[h=1]Early Week 5 NFL line moves[/h][h=3]Analyzing Week 5 line moves, plus biggest Week 4 NFL gambling takeaways[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Dave Tuley[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
Every point counts when betting. And sometimes every half point, too.
As the afternoon games were nearing a conclusion on Sunday, I was expecting to see a tweet from someone saying "the points don't matter in the NFL." In gambling circles, that refers to the point spread seemingly not coming into play as often on a Sunday, meaning either the underdog wins outright or the favorite wins by more than the spread. Those who follow me know I'm strictly a dog-or-pass bettor.
Through the first three weeks of the season, only eight of the 48 games ended up where the team that won outright did not cover: four times in Week 1, and two times in each of the past two weeks. That's one out of every six games, or 16.7 percent. In other words, right in neighborhood of the historical average.
Starting with the New York Giants' upset of theWashington Redskins on Thursday night and through the early games on Sunday, five favorites covered and two underdogs, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Detroit Lions (a late 1.5-point underdog), won outright. In other words, the point spread hadn't come into play.
And that looked to be the case in the late games with the San Diego Chargers pulling away to a 33-14 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars to cover as 12.5-point favorites and the Minnesota Vikings knocking off the Atlanta Falcons 41-28 as 5.5-point underdogs.
But then it happened.
The San Francisco 49ers, who trailed the Philadelphia Eagles 21-13 at halftime, rallied to take a 23-21 lead on a 46-yard Phil Dawson field goal in the third quarter and extended it to 26-21 on Dawson's 31-yarder in the fourth.
Suddenly, it mattered to PHI-SF bettors whether they had been able to lay 4.5 points or less with the 49ers or if they had gotten the Eagles plus-5.5 earlier in the week (or at least plus-5 for a push).
The ironic thing is that "five" is considered a dead number in NFL wagering. I've written about it, and for the past two weeks, my boss Chad Millman discussed this concept on his "Behind the Bets" podcast with Boyd Gaming's Bob Scucci.
So, yes, every point matters, even the non-key numbers. Now that we have the reminder that every half point counts, let's look at the opening line moves for Week 5 so we can try to catch those crucial half points to help our overall record, plus some other gambling takeaways from Week 4 that we can use moving forward.
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posts its NFL openers at 4:30 p.m. PDT each Sunday. This is the section where we will note which games are off the board due to injuries (note: the SuperBook usually posts the games involving the teams involved in Sunday and Monday night games, while most books hold off on those). Again, this week there are no such games as the Westgate put up all 15 games on the Week 5 card even with the injuries to rookie QBs Blake Bortles and Teddy Bridgewater. The only other game that some other books kept off the board -- besides those involving Sunday/Monday night teams -- was the Cleveland-Tennessee game with the Titans' uncertain QB situation.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
</center>[h=3]Early Week 5 line moves[/h]Here are the openers from the Westgate SuperBook. We'll look at how we got to those numbers, including a look at the advance lines for Week 5 that they put up last Tuesday as well as where the offshore openers might have differed and how they moved in early betting Sunday afternoon. While the biggest part of winning at football is picking winners, it's just as important to be able to read the market and know when to place your wagers to get the best number, so we'll try to point out which numbers are most likely to move during the week.
Thursday: Vikings at Packers (-9.5): The advance line at the Westgate last Tuesday was Packers minus-8. It re-opened Sunday at Westgate as well as the Wynn and William Hill books at minus-9.5, while offshore giant Pinnacle and BetOnline opted for minus-10. It'll probably fall short of double digits if Bridgewater is indeed ready to play.
Bears at Panthers (-2.5): Offshore books joined the Westgate at Panthers minus-2.5 while the Wynn went with minus-3 (even money). By the end of the night, the offshore books were still at minus-2.5 but with very heavy juice. This line could hover between 2.5 and 3 throughout the week.
[h=4]Week 5 openers[/h](Home team on bottom)
Vikings
Packers -9.5
Bears
Panthers -2.5
Browns
Titans -2
Rams
Eagles -7
Falcons
Giants -2.5 (-3.5)
Buccaneers
Saints -11
Texans
Cowboys -3.5
Bills
Lions -7
Ravens
Colts -3.5
Steelers -6.5
Jaguars
Cardinals
Broncos -7 (-7.5)
Chiefs
49ers -7.5
Jets
Chargers -7
Bengals
Patriots -3 EVEN
Seahawks -6.5 (-7)
Redskins
Note: Number in parentheses is what the line was bet to by the start of the Sunday night game (when the lines for the Patriots' and Chiefs' next games were taken off the board)
Browns at Titans (-2): This was off the board last week at the Westgate due to Jake Locker's injury, and now several books haven't posted a line because the Tennessee QB situation is unclear. Still, the Titans are minus-2 at Westgate and BetOnline with the Greek opening at minus-2.5.
Rams at Eagles (-7): The advance line on this game was Eagles minus-6.5, but it got bet up to 7 last week. That's where the Westgate re-opened it, and most books agreed, though CRIS opened minus-8 but that got bet down to 7, as well.
Falcons at Giants (-2.5): This was the biggest moving line on Sunday night. Last week, this was pick 'em at the Westgate, but after New York's upset of Washington and Atlanta's loss to Minnesota, it got bet to 3.5 right away and later in the night it went to 4. Offshore books opened on the other side of the key number and they also got bet higher as 4 looks like it will be the most common spread here.
Buccaneers at Saints (-11): This was 11.5 last week and inched down after the Bucs' upset of the Steelers. We'll see how much farther it drops after New Orleans' loss at Dallas on Sunday night.
Texans at Cowboys (-3.5): This was more than a field goal before Dallas' Sunday night home win over New Orleans -- and was also bet from minus-4 to minus-4.5 at BetOnline, so this should be adjusted higher come Monday morning.
Bills at Lions (-7): The advance line on this matchup was Lions minus-6.5, so it re-opened a half point higher and it looks like a pretty solid line for the rest of the week.
Ravens at Colts (-3.5): This was 3.5 last week and with both teams winning, it looks like it should stay here; however, some offshore books opened at Colts minus-3 so it could waver between the two numbers.
Steelers (-6.5) at Jaguars: With Jacksonville 0-4 ATS, it was looking like this would steam higher. However, the Steelers had an embarrassing loss to the Bucs so this line hasn't budged yet.
Cardinals at Broncos (-7): The advance line on this game was 7, and with both idle it makes sense the number stayed there, but early betting pushed it to 7.5 while offshore books have gone to 8.
Chiefs at 49ers (-7.5): The Westgate had this line at 7 last week and it got bet up to 7.5. That's where it re-opened Sunday with William Hill bumping it up to 8. This will be impacted by how KC performs on Monday night.
Jets at Chargers (-7): The advance line was 6.5, but San Diego won again Sunday and New York lost, so it re-opened at 7.5. The Wynn opened at minus-8 but it got bet down to 7.5.
Bengals at Patriots (-3): This was 3 at the Westgate last week (though the juice varied) and opened minus-3 (even money). Like the KC-SF game, this could be re-adjusted after Monday night.
Monday: Seahawks (-6.5) at Redskins: The advance line was Seahawks minus-6 and moved to 6.5 at the Westgate after Washington's loss to the Giants on Thursday, but it was bet quickly to 7. CRIS opened at 8.5 and that got bet toward 7, as well.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
</center>[h=3]Tuley's Takeaway for Week 4[/h]Who's hot, who's not
The San Diego Chargers are 4-0 ATS for the best record in the NFL. Cincinnati, which along with Arizona is the only undefeated team straight-up, also has an unblemished spread record at 3-0. Both had a bye in Week 3. Dallas and Baltimore have both won and covered three straight games after losing their openers to stand at 3-1 ATS along with Indianapolis, Houston and Detroit. As for the Cardinals, they are 2-1 ATS and the only time they let down backers was in their 18-17 non-covering victory over the Chargers in Week 1. On the other end of the spectrum, Jacksonville fell to 0-4 ATS while idle Denver stands at 0-3 ATS.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
</center>Over/under talk
In totals wagering, Indianapolis and Jacksonville are 4-0 with the over. Cleveland is 3-0. Buffalo is 4-0 with the under with Cincinnati and Arizona are both 3-0.
Over bettors were jumping for joy this past weekend. The Giants-Redskins game kicked things off Thursday by going over and then overs were 5-2 in the early games Sunday. Overs were 2-1 in the afternoon games, and then the Cowboys beat the Saints 38-17 to go just over the total of 54.5 to make overs 9-3 in Week 4 heading into Monday night.
With the Thursday and Sunday night games going over, prime-time NFL games (Thursday/Sunday/Monday) are now 10-2 to the over, including seven straight since Baltimore's 26-6 win over Pittsburgh in Week 2's Thursday night game.
Overall, overs are a modest 32-28, but these nationally televised standalone games make it seem like overs are dominating more.
I watched Sunday's games in the "War Room" at ESPN headquarters in Bristol, Connecticut, sitting among a who's who of the worldwide leader's on-air talent. I sat with my immediate supervisor/editor Ben Fawkes and Evan Abrams of ESPN Stats & Info. When the Oakland-Miami game went over the total of 41.5, I wondered how totals had fared in the NFL games in London. I remembered the first one in 2007 when the New York Giants beat Miami 13-10 and thought a lot of the games have stayed under, but I wasn't sure. Abrams researched it and found that Sunday's result made the over 5-4 in NFL games at Wembley Stadium. My first instinct was right about unders dominating early in the International Series as four of the first give games there stayed under, but now the over has hit four in a row. There are two more London games this season.
Happy handicapping!
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Dave Tuley[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
Every point counts when betting. And sometimes every half point, too.
As the afternoon games were nearing a conclusion on Sunday, I was expecting to see a tweet from someone saying "the points don't matter in the NFL." In gambling circles, that refers to the point spread seemingly not coming into play as often on a Sunday, meaning either the underdog wins outright or the favorite wins by more than the spread. Those who follow me know I'm strictly a dog-or-pass bettor.
Through the first three weeks of the season, only eight of the 48 games ended up where the team that won outright did not cover: four times in Week 1, and two times in each of the past two weeks. That's one out of every six games, or 16.7 percent. In other words, right in neighborhood of the historical average.
Starting with the New York Giants' upset of theWashington Redskins on Thursday night and through the early games on Sunday, five favorites covered and two underdogs, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Detroit Lions (a late 1.5-point underdog), won outright. In other words, the point spread hadn't come into play.
And that looked to be the case in the late games with the San Diego Chargers pulling away to a 33-14 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars to cover as 12.5-point favorites and the Minnesota Vikings knocking off the Atlanta Falcons 41-28 as 5.5-point underdogs.
But then it happened.
The San Francisco 49ers, who trailed the Philadelphia Eagles 21-13 at halftime, rallied to take a 23-21 lead on a 46-yard Phil Dawson field goal in the third quarter and extended it to 26-21 on Dawson's 31-yarder in the fourth.
Suddenly, it mattered to PHI-SF bettors whether they had been able to lay 4.5 points or less with the 49ers or if they had gotten the Eagles plus-5.5 earlier in the week (or at least plus-5 for a push).
The ironic thing is that "five" is considered a dead number in NFL wagering. I've written about it, and for the past two weeks, my boss Chad Millman discussed this concept on his "Behind the Bets" podcast with Boyd Gaming's Bob Scucci.
So, yes, every point matters, even the non-key numbers. Now that we have the reminder that every half point counts, let's look at the opening line moves for Week 5 so we can try to catch those crucial half points to help our overall record, plus some other gambling takeaways from Week 4 that we can use moving forward.
[h=3]Off-the-board report[/h]<offer></offer>The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posts its NFL openers at 4:30 p.m. PDT each Sunday. This is the section where we will note which games are off the board due to injuries (note: the SuperBook usually posts the games involving the teams involved in Sunday and Monday night games, while most books hold off on those). Again, this week there are no such games as the Westgate put up all 15 games on the Week 5 card even with the injuries to rookie QBs Blake Bortles and Teddy Bridgewater. The only other game that some other books kept off the board -- besides those involving Sunday/Monday night teams -- was the Cleveland-Tennessee game with the Titans' uncertain QB situation.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
</center>[h=3]Early Week 5 line moves[/h]Here are the openers from the Westgate SuperBook. We'll look at how we got to those numbers, including a look at the advance lines for Week 5 that they put up last Tuesday as well as where the offshore openers might have differed and how they moved in early betting Sunday afternoon. While the biggest part of winning at football is picking winners, it's just as important to be able to read the market and know when to place your wagers to get the best number, so we'll try to point out which numbers are most likely to move during the week.
Thursday: Vikings at Packers (-9.5): The advance line at the Westgate last Tuesday was Packers minus-8. It re-opened Sunday at Westgate as well as the Wynn and William Hill books at minus-9.5, while offshore giant Pinnacle and BetOnline opted for minus-10. It'll probably fall short of double digits if Bridgewater is indeed ready to play.
Bears at Panthers (-2.5): Offshore books joined the Westgate at Panthers minus-2.5 while the Wynn went with minus-3 (even money). By the end of the night, the offshore books were still at minus-2.5 but with very heavy juice. This line could hover between 2.5 and 3 throughout the week.
[h=4]Week 5 openers[/h](Home team on bottom)
Vikings
Packers -9.5
Bears
Panthers -2.5
Browns
Titans -2
Rams
Eagles -7
Falcons
Giants -2.5 (-3.5)
Buccaneers
Saints -11
Texans
Cowboys -3.5
Bills
Lions -7
Ravens
Colts -3.5
Steelers -6.5
Jaguars
Cardinals
Broncos -7 (-7.5)
Chiefs
49ers -7.5
Jets
Chargers -7
Bengals
Patriots -3 EVEN
Seahawks -6.5 (-7)
Redskins
Note: Number in parentheses is what the line was bet to by the start of the Sunday night game (when the lines for the Patriots' and Chiefs' next games were taken off the board)
Browns at Titans (-2): This was off the board last week at the Westgate due to Jake Locker's injury, and now several books haven't posted a line because the Tennessee QB situation is unclear. Still, the Titans are minus-2 at Westgate and BetOnline with the Greek opening at minus-2.5.
Rams at Eagles (-7): The advance line on this game was Eagles minus-6.5, but it got bet up to 7 last week. That's where the Westgate re-opened it, and most books agreed, though CRIS opened minus-8 but that got bet down to 7, as well.
Falcons at Giants (-2.5): This was the biggest moving line on Sunday night. Last week, this was pick 'em at the Westgate, but after New York's upset of Washington and Atlanta's loss to Minnesota, it got bet to 3.5 right away and later in the night it went to 4. Offshore books opened on the other side of the key number and they also got bet higher as 4 looks like it will be the most common spread here.
Buccaneers at Saints (-11): This was 11.5 last week and inched down after the Bucs' upset of the Steelers. We'll see how much farther it drops after New Orleans' loss at Dallas on Sunday night.
Texans at Cowboys (-3.5): This was more than a field goal before Dallas' Sunday night home win over New Orleans -- and was also bet from minus-4 to minus-4.5 at BetOnline, so this should be adjusted higher come Monday morning.
Bills at Lions (-7): The advance line on this matchup was Lions minus-6.5, so it re-opened a half point higher and it looks like a pretty solid line for the rest of the week.
Ravens at Colts (-3.5): This was 3.5 last week and with both teams winning, it looks like it should stay here; however, some offshore books opened at Colts minus-3 so it could waver between the two numbers.
Steelers (-6.5) at Jaguars: With Jacksonville 0-4 ATS, it was looking like this would steam higher. However, the Steelers had an embarrassing loss to the Bucs so this line hasn't budged yet.
Cardinals at Broncos (-7): The advance line on this game was 7, and with both idle it makes sense the number stayed there, but early betting pushed it to 7.5 while offshore books have gone to 8.
Chiefs at 49ers (-7.5): The Westgate had this line at 7 last week and it got bet up to 7.5. That's where it re-opened Sunday with William Hill bumping it up to 8. This will be impacted by how KC performs on Monday night.
Jets at Chargers (-7): The advance line was 6.5, but San Diego won again Sunday and New York lost, so it re-opened at 7.5. The Wynn opened at minus-8 but it got bet down to 7.5.
Bengals at Patriots (-3): This was 3 at the Westgate last week (though the juice varied) and opened minus-3 (even money). Like the KC-SF game, this could be re-adjusted after Monday night.
Monday: Seahawks (-6.5) at Redskins: The advance line was Seahawks minus-6 and moved to 6.5 at the Westgate after Washington's loss to the Giants on Thursday, but it was bet quickly to 7. CRIS opened at 8.5 and that got bet toward 7, as well.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
</center>[h=3]Tuley's Takeaway for Week 4[/h]Who's hot, who's not
The San Diego Chargers are 4-0 ATS for the best record in the NFL. Cincinnati, which along with Arizona is the only undefeated team straight-up, also has an unblemished spread record at 3-0. Both had a bye in Week 3. Dallas and Baltimore have both won and covered three straight games after losing their openers to stand at 3-1 ATS along with Indianapolis, Houston and Detroit. As for the Cardinals, they are 2-1 ATS and the only time they let down backers was in their 18-17 non-covering victory over the Chargers in Week 1. On the other end of the spectrum, Jacksonville fell to 0-4 ATS while idle Denver stands at 0-3 ATS.
<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
</center>Over/under talk
In totals wagering, Indianapolis and Jacksonville are 4-0 with the over. Cleveland is 3-0. Buffalo is 4-0 with the under with Cincinnati and Arizona are both 3-0.
Over bettors were jumping for joy this past weekend. The Giants-Redskins game kicked things off Thursday by going over and then overs were 5-2 in the early games Sunday. Overs were 2-1 in the afternoon games, and then the Cowboys beat the Saints 38-17 to go just over the total of 54.5 to make overs 9-3 in Week 4 heading into Monday night.
With the Thursday and Sunday night games going over, prime-time NFL games (Thursday/Sunday/Monday) are now 10-2 to the over, including seven straight since Baltimore's 26-6 win over Pittsburgh in Week 2's Thursday night game.
Overall, overs are a modest 32-28, but these nationally televised standalone games make it seem like overs are dominating more.
I watched Sunday's games in the "War Room" at ESPN headquarters in Bristol, Connecticut, sitting among a who's who of the worldwide leader's on-air talent. I sat with my immediate supervisor/editor Ben Fawkes and Evan Abrams of ESPN Stats & Info. When the Oakland-Miami game went over the total of 41.5, I wondered how totals had fared in the NFL games in London. I remembered the first one in 2007 when the New York Giants beat Miami 13-10 and thought a lot of the games have stayed under, but I wasn't sure. Abrams researched it and found that Sunday's result made the over 5-4 in NFL games at Wembley Stadium. My first instinct was right about unders dominating early in the International Series as four of the first give games there stayed under, but now the over has hit four in a row. There are two more London games this season.
Happy handicapping!
