Week 6 and more

russ1945 · Sep 28, 2014

Well it is the end of Sept and I have begun updating my spread sheet for the first time this season. This has a lot to do with my average ranking system which adds a given teams avg off scoring ranking with their def scoring avg and divide it by 2 to get the average. I also compare the current seasons avg ranking to the prior year’s avg ranking for the purpose of identifying the most improved teams and also those teams whose avg have dropped the most.

Teams who have improved their avg ranking over their 2013 avg ranking beginning with the most improved team: Temple, TCU, Kentucky, Arkansas, California, Air Force, Utah,Virginia, Utah, Texas A&M, UAB, W. Michigan, FIU, Pitt, Maryland, Nebraska, Miss State, Memphis, Nevada, Ole Miss.

Teams whose avg ranking has dropped the most compared to 2013 again beginning with the team that has dropped the most: B Green, Vandy, La Laf, Utah St, Troy, Tulane, UCF, Florida St, Fresno St, FAU, Ball St, Rice, So Cal, UNLV, SMU, Cinn, Clemson, Okla St, Boise St, Kent St, N Carolina.

Here are the leading teams in the pt differential category:
Baylor (+43), TCU (+37.7), Texas A&M (+36.2), Ole Miss (+30.5), Marshall (+29.2), LSU (+28.4), Oklahoma (+28.3), Oregon (+27.2), Nebraska (+26.4), Georgia So (+26.3), Auburn (+26), Alabama (+25.7), Miss St (+24.8), Wisconsin (+24.5), Notre Dame (+23.5),Duke (+23.2), Ohio St (+22.8), Utah (+22.2), Louisville (+20.4)

Teams who have not lost ATS so far this season: East Carolina (4-0), Geo So (5-0), Memphis (3-0-1), Ole Miss (3-0-1)m TCU (3-0), Virginia (5-0)

Teams who have not yet won ATS so far this season: Conn (0-5), Florida St (0-4), Kent St (0-4), New Mexico (0-4), N. Carolina (0-4), SMU (0-4), Utah St (0-4)

Finally going back to my off season thread. Teams who have fallen out of the AP preseason top 25 are: S. Carolina, Clemson, Arizona St, N. Carolina, and Washington. Combined these teams YTD are 7-15 ATS (32%)

Teams who were not in the AP preseason top 25 and replaced those who have fallen are: Miss St, BYU, Oklahoma St, E. Carolina, and TCU. Combined these teams YTD are 14-5 ATS (74%)

BOL

russ1945 · Sep 28, 2014

I do have one comment having to do with the AP top 25 poll. I believe it is losing credibility by hanging on to Florida St who was dubbed to repeat this season. If you look at last season the Seminoles ranked #1 in my average rankings at 1.5 (the lower the better). This season their average ranking is 49.5. In 2013 their average margin of victory was 39.5 ppg. So far in 2014 their average margin victory is 13 ppg. Seriously, why are they still ranked #1. Using Steele as a reference last year Florida St played the #69 toughest schedule and this year is facing the #46 toughest schedule. Notre Dame is facing the #1 toughest schedule, UCLA #11,Texas A&M #12, Okla St #13, Stanford #16, USC #17, Ole Miss #20, Missouri #31, LSU #33, Georgia #35, Ohio St #37, TCU #30, Kansas St #44, Oregon #48, Oklahoma #49, Mich State #50, Nebraska #51, Miss St #56, Baylor #57, Alabama #61 all of which are tougher schedules than Florida St played in 2013.

This really makes me wonder about how the final 4 will be picked for the initial year for the playoff system. The toughness of schedule can be adjusted when the regular season is completed because some of these teams opponents were better or worse than anticipated coming into the 2014 season. However, as it stands I don't think I stand alone about Florida St not being #1 which should go to the best team in the country. I am not going to take the discussion much further other than to say at this point several teams should be ranked above Florida St and 13 other teams in the current TOP 25 are undefeated most of whom have played tougher schedules year to date.

8ate · Sep 28, 2014

You have to knock out the champion; to become the champion...in Heavyweight Boxing.

russ1945 · Sep 28, 2014

8ate said:
You have to knock out the champion; to become the champion...in Heavyweight Boxing.

In college football it is very different, arbitrary to say the least. I see controversy on down the road involving the playoffs. Florida St's performances this year are no where near what they did last year. Remember there is such a thing as a TKO lol

russ1945 · Sep 28, 2014

The following teams had week 5 off:

Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas St, Ball St, BYU, E. Carolina, E. Mich, Florida, Georgia St, Georgia Tech, Hawaii, Houston, La Laf, Marshall, Miss St, N. Texas, N. Illinois, Oklahoma, Oregon, UCF, Utah St, W. Virginia

The following teams are off on week 6:

Arkansas, BC, Conn, Duke, Iowa, Minn, Mizzou, Penn St, Temple, Troy, Tulane, Washington, Wyoming –On Week 7 Arkansas plays Alabama , Mizzou plays Georgia, Oregon plays UCLA

russ1945 · Sep 28, 2014

It is not too difficult to see why some of the following teams are doing so well this year.

Check out how these teams are doing this year in the offensive scoring category best last year:

Michigan St – 2013 (#64 – 29.4 ppg) 2014 ( #3 – 50.3 ppg)

Oklahoma – 2103 (#40 – 32.8 ppg) 2014 (#9 – 44.8 ppg)

TCU – 2013 (#87 – 25.1 ppg) – 2014 (#10 – 44.7 ppg)

Arkansas – 2013 (#105 – 20.7 ppg) – 2104 (#11 – 44.6 ppg)

Miss State – 2013 (#70 – 27.7 ppg) – 2014 (#21 – 41.3 ppg)

Ole Miss – 2013 (#57 – 30 ppg) – 2014 (#29 – 39 ppg)

It is also worth pointing out a few other things regarding offensive scoring:

Florida St (2013 #2 – 51.6 ppg) – 2014 (#34 – 38.3 ppg)

East Carolina appears to be under the radar but in 2013 (#8 – 40.2 ppg) and 2014 (#13 – 43.3 ppg)

Alabama pre-Kiffin (#17 – 38.2 ppg) – with Kiffin (#16 – 42 ppg)

russ1945 · Sep 28, 2014

Comments on week 5:

Wisconsin was tied with USF at the end of the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] Qtr at 3 to 3. It was 71-10 at the 6:05 mark of the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] Qtr

Florida St trailed NC St 7-24 at the end of the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] Qtr

Syracuse had 429 total yards against N Dame

Ole Miss only beat Memphis 24-7 but Memphis on had 104 total yards

Tenn QB Worley missed a little of the game with an injury. His replacement went 4-9 for 20 yards until his return as they lost to Georgia by 3 (Oklahoma beat Tenn 34-10 by comparison)

Cincinnati scored on TD passes of 83 and 78 yards. (Is Ohio St susceptible to the long ball?)

Mizzou beat S. Carolina but converted on only 2 of 16 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] downs.

russ1945 · Sep 28, 2014

As you can see I do my own research. My stuff is on here long before the newsletters are out. I am basically done for now. If anyone wants my opinion or my breakdown on a matchup just let me know. BOL

russ1945 · Sep 28, 2014

Probably should touch this base also.

In my offseason thread I said that at least 8 teams would fall from the preseason top 25. 5 have already fallen. Based on my average rankings system the most likely 3 to fall are as follows:

So Cal – The already have one loss (could have lost to Stanford also) and still hava ply at Ariz, at Wash, at Wash St, Cal, at UCLA and wind up against N Dame.

UCLA – looked good last week, struggled against Texas and still have to play UCLA, Oregon, Ariz, at Washington, So Cal, and wind up against Stanford.

You probably wonder why I am so anti-Florida St but consider that they are nothing like what they were last year and still have to play Notre Dame Louisville, Virginia, Mia Fl, BC (knocked off So Cal) and wind up against Florida. Sure they could win them all but every remaining opponent could make their season by knocking them off.

Mizzou has already lost one game and still has to play Georgia, at Florida, Kentucky, at Texas A&M, at Tenn, and Arkansas.

In my opinion Marshall should wind up in the final Top 25, Clemson might climb back in also. The other possible replacements are up in the air but E. Carolina and N. Illinois are possibilities.

CoachCB · Sep 28, 2014

Good stuff Russ.

I'm very impressed w/ Arkansas and Tennessee. They put up great efforts in losing.

This is make or break week for Will Muschamp. They lose in Knoxville and he's done. They'll give him a few more weeks to dig his own grave (by losing a few more)...but the Tenn game is his make or break moment (I personally think this ship has already set sail, he's done). If he sticks w/ Driskel he's a dead man walking. Driskel is a retard and the light won't ever come on for him. He'd make a nice wildcat QB, but that's about it.

russ1945 · Sep 28, 2014

CoachCB said:
Good stuff Russ.

I'm very impressed w/ Arkansas and Tennessee. They put up great efforts in losing.

This is make or break week for Will Muschamp. They lose in Knoxville and he's done. They'll give him a few more weeks to dig his own grave (by losing a few more)...but the Tenn game is his make or break moment (I personally think this ship has already set sail, he's done). If he sticks w/ Driskel he's a dead man walking. Driskel is a retard and the light won't ever come on for him. He'd make a nice wildcat QB, but that's about it.

Still say they should have hired Tebow as a QB coach. They put way too much faith in hiring a new OC. They need someone who can inspire the players to a higher level. That is Tebow's strength.

WinOne · Sep 28, 2014

CoachCB said:
Good stuff Russ.

I'm very impressed w/ Arkansas and Tennessee. They put up great efforts in losing.

This is make or break week for Will Muschamp. They lose in Knoxville and he's done. They'll give him a few more weeks to dig his own grave (by losing a few more)...but the Tenn game is his make or break moment (I personally think this ship has already set sail, he's done). If he sticks w/ Driskel he's a dead man walking. Driskel is a retard and the light won't ever come on for him. He'd make a nice wildcat QB, but that's about it.

Ditto on Tennessee. I had them this week. I think So Carolina and UGa are the two biggest frauds in the SEC. I still stand by my Mizzou to repeat comments from preseason. In the case of S Carolina and UGa, the QB and Defense are going to hold them back. I don't think Gurley will run over Mizzou, which means QB Mason will have to beat them. That's if Gurley is even healthy by that game. I think Florida may be in trouble this week at Tenn. I know Worley came back in the game, but I want to see how he responds this week. I think they give the gators fits.

Secretly in Austin there are some that are "hoping" that UF does them a favor and comes after HC Strong when/if they get rid of Muschamp. Got that from a buddy this afternoon while playing golf. Not sure if that's widespread but coming from him, he's heard it from his dad or one of his dad's buddies.

BARSTOOLDUMMY · Sep 28, 2014

Very nice read Russ. I also agree with your assessment of Florida St. I'm not sure that TEAM is as focused as they should be. Thanks for all the info.

sdf · Sep 28, 2014

russ1945 said:
Here are the leading teams in the pt differential category:
Baylor (+43), TCU (+37.7), Texas A&M (+36.2), Ole Miss (+30.5), Marshall (+29.2), LSU (+28.4), Oklahoma (+28.3), Oregon (+27.2), Nebraska (+26.4), Georgia So (+26.3), Auburn (+26), Alabama (+25.7), Miss St (+24.8), Wisconsin (+24.5), Notre Dame (+23.5),Duke (+23.2), Ohio St (+22.8), Utah (+22.2), Louisville (+20.4)

also known as, teams that have put a beatdown on SMU.

jblonghorn · Sep 28, 2014

This is very nice info. Good work. Very clear and easy to understand. Russ, what is your perception of A&M? It's unreal that they got to jump 20 spots (give or take) in the polls because they beat a South Carolina team that tonight is no longer ranked and has 2 losses (and almost 3). The Aggie fans really have their chests out and maybe they are good but we've yet to see them play a team. Thoughts?

russ1945 · Sep 28, 2014

jblonghorn said:
This is very nice info. Good work. Very clear and easy to understand. Russ, what is your perception of A&M? It's unreal that they got to jump 20 spots (give or take) in the polls because they beat a South Carolina team that tonight is no longer ranked and has 2 losses (and almost 3). The Aggie fans really have their chests out and maybe they are good but we've yet to see them play a team. Thoughts?

All good things come to an end.....eventually. A&M plays their next 3 games at Miss St, Ole Miss, and at Alabama. Their last 3 games are at Auburn, Mizzou, and they finish up with LSU.
They have only just begun.

russ1945 · Sep 28, 2014

sdf said:
also known as, teams that have put a beatdown on SMU.

True and a very good reason their coach said adios. Every team's point differential will change from now until the end of the regular season, no doubt. I think Baylor is for real. They will now play at Texas, TCU, and at W. Vir. We will find out more about TCU this week. T A&M is just getting into the strength of their schedule. Maybe this is payback for the old cheating days at SMU but keep in mind that Craig James did nothing wrong. lol

sdf · Sep 29, 2014

russ1945 said:
True and a very good reason their coach said adios. Every team's point differential will change from now until the end of the regular season, no doubt. I think Baylor is for real. They will now play at Texas, TCU, and at W. Vir. We will find out more about TCU this week. T A&M is just getting into the strength of their schedule. Maybe this is payback for the old cheating days at SMU but keep in mind that Craig James did nothing wrong. lol

Baylor is definitely for real. I fully expect them to beat Texas by 20+ this weekend. Baylor's offense is just too good to be stopped consistently even by good defenses. Texas just doesnt have the offense to keep pace as the Baylor dee isnt shabby.

russ1945 · Sep 29, 2014

sdf said:
Baylor is definitely for real. I fully expect them to beat Texas by 20+ this weekend. Baylor's offense is just too good to be stopped consistently even by good defenses. Texas just doesnt have the offense to keep pace as the Baylor dee isnt shabby.

And Baylor's defense is good at 3 and outs.

russ1945 · Sep 29, 2014

[h=4]Team Stat Comparison[/h]

	TEX	KU
1st Downs	19	19
3rd down efficiency	7-17	9-19
4th down efficiency	1-2	0-3
Total Yards	329	313
Passing	218	140
Comp-Att	19-34	12-31
Yards per pass	6.4	4.5
Rushing	111	173
Rushing Attempts	36	51
Yards per rush	3.1	3.4
Penalties	6-46	7-52
Turnovers	1	4
Fumbles lost	1	0
Interceptions thrown	0	4
Possession	29:35	30:25

Kansas had 19 first downs and rushed for 173 yds and time of possession was even. 4 TO's did them in.

Week 6 and more

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