good card other than the weak main event. UFC beefed up the undercards when the orig main event was cancelled. Worthy of paying for PPV? Probably not. But I watch it for free in CR on cable.

You guys joking? That's one of the better cards I've seen all year. Full of entertaining fighters. I'd highly recommend buying this one.

Hell, the undercard (free) portion has Dominick Cruz finally returning from a 3-year layoff due to injury. Guy hasn't lost in years and was the champ for a long time.

Masvidal always brings fireworks.

Thompson might be the best pure striker in the sport and Cote rarely is in boring fights and has heavy hands himself.

Ebersole is always exciting and John Howard hits like a brick.

These are all undercard fights... I'm not even getting into the main card stuff too even though it's loaded. The main event is weak but Alvarez/Cerrone and Poirer/McGregor are about the most exciting matchups you could make right now.

As far as betting goes, I'm taking Poirier at around 5/2 and Cote at 3/1.

McGregor is a great striker and has long limbs but Poirier is both of those things as well with a more advanced ground game. Poirier leaves himself open for shots and gets rocked every fight which scares me against a guy like Connor but ultimately this is an even fight because of the ground aspect. McGregor leaves himself wide open for punches at times and Poirier hits hard.

"Wonderboy" Thompson is a great striker but he hasn't transitioned it into MMA yet. A non-wrestler like Matt Brown controlled him for 3 rounds on the ground. Cote wrestle-fucked his last opponent even though he's known for his granite chin and heavy hands. If Cote strikes with this guy we still have a chance but most likely he can use that chin to take some shots to get takedowns. His ground game isn't high level by any means but he has years of experience in the submission wrestling world that Thompson simply does not.

Those are my favorites.

Basically this card has a ton of tough guys that like to knock people out. Not many guys that wrestler to decisions. This might be the best card of the year IMO.

should be the best card the last 15 have sucked, this sport is ruined with a card a week, fight nights and TUF cards suck the hind tit

fade2win said:

should be the best card the last 15 have sucked, this sport is ruined with a card a week, fight nights and TUF cards suck the hind tit

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That definitely has hurt it.

Also insurance for every fighter has taken a toll. In the past guys weren't going to get paid if they didn't fight but now with health insurance they can afford to take a few extra months off without it hurting their bottom line. More guys pulling out of fights this year than ever before.

I agree with Jake, fantastic card. Also like Cote at 3 to 1.

I don't see McGregor losing

This card is awesome, including the non televised prelims.

i train with Wonderboy some (black belt in kickboxing from him). His wrestling has highly improved since the Brown matchup. Keep in mind, he the only guy Brown didn't finish in his major run until his last match with Lawler. Chris Weidman has also been here the last few weeks with us here for camp. Wonderboy also went there like normal to prepare Chris for his last matchup with. Machida. Lets not forget Wonderboy is twice as fast as Cote, and if he catches him, it's lights out quicklike. Cote will definitely try to take this to the ground, but I think he gets caught going for the TD coming in, or is unsuccessful in keeping Thompson there.

I see see small value in James Krause and Dustin Porier.

This card may not be stacked with bigger names or your favorite fighters, but this is an awesome card from top to bottom.

I don't know if Cote will win but 3 to 1 odds seems like a lot.

I also can't stand the guy but Brian Ebersole might be a good dog too. Fights so awkwardly and been in a ton of fights

I think 3 to 1 is a lot too (actually 4 to 1 now).

i was more concerned with folks calling this card trash. This card is awesome and will be action packed.

[h=1]How to bet UFC 178[/h][h=3]McGregor a safe bet? Is Kennedy worth some underdog money?[/h]
By Reed Kuhn | ESPN Insider

Despite shuffling title fights in the ongoing UFC injury carousel of the past two pay-per-view events, the fight card presented at UFC 178 will be one of the most stacked of the year from top to bottom. The entire main card is composed of ranked fighters, plus several more in the preliminaries. One title is on the line, and several likely future contenders will be scattered throughout.
The card features the debut of former Bellator champ Eddie Alvarez, and the return of former UFC champion Dominick Cruz. Every bout on the main card -- and even a few beyond it -- will affect the rankings going forward and solidify the title pictures is several divisions. But how do these fighters match up against the betting lines?
Given that Alvarez lacks any historical data, we won't be discussing that fight, although we'll look at a bout further down the card. But before we get to those matchup stats, let's take a look at the total effectiveness for the fighters at UFC 178, which reflects the high overall skill level of the competitors this Saturday.
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<cite style="margin: 0px 0px 4px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; display: block; color: rgb(171, 171, 171); background: transparent;">Reed Kuhn</cite>
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">[h=3]No. 10 Yoel Romero (minus-145) vs. No. 6 Tim Kennedy (plus-125)[/h]</center>
The lower-ranked Romero started out as a slight underdog, but has since become the favorite over former Strikeforce title challenger Kennedy. Both middleweights are on impressive win streaks, but are also running out of time to earn a UFC title shot.

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The striking metrics favor Romero in accuracy and power, but his chin resiliency at age 37 is in question. That's only if these guys choose to stand and trade. Considering the grappling credentials at play here, it would not be surprising to see these two test each other on the mat. Despite Romero's Olympic medal in wrestling, it's Kennedy who has implemented his wrestling skills inside a cage more effectively. Kennedy his better ground stats across the board, and should be the one more interested in going to the ground. If he succeeds, expect Kennedy to work submissions and advance position to set up a finish.
Insider recommends: If Kennedy works his game plan, he is more than capable of the upset as long as he doesn't eat too many punches on the way in. If he remains the underdog, there's definitely value in a straight-up play. The same goes for the under play (at plus money) that the fight lasts less than 2.5 rounds. Kennedy's submission game combined with Romero's powerful strikes all make for increased finishing potential.
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</center><center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">[h=3]No. 9 Conor McGregor (minus-265) vs. No. 5 Dustin Poirier (plus-225)[/h]</center>
This might be the "people's main event" of the evening, and it will certainly have the most associated drama and vitriol in every step leading up to the fight.

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For fans, it's also a barn burner in the making. These two featherweights are among the fastest-paced strikers on the entire card, combining for more than 30 strike attempts per minute while standing. And they should be willing to stand and trade leather. Despite being the same size and both southpaws (a "clockwise matchup" due to the counter-clockwise spin), McGregor has better knockdown power and better defense, so expect him to get the better of the exchanges while standing.
On the mat, it's a different story. Although McGregor's stats are good, there just isn't a lot of historical data to rely on. Poirier has better submission credentials, and his best path to an upset is to get out of harm's way on his feet, and test McGregor's submission defense. Poirier has slick transitions and a diverse arsenal of submissions that can come at any time. Unfortunately, his takedown success rate is below average, and McGregor has been successful to date keeping fights standing.
Insider recommends: The numbers support McGregor as a favorite, but let's not get too crazy with that line. If the steam continues to push the line upward, the value in the favorite, even in parlays, will be lost. The under of 1.5 rounds is also too tight to be reliable. The better play is that the fight does not go the distance at minus-190. If you play McGregor straight up or in parlays, consider a hedge prop on Poirier by submission, which should be in the plus-700 range.
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On paper, the performance metrics between these two aren't that far apart.

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Yet currently, flyweight champion Johnson is on pace to be the biggest favorite in title fight history if these lines hold. They usually don't, as playing massive favorites is ill-advised and offers so little return. The discrepancy here is the strength of schedule that strongly favors the champion. Mighty Mouse is now the third-longest active reigning champion in the UFC, and the only man to ever hold the UFC's flyweight belt. Unofficially, he's also one of the fastest fighters we've ever seen in the Octagon.
Stylistically, the high pace Cariaso sets by moving forward aggressively against opponents could work against him. Johnson's striking defense is very good, and he's been showing he can put enough power into his counters to get the knockout. Johnson is also excellent at mixing in his wrestling to win rounds, boasting an abnormally high takedown success rate that will come in handy should Cariaso press the pace while standing.
Insider recommends: The favorite should win, but the odds are too steep to provide value. Plus money on the under of 4.5 rounds allows for the fight to develop, and for Mighty Mouse to wear down the challenger for an eventual finish. Fights with such steep odds see more finishes than usual, so the under might be the only playable angle when the market already has jumped all over the likely winner. There's also the small probability of an upset submission from Cariaso, which plays into the under. But for that to happen, he'll have to pull off what many other higher-ranked opponents were unable to do.
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</center>[h=3]Closing lines[/h]
With a title fight featuring potentially record-breaking odds, there are two more matchups on the main card that are nearly even, a rarity for UFC matchups that usually see one fighter favored at more than 2-1. That means before we even get to the main event, there will be some compelling action that helps clear up the contenders' waiting list in multiple weight classes. After some disappointing injury adjustments in recent events, UFC 178 is stacked with talent, and hopefully loaded with action.
In money line odds presented here, favorites are negative values; e.g., a money line of minus-300 for a favorite means you must risk 300 units to win 100. Underdogs are positive values; e.g., a money line of plus-250 means you win 250 units by risking just 100. Prop bets follow the same rules. The analysis offered here does not include unit-based bet recommendations. Raw data is provided by FightMetric, with analysis by Reed Kuhn, author of "Fightnomics: the Hidden Numbers and Science in Mixed Martial Arts."