[h=1]Which teams can stay undefeated?[/h][h=3]Projecting the toughest, easiest roads remaining for nation's unbeaten teams[/h]
By Brian Fremeau | ESPN Insider
Major upsets have shaken up the polls throughout the first month of the season, but the most likely contenders for the College Football Playoff have held their ground. The Florida State Seminoles, Alabama Crimson Tide, Oklahoma Sooners and Oregon Ducks remain unbeaten and are the consensus top four teams heading into Week 5.
In all, there are 25 undefeated teams left, a group that has combined to dominate weak opponents, escape near-upset bids and record signature wins along the way. But, of course, this group will continue to shrink. There are 35 regular-season matchups left to be played between currently undefeated teams, including two head-to-head battles this week: UCLA plays at Arizona State on Thursday night, while Florida State plays at NC State on Saturday.
So which teams have the easiest and toughest roads to 12-0? Our full-season schedule strength ratings tell part of the story, but some teams already have passed their biggest tests, while others have major challenges on the horizon.
What do all of them have in common? No team currently projects to have a better than 50 percent chance of remaining undefeated. We break down the five toughest and five easiest schedules to watch.
Utah Utes
No. 2 remaining strength of schedule (SOS), No. 5 overall SOS
0.5 percent likelihood to go undefeated
The Utes didn't allow a red zone trip or an offensive touchdown in their win over Michigan last weekend, and they lead the nation in fewest points allowed per non-garbage drive (0.4) through the first four weeks of the year. Defensive efficiency will keep them competitive in the Pac-12, but a particularly nasty stretch starting in late October (USC, Arizona State, Oregon, Stanford and Arizona in a five-week stretch) will present too many obstacles to an undefeated campaign.
Auburn Tigers
No. 3 remaining SOS, No. 2 overall SOS
4.3 percent likelihood to go undefeated
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Auburn passed its last nonconference test at Kansas State last Thursday and gets a breather this week before the SEC gauntlet kicks into full gear against LSU on Oct. 4. The last seven FBS opponents on the Tigers' schedule are ranked 17th or better in the latest AP poll. The Tigers' strong start has moved them to the top of the SEC in our drive efficiency ratings, but with all of those power programs clumped together in the West, not a single one is likely to survive unscathed.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
No. 4 remaining SOS, No. 9 overall SOS
0.1 percent likelihood to go undefeated
Notre Dame is off to a strong start but hasn't faced a formidable challenge to date. Michigan slid all the way to No. 51 in our latest rankings, and the Irish won't face their first top-40 opponent until Stanford comes to South Bend on Oct. 4. Two weeks later, Notre Dame plays Florida State in Tallahassee. The Irish defense ranks No. 1 in points per value drive, allowing opponents to score only 2.1 points per drive that crosses the Irish 30-yard line.
Arizona Wildcats
No. 5 remaining SOS, No. 12 overall SOS
0.0 percent likelihood to go undefeated
Arizona reeled off 36 points in the fourth quarter and connected on a 47-yard touchdown pass on the game's final play to edge Cal last weekend. The Wildcats' next two Pac-12 games -- at Oregon on Oct. 2 and USC on Oct. 11 -- project to be too challenging for the dream season to continue. Our model gives Arizona a 2 percent chance of winning both of those games, and it projects to be the underdog in three other games down the stretch.
Texas A&M Aggies
No. 7 remaining SOS, No. 6 overall SOS
4.0 percent likelihood to go undefeated
The Aggies are off to a scorching start offensively, leading the nation in points per non-garbage drive (4.8) and earning 75.2 percent of available yards measured from starting field position to end zone. Like Auburn, the Aggies have an onslaught of SEC West challengers ahead, including tough opposition in each of the next four weeks. Our model gives the Aggies a 56 percent chance of going at least 3-1 against Arkansas, Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Alabama.
Marshall Thundering Herd
No. 119 remaining SOS, No. 127 overall SOS
45.5 percent likelihood to go undefeated
An undefeated season against one of the weakest schedules in recent memory isn't likely to sway the selection committee into rewarding Marshall with a playoff spot. But until the committee's priorities are revealed, all the Thundering Herd can do is play the opponents in front of them and dominate as often as possible. Marshall ranks No. 5 nationally in our overall raw game efficiency measure and No. 4 in net points per drive. Their overall undefeated likelihood isn't over 50 percent yet, but they do have win likelihoods over 80 percent in each remaining regular-season matchup.
BYU Cougars
No. 87 remaining SOS, No. 101 overall SOS
23.0 percent likelihood to go undefeated
The Cougars still have road trips to Central Florida, Boise State and Cal on the schedule, and though they project to be the favorite in each of those games, there is only a 31 percent chance they'll win all three. As an independent, BYU won't qualify for the Group of 5 spot in one of the New Year's bowls, but they are the highest-ranked, non-Power 5 team currently and an undefeated campaign shouldn't be ignored.
Cincinnati Bearcats
No. 65 remaining SOS, No. 80 overall SOS
0.6 percent likelihood to go undefeated
The Bearcats are most likely to fall off the list of undefeated teams this weekend when they visit Ohio State (13.5 percent chance of winning in our projections). If they do pull off the upset, a trip to Miami and a home game against East Carolina are big obstacles as well. Cincinnati will be vulnerable in all three games because of a defense that ranks No. 90 in points per drive allowed (2.6) and ranks No. 101 in forcing three and outs.
Penn State Nittany Lions
No. 60 remaining SOS, No. 70 overall SOS
1.3 percent likelihood to go undefeated
Easy may not be the right word for an upcoming schedule that includes games against Ohio State and Michigan State, but the Nittany Lions get both of those Big Ten East opponents in Happy Valley, and the rest of the conference slate no longer looks as challenging as it did earlier in the year. Penn State's defense is forcing three and outs on 53.5 percent of opponent drives (No. 5 nationally) and allowing only 1.8 yards per rush (No. 1), two ways they'll keep themselves in every game the rest of the season.
Duke Blue Devils
No. 58 remaining SOS, No. 73 overall SOS
0.4 percent likelihood to go undefeated
Duke has faced one of the lightest schedules in the country, and there are no regular-season behemoths in their path the rest of the way. Instead, Duke projects to have six more games that fall into the 30-to-70 percent win likelihood range. Those games tend to be decided by a single score, and the Blue Devils can help themselves by continuing to thrive at managing field position. In its first three FBS games, Duke started its offensive possessions an average of 12.8 yards further downfield than its opponents.
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By Brian Fremeau | ESPN Insider
Major upsets have shaken up the polls throughout the first month of the season, but the most likely contenders for the College Football Playoff have held their ground. The Florida State Seminoles, Alabama Crimson Tide, Oklahoma Sooners and Oregon Ducks remain unbeaten and are the consensus top four teams heading into Week 5.
In all, there are 25 undefeated teams left, a group that has combined to dominate weak opponents, escape near-upset bids and record signature wins along the way. But, of course, this group will continue to shrink. There are 35 regular-season matchups left to be played between currently undefeated teams, including two head-to-head battles this week: UCLA plays at Arizona State on Thursday night, while Florida State plays at NC State on Saturday.
So which teams have the easiest and toughest roads to 12-0? Our full-season schedule strength ratings tell part of the story, but some teams already have passed their biggest tests, while others have major challenges on the horizon.
What do all of them have in common? No team currently projects to have a better than 50 percent chance of remaining undefeated. We break down the five toughest and five easiest schedules to watch.
[h=3]Toughest remaining schedules for undefeated teams[/h]Utah Utes
0.5 percent likelihood to go undefeated
The Utes didn't allow a red zone trip or an offensive touchdown in their win over Michigan last weekend, and they lead the nation in fewest points allowed per non-garbage drive (0.4) through the first four weeks of the year. Defensive efficiency will keep them competitive in the Pac-12, but a particularly nasty stretch starting in late October (USC, Arizona State, Oregon, Stanford and Arizona in a five-week stretch) will present too many obstacles to an undefeated campaign.
Auburn Tigers
4.3 percent likelihood to go undefeated
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Auburn passed its last nonconference test at Kansas State last Thursday and gets a breather this week before the SEC gauntlet kicks into full gear against LSU on Oct. 4. The last seven FBS opponents on the Tigers' schedule are ranked 17th or better in the latest AP poll. The Tigers' strong start has moved them to the top of the SEC in our drive efficiency ratings, but with all of those power programs clumped together in the West, not a single one is likely to survive unscathed.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
0.1 percent likelihood to go undefeated
Notre Dame is off to a strong start but hasn't faced a formidable challenge to date. Michigan slid all the way to No. 51 in our latest rankings, and the Irish won't face their first top-40 opponent until Stanford comes to South Bend on Oct. 4. Two weeks later, Notre Dame plays Florida State in Tallahassee. The Irish defense ranks No. 1 in points per value drive, allowing opponents to score only 2.1 points per drive that crosses the Irish 30-yard line.
Arizona Wildcats
0.0 percent likelihood to go undefeated
Arizona reeled off 36 points in the fourth quarter and connected on a 47-yard touchdown pass on the game's final play to edge Cal last weekend. The Wildcats' next two Pac-12 games -- at Oregon on Oct. 2 and USC on Oct. 11 -- project to be too challenging for the dream season to continue. Our model gives Arizona a 2 percent chance of winning both of those games, and it projects to be the underdog in three other games down the stretch.
Texas A&M Aggies
4.0 percent likelihood to go undefeated
The Aggies are off to a scorching start offensively, leading the nation in points per non-garbage drive (4.8) and earning 75.2 percent of available yards measured from starting field position to end zone. Like Auburn, the Aggies have an onslaught of SEC West challengers ahead, including tough opposition in each of the next four weeks. Our model gives the Aggies a 56 percent chance of going at least 3-1 against Arkansas, Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Alabama.
[h=3]Easiest remaining schedules for undefeated teams[/h]Marshall Thundering Herd
45.5 percent likelihood to go undefeated
An undefeated season against one of the weakest schedules in recent memory isn't likely to sway the selection committee into rewarding Marshall with a playoff spot. But until the committee's priorities are revealed, all the Thundering Herd can do is play the opponents in front of them and dominate as often as possible. Marshall ranks No. 5 nationally in our overall raw game efficiency measure and No. 4 in net points per drive. Their overall undefeated likelihood isn't over 50 percent yet, but they do have win likelihoods over 80 percent in each remaining regular-season matchup.
BYU Cougars
23.0 percent likelihood to go undefeated
The Cougars still have road trips to Central Florida, Boise State and Cal on the schedule, and though they project to be the favorite in each of those games, there is only a 31 percent chance they'll win all three. As an independent, BYU won't qualify for the Group of 5 spot in one of the New Year's bowls, but they are the highest-ranked, non-Power 5 team currently and an undefeated campaign shouldn't be ignored.
Cincinnati Bearcats
0.6 percent likelihood to go undefeated
The Bearcats are most likely to fall off the list of undefeated teams this weekend when they visit Ohio State (13.5 percent chance of winning in our projections). If they do pull off the upset, a trip to Miami and a home game against East Carolina are big obstacles as well. Cincinnati will be vulnerable in all three games because of a defense that ranks No. 90 in points per drive allowed (2.6) and ranks No. 101 in forcing three and outs.
Penn State Nittany Lions
1.3 percent likelihood to go undefeated
Easy may not be the right word for an upcoming schedule that includes games against Ohio State and Michigan State, but the Nittany Lions get both of those Big Ten East opponents in Happy Valley, and the rest of the conference slate no longer looks as challenging as it did earlier in the year. Penn State's defense is forcing three and outs on 53.5 percent of opponent drives (No. 5 nationally) and allowing only 1.8 yards per rush (No. 1), two ways they'll keep themselves in every game the rest of the season.
Duke Blue Devils
0.4 percent likelihood to go undefeated
Duke has faced one of the lightest schedules in the country, and there are no regular-season behemoths in their path the rest of the way. Instead, Duke projects to have six more games that fall into the 30-to-70 percent win likelihood range. Those games tend to be decided by a single score, and the Blue Devils can help themselves by continuing to thrive at managing field position. In its first three FBS games, Duke started its offensive possessions an average of 12.8 yards further downfield than its opponents.
[h=4]Full list of undefeated teams and schedule difficulty that remains[/h]| Team | SOS rank (remaining) | SOS rank (overall) | Likelihood of undefeated season |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utah | 2 | 5 | 0.5% |
| Auburn | 3 | 2 | 4.3% |
| Notre Dame | 4 | 9 | 0.1% |
| Arizona | 5 | 12 | 0.0% |
| Texas A&M | 7 | 6 | 4.0% |
| Oregon State | 8 | 17 | 0.1% |
| Arizona State | 10 | 20 | 0.2% |
| Ole Miss | 12 | 21 | 0.7% |
| Washington | 13 | 26 | 0.0% |
| UCLA | 16 | 16 | 1.3% |
| Alabama | 17 | 24 | 3.4% |
| Mississippi State | 26 | 18 | 1.1% |
| Oregon | 29 | 33 | 18.2% |
| NC State | 33 | 45 | 0.0% |
| Baylor | 39 | 52 | 1.3% |
| TCU | 41 | 54 | 0.2% |
| Georgia Tech | 49 | 49 | 0.6% |
| Nebraska | 53 | 64 | 2.9% |
| Oklahoma | 54 | 59 | 13.2% |
| Florida State | 57 | 50 | 41.8% |
| Duke | 58 | 73 | 0.4% |
| Penn State | 60 | 70 | 1.3% |
| Cincinnati | 65 | 80 | 0.6% |
| BYU | 87 | 101 | 23.0% |
| Marshall | 119 | 127 | 45.5% |
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