[h=1]Most likely playoff teams to win out[/h][h=3]Who can get through conference play unblemished?[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Mel Kiper Jr.[/FONT] and [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Todd McShay[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
[h=3]Which College Football Playoff contender is the best bet to remain undefeated?[/h]Mel Kiper: It's not because they've been the most impressive team, but my bet would be on the Florida State Seminoles. Three reasons:
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1. They'll get better where they've been bad. I'm talking about a defense that struggled against both Oklahoma State and North Carolina State (72 points allowed), and was just good enough against Clemson. The Noles are just 67th nationally in yards per play allowed, and I think it's fair to say this unit is nowhere near where last year's was, despite the presence of plenty of NFL prospects. But remember this: Florida State has had 11 defensive players drafted over the past two seasons, so while they have talent, there's plenty of relative inexperience. Combine that with a new defensive coordinator, and it was probably totally reasonable to imagine this group suffering through growing pains. They'll get better.
2. They can still score at will -- run or pass. The Florida State offense hasn't even looked its best, but it's going to be fine. The Noles have beaten three bowl teams while averaging 6.6 yards per play, and the only reason they're 28th nationally at this point is because so many teams have piled up blowout stats. What you like about FSU's offense is they can beat you in the run game behind a great offensive line and Karlos Williams, or they can let Jameis Winstonhandle it. Despite the drama, the offense isn't an issue.
3. Nobody's in the way. This is the biggest reason, really. FSU has a single ranked team remaining on the schedule, and that's Notre Dame, which will have to travel to Tallahassee. And we don't really know yet what the Irish are capable of -- they could be exposed by Stanford next week. After that, FSU should be a 10-plus point favorite every week, including their regular-season finale against Florida.
Todd McShay: Florida State is a logical choice here, Mel, as the Seminoles definitely have the easiest road of the legitimate playoff contenders from the Power 5 conferences. But this FSU team has holes; the defense is talented but its linebackers are inexperienced, and the Seminoles' running game is concerning to me as well.
So I'm going with the Oklahoma Sooners for this one. They have a slightly more difficult path, but I just think they are the more complete football team overall, with no glaring holes. I went into this in much greater detail ahead of the Sooners' matchup with Tennessee, but the abbreviated version is this:
• Trevor Knight is a good quarterback and getting better. While he might not be ready just yet to lead his team to a come-from-behind win in obvious passing situations, I think he will be by the end of the season. His touch and ball placement on the shorter, quick-hitting throws in this offense are essential to its success, he has flashed good ability as a downfield passer, and his intangibles are excellent.
• The running game could be one of the best in the country by the end of the season, with a massive, experienced offensive line (headlined by a pair of future NFL tackles in Tyrus Thompson and Daryl Williams) and a stable of talented running backs (Keith Ford, Alex Rossand 5-11, 243-pound freshman Samaje Perine). Knight is a threat with his legs as well.
• The defense is back to having the elite-level talent it did during the early- and mid-2000s. Nose tackle Jordan Phillips possesses outstanding athleticism for a man who is 6-6 and 334 pounds, and not only can he occupy blockers, but he is able to shed blocks and pursue and make plays. LB Eric Striker wreaks havoc as an undersized pass-rusher off the edge, and the secondary reminds me of the Seahawks' for its size, attitude and physicality.
Oklahoma's schedule is tougher than FSU's, but it's still manageable. The Sooners have only three road games left: This week at TCU, at Iowa State on Nov. 1 and at Texas Tech on Nov. 15 (they play Texas at a neutral location in Dallas on Oct. 11). They are likely to be favored in each of their remaining games, and remember, the Big 12 doesn't have a conference championship game, so that's one less hurdle for them to get over at the end of the regular season.
Greene has below-average size for the wide receiver position at the next level, but he is a sudden athlete with the quickness to both beat press coverage off the line and separate from defensive backs in and out of breaks.In the Seminoles' comeback win over NC State on Saturday, he exploited the Wolfpack's inferior cornerbacks all game (11 catches, 125 yards, one touchdown). The handful of times in which NC State played tight man coverage, he was able to separate easily, and when NC State backed off, it created a game of simple pitch-and-catch between him and Winston. Greene's ability to quickly transition upfield after the catch and rack up extra yards was a big part of the Noles' success on offense.
He currently carries a second-round grade from us. Jaguars WR Marqise Lee is a decent NFL comparison for him.
Kiper: Shaq Thompson, OLB, Washington Huskies
I use "OLB" as his position in the NFL, and mention it because Thompson could play a handful of positions given his athletic abilities. On Saturday against Stanford he was again all over the place on defense, causing a pair of fumbles, getting into the backfield to make a play, knocking down a pass. A high school sprinter who initially profiled as a safety who could also take some carries at running back (he was also a star RB in high school), I think Thompson is going to be best as a disruptive pass-rusher who also can drop and play in space. He's simply a playmaker, and a likely first-round pick when he's ready.
He'd yet to play more than a few plays for the Chippewas in 2014 because of a nagging knee injury, but Davis reminded everybody what he's capable of Saturday, torching Toledo for six catches and 128 yards. He has been a big-play constant for the Chips, having averaged 18 and 20 yards per catch over the past two seasons, respectively, and it looks as if we'll see more of that now that he's healthy. He has good size at almost 6-2 and about 190 pounds, and has strong hands and the ability to use his size to beat defenders for the ball, and speed to run away. I'd put an early third-day grade on him at this stage.
McShay: Jacoby Brissett, QB, North Carolina State Wolfpack
As I said during Saturday's broadcast, Brissett has a lot of Ben Roethlisberger to his game in terms of his poise, pocket presence and how difficult he is for defenders to bring down both in the pocket and when he takes off running (he's 6-4, 230 pounds). He needs to be quicker in getting from one progression to the next, but I think he sees the entire field well and has good vision as a runner.
There were 11 NFL teams represented at the game, and despite the losing effort, Brissett made a very positive impression. He's just a junior and is still a work in progress, but I think he has the physical tools to one day develop into an NFL QB. His TD pass in the first half, in which he nearly had his helmet ripped off and then warded off another sack attempt along the right sideline, was one of the more impressive individual efforts I've seen in a long time.
This game matches up two of the most dangerous offenses in the country. I've been a believer in the Aggies from the start, and at 5-0 they now rank No. 2 overall in ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). But their daunting schedule continues with this trip to Starkville, and they're coming off of a come-from-behind, 35-28 win over Arkansas in which QB Kenny Hill threw three touchdowns in the fourth quarter and overtime. This could be a tough spot for them. The quarterback battle is the most intriguing aspect of this game for me. Hill and Dak Prescott, who can cause defenses a lot of problems because of his dual-threat running and passing ability, both rank in the top 10 in Total QBR.
Kiper: Does Bama's secondary get exposed at Ole Miss?
The Tide got the job done against Florida, but the one time they've faced a team that had a decent passing attack, they looked extremely vulnerable against West Virginia. They were lucky the Mountaineers dropped some passes in that game, otherwise it could have come down to the wire. Bo Wallace needs a statement game at QB for Ole Miss, and the program has enough talent to compete with Nick Saban's team. Safety Landon Collins is special, but outside of him there are question marks throughout the Alabama secondary. Will they continue to improve, or is this where they get exposed? We'll see.
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Mel Kiper Jr.[/FONT] and [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Todd McShay[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
[h=3]Which College Football Playoff contender is the best bet to remain undefeated?[/h]Mel Kiper: It's not because they've been the most impressive team, but my bet would be on the Florida State Seminoles. Three reasons:
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1. They'll get better where they've been bad. I'm talking about a defense that struggled against both Oklahoma State and North Carolina State (72 points allowed), and was just good enough against Clemson. The Noles are just 67th nationally in yards per play allowed, and I think it's fair to say this unit is nowhere near where last year's was, despite the presence of plenty of NFL prospects. But remember this: Florida State has had 11 defensive players drafted over the past two seasons, so while they have talent, there's plenty of relative inexperience. Combine that with a new defensive coordinator, and it was probably totally reasonable to imagine this group suffering through growing pains. They'll get better.
2. They can still score at will -- run or pass. The Florida State offense hasn't even looked its best, but it's going to be fine. The Noles have beaten three bowl teams while averaging 6.6 yards per play, and the only reason they're 28th nationally at this point is because so many teams have piled up blowout stats. What you like about FSU's offense is they can beat you in the run game behind a great offensive line and Karlos Williams, or they can let Jameis Winstonhandle it. Despite the drama, the offense isn't an issue.
3. Nobody's in the way. This is the biggest reason, really. FSU has a single ranked team remaining on the schedule, and that's Notre Dame, which will have to travel to Tallahassee. And we don't really know yet what the Irish are capable of -- they could be exposed by Stanford next week. After that, FSU should be a 10-plus point favorite every week, including their regular-season finale against Florida.
Todd McShay: Florida State is a logical choice here, Mel, as the Seminoles definitely have the easiest road of the legitimate playoff contenders from the Power 5 conferences. But this FSU team has holes; the defense is talented but its linebackers are inexperienced, and the Seminoles' running game is concerning to me as well.
So I'm going with the Oklahoma Sooners for this one. They have a slightly more difficult path, but I just think they are the more complete football team overall, with no glaring holes. I went into this in much greater detail ahead of the Sooners' matchup with Tennessee, but the abbreviated version is this:
• Trevor Knight is a good quarterback and getting better. While he might not be ready just yet to lead his team to a come-from-behind win in obvious passing situations, I think he will be by the end of the season. His touch and ball placement on the shorter, quick-hitting throws in this offense are essential to its success, he has flashed good ability as a downfield passer, and his intangibles are excellent.
• The running game could be one of the best in the country by the end of the season, with a massive, experienced offensive line (headlined by a pair of future NFL tackles in Tyrus Thompson and Daryl Williams) and a stable of talented running backs (Keith Ford, Alex Rossand 5-11, 243-pound freshman Samaje Perine). Knight is a threat with his legs as well.
• The defense is back to having the elite-level talent it did during the early- and mid-2000s. Nose tackle Jordan Phillips possesses outstanding athleticism for a man who is 6-6 and 334 pounds, and not only can he occupy blockers, but he is able to shed blocks and pursue and make plays. LB Eric Striker wreaks havoc as an undersized pass-rusher off the edge, and the secondary reminds me of the Seahawks' for its size, attitude and physicality.
Oklahoma's schedule is tougher than FSU's, but it's still manageable. The Sooners have only three road games left: This week at TCU, at Iowa State on Nov. 1 and at Texas Tech on Nov. 15 (they play Texas at a neutral location in Dallas on Oct. 11). They are likely to be favored in each of their remaining games, and remember, the Big 12 doesn't have a conference championship game, so that's one less hurdle for them to get over at the end of the regular season.
[h=3]On the rise[/h]McShay: Rashad Greene, WR, Florida State SeminolesGreene has below-average size for the wide receiver position at the next level, but he is a sudden athlete with the quickness to both beat press coverage off the line and separate from defensive backs in and out of breaks.In the Seminoles' comeback win over NC State on Saturday, he exploited the Wolfpack's inferior cornerbacks all game (11 catches, 125 yards, one touchdown). The handful of times in which NC State played tight man coverage, he was able to separate easily, and when NC State backed off, it created a game of simple pitch-and-catch between him and Winston. Greene's ability to quickly transition upfield after the catch and rack up extra yards was a big part of the Noles' success on offense.
He currently carries a second-round grade from us. Jaguars WR Marqise Lee is a decent NFL comparison for him.
Kiper: Shaq Thompson, OLB, Washington Huskies
I use "OLB" as his position in the NFL, and mention it because Thompson could play a handful of positions given his athletic abilities. On Saturday against Stanford he was again all over the place on defense, causing a pair of fumbles, getting into the backfield to make a play, knocking down a pass. A high school sprinter who initially profiled as a safety who could also take some carries at running back (he was also a star RB in high school), I think Thompson is going to be best as a disruptive pass-rusher who also can drop and play in space. He's simply a playmaker, and a likely first-round pick when he's ready.
[h=3]Almost famous[/h]Kiper: Titus Davis, WR, Central Michigan ChippewasHe'd yet to play more than a few plays for the Chippewas in 2014 because of a nagging knee injury, but Davis reminded everybody what he's capable of Saturday, torching Toledo for six catches and 128 yards. He has been a big-play constant for the Chips, having averaged 18 and 20 yards per catch over the past two seasons, respectively, and it looks as if we'll see more of that now that he's healthy. He has good size at almost 6-2 and about 190 pounds, and has strong hands and the ability to use his size to beat defenders for the ball, and speed to run away. I'd put an early third-day grade on him at this stage.
McShay: Jacoby Brissett, QB, North Carolina State Wolfpack
As I said during Saturday's broadcast, Brissett has a lot of Ben Roethlisberger to his game in terms of his poise, pocket presence and how difficult he is for defenders to bring down both in the pocket and when he takes off running (he's 6-4, 230 pounds). He needs to be quicker in getting from one progression to the next, but I think he sees the entire field well and has good vision as a runner.
There were 11 NFL teams represented at the game, and despite the losing effort, Brissett made a very positive impression. He's just a junior and is still a work in progress, but I think he has the physical tools to one day develop into an NFL QB. His TD pass in the first half, in which he nearly had his helmet ripped off and then warded off another sack attempt along the right sideline, was one of the more impressive individual efforts I've seen in a long time.
[h=3]What I'll be watching[/h]McShay: Who will win the Texas A&M-Mississippi State shootout?This game matches up two of the most dangerous offenses in the country. I've been a believer in the Aggies from the start, and at 5-0 they now rank No. 2 overall in ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). But their daunting schedule continues with this trip to Starkville, and they're coming off of a come-from-behind, 35-28 win over Arkansas in which QB Kenny Hill threw three touchdowns in the fourth quarter and overtime. This could be a tough spot for them. The quarterback battle is the most intriguing aspect of this game for me. Hill and Dak Prescott, who can cause defenses a lot of problems because of his dual-threat running and passing ability, both rank in the top 10 in Total QBR.
Kiper: Does Bama's secondary get exposed at Ole Miss?
The Tide got the job done against Florida, but the one time they've faced a team that had a decent passing attack, they looked extremely vulnerable against West Virginia. They were lucky the Mountaineers dropped some passes in that game, otherwise it could have come down to the wire. Bo Wallace needs a statement game at QB for Ole Miss, and the program has enough talent to compete with Nick Saban's team. Safety Landon Collins is special, but outside of him there are question marks throughout the Alabama secondary. Will they continue to improve, or is this where they get exposed? We'll see.
