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2014 Playoff Outlook

September 29, 2014


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Unlike the past two seasons, one team we are not fearing is the Oakland A's (5/1) , who had MLB's best record as of Aug. 8, but proceeded to lose 30 of their next 46 and had to wait until the final day of the regular season before clinching a postseason berth. It looks like GM Billy Beane made one move too many at the trade deadline, as dealing OF Yoenis Cespedes to the Bosox in the Jon Lester trade would significantly hamper the offense and remove its most-intimidating element; after leading MLB in runs scored prior to the Cespedes trade, Oakland has been the AL's lowest-scoring team. Midseason rotation additions Lester and Jeff Samardzija make it hard to dismiss the A's in a short series, but the offense has been too easily shackled minus Cespedes.

We are more wary of Oakland's wild card opponent, the Kansas City Royals (7/1) , who also have a parade of arms and an overflow of quality in the rotation led by James Shields and recently-dominating Danny Duffy. Though Kansas City is apt to slump at the plate, it has enough pitching to cause serious problems for any foe in a short series and gets to host the A's in Tuesday's wild card game at the Big K.

We do not believe the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (2/1) have a smooth ride awaiting to the World Series despite their home-field edge as long as they stay alive in the postseason. Mike Scioscia has hinted that he could go with a three-man rotation (Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, and Hector Santiago should rookie Matt Shoemaker's oblique strain not heal in time) in the playoffs. But it's the Angels' win percentage vs. playoff-quality foes, hovering around .400 all season (compared to near-.700 vs. also-rans), that is a postseason red flag. Mike Trout's propensity for strikeouts (a whopping 183) is also too easily dismissed by his many supporters. Without the Astros, White Sox, Rangers, or Twins to knock around in October, the Halos might be more vulnerable than many believe.

If the Angels meet the Baltimore Orioles (3/1), it won't happen until the ALCS, and the Birds would have no fear of that matchup after taking 4 of 6 from the Halos this season. There has been some magic about this version of the O's, who have kept scoring runs and winning despite injuries to 3B Manny Machado and C Matt Weiters and the suspension of 1B Chris Davis. And while many wonder if the Birds have enough starting pitching (Bud Norris? Chris Tillman? Wei-Yin Chen?) to survive in the postseason, Buck Showalter has squeezed every possible ounce out of his versatile bullpen. If the relievers' arms haven't fallen off by now, they probably won't in October, either.

How about the Detroit Tigers (5/2)? Although having dealt with myriad bullpen issues in recent years, the problems seem especially acute this season as manager Brad Ausmus has shown less and less faith in erratic closer Joe Nathan as the season has progressed. Moreover, the staff seems a bit less menacing than recent years, with Justin Verlander having lost considerable velocity, and David Price proving inconsistent since his trade-deadline acquisition from the Rays. The Tigers need their offense clicking, because the rotation and bullpen have performed so inconsistently, which should give the edge to the Birds in the ALDS.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Sometimes, "addition by subtraction" really is meaningful in pro sports. And we suggest the injury to 3B Pedro Alvarez has in fact made the Pittsburgh Pirates (11/2) more of a postseason threat. It is no coincidence that the Pirates won 17 of 21 down the stretch with Alvarez sidelined and with do-everything Josh Harrison handling duties effectively at the corner. The Bucs have star power with Andrew McCutchen and a staff with plenty of momentum, as Francisco Liriano and Edinson Volquez have been two of the NL's hottest starters since the All-Star break. The Pirates just missed winning the NL Central, so they must go the wild card route, but they have postseason experience now after advancing from the wild card to the NLDS last season.

We suspect the Bucs are more of a threat than their wild card foe, the San Francisco Giants (7/1) , who have been playing sub-.500 ball (45-53) since early June, a far cry from their World Series winners of 2010 & '12 that hit stride following the All-Star break. The Giants must go on the road to PNC Park for Wednesday's wild card game.

We look forward to the rematch of last year's NLCS, this year a round sooner, between the Los Angeles Dodgers (2/1) and St. Louis Cardinals (7/1) . Interestingly, normally unhittable Dodger ace Clayton Kershaw was anything but in playoffs vs. the Cards last season. But even with Kershaw in untouchable form, the Dodgers performed in an uneven manner much of the campaign, barely getting above .500 at home until late in the season (though the Blue owns MLB's best road mark at 49-32), and there are depth problems in the rotation beyond Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Mercurial OF Yasiel Puig has also failed to smooth the many rough spots in his game that were exploited by the Redbirds last October. Considering the Dodgers' inside-out home-road pattern this season, perhaps it's a break for St. Louis to open the NLDS on the road.

If Adam Wainwright (1.62 ERA in five September starts) can outduel Kershaw in the opener, the momentum of the series shifts completely in St. Louis' direction. No team has fared as well in the postseason lately as the Cardinals, who can still manufacture runs effectively and own proven October forces in Matt Holliday and Yadier Molina. Mike Matheny also has more bullpen options than Don Mattingly, though closer Trevor Rosenthal did blow six saves this season.

But if it's not the Pirates emerging from the in the NL, we expect it will be the Washington Nationals (2/1), who like the Bucs also have had a recent taste of the postseason (2012), though they would rather not recall blowing a 6-0 lead in the deciding Game 5 vs. the Cards in the NLDS. There is more experience and depth on the roster than in 2012, though we wonder about the offense beyond reliable contact hitters CF Denard Span and 3B Ryan Zimmerman. Manager Matt Williams was also forced to realign his bullpen, where the Nats fortunately have several options and recently anointed Drew Storen the new closer after Rafael Soriano began to wobble in August. The pressure is also on flamethrower Stephen Strasburg, who missed the playoffs due to arm problems two years ago. But Jordan Zimmerman is certainly in top form after no-hitting the Marlins in Sunday's regular-season finale. And the Nats earned home-field edge in the NL mainly because of MLB's best ERA, the NL's third highest-scoring offense, and arguably best defense of any contender.

It would not surprise us to see a Beltway World Series. But if the Nats have to hook the Pirates in the NLDS, we might eventually be treated to a rematch of memorable 1971 and '79 Fall Classics between the Bucs and O's instead.

College Betting Recap - Week 5

September 28, 2014


Overall Notes

College Football Week 5 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 40-14

Against the Spread 31-23

Wager Home-Away

Straight Up 19-33-2

Against the Spread 24-28-2

Wager Totals (O/U)

Over-Under 24-27-1

The largest underdog to cash
Akron (+20.5, ML +900) at Penn State, 21-10

The largest favorite to cash
Louisiana State (-43) vs New Mexico State, 63-7

Top 25 Notes

-- There were no shakeups in the Top 10 this week, as all seven teams ranked in The Associated Press Top 10 pulled through, although they were just 3-3-1 ATS.

-- The biggest upset came in Columbia, as South Carolina was stunned by a late touchdown by road dog Missouri, 21-20.

-- Duke entered the weekend with a 12-game regular season win streak, second-longest in the nation behind Florida State. The Blue Devils were done in by Miami, Fla. in soggy South Florida, 22-10. Duke was one of two Top 25 teams to lose outright, although it wasn't much of an upset since they were a road dog.

-- After a two-week layoff, Ohio State came out a bit rusty against Cincinnati. However, they outscored the Bearcats 20-7 in the second half to not only win 50-28, but cover a healthy 17-point spread.

-- Many underestimated Nebraska after their near-miss against FCS foe McNeese State earlier in the year. Since, they have rattled off three straight victories and covers, including an impressive 45-21 shellacking of Illinois Saturday.

-- For the second consecutive weekend it was Auburn winning, but failing to cover. They're 0-2 ATS in the past two games after their 13-game cover streak was ended last week at K-State.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- Top-ranked Florida State survived a scare at Carter-Finley Stadium, taking down North Carolina State 56-41. The Wolfpack opened up a 24-7 lead, and were down just 42-38 entering the final quarter, but they ran out of steam. NC State is 3-0 ATS over the past three. ... The conference suffered two embarrassing losses early in the day when Akron upended Pittsburgh, and Colorado State took down Boston College. Syracuse was also humbled in a neutral-site game against Notre Dame by a 31-15 count.

-- Things continue to go from bad to worse for Michigan, who fell again at home. Minnesota took the Little Brown Jug back to Minneapolis with a convincing 30-14 win. For the first time in 135 years of Michigan football, the Wolverines have three losses before Oct. 1. ... Indiana followed up their impressive road win at Mizzou last week by getting thrashed by Maryland in that team's initial conference game. ... Iowa rolled up a 24-10 win at Purdue, and the Hawkeyes are now 2-0 SU/ATS after starting out 2-1 SU, but 0-3 ATS in the first three. Defense also rules the day for Iowa, as the 'under' has cashed in four straight.

-- No upsets in the Big 12 this week. Texas finally had an impressive showing, covering and blanking Kansas on the road, 23-0. ... Baylor rolled to a 49-28 win at I-State, but depending on where you got in, it was a happy, so-so or unhappy result. The line fluctuated from 20 to 22 points, and many ended up simply pushing.

-- The game of the day might have been in Berkeley, as California rebounded from their Hail Mary loss in Arizona to drop Colorado 59-56 in double-overtime. ... Washington State got a much needed win in Salt Lake City, erasing a 21-0 deficit to stun Utah 28-27. The Utes are now 0-4 all-time in Pac-12 conference openers.

-- Kentucky picked up its first SEC win since the 2012 season, topping Vanderbilt by a 17-7 score. The Wildcats were 0-9 in league play under head coach Mike Stoops. ... Texas A&M outlasted Arkansas 35-28 in overtime. While the Hogs lost, they have now covered in four straight. ... Louisiana State buried New Mexico State 63-7, rebounding from last week's loss to Mississippi State. The Tigers are now 3-0 ATS in games where they are favored by 30-plus points this season.

Mid-Major Report

-- In Conference USA play, Florida Atlantic and Texas-San Antonio played a good game in Boca Raton, although not many likely saw it. The Owls stormed back from a 10-point deficit late in the fourth quarter to upend the Roadrunners 41-37. However, it took a late defensive stand, as UTSA returned a kickoff all the way into the FAU red zone with 12 seconds left. ... For the first time in five games, Western Kentucky saw the 'under' cash in its 36-27 road win and cover at Navy.

-- Texas State might not be the best team in the land, but they sure make their games interesting lately. After taking Illinois to the mat last week in Champaign, the Bobcats outlasted Tulsa in triple-overtime, 37-34. The total was frowned upon by 'under' bettors (see below). The over is 3-1 in TSU games, and 4-0 for Tulsa this season. ... Georgia Southern rubbed out Appalachian State Thursday by a 34-14 count, improving to 5-0 ATS this season.

-- Southern Methodist is not helping the AAC's profile, as they are just really, really bad. The Mustangs were hammered 56-0 by Texas Christian, and they're now 0-4 SU/ATS this season. SMU has scored a total of 12 points, with a single-game high of just six. They have been blanked twice, and they're allowing 50.5 PPG. ... Temple has quietly posted a 3-1 SU/ATS start, including Saturday's 36-10 road win at Connecticut. The under is also 3-1 for the Owls. UConn, on the other hand, is a dismal 1-4 SU and an even worse 0-5 ATS. The under is 1-4 in their five outings.

Bad Beats

-- The total for the Texas State-Tulsa was set at 65, and the teams combined for just 34 points in regulation. However, the teams posted 37 points in the three OT sessions to inch the total over.

-- If you had the 'under' for the first-half total in Oregon State-Southern California, that was a tough pill to swallow. USC posted a Hail Mary touchdown at the end of the second quarter to push the first-half total over.

-- Baylor could have made everyone happy late in Ames, pushing the ball inside the Iowa State 10-yard line with under two minutes to go. Rather than sit on the ball, they were trying to score with their reserves. However, a false start penalty cost them, and they weren't able to recover. Some bettors had to settle for the push, some took the loss. A touchdown would have made everyone happy.

-- Boston College bettors were covering a six-point number into the fourth quarter, but Colorado State outscored them 10-0 to cover and hurt BC moneyline bettors, too. It was the first win for the Rams in the Eastern Time Zone since 2002, and their longest road trip in the Continental United States since a trip to Army in 1959. The Rams made the rare long road outing count.

-- And it wasn't necessarily a bad beat, but Yale won as a 14-point underdog at home, upending Army 49-43 in overtime. It was the first win for an Ivy League school against an FBS club since 1986.

4th Quarter Covers - Week 5

September 29, 2014


Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the fifth college football weekend closing out September. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows, get the details in this weekly column.

Georgia Southern (-17) 34, Appalachian State 14: Georgia Southern stormed out to a 17-0 lead in this matchup of former Southern Conference rivals but Appalachian State rallied to close to within 10 points by halftime. Appalachian State spent the entire third quarter on the doorstep to score but they wound up failing on 4th and 4 inside the Georgia Southern 10 as the kicking game was avoided after great struggles in the previous game. Appalachian State was handed great field position again after a blocked punt but an interception at the one-yard line ended that threat and Georgia Southern put together back-to-back scoring drives to go up by 20, just past the favorite spread that climbed as high as -19½ on Thursday. In the fourth quarter Appalachian State would drive down the Georgia Southern 12-yard line only to again come up empty as the underdog certainly had plenty of opportunities to earn the cover.

Oklahoma State (-14) 45, Texas Tech 35: Both teams had over 500 yards in this game and with a seven-point margin heading into the fourth quarter a tight finish seemed possible. Oklahoma State settled for a field goal to go up by 10 early in the fourth quarter and then after a turnover the Cowboys punched in a touchdown to take a 45-28 lead, past the home favorite spread. As he has been known to do from time-to-time, Mike Gundy went for the onside kick up by 17 with about eight minutes to go in the game. Texas Tech took advantage of the short field for a spread-busting touchdown behind back-up quarterback Patrick Mahomes with six minutes to go.

Fresno State (-6½) 35, New Mexico 24: Fresno State had a big yardage edge against New Mexico Friday night but they also had two turnovers as they struggled to pull away, actually trailing 24-21 late in the third quarter. Fresno State scored in the final minute of the third quarter to lead by four and scored three minutes into the fourth quarter to go up by 11. New Mexico had four fourth quarter possessions but the Lobos never threatened to score in the final frame.

Baylor (-20½) 49, Iowa State 28: With a 35-7 halftime lead this year’s meeting between Baylor and Iowa State did not look much different than last season’s 71-7 rout. The Cyclones and Bears would exchange four touchdowns in the third quarter to keep the margin at 28 points heading into the final frame. The spread on this game fluctuated between 22½ at the opening to the closing number of 20½ but most on the favored Bears were burned by a 51-yard touchdown pass from Iowa State with less than five minutes to go, trimming the final margin to just 21 points.

Virginia (-26) 45, Kent State 13: A Virginia team that won just two games last season is not accustomed to being this type of a favorite and the Cavaliers actually trailed 10-7 after the first quarter and then led just 17-10 more than halfway through the third quarter. Virginia would score four touchdowns in the span of about 13 minutes of game clock to put the game away. Two of the scoring drives were just 20 yards long after turnovers as Virginia turned a 21-point lead heading into the fourth quarter into a 32-point win past the favorite spread.

Iowa (-7½) 24, Purdue 10: The underdog spread for the Boilermakers fell from +12½ all the way down to just +7½ and with a first quarter interception return touchdown Purdue looked like the winning side. The Boilermakers actually took that lead to 10-0 in the second quarter but Iowa managed to tie the game before halftime. It took until the final minute of the third quarter for Iowa to score again, taking a 17-10 lead into the final frame and with dominant statistics in the game the Hawkeyes managed to earn the cover as well with a game sealing touchdown with about five minutes to go.

Toledo (-10) 42, Central Michigan 28: This key MAC West game wound up with a tight finish as a 34-14 lead for Toledo tuned into just a six-point lead halfway through the fourth quarter after Central Michigan completed an 85-yard drive. The spread on this game dropped from an opening spread of -14 down to just -10 by Saturday and that difference proved pivotal as Toledo scored a touchdown with three minutes to go in the game to seal the win. Up by 12, Toledo went for two and succeeded to win by 14. Central Michigan nearly spoiled the number again however as they took the ball down to the Toledo 10-yard line in the final minute before fumbling away the backdoor cover opportunity.

Kentucky (-17) 17, Vanderbilt 7: Seeking its first SEC win since 2011 Kentucky dominated the statistics in this game but failed to close the door on Vanderbilt in a game that featured no points in the second half. The only score for Vanderbilt came on an interception return touchdown and Kentucky came up empty despite four trips into Vanderbilt territory in the second half. The game ended on the Vanderbilt 18-yard line as Kentucky had no incentive to put in another touchdown that would have led to a push for most in a game where they haled Vanderbilt to only 139 yards.

Colorado State (+6½) 24, Boston College: This spread was a roller coaster all week, opening at -5 and climbing all the way up to -9½ before falling back below a touchdown by kickoff. Boston College led 21-14, right near the number entering the fourth quarter but Colorado State took over the fourth quarter for a minor upset with the key play being a fourth quarter interception deep in Colorado State territory with Boston College still leading the game.

Buffalo (-7) 35, Miami, OH 27: Miami, OH is riding a long losing streak but the Redhawks have been pretty competitive this season. Miami led at several points in this game including taking a 27-26 lead early in the fourth quarter. The Redhawks went for two after that score and failed, in what would prove to be a key play that would haunt the underdog backers by the game’s end. Buffalo scored a touchdown a few minutes later to go up by five, also missing on the two-point conversion and the Bulls added a field goal later in the final quarter to reach the final margin of eight points, just past the home favorite spread. Miami’s next drive would enter Buffalo territory but the Redhawks left with another tough defeat.

Texas State (+3) 37, Tulsa 34: This game featured misleading scoring and statistics going to three overtime as it was just 7-0 Texas State at halftime. The Bobcats led 17-3 entering the fourth quarter but Tulsa would send the game to overtime with two fourth quarter touchdowns, the second of which game with 10 seconds left in the game to complete a 17-play drive. The first two overtimes featured four touchdowns before Tulsa settled for a field goal going first in the third overtime. Texas State punched in the touchdown for the minor upset and that score also gave ‘over’ backers an amazingly fortunate win.

Bowling Green (-5½) 47, Massachusetts 42: This game featured a massive line shift from -10½ all the way down to -4½ early in the week before climbing a point to the closing number. Both teams posted over 600 yards in the game with some big momentum shifts. Massachusetts took advantage of a short field to take a 35-33 lead in the third quarter, a score that held until three minutes into the fourth. Bowling Green extended its lead to 47-35 with less than 10 minutes to go in the game but Massachusetts would score late to climb back to within five, and creating some mixed results at the window.

Missouri (+6½) 21, South Carolina 20: After a hard fought first half, South Carolina appeared to take command of the SEC East with a 20-7 lead halfway through the fourth quarter hosting Missouri. It took three plays for Missouri to go 68 yards to get back within the game however, down six but with limited time left. The Missouri defense stepped up to force a three-and-out and in dramatic fashion Missouri took the lead with just over a minute to go with a 4th down touchdown run. That came after converting another 4th down on the drive as well. South Carolina did not advance on its final possession as Missouri moved to 1-0 in SEC play with Georgia up next.

Miami, FL (-4) 22, Duke 10: This line bounced from -5 up to -7 and then back down to -4. For much of the game those differences looked like they would prove important. Miami led 9-7 at the half and 16-10 heading into the third quarter taking advantage of a fumble deep in Duke territory while scoring the touchdown on a 4th and 19 play in a huge blow for backers of the Blue Devils. In the fourth quarter Miami followed up another Duke interception with a 47-yard touchdown pass to go up by 12, missing on the two-point conversion. In the final five minutes of the game Duke had three possessions deep in Miami territory seeking a backdoor cover but they came up empty in what proved to be a terrible game for Duke quarterback Anthony Boone.

Ohio State (-17) 50, Cincinnati 28: Despite huge yardage numbers for Ohio State, Cincinnati hung in this matchup, actually closing to within five points in the third quarter. Ohio State pulled away with a 15-point lead entering the fourth and the Buckeyes added a touchdown in the fourth to seal the cover as the defense held firm in the final frame.

Mississippi (-20½) 24, Memphis 3: Mississippi had a sloppy performance with turnovers and missed scoring opportunities as the Memphis defense came up with several big plays. Mississippi led just 7-3 into the fourth quarter, seemingly leaving the three-touchdown underdog in a secure position. Similar to the opening game with Boise State, the Rebels put on a show late with three touchdowns, including a score from just 23 yards after a turnover. A facemask penalty on Memphis late in the game probably ruined the cover for the Tigers as Mississippi was moved to the Memphis 21-yard line and the Tigers oddly opted to pass for a touchdown that put the margin at 21 points with just over a minute to go, meaning a push for most on the game.

Florida Atlantic (+4) 41, Texas San Antonio 37: The Roadrunners led by four at halftime and entering the fourth quarter, dead even with the closing spread. With two field goals Texas San Antonio moved to a comfortable 10-point lead with fewer than eight minutes to go in the game. Incredibly a Florida Atlantic offense put together two scoring drives in the final minutes with mainly the passing attack, going 75-yards to close within three with four minutes to go and scoring the go-ahead touchdown after a 93-yard drive with just 20 seconds on the clock.

Washington State (+12) 28, Utah 27: Washington State trailed by 17 at the half and by 13 early in the fourth quarter but the Cougars can’t be slept on. Washington State closed to within six with eight minutes to go and then with five minutes to go Connor Haliday hit Vince Mayle for 81 yards to put the Cougars improbably in front. A shaky Washington State defense held twice for the upset win.

San Diego State (-18) 34, UNLV 17: The Aztecs led by 18 entering the fourth quarter, even with the closing spread and just past the common number of -17. In the fourth UNLV scored a touchdown while San Diego State settled for short field goals of 24 yards and 31 yards to give a narrow cover or a push to the underdog Rebels. The yardage was nearly even in the game so it was perhaps a just result.

Nevada (-7) 21, San Jose State 10: Those that did not stay up for this game could be misled by a very deceptive final score as San Jose State out-gained Nevada by 190 yards and led 10-7 into the fourth quarter. Nevada took the lead with a long touchdown drive early in the fourth and then also stole the road favorite cover with an interception return touchdown as the Wolf Pack had a 3-0 edge in turnovers. San Jose State was in Nevada territory throughout the fourth quarter but had a missed field goal and turnovers to show for it in a very tough defeat for the Spartans.

Top 25 Betting Recap - Week 5

September 29, 2014


Week 5 of the 2014 NCAA football betting season is in the books, and today, we're going to be taking a look at each of the Top 25 teams in the rankings and see how they did from an ATS perspective in this go around this past week.

(Results in parentheses represent SU Result-ATS Result)

1) Florida State (W-L vs. NC State 56-41)
FSU wasn't in a dog fight at all last year until the National Championship Game. All of a sudden, it has been in big trouble in four of its last five games.

2) Alabama (Bye)

3) Oklahoma (Bye)

4) Oregon (Bye)

5) Auburn (W-L vs. Louisiana Tech 45-17)
Yet another game where both Nick Marshall and Cameron Artis-Payne reached 100 yards on the ground.

6) Baylor (W-P vs. Iowa State 49-21)
The Bears were unlucky not to cover after putting up over 600 yards against Iowa State.

7) Texas A&M (W-L vs. Arkansas 35-28)
The Aggies should have been dead in the water late on against the Hogs, but their defense and a little bit of luck got them through a really tough game in Arlington.

8) Notre Dame (W-W vs. Syracuse 31-15)
Just the fact that the Irish were only favored by nine tells you what the oddsmakers really think about them.

9) Michigan State (W-L vs. Wyoming 56-14)
You know you scheduled poorly when you win a game by 42 points and you still don't cover the spread.

10) UCLA (W-W vs. Arizona State 62-27)
Brett Hundley is officially back after throwing four TDs on the road against the Sun Devils.

11) Ole Miss (W-P vs. Memphis 24-3)
You'll have to pardon the Rebels for looking relatively flat in their game against Memphis with Alabama on deck.

12) Arizona State (L-L vs. UCLA 62-27)
Not having Taylor Kelly would have been a good excuse to lose this game had the defense not allowed 62 points.

13) Georgia (W-L vs. Tennessee 35-32)
Todd Gurley continues to rewrite the UGA record books for running backs, and it's a good thing for the Dawgs. They'd be a 1-3 team without him this year.

14) Stanford (W-L vs. Washington 20-13)
It wasn't a pretty game for Stanford, but the Cardinal defense got the job done against a really good Washington offense when it needed to come up big the most.

15) South Carolina (L-L vs. Missouri 21-20)
Steve Spurrier has a lot of questions to answer after his team blew a 20-7 lead at home against Missouri. Any hopes of winning the SEC East or playing in the first college football playoff are gone.

16) Mississippi State (Bye)

17) Wisconsin (W-L vs. South Florida 27-10)
Melvin Gordon now has 45 carries, 434 yards, and seven TDs in his last two games.

18) LSU (W-W vs. New Mexico State 63-7)
The Bayou Bengals prepped well for their first road game of the season at Auburn next week.

19) Nebraska (W-W vs. Illinois 45-14)
When are we going to forget that McNeese State game and realize that the Cornhuskers can play?

20) Ohio State (W-W vs. Cincinnati 50-28)
Same general question about JT Barrett. Don't count out the possibility of the Buckeyes going on a big run from here.

21) BYU (Bye)

22) USC (W-W vs. Oregon State 35-10)
The USC defense held the Beavers to 181 total yards and a 1-for-10 conversion rate on third downs.

23) Duke (L-L vs. Miami 22-10)
Last week, Danny Kannell said if the Blue Devils were in the ACC, they would be ranked in the Top 5 in the country. Yeah… no…

24) East Carolina (Bye)

25) Kansas State (W-W vs. UTEP 58-28)
How dare the Big XII tell Bill Snyder that he can't wear his purple windbreakers with old bowl patches on them! The Wildcats are legit contenders this year, and that loss to Auburn will look like old news soon.

Line Study: Separation Saturday

September 29, 2014 3:18 pm ET


Every Monday, the Eye on College Football's Tom Fornelli takes an early look at this week's most interesting point spreads in Line Study.

Last week I struggled trying to find three "big" games to focus on in Line Study, but I don't have any such problems today. In fact, the only difficulty I ran into was having to choose only three games to feature from the coming weekend. There are six games between ranked teams on Saturday, seven if you go by the Coaches Poll where Arizona State is hanging on at No. 24.

So I've decided not to limit myself to three; I'm doing them all.

That's right, I'm a rebel. I'm breaking these unwritten rules that I implemented myself. That's just how I get down.

The Games You'll Be Watching

No. 3 Alabama (-6) at No. 11 Ole Miss

The line in this game opened with Alabama as a four-point favorite, which seemed awfully low, even if the Tide is on the road. It's since grown to six points, and to be honest, it still looks like too small of a number. But is it?

Ole Miss isn't ranked No. 11 in the country by accident, it's been very impressive to start the season. In fact, since struggling out of the gate in the first three quarters of its season opener against Boise State, Ole Miss has outscored its opponents 149-28. The Rebels defense is ranked atop the SEC in total defense (248 yards per game), yards allowed per play (3.74), defensive pass efficiency (74.20), and points allowed (8.5 per game).

Of course, the caveat here is that Ole Miss has played Boise State, Vanderbilt, Louisiana-Lafayette and Memphis. It hasn't played a team anywhere near the caliber of Alabama, and this Saturday will be a much taller mountain to climb. So can the Rebels get there? Or, more importantly, can they cover?

Ole Miss is 4-0 against the spread so far this season, and 21-9 overall under Hugh Freeze. Alabama, on the other hand, has never been a spread-shredding juggernaut and is off to a 1-3 start. And while it hasn't played a true road game yet this season, the Tide is 2-5 ATS when favored on the road or at a neutral site the last two years. So the numbers would indicate that you should take Ole Miss +6, and maybe you should, but I'm not.

I'm sorry, while I think this Ole Miss defense is legit, I just can't allow myself to put faith in Bo Wallace against the Alabama defense. He's already thrown six interceptions on the season, and I can't help but envision him throwing a huge pick at a terrible time against Alabama on Saturday. So I don't care what the number say, I'm taking Alabama -6, and I'm doing it before the number gets any larger.

No. 6 Texas A&M at No. 12 Mississippi State (-1.5)

The Aggies actually opened up as the favorite in this game before the line adjusted to give the Bulldogs the edge at home. Frankly, when I stare at this line, I don't know whether to put everything I own on A&M or just stay the hell away from it. Mississippi State just confuses the hell out of me right now.

I didn't think the Bulldogs had any chance of covering against LSU, let alone beating the Tigers as soundly as they did, and I have a hard time seeing them covering this game at home. The numbers don't help much, either. Yes, Mississippi State is 3-1 ATS so far this season, but that one loss came when the Bulldogs "struggled" with UAB in week two. The Aggies are 3-2 ATS this year, but they're also 2-0 outside of College Station. Last year they went 0-5 in such games.

If there's one thing that sticks out to me, though, it's that Dan Mullen's teams have generally been better against the number in conference play than straight up. The Bulldogs are 23-18 ATS in SEC games under Mullen, and 14-8 when favored at home. All that being said, the numbers just don't convince me in either direction, and I'm left to rely on what I've seen from both teams.

And the truth is, even with the impressive performance Mississippi State had against LSU, I just think Texas A&M is a better football team. So I'm taking Texas A&M +1.5.

No. 15 LSU at No. 5 Auburn (-8)

LSU's freshman quarterback Brandon Harris will be making his first career start on the road against the defending conference champion. Should be an easy pick, right? Well, it's not. Harris has seen plenty of playing time this season, and frankly, LSU's offense has looked a lot better when he's been under center.

With that being said, I'm not having nearly as difficult a time deciphering this game as I did the first two SEC West imbroglios. We saw the kind of trouble Mississippi State's offense gave the LSU defense a few weeks ago, and I think Auburn's rushing attack is far more dangerous than MSU's.

There's also the fact that I just don't think LSU is all that good this season, relative to what we're used to seeing from LSU, anyway. Don't care about the trends, don't care about the recent history, I'm taking Auburn -8.

No. 14 Stanford (-1) at No. 9 Notre Dame

With a one-point spread you're basically just picking a winner, and I wish picking a winner was simple here. Notre Dame is 4-0 on the season, but the Irish haven't really been tested as of yet, as their toughest opponent has been either Michigan or Syracuse. Stanford has definitely been through some tough battles, losing to USC and beating Washington on the road last week.

But my problem with Stanford is the offense (not the defense -- that defense is real). I'm just not sure where it's going to come from in any week, and it's been horrible in the red zone. The Cardinal offense has reached the red zone 19 times this season and it's managed to score only eight touchdowns and four field goals. That's 3.16 points per red zone trip, and that's horrible. Plus, those numbers are slightly inflated by games against UC-Davis and Army; in its two games against USC and Washington, the Cardinal have only managed three touchdowns in 10 red zone trips (2.7 points per trip).

That's just sad.

And while I've always been firmly on the side of betting against Notre Dame at home, the Irish are actually 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and 3-1 ATS so far this season. So I'm taking Notre Dame +1 and hoping for some more favorable calls from the officials like the last time Stanford visited South Bend.

No. 4 Oklahoma (-5) at No. 25 TCU

TCU has looked awesome to start the season, going 3-0 and outscoring opponents 134-21. Its defense is ranked second nationally in yards per game (218.7) and first in yards allowed per play (3.08). It's been outstanding.

But there's one problem. TCU's three games have come against Samford, Minnesota and SMU.

Does this mean the defense isn't good? No, of course not. It's just not as good as the numbers would indicate, and this week it's facing an Oklahoma team that's arguably been the best team in college football through the first month of the season.

The Sooners are 3-1 ATS this year, and the only loss is due to being unable to cover 33.5 points against Louisiana Tech. Oklahoma only won by 32. TCU just hasn't played a team of this caliber yet, and while the defense is going to keep the Sooners below their 45 points per game average, I don't think the Horned Frogs' offense will find enough success against an Oklahoma defense that's also a top-20 defense nationally in yards per play and points allowed. I'm taking Oklahoma -5.

No. 19 Nebraska at No. 10 Michigan State (-8.5)

Don't look now, but there's a game in the Big Ten that's actually worth watching this weekend!

Honestly, at this point you have to think this is the first of two times these teams will play this season, as both seem to be the favorites to end up in Indianapolis. So far this season, both teams have been impressive against the spread, with Nebraska going 4-1 and Michigan State 3-1. The difference is that Michigan State failed to cover on the road against Oregon, while Nebraska did it at home against McNeese State.

I'm willing to forget that McNeese State game, though. Having seen Nebraska play since that afternoon that close call seems more the result of a team taking a win for granted and getting quite the surprise than an actual reflection of the Huskers themselves.

In my mind, this game is going to come down to Ameer Abdullah, Imani Cross and the Nebraska ground game against the Michigan State defense -- a defense that has been stout against the run but has problems in the secondary. I just don't think that should be much of a concern in this game. I don't believe that Tommy Armstrong is an efficient enough passer to truly exploit the problems the Spartans have had at times in the secondary. Sure, they might hit a big play at some point, but they'll need more than one big play to win this game on the road.

Overall I just think Michigan State is the better team, and it's also better rounded offensively. The Spartans can move the ball on the ground and through the air, and I think that's going to be enough to cover the eight and a half. Take Michigan State -8.5.

The Games You Should Exploit

SMU at No. 22 East Carolina (-38)

Here's a fun game to play. It's called "Betting Against SMU." The gist is you bet against SMU. The Mustangs are not only 0-4 ATS so far this season, but they're not even coming close to covering, failing to do so by an average of 22 points per game.

This week SMU, which has scored 12 points all season, plays an East Carolina team that is scoring 43.3 points per game.

So, yeah, take East Carolina -38.

Kansas at West Virginia (-25.5)

West Virginia is a much better team than its 2-2 record reflects, as those losses have come to Alabama and Oklahoma. The Mountaineers are 3-1 ATS this season and playing a Kansas team that's not only very bad, but is 1-3 ATS this season and just fired its head coach this week.

Take West Virginia -25.5.

BYU hosts Utah State

September 30, 2014


UTAH STATE AGGIES (2-2) at BYU COUGARS (4-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: BYU -21

No. 18 BYU Cougars hosts Utah State Friday night in an attempt to maintain a flawless record for the 2014 campaign.

Utah State has had a disappointing start to the season and while the school has earned wins as large favorites against both Idaho State and Wake Forest, it has failed to cover a spread in four contests this season. Last week the Aggies traveled to Arkansas State as 2.5-point underdogs and were unable to pull off an upset as they absorbed a 21-14 overtime loss despite outgaining their opponent 413-316 and forcing four turnovers. Over the first four games, they rank in the bottom half of the nation in nearly every category, both offensively and defensively, and will have a very tough matchup this week.

BYU has been impressive thus far with four consecutive SU victories, but has failed to cover the spread in each of its past two contests. In the most recent game against Virginia on Sept. 20, the Cougars overcame an early 10-3 deficit to win 41-33 as 16-point favorites, as they were outgained 519-332 in total yards while forcing two turnovers in the contest. These two programs have played some rather low-scoring games over the past two years with BYU coming away with a 31-14 victory as a 5.5-point underdog last season and winning 6-3 back in 2012 as a 6.5-point favorite. Trends show that Utah State is an impressive 10-3 ATS (77%) over the past three seasons after playing its previous game on the road, while the Cougars are 8-2 ATS (80%) after failing to cover the spread in two of their past three contests in the same timeframe.

As far as injuries are concerned, the Aggies may be without starting QB Chuckie Keeton (knee) and HB Joe Hill (ankle) who are questionable for this contest. BYU has top WR Jordan Leslie (ankle), HB Algernon Brown (ankle) and LB Bronson Kaufusi (ankle) all listed as questionable for the matchup.

Utah State distributes its offense between the running attack (154 YPG) and passing game (215 YPG) while ranking 94th among FBS schools in total yards (369 YPG). The Aggies have scored a meager 24.3 PPG (95th in nation) behind the arms of QBs Chuckie Keeton (426 pass yards, 2 TD, 4 INT) and Darell Garretson (389 pass yards, 3 TD, 2 INT). Garretson has played the bulk of the past two contests with Keeton out, and has played well, going 27-for-46 (59%) with 268 yards (5.8 YPA) and 2 TD (1 INT) in the overtime loss last week.

The running back situation has been cloudy thus far with three different backs getting 20 or more attempts with HB Rashad Hall (141 rush yards, 1 TD) leading the way with 33 attempts (4.3 YPC). WR JoJo Natson has also been a big-play guy out of the backfield with 158 yards on a mere 17 attempts (9.3 YPC). Natson has also been a big part of the passing game with 172 yards on 20 catches (8.6 avg) and a touchdown while WR Hunter Sharp (305 rec. yards, 2 TD) has been the top option through the air. The defense has not looked great while allowing 25.8 PPG and giving up a fairly low 334.8 YPG (32nd in FBS). LB Zach Vigil (37 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) is the leader of the defense that will need to perform, especially with fellow all-MWC LB Kyler Fackrel out for the season.

BYU ranks among the top-50 FBS schools in total offense (449.3 YPG) this season thanks to an impressive performance so far from its ground game (230.3 YPG, 26th in FBS). QB Taysom Hill (876 pass yards, 6 TD, 3 INT) has improved from last season, as he is completing 66.1% of his passes for 7.2 YPA and was a solid 13-for-23 (56.5%) with 187 yards and 2 TD (0 INT) in the team's last game two weeks ago. Hill's biggest threat does not come from his arm though, but rather his legs that have helped him gain 428 rushing yards (5.4 YPC) and 7 TD through the first four games. He leads the team in rushing, while HB Jamaal Williams (296 pass yards, 3 TD) is the top running back, averaging 4.9 YPC in three contests. Williams performed exceptionally well two weeks ago against Houston as he picked up 139 yards on 28 attempts (5.0 YPC) and two touchdowns.

WR Jordan Leslie (227 rec. yards, 1 TD) is the top guy in the passing game and could miss this game, leaving WR Mitch Matthews (134 rec. yards, 2 TD) as the No. 1 option. The defense has been impressive this season, as it has allowed 18.8 PPG (25th in FBS) while giving up 364.3 YPG. DB Craig Bills (26 tackles, 1 INT) and LB Alani Fua (24 tackles, 1 sack) have looked impressive amongst a defense that has proven to be full of playmakers.

Oregon, Arizona clash

September 30, 2014


ARIZONA WILDCATS (4-0) at OREGON DUCKS (4-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Oregon -23, Total: 70

No. 2 Oregon will look for some revenge on Thursday night when it hosts undefeated Arizona in Eugene.

Last season, these two teams met in Tucson, with the Wildcats dominating the Ducks in a 42-16 victory. The 26-point defeat was the worst loss that an Oregon team had suffered since a 44-10 loss at USC in 2008. Arizona (1-3 ATS) was outgained its opponent that day (506 to 482), but dominated the line of scrimmage, rushing for 304 yards while having the ball for 35:29. The best way to slow down the Ducks offense is to keep it off the field, and the Wildcats will try to do that again.

Arizona is coming off a thrilling victory against California, winning the game on a last second Hail Mary. However, the team has not done well the past three seasons coming off a big win, going 1-8 after two or more consecutive straight-up wins. Arizona has not defeated a ranked team on the road since a victory against USC in 2009, and lost 49-0 the last time it visited Eugene. The Ducks (1-3 ATS) had a week off after a much-tougher-than-expected victory against Washington State. That bye could play a big role in this game, as college football favorites of 21.5 to 31.5 points off a bye week are 51-17 ATS (75%) in the past 10 seasons. Oregon QB Marcus Mariota is one of the best players in the nation, but in the game last season, he threw two of his the interceptions he recorded on the season in that defeat. The only significant injury in this matchup is Oregon OL Jake Fisher (knee), who is considered questionable.

In the victory against Cal, the Wildcats scored 36 points in the final quarter to complete an incredible comeback. QB Anu Solomon (1,454 pass yards, 13 TD; 167 rush yards) had a huge game against the Bears, throwing for 520 yards. The freshman from Las Vegas has done a nice job of not turning the ball over this year, throwing only three interceptions. He is a big reason his team ranks in the Top 30 in the nation in passing (366 YPG, 8th), scoring (42.0 PPG, 16th) and 29th in rushing (228 YPG), making the offense very difficult to slow down. RB Nick Wilson (77 carries, 482 rush yards, 4 TD) explodes from the backfield, and is the perfect complement to the strong passing attack. The Wildcats have two wide receivers, Cayleb Jones (29 catches, 475 yards, 6 TD) and Austin Hill (15 catches, 263 yards, 3 TD) that are capable of stretching the defense. In the win against California, Jones had 13 catches for 186 yards and three touchdowns. Hill, on the other hand, caught the Hail Mary.

The Ducks have a star in the secondary in Ife Ekpre-Olomu, but he will be able to cover only one of those guys, and does not have the height to battle for the ball the pair of 6-foot-3 receivers. However, the offense should be able to score, but if the Wildcats are going to get the upset win, the defense will have to come to play. Linebacker Scooby Wright III (51 tackles, 7 TFL and 4 sacks) is the leader on a defense allowing a subpar 27.3 PPG (77th in the country). Senior safety Jared Tevis (37 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 1 INT) is a talented player that will play a huge role in this game. He will have to make sure the Ducks do not get behind him, while also having to help stop the run.

The Ducks have been one of the top offenses in the country the past few seasons, and this season is no different. Oregon enters this game ranked 4th in scoring (48.5 PPG), 16th in passing (330.3 YPG) and 33rd in rushing (225.3 YPG). There are so many players on this team that can make the can make the big play, but none of them do it better than QB Marcus Mariota (1,135 pass yards, 11.8 YPA, 13 TD, 0 INT) is as effective of a quarterback as there is in the country. He can provide the team with a big play at any given moment, but he also does not take the big risks that can hurt the team. Mariota has also gained 214 rushing yards and three touchdowns. However, his first instinct is not to run the ball, knowing he has teammates that can dominate the game from that position.

RB Royce Freeman (48 carries, 261 yards, 5 TD) is the workhorse back of the group, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. When the team is in third-and-short, this is the guy they are looking to. However, if they are seeking a long gainer, RB Byron Marshall (21 carries, 201 yards, 1 TD) is the man. Like the ground game, the Ducks rely on multiple players to catch passes from Mariota. WR Devon Allen (14 rec, 299 yards, 5 TD) has emerged as the top target for Mariota when he is attacking down the field. Marshall (235 rec. yards, 2 TD) and WR Keanon Lowe (13 rec, 221 yards, 3 TD) are also two guys that defenses have to focus on. Like the Wildcats, the offense is the strength of the Oregon team, but will need a huge performance from the defense to cover the hefty spread in this game.

The defense enters the game ranked 42nd in the nation in points allowed (21.3 PPG). However, that unit allowed Washington State to throw for 436 yards on them two weeks ago. Safety Reggie Daniels (28 tackles) is the leading tackler on this team, but he will be tested a lot. CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (10 tackles) is one of the superior cover corners in the country, but he will have to remain disciplined for his team to get the sizable victory. DB Erick Dargan has three interceptions on the season, and he will also be counted upon to help slow down the Wildcats offense.

Arizona at Oregon

September 30, 2014


College football is back to open up October on Thursday night with a huge game in the Pac-12. Last week’s Thursday night Pac-12 clash proved to be a blowout, but this week’s matchup of undefeated teams could provide a great test for Oregon, one of the national favorites going against an upstart Arizona team that beat the Ducks last season.

Match-up: Arizona Wildcats at Oregon Ducks
Venue: Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon
Date: Thursday, October 2, 2014
Time/TV: 10:30 PM ET (ESPN)
Line: Oregon -23
Last Meeting: 2013 Arizona (+18.5) 42-16 at Arizona

Oregon has opened the season 4-0 with a big win over Michigan State under its belt. The Ducks are one of the favorites in the national picture this season, but the Pac-12 season will be a great challenge as the narrow conference opening win over Washington State displayed. While Stanford has handed Oregon its first loss each of the last two seasons, Arizona also beat Oregon last season in one of the more shocking results of the season.

Two weeks after then #2 Oregon lost at Stanford, they traveled to Tucson to face an Arizona team coming off back-to-back losses. Three Oregon turnovers helped the upset cause but Arizona dominated on the ground behind Ka’Deem Carey, with the Wildcats posting over 300 yards rushing. Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota had an interception on the first play from scrimmage and Arizona was in control the entire way. The last time these teams met in Eugene featured quite a different result with Oregon winning 49-0 in 2012.

Rich Rodriguez has resurrected his career in Tucson with back-to-back 8-5 seasons and the window may be open for the Wildcats in the Pac-12 South to produce an even stronger season in 2014. Arizona is 4-0, but it has not been a dominant start with each of the last three wins coming in one-score games, including a miraculous comeback at home against California two weeks ago. This game could prove to be a pivotal point in the season for the Wildcats as next week Arizona hosts USC and losing back-to-back games could be a big blow for a young team.

In a bit of a surprise, redshirt freshmen Anu Solomon won the starting quarterback job for the Wildcats and he has played well with 13 touchdown passes in four games though he has three interceptions in his last two games. Solomon attempted 73 passes in the win over California while also rushing 16 times as he led Arizona to 36 fourth quarter points. Arizona was lucky to win on a Hail Mary pass in the end, but Solomon’s resolve and leadership should go a long way to building confidence with his teammates.

The Arizona defense allowed big numbers in the Cal game and the Wildcats are allowing over 27 points per game this season. While Solomon has been a bigger passing threat than most expected, this is still a great rushing team, posting 228 yards on the ground Nick Wilson leading the team with 482 yards on 6.3 yards per carry. Sophomore wide receiver Cayleb Jones already has 29 receptions this season including 22 in the last two games as the top aerial threat for the Wildcats.

Mariota is a Heisman Trophy frontrunner for the Ducks and he has 13 touchdowns and no interceptions in four games this season while also rushing for 214 yards. Mariota has taken 10 sacks already this season and it is clear that the Oregon offensive line is not as strong this year as in past seasons for the program. Oregon is rushing for 225 yards as a team, but that is an average well down from last season when the team rushed for 274 yards per game. Oregon is still the fourth-highest scoring team in the nation at this point in the season, however, averaging over 48 points per game. By season’s end, putting up 46 points against Michigan State should look pretty impressive, but the big win for the Ducks was a bit misleading with 21 unanswered points late in the game.

Oregon’s game with Washington State two weeks ago to open the Pac-12 season provided reason for concern for the Ducks. Oregon had clobbered Washington State in the previous two seasons with the Cougars led by Mike Leach. This year, the Cougars had the ball with a chance to tie the game late and the yardage in the game was nearly identical. Washington State had two turnovers compared to none for the Ducks and Mariota played a simply remarkable game to lead the Ducks to the win, completing 21 of 25 passes with five touchdowns.

Washington State quarterback Connor Halliday certainly exposed the Oregon defense in passing for 436 yards for Washington State and if not for a few key plays it could have been a huge upset that would have completely shaken up the Pac-12 picture. That success should give confidence to a more versatile Arizona offense entering this game.

While an 11-2 season in Mark Helfrich’s first season leading the Ducks is nothing to scoff at, Helfrich has huge shoes to fill taking over for Chip Kelly and the expectations will remain sky high. Next up on the schedule is a huge game at UCLA that many figure to be a preview of the Pac-12 title game at the end of the season. This may be the more important game for the Helfrich and the Ducks, needing to bounce back after a shaky performance and while seeking to avenge an embarrassing loss from last season.

Arizona Historical Trends: The Wildcats have covered in six of the last nine meetings with Oregon going back to 2005, but they are just 3-7 ATS at Oregon since 1989 with just one S/U win. Arizona is on a 97-80-2 ATS run as an underdog going back to 1980 including going 62-45 ATS as a road underdog and 27-18 ATS as a double-digit road underdog.

Oregon Historical Trends: Despite some inflated spreads in recent years, Oregon is 39-32-2 ATS at home since 2003, and 30-26-2 ATS as a home favorite since 2005. Oregon is just 8-13-1 ATS since 2011 as a favorite of 20 or more, however, including failing in all three instances already this season.

There are two additional games on the Thursday night:

Florida Atlantic at Florida International 7:00 PM ET (FS1)
Line: Florida Atlantic -7

Florida Atlantic has failed to cover in three straight meetings in this South Florida series, although the Owls won 21-6 with convincing numbers in last season’s meeting, holding FIU to just 132 yards. Both teams are coming off upset wins last week as Florida Atlantic beat Texas San Antonio, 41-37 and Florida International won at UAB, 34-20. Both teams caught some breaks last week, but the winner of this game should emerge in the Conference USA East race or at least the bowl picture with the victor moving to 3-3. Florida Atlantic has played the tougher schedule and has the better offensive numbers, but Florida International has been stout defensively while creating 17 turnovers in five games.

The Panthers do have the worst third down conversion percentage in the nation as the offense has been very limited. With junior quarterback Jaquez Johnson healthy, the Owls are the more viable offensive team and he had a great game last week in a significant win over UTSA. The spread was nearly four touchdowns for the Owls at home last season as Florida International was a 1-11 team last season closing out the season, but both of these teams have looked improved in 2014. Florida Atlantic is 6-2 ATS as a road favorite since 2007.

Central Florida at Houston 7:00 PM ET (ESPN)
Line: Houston -3

The Cougars have an impressive recent track record at home, but so far this season Houston has been a disappointment, failing in its two biggest games with losses to Texas-San Antonio at home and at BYU. This is the first AAC game of the season and after losing 19-14 to the eventual conference champions last season, this is a big game on the schedule. Central Florida has already lost more games than last season in a 1-2 start although both losses came against quality teams away from home.

UCF has had a lot of time to prepare for this game in what may prove to be a critical game to turn the season around for a program that has been very successful in now 11 seasons under George O’Leary. Both Houston wins have come against FCS foes, but the Knights have struggled this season and the strong run defense for UCF may not be a huge factor in this matchup given Houston’s tendency to pass. Opponents have converted over 50 percent of third down plays vs. UCF this season which is a concern for a defense-oriented squad. Central Florida is 11-6 ATS as a single-digit road underdog since 2005, but Houston is 19-9-1 ATS as a home favorite since 2008.

Miles: Freshman QB to start vs. Auburn

September 29, 2014

BATON ROUGE, La. (AP) - LSU coach Les Miles has announced that true freshman Brandon Harris will start at quarterback against Auburn on Saturday.

The coach said Monday, ''It stands to reason that (Harris) will get the first snaps in the next game. He has done the things we have asked him to do. He has made quality decisions with the ball.''

Anthony Jennings had started the first five games for 15th-ranked LSU (4-1). The Tigers' lone defeat came against Mississippi State in which Jennings completed 13 of 26 passes for 157 yards. He left the game in the fourth quarter with LSU trailing 34-16.

Miles says Harris has some ''ad-lib to his game which is very, very positive.'' Miles said the freshman can extend a play, ''so really good things can happen.''

NCAAF

Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 6

Thursday's games

Appalachian State trailed Southern Miss 20-14 last week, scored tying TD with 0:06 left, then had PAT blocked and lost 21-20, even though ASU outgained Southern Miss by 66 yards. ASU beat Eagles last three years, by 7-3-21 points- they won three of last four visits here. Eagles are pretty good, losing to NC State/Ga Tech on road by combined total of five points- they won 28-6 at South Alabama last week, even though they only completed six passes the whole game.

Oklahoma State doesn't play a road game until October 11, because they lost 7 starters on both sides of ball; OSU lost 37-31 to Florida State on a neutral field, so they're pretty good- they're 24-9 in last 33 games as a home favorite. Cowboys won last five games with Texas Tech, scoring 59 ppg in last three meetings, winning by 18-38-60 points. Tech failed to cover its last four visits here. Red Raiders gave up 438 rushing yards in last game, a 49-28 home loss to Arkansas- it was so bad they fired their defensive coordinator, saying he coached under the influence. Really.

Arizona State is 2-3 in last five games with UCLA; last three series tilts were decided by total of 8 points. Sun Devils lost QB Kelly; major step down to backup Bercovici, who threw four passes LY, is 9-17 this year. ASU won easily at New Mexico/Colorado, but they have to scale back their offense bigtime now. Bruins gutted out 20-17 win at Texas behind backup QB Neuheisel; check Hundley's (elbow) status for this. There is a big dropoff for them if Hundley sits, but not as much as ASU has. UCLA lost four of last six visits here; they're 5-2 as road underdogs in Mora era. Sun Devils are 9-4 as home favorites under Graham.

Friday's games

Middle Tennessee has a lousy defense; they're 1-2 vs I-A teams-- they allowed 718 yards in 50-47 OT win over Western Kentucky, 260+ yards on ground in each of two losses, 35-24 at Minnesota, 36-17 at Memphis. Old Dominion passed for 430 yards in 45-42 win at Rice last week, their first I-A road win; Monarchs lost 46-34 at NC State, have senior QB with 25 starts. MTSU has three new starters on OL and soph QB, so they're rebuilding some; they're 1-5 in last six games as a road dog.

Fresno State lost first three I-A games this year, allowing 55.3 ppg; they beat a I-AA team last week. Bulldogs (-33) gained 822 yards in a 69-28 drubbing of New Mexico LY, year after they beat Lobos 49-32 (-15) here. Bulldogs threw ball for 954 yards in the two games; they're 10-4-1 in last 15 games as a favorite on road, 5-2-1 under DeRuyter. Lobos are 1-2, allowing 753 rushing yards in two losses, before 38-35 rivalry win last week over New Mexico State- they're giving up 41.3 ppg.

Saturday's games

Top games of week

Michigan lost at home to Utah last week; attendance os down, Hoke is on the hot seat. Wolverines won/covered last six games with Minnesota, with last five series wins by 22+ points, but they're -10 in turnovers this year, scoring 0-10 points in two losses. Gophers ran ball for 284-380 in wins over I-A cupcakes, lost only road game 30-7 at TCU, running for 99- they completed less than half their passes in last three games.

Iowa won six of last eight games with Purdue; favorites covered four of last six in series, six of last seven at Ross-Ade Stadium. Hawkeyes won 38-14/31-21 in last two visits here; all three of their I-A games this year were decided by 4 or less points (dogs 3-0 vs spread). Boilers allowed 30+ points in all three I-A games, losing 38-17 to Central Michigan, who later lost to Kansas. Purdue is 2-6 in last eight games as a home dog.

Penn State won six in row, 10 of last 12 vs Northwestern, covering last five in series; Wildcats are 13-6 in last 19 games as road dog, but lost last three visits here, by 11-14-26 points. Lions covered last four series tilts when favored by 10+ points. NW lost by 7-8 points in only I-A games this year. Penn State is 10-4 as home favorite in post-Paterno era, with home wins this year by 18-41 points- they've allowed total of 20 points in their last three games.

Since 2004, Colorado is 12-29 as road dogs, 2-3 under MacIntyre, who is good coach but it takes time to build program. Home team covered last three Colorado-Cal games- Buffs lost 52-7 in last visit here, in '10. Cal somehow blew 45-30 lead with 4:00 left at Arizona last week, giving up 36 4th quarter points. Bears won opener at Northwestern, had 3-0 start in their grasp last week, but lost; they're 0-4 in last four games as home favorites- they're 5-14 vs spread in last 19 Pac-12 games.

Vanderbilt ran two kicks back for TDs vs South Carolina last week, so Spurrier is coaching special teams this week. Gamecocks won last two games with Missouri 31-10/27-24; they're 13-10 as home favorite, 0-2 this year- dogs covered all four of their '14 games. Missouri lost 31-27 at home to Indiana last week, giving up 241 rushing yards. Tigers covered seven of last nine as a road dog, 10 of last 13 when coming off a loss.

Western Kentucky held Navy to 86 rushing yards in 19-7 loss LY, first win in three series games for WKU, which lost both road games in 2014, despite scoring 34-47 points. Hilltoppers gave up 323 rushing yards in OT loss at Middle Tennessee; they're 7-3 in last 10 games as a road dog, but 0-2 this year. Navy lost home opener to Rutgers last week, rivalry game with Air Force is next week; they're 13-23 as home fave since '04.

Notre Dame won first three games by 16+ points; they've got a revenge game with Stanford next week. Irish are 5-5 vs spread on neutral fields in Kelly era. Syracuse lost by two TDs at home to Maryland last week, despite outgaining Terps 589-369- they needed OT to beat Villanova, a I-AA team- they've covered last five games on a neutral field, are 3-4 as underdog under Shafer. ACC teams covered six of eight as an underdog out of conference.

Texas A&M beat Arkansas 58-10/45-33 last two years, after losing three in row to Hogs before that; Aggies scored 49.3 ppg in its three I-A wins, one of which was at South Carolina. Arkansas scored 101 points in wins last two weeks, running ball for 438-212 yards; they are 3-9 in their last 12 games as a road underdog, 2-4 under Bielema. Over last decade, A&M is 2-10 vs spread on neutral fields, 1-2 under Sumlin- they're 7-10 as a favorite in Sumlin era.

Oregon State lost seven visits to USC (3-4 vs spread); underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in last seven series games- Beavers upset USC couple times in Corvallis. Trojans are 16-9 vs spread in game following last 25 losses; they gave up 452 rushing yards in last game, loss at BC. Oregon State has senior QB with 34 starts; they've covered last seven games as a road underdog. USC covered 11 of last 17 games as a home favorite- they're starting three sophomores on offensive line.

Stanford won five of last six games vs Washington, with last two decided by total of 7 points; Cardinal won three of last four visits here, losing in last visit here, 17-13. Huskies held Stanford under 280 total yards in last two meetings. Cardinal is 14-5 in last 19 games as road favorite, 10-4 in Shaw era; they're visiting Notre Dame, better not overlook Pac-12 rival that is 8-5 vs spread in last 13 games as home dog. Wary of Washington defense that gave up 52 points to I-AA Wastern Washington.

17-point spread is the biggest in Georgia-Tennessee rivalry in at least 35 years; Dawgs won last four series games, last three by 8 or less points. Vols lost last three visits between hedges by 7-27-12 points, they're 4-1 vs spread in last five visits here, 3-9 in last 12 games as road dog, 10-16 in game following a loss. Georgia is 15-11 as home favorite, scoring 111 points in pair of home wins this year- they gave up 59 points in splitting rivalry games with Clemson/South Carolina.

Duke (+3.5) beat Miami 48-30 LY, ending 8-game series skid; they're 3-0 in last three games as road underdog, 4-0 this season vs cupcakes, scoring average of 43.5 ppg. Miami is 8-9 as home favorite under Golden- they lost 41-31 at Nebraska last week, giving up 343 rushing yards. Duke lost last four visits here (2-2 vs spread) with all four losses by 10+ points. Miami is 8-5 vs spread in game following a loss, 0-3 in last three. Duke is 10-2-1 vs spread in game following last 13 wins.

Boise State beat Air Force 42-20/37-26 in last two meetings, gaining 956 total yards; Broncos are 23-9 in last 32 games as home favorite covering at UConn in only true road game this year. Boise doesn't have a senior starting on OL. Air Force has rivalry game with Navy on deck; they've failed to cover last four tries as a home dog. Falcons threw ball 47 times in last two games, lot for them- they've allowed 696 passing yards in last two games, losing 17-13 at Wyoming, winning 48-38 at Georgia State.

Notes on rest of the card

-- Michigan State is 4-10 in last 14 games as home favorite; their first league game is next week, when Nebraska visits. Mountain West teams are 3-10 as non-conference road dogs.

-- Maryland won at Syracuse last week, despite being outgained by 220 yards. Under Edsall, Terps are 9-13 vs spread in conference games.

-- Baylor beat Iowa State 71-7 in Waco LY, but lost last two visits here, both by 14 points. Cyclones are 9-10-1 as home dog under Rhoads.

-- Wisconsin opens conference play next week, could be looking ahead. South Florida covered 14 of last 20 games as a road underdog.

-- Virginia is 2-8-3 in last 13 games as a home favorite. MAC teams are 8-11 as road underdogs in non-conference games.

-- Virginia Tech got upset in each of its last two home games. Western Michigan is 9-7 in last 16 games as a road dog; they scored 34-45 in two I-A road games this season.

-- Underdogs covered last six Temple-UConn games, winning last three in series SU.

-- Akron is 7-4 as road underdogs under Bowden. Pitt got upset at home by Iowa last week, despite outgaining Hawkeyes by 124 yards.

-- Rutgers covered all three I-A games this year, all as dogs in games that were decided by 7 or less points- they're 6-11 as favorites under Flood.

-- Toledo won its last four games with Central Michigan, all by 11+, as favorites covered five of last six series games.

-- Vanderbilt won its last three games with Kentucky by combined score of 100-14; favorites covered seven of last eight series games.

-- Wake Forest has 3rd-youngest team in country; they lost both road games this season, 17-10 (+2) at ULM, 36-24 (+14) at Utah State.

-- Boston College had 452 rushing yards in upset of USC couple weeks ago. Colorado State is 4-6 as a road underdog under McElwain.

-- Favorites covered five of last six Miami-Buffalo games; Bulls crushed Miami 44-7 LY, running ball for 311 yards.

-- Texas State gave up 954 total yards, 571 on ground in losses by 14-7 points to Illinois/Navy. Sun Belt road underdogs are 8-4 vs spread.

-- UTEP has run ball for 277+ yards in all three games, with only loss at Texas Tech 30-26- they beat both New Mexico schools, rivalry games.

-- Louisiana Tech won two of three I-A road games to open season, then lost home opener to I-AA team. Auburn won its two home games by 24-46 points; they had tough win last week, play LSU next week.

-- Bowling Green won its last two games with UMass 28-7/24-0, but the Falcons allowed 56.3 ppg in their three I-A games this season.

-- SMU is toast for this year, having already fired its coach, but they are 6-2 vs spread in last eight games vs TCU, its local rival.

-- Favorites covered three of last four Rice-Southern Miss games, with average total of 69.5. Owls beat USM 44-17 last year, despite being outgained by two yards for the game.

-- North Carolina gave up 70 points at East Carolina last week; they lost last three visits to Death Valley, by 21-45-8 points. Clemson is starting a true freshman QB this week.

-- Texas has already thrown nine kids off team this year and had starting QB quit (concussions); they won last 10 games vs Kansas, going 7-3 vs spread in those games.

-- Winston is back for Florida State, which lost last two visits to Raleigh, in series where three of last five games were decided by 4 or less points.

-- South Alabama scored total of nine points in losing last two games; it allowed 623 rushing yards in those games. Idaho is 0-3 despite scoring an average of 29.3 ppg.

-- Cincinnati visits Ohio State with a heavy heart; one of their players died in a motorcycle accident this week. Teams last met in 2006.

-- UAB (-6.5) won 27-24 at FIU last year, outrushing Panthers 217-94. Blazers lost 47-34 at Miss State, gaining 548 yards- impressive.

-- Ole Miss won last five games with Memphis (3-1-1 vs spread); this is little bit of local rivalry. Memphis lost 42-35 at UCLA; in no way are they a pushover anymore.

-- FAU had 19-17 lead and ball on first down with 2:09 left last week vs Wyoming; they fumbled on first down, gave up 88-yard pass next play and lost 20-19 in shocking fashion. tough game to bounce back from.

-- UL-Monroe won its last three games with Troy by 14-28-12 points. Warhawks won their first two home games, by seven points each.

-- Home side covered last three Washington State-Utah games; Coogs got beat 49-6 in last visit here. Wazzu was outgained 501-499 in 38-31 loss to Oregon last week- they played their hearts out.

-- LSU lost at home to Miss State last week, New Mexico State lost by 3 to rival New Mexico. Tigers are trying to find a consistent QB.

-- Nebraska gained 521 yards in 39-19 win (-7.5) over Illinois LY; Illini gave up 34 points to WKU, 35 to Texas State- this could get ugly.

Tech Trends - Week 6

October 1, 2014

Thursday, October

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


FAU at FIU
FIU has covered last three in Shula Bowl, but FAU has covered 20 of its last 26 on board and is 7-2 vs. spread last nine away.

FAU, based on team trends.


UCF at HOUSTON
UCF was 4-0 as dog LY but 0-1 in role in 2014. Cougs 13-6 as home chalk since 2011 (1-1 TY).

Slight to UH, based on extended home chalk marks.


ARIZONA at OREGON
Revenge for Ducks after losing 42-16 at Tucson LY. Ducks had won and covered previous two meetings by 105-31 combined score. Oregon only 2-8 vs. line last ten reg.-season games. But Rodriguez only 2-7 vs. spread last nine in reg. season and 0-3 as road dog LY.

Slight to UA, based on team trends.


Friday, October 3

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


LOUISVILLE at SYRACUSE
Cards just 4-6-1 as visiting chalk since 2012.

Slight to Cuse, based on team trends.


SAN DIEGO STATE at FRESNO STATE
FSU now 6-12-1 last 18 on board since late 2012. SDSU 8-4 vs. spread last 12 away from Qualcomm.

SDSU, based on team trends.


UTAH STATE at BYU
Ags had covered five straight in series prior to LY's 31-14 loss at Logan . Cougs no covers first two at home TY after 14-8 mark in role previous four seasons. Utags no covers first four on board TY, and just 1-5 as dog for Matt Wells.

Slight to BYU, based on recent trends


Saturday, October

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


VANDERBILT at GEORGIA
Dores slaughtered last two in Athens (91-3 combined score). Richt has now won and covered big last three as home chalk after dropping 8 of previous 12 in role.

Georgia, based on team trends.


WAKE FOREST at FLORIDA STATE
Noles now 0-4 vs. line TY, Wake has covered last three for Clawson. But Noles have won last two vs. Deacs by combined 111-3 score. FSU 4-1 vs. line last five years in series after losing three straight to Grobe 2006-08.

Slight to FSU, based on recent series trends.


MIAMI-FLA. At GEORGIA TECH
This has been a bad matchup lately for GT, which has lost and failed to cover last five years vs. Canes. Jackets 0-2 as home chalk TY.

Miami, based on series trends.


NORTH TEXAS at INDIANA
UNT 13-5 last 18 vs. number, and 7-3 last 10 vs. spread away from Denton. Even after Mizzou win, IU just 6-13 vs. spread last 19 on board, and 3-7 last 10 as home chalk.

UNT, based on team trends.


PURDUE at ILLINOIS
Last three decided by 7 or fewer, and home team has covered each. But Illini 1-2 as home chalk TY and Beckman 4-7 laying points since 2012. Hazell 6-10 vs. line since LY but has split six spread decisions as dog away from home.

Slight to Purdue, based on Illini Beckman chalk woes.


OHIO STATE at MARYLAND
Bucks just 3-6 last 9 on board since late 2013 (though 2-1 TY). Meyer 5-4 as road chalk with Buckeyes. Edsall 6-4 vs. line last 10 at College Park, 6-3 last 8 as dog.

Maryland, based on team trends.


SMU at EAST CAROLINA
Ponies 0-4 SU and vs. line in terrible 2014 break from gate. Ruffin McNeill has covered five straight and 8 of last 9 since late LY, and ECU 8-4 last 12 as home chalk.

ECU, based on recent trends.


MEMPHIS at CINCINNATI
Tigers 3-1 vs. line early in 2014. Justin Fuente also 5-2 last seven as road dog.

Memphis, based on recent trends.


PITT at VIRGINIA
Cavs 5-0 vs. line in 2014, including 4-0 at home. Pitt 1-5 vs. spread as visitor since 2013.

Slight to Virginia, based on team trends.


OHIO at CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Solich 1-5 vs. spread last six away from Athens, and 3-11 last 14 vs. number away from Peden Stadium.

Slight to CMU, based on recent Solich road woes.


KANSAS at WEST VIRGINIA
Revenge for WVU after losing to Weis LY. Weis just 10-18 vs. line since 2012 with KU, 4-8 as road dog. Mounties 3-1 vs. line TY for Holgorsen.

WVU, based on KU negatives.


TOLEDO at WESTERN MICHIGAN
Broncs surprising 4-0 vs. line in early 2014. Rockets, however, have won and covered big last two vs. WMU, which was 0-4 as home dog in 2013.

Slight to Toledo, based on recent series trends.


MARSHALL at OLD DOMINION
Herd 2-6 last eight as visiting chalk since LY but did win and cover handily at Akron last chance in role. Herd 12-6 last 18 on board.

Marshall, based on team trends.


VIRGINIA TECH at NORTH CAROLINA
UNC no covers first four TY but Beamer 13-30-2 vs. number since late 2010. If Beamer chalk note 0-6 mark laying points as visitor since 2012. Fedora was 10-4 vs. line at Chapel Hill past two seasons .

UNC, based on extended trends.


KENT STATE at NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Flashes no covers first four in 2014, now 5-11 vs. line for Paul Haynes since LY (2-2 as DD dog).

NIU, based on Kent State negatives.


WISCONSIN at NORTHWESTERN
Pat Fitz 2-12 last 14 on board dating to mid 2013 but off rousing Penn State win. Cats 2-5 last seven as Evanston dog. Badgers 11-6 vs. line for Gary Andersen, whose Utag and Badger teams are 21-9 vs. line since 2012.

Wisconsin, based on team trends.


UMASS at MIAMI-OHIO
RedHawks have lost 21 in a row SU so tough tech argument to make for Miami, though a bit better 4-5-1 vs. line last 10 at Oxford. Mass only 1-16 SU its last 16 and 5-10 as visiting dog since 2012 (1-1 TY).

Slight to Miami, based on Mass negatives.


SOUTH ALABAMA at APP STATE
USA 8-2 vs. spread last eight on road and 12-5 last 17 vs. number away from Mobile.

USA, based on road marks.


SOUTH CAROLINA at KENTUCKY
Spurrier only 1-4 vs. line early in 2014, and SC 1-4-1 last six as visiting chalk. UK 3-1-1 vs. spread last five in series.

Kentucky, based on team trends.


BALL STATE at ARMY
Ball has won last three and covered last four in series. Lembo 9-3 vs. line last 12 as visitor.

Ball, based on series trends.


BUFFALO at BOWLING GREEN
BGSU has won and covered last three meetings, and Falcs now 13-6 last 19 vs. points at home (2-0 TY for Dino).

BGSU, based on series and team trends.


EASTERN MICHIGAN at AKRON
EMU 1-3 vs. line TY, now 7-21 vs. spread since 2012, 4-12 last 16 as road dog.

Akron, based on EMU negatives.


TEXAS TECH at KANSAS STATE
TT now 1-8 vs. line last nine reg.-season games after OSU cover. Snyder has won and covered last three years vs. Red Raiders and is 28-14 vs. spread since 2011.

K-State, based on team and series trends.


HAWAII at RICE
In WAC days, the Kenny Hatfield Owls covered all six meetings from 1999-2004. Rice 15-9-1 last 25 vs. spread at home, Hawaii 5-7 last 12 vs. line on mainland for Norm Chow.

Rice, based on team trends.


TULSA at COLORADO STATE
Tulsa 0-4 vs. line as road dog since 2013. CSU on 16-5 spread run since mid 2012 and 7-2 last 9 as Fort Collins chalk.

CSU, based on team trends.


GEORGIA STATE at UL-LAFAYETTE
GSU 5-1 as road dog since 2013, ULL 1-8 vs. line last nine reg.-season games.

GSU, based on team trends.


STANFORD at NOTRE DAME
If Shaw is a dog note 5-0-1 spread mark in role since 2011. Tree 16-6 vs. spread as visitor since 2010.

Stanford, especially if dog, based on team trends.


ARIZONA STATE at SOUTHERN CAL
ASU put 62 on SC in 2013, tying most-ever points allowed by Trojans (which was 62 previous year vs. Oregon). Graham ran up 53-24 score on Sark's UW last year, too. But Sun Devils just 1-6 as dog under Graham, and Trojans 10-6 as Coliseum chalk since 2011.

SC, based on team trends.


LSU at AUBURN
Auburn has covered the last two meetings at Jordan-Hare, and Malzahn 13-2 last 15 vs. spread. Les Miles 4-2 last six as dog.

Auburn, based on team trends.


NAVY at AIR FORCE
Mids 10-1 SU, 9-1-1 last 11 vs. line in series. Navy 7-2 vs. spread last nine away from Annapolis and 12-6 overall vs. number since 2013. Force 1-4 as home dog since LY.

Navy, based on series trends.


OKLAHOMA at TCU...
TCU had been 5-12 vs. line as host past three seasons before opening two wins TY. OU has now covered five straight away from Norman.

OU, based on recent Sooner road mark.


FLORIDA at TENNESSEE
If Vols chalk note 3-9 mark at home in role since 2012 (2-4 for Butch). But Muschamp 2-5 vs. line last seven away from home.

UT, based on recent Gator road mark.


BAYLOR at TEXAS
Briles 29-13 overall vs. line since 2011. Bears just 5-10 vs. mark as visitor that span, but have covered last 4 vs. Texas. Charlie Strong teams 9-1 as dog since 2011.

Baylor, based on team and series trends.


IOWA STATE at OKLAHOMA STATE
OSU has won and covered handily the past two seasons vs. ISU since the big Cyclone upset in 2011. Cowboys 1-2 as home chalk TY after Texas Tech but were 23-9 in role since 2008 in role entering this season.

OSU, based on team trends.


ALABAMA at OLE MISS
Road team had covered five straight in series prior to LY's Bama 25-0 win. Hugh Freeze 7-4 as dog with Rebs and he is now 31-11 vs. spread since 2011 with Ark State and Rebs. Nick just 1-5 last six as chalk away from home.

Ole Miss, based on Hugh Freeze marks.


TEXAS A&M at MISSISSIPPI STATE
Bulldogs now 8-1 vs. line last 9 on board since late 2013. MSU 14-8 vs. line at Starkville since 2011. Ags were 0-4 vs. spread as visitor in 2013.

MSU, based on recent trends.


UTAH at UCLA
Bruins 0-1 vs. line at home TY but 41-22 vs. spread at Rose Bowl since early 2004.

UCLA, based on extended home trends.


UTEP at LA TECH
Skip 4-1 v. line in 2014. UTEP lost at home to Skip LY and is 0-7 as visiting dog since 2013.

La Tech, based on team trends.


SOUTHERN MISS at MTSU
USM 4-11 as road dog since 2012 (3-6 for Monken since LY). MTSU now 4-1 vs. line TY after ODU win and 8-4 since 2012 vs. line at Murfreesboro.

MTSU, based on team trends.


OREGON STATE at COLORADO
OSU 1-3 as visiting chalk since since 2012. CU 6-2 vs. spread at Boulder since LY for MacIntyre (2-0 TY).

Slight to Colorado, based on team trends.


CAL at WASHINGTON STATE
Cougs had lost 8 in a row SU vs. Bears prior to 44-22 win LY at Berkeley. Wazzu 4-0 as Pullman chalk since 2013. Leach 13-6 last 19 on board since late 2012.

Slight to WSU, based on team trends.


IDAHO at TEXAS STATE
Vandals have covered first two away TY (road team 4-0 vs. spread in Idaho games TY).

Slight to Idaho, based on recent trends.


MICHIGAN at RUTGERS
Rutgers 3-6 last 9 as chalk. But Brady Hoke 2-5 as road dog since 2012, 3-7-1 as dog same span.

Rutgers, based on recent trends.


NEW MEXICO at UTSA
Davie 0-4 vs. line TY after Fresno loss and now 7-14 against line last 21 on board since mid 2012. Lobos, however, were 4-2 as road dog LY.

UTSA, based on team trends.


ULM at ARKANSAS STATE
Ark State has won and covered last four meetings.

Ark State, based on series trends.


NC STATE at CLEMSON
Pack has covered last four meetings though won only one of those outright. Clemson, however, 6-2 last eight as ACC home chalk. Pack has covered last three on board after dropping seven straight vs. line for Doeren.

NCS, based on series trends.


UAB at WESTERN KENTUCKY
Blazers 1-5 as away dog LY but 1-0 in role for new HC Clark in 2014.

WKU, based on extended team trends.


NEBRASKA at MICHIGAN STATE
Road team has won and covered last two years in series. Bo Pelini 3-1 as dog LY and has covered 5 of last six away from Lincoln.

Slight to Nebraska, based on team trends.


GEORGIA SOUTHERN at NEW MEXICO STATE
GSU a revelation now 5-0 vs. line this season after App State win!

GSU, based on current trends.


UNLV at SAN JOSE STATE
Rebs now 8-21 vs. spread away since late 2009.

SJSU, based on UNLV road woes.


BOISE STATE at NEVADA
Nevada has covered last five and 6 of last 7 vs. Boise. Pack has also covered last four and five of last six as dog since late 2013, and 6-1 as home dog since 2010.

Slight to Nevada, based on series trends.