STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_____________________________________
***** Tuesday, 9/30/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_____________________________________________________
MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #27
•Twins Fire Manager Ron Gardenhire: The Minnesota Twins fired manager Ron Gardenhire on Monday, ending a 13-season tenure that included at least 92 losses in each of the last four years. The move was made with one season left on Gardenhire's contract, ending the second-longest active tenure in the major leagues behind Mike Scioscia of the Angels. The Twins announced an afternoon news conference with Gardenhire and general manager Terry Ryan. Gardenhire played an integral role in the franchise's renaissance, guiding the Twins to their first of six American League Central division titles in 2002 in his first year on the job. But Gardenhire's teams only got out of the first round once, and his postseason record was 6-21 with the last win coming in 2004.
The Twins have long been the model of stability in not only baseball but major professional sports, with only two managers over the last 28 years and two general managers over the last 20 seasons. But all the losing of late became too much to overcome. Over the last four years, the Twins went 78-148 from Aug. 1 on for an abysmal .345 winning percentage. This year, Gardenhire became just the fourth manager in the game's history to preside over at least four straight 90-loss seasons with the same team, joining Connie Mack of the Philadelphia Athletics (nine), Zach Taylor of the St. Louis Browns (four) and his predecessor with the Twins, Tom Kelly (four). Kelly returned for one more season after his streak, and he retired after an 85-77 finish in 2001.
In an era when job security for managers is seemingly measured in months, Gardenhire's longevity has been truly unique. The outspoken and fiery Gardenhire quickly became one of the faces of the franchise, as synonymous with the Twins as the interlocking T and C on their caps. He took over for the revered Kelly, who won two World Series championships, just as the organization was starting to regain its footing after years of bad baseball. Gardenhire clashed with some players over the years, but there was expectation and hope among the players that he would return. "Sometimes you go out and you don't play as well as you would've liked, but it's not always the staff's fault when it comes to those sorts of things," starting pitcher Phil Hughes said. "We have to be better. That's the bottom line."
Gardenhire joined the organization in 1987 and was added to Kelly's staff in 1991. His record as Twins manager was 1,068-1,039. He won the American League Manager of the Year award in 2010, the last time the Twins not only made the playoffs but had a winning record. "As good as it gets in my opinion. Comes to the park ready to win each and every day. Kind of a players' manager," second baseman Brian Dozier said last week. "Always in good spirits. He knows the game better than anybody I've been around. I 100 percent want him back." The contracts of Gardenhire's coaches were expiring, but some of them could be brought back. Bench coach Paul Molitor is sure to be considered as Gardenhire's replacement, but Ryan's search will spread outside the organization, too.
Ryan gave Gardenhire a two-year contract after last season, blaming himself for the roster he assembled. But this winter, the Twins spent big on Hughes and fellow right-hander Ricky Nolasco in an attempt to upgrade the rotation. Veteran catcher Kurt Suzuki was added, too, and made the All-Star team. But despite the emergence of prospects Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas, the Twins simply didn't make enough progress to avoid a shake-up. Nolasco's rough debut season and Joe Mauer's down year in the switch to first base were major disappointments, but bringing Gardenhire back for another year would not have gone over well with an increasingly frustrated fan base. Attendance in Target Field's fifth year was the lowest for the Twins since 2004.
•A.J. Hinch Hired To Manage Astros: A person familiar with the hiring tells The Associated Press that A.J. Hinch is the new manager of the Houston Astros. The person spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity because the team had not yet announced the decision. A news conference was scheduled for later Monday. The Houston Chronicle first reported the hiring. Hinch takes over for Bo Porter, who was fired on Sept. 1 in his second year. Tom Lawless ran the team for the rest of the season on an interim basis. The Astros finished 70-92 and fourth in the AL West. Hinch managed the Arizona Diamondbacks from May of 2009 until July 2010, when he was fired after 31-48 start. Most recently, he worked as the vice president of professional scouting for the San Diego Padres from 2010 until August. The 40-year-old is a former catcher who spent seven seasons in the majors with the Athletics, Royals, Tigers and Phillies.
•MLB Batting Average Lowest Since 1972: The final numbers are in, and Major League Baseball's batting average hasn't been this low since Richard Nixon was in the White House, a gallon of gasoline cost 55 cents and the designated hitter was a radical proposal limited to spring training experiments. Big league hitters batted .251 this year, down two points from last season and 20 points lower than the Steroids Era peak in 1999. Lots of big names didn't even reach the average, a group that includes Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn, B.J. Upton, Brian McCann and Curtis Granderson. The last time the average dripped this low was at .244 in 1972 - an offensive death that prompted owners to let American League teams start using DHs the following year.
Hall of Famer George Brett says times have changed from the days fastballers like Nolan Ryan and Goose Gossage stood out. "Now a lot of guys throw 95 or higher," Brett said. "Every team has them." For much of the season, most games seemed like throwback nights - and not just because of vintage-jersey promotions. Colorado's Justin Morneau won the NL batting title at .319 - the lowest for a batting champion in either league since the late Tony Gwynn hit .313 for San Diego in 1988. Los Angeles Angels star Mike Trout had 111 RBIs, the fewest for an AL leader in a non-shortened season since Baltimore's Lee May had 109 in 1976. Just 12 players had 100 or more RBIs, down from a record 59 in 1999.
"Before it used to be are we facing `that guy,' and if we're not we've got a good shot out there," Granderson said after a frustrating first year with the New York Mets. "This season I've noticed each team you go up against you're always facing `that guy,' and it tends to be three, if not four or five times out of the rotation." And gas comes out of the bullpen, too. Dominant closers and setup man have led to a .241 batting average from the seventh inning on - MLB's lowest since STATS' records began in 1974. There were just 116 complete games - the second-lowest ahead of 112 in 2007 and down from 1,089 in 1974." There are so many teams that are bringing in guys throwing 95-98 (mph), more than I've ever seen," San Francisco Giants manager Bruce Bochy said.
Teams averaged 4.07 runs per game, the lowest since 1981 and down from 5.14 in 2000, when sluggers ruled the field and performance-enhancing drugs were rampant. The homers-a-game average of 0.87 hasn't been this small since 1992. Agents trying to sell teams on their position players tell executives that when it comes to home runs, 30 is the new 40 now that bulked-up boppers no longer are the norm." PED use is way down," San Diego Padres manager Bud Black said. "I do think that has knocked down some of the averages based on what we know about PEDs and how they affect a player's performance."
With 95 homers, Kansas City became the first AL team to reach the postseason despite being last in the majors in long balls since the 1959 Chicago White Sox hit 97, according to STATS. Oakland pitchers had a .290 opponents' on-base percentage, the lowest in the big leagues since the 1981 Houston Astros and the lowest in the AL since 1972. "The sport is changing. Pitching has been dominant," outgoing baseball Commissioner Bud Selig said. "There are a lot of theories about it. But everything does go in cycles. There are a lot of good, young hitters coming in, so I'm not concerned about it." And with all that pitching, strikeouts per game set a record for the seventh straight season. Teams averaged 7.70 per game, up from 4.77 in 1979. "Guys don't care if they strike out. I used to get (angry) when I struck out," Brett said. "Now strikeouts are part of the game."
_______________________________________________________
2014 Playoff Outlook
Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Unlike the past two seasons, one team we are not fearing is the Oakland A's (5/1) , who had MLB's best record as of Aug. 8, but proceeded to lose 30 of their next 46 and had to wait until the final day of the regular season before clinching a postseason berth. It looks like GM Billy Beane made one move too many at the trade deadline, as dealing OF Yoenis Cespedes to the Bosox in the Jon Lester trade would significantly hamper the offense and remove its most-intimidating element; after leading MLB in runs scored prior to the Cespedes trade, Oakland has been the AL's lowest-scoring team. Midseason rotation additions Lester and Jeff Samardzija make it hard to dismiss the A's in a short series, but the offense has been too easily shackled minus Cespedes.
We are more wary of Oakland's wild card opponent, the Kansas City Royals (7/1) , who also have a parade of arms and an overflow of quality in the rotation led by James Shields and recently-dominating Danny Duffy. Though Kansas City is apt to slump at the plate, it has enough pitching to cause serious problems for any foe in a short series and gets to host the A's in Tuesday's wild card game at the Big K.
We do not believe the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (2/1) have a smooth ride awaiting to the World Series despite their home-field edge as long as they stay alive in the postseason. Mike Scioscia has hinted that he could go with a three-man rotation (Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, and Hector Santiago should rookie Matt Shoemaker's oblique strain not heal in time) in the playoffs. But it's the Angels' win percentage vs. playoff-quality foes, hovering around .400 all season (compared to near-.700 vs. also-rans), that is a postseason red flag. Mike Trout's propensity for strikeouts (a whopping 183) is also too easily dismissed by his many supporters. Without the Astros, White Sox, Rangers, or Twins to knock around in October, the Halos might be more vulnerable than many believe.
If the Angels meet the Baltimore Orioles (3/1), it won't happen until the ALCS, and the Birds would have no fear of that matchup after taking 4 of 6 from the Halos this season. There has been some magic about this version of the O's, who have kept scoring runs and winning despite injuries to 3B Manny Machado and C Matt Weiters and the suspension of 1B Chris Davis. And while many wonder if the Birds have enough starting pitching (Bud Norris? Chris Tillman? Wei-Yin Chen?) to survive in the postseason, Buck Showalter has squeezed every possible ounce out of his versatile bullpen. If the relievers' arms haven't fallen off by now, they probably won't in October, either.
How about the Detroit Tigers (5/2)? Although having dealt with myriad bullpen issues in recent years, the problems seem especially acute this season as manager Brad Ausmus has shown less and less faith in erratic closer Joe Nathan as the season has progressed. Moreover, the staff seems a bit less menacing than recent years, with Justin Verlander having lost considerable velocity, and David Price proving inconsistent since his trade-deadline acquisition from the Rays. The Tigers need their offense clicking, because the rotation and bullpen have performed so inconsistently, which should give the edge to the Birds in the ALDS.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Sometimes, "addition by subtraction" really is meaningful in pro sports. And we suggest the injury to 3B Pedro Alvarez has in fact made the Pittsburgh Pirates (11/2) more of a postseason threat. It is no coincidence that the Pirates won 17 of 21 down the stretch with Alvarez sidelined and with do-everything Josh Harrison handling duties effectively at the corner. The Bucs have star power with Andrew McCutchen and a staff with plenty of momentum, as Francisco Liriano and Edinson Volquez have been two of the NL's hottest starters since the All-Star break. The Pirates just missed winning the NL Central, so they must go the wild card route, but they have postseason experience now after advancing from the wild card to the NLDS last season.
We suspect the Bucs are more of a threat than their wild card foe, the San Francisco Giants (7/1) , who have been playing sub-.500 ball (45-53) since early June, a far cry from their World Series winners of 2010 & '12 that hit stride following the All-Star break. The Giants must go on the road to PNC Park for Wednesday's wild card game.
We look forward to the rematch of last year's NLCS, this year a round sooner, between the Los Angeles Dodgers (2/1) and St. Louis Cardinals (7/1) . Interestingly, normally unhittable Dodger ace Clayton Kershaw was anything but in playoffs vs. the Cards last season. But even with Kershaw in untouchable form, the Dodgers performed in an uneven manner much of the campaign, barely getting above .500 at home until late in the season (though the Blue owns MLB's best road mark at 49-32), and there are depth problems in the rotation beyond Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Mercurial OF Yasiel Puig has also failed to smooth the many rough spots in his game that were exploited by the Redbirds last October. Considering the Dodgers' inside-out home-road pattern this season, perhaps it's a break for St. Louis to open the NLDS on the road.
If Adam Wainwright (1.62 ERA in five September starts) can outduel Kershaw in the opener, the momentum of the series shifts completely in St. Louis' direction. No team has fared as well in the postseason lately as the Cardinals, who can still manufacture runs effectively and own proven October forces in Matt Holliday and Yadier Molina. Mike Matheny also has more bullpen options than Don Mattingly, though closer Trevor Rosenthal did blow six saves this season.
But if it's not the Pirates emerging from the in the NL, we expect it will be the Washington Nationals (2/1), who like the Bucs also have had a recent taste of the postseason (2012), though they would rather not recall blowing a 6-0 lead in the deciding Game 5 vs. the Cards in the NLDS. There is more experience and depth on the roster than in 2012, though we wonder about the offense beyond reliable contact hitters CF Denard Span and 3B Ryan Zimmerman. Manager Matt Williams was also forced to realign his bullpen, where the Nats fortunately have several options and recently anointed Drew Storen the new closer after Rafael Soriano began to wobble in August. The pressure is also on flamethrower Stephen Strasburg, who missed the playoffs due to arm problems two years ago. But Jordan Zimmerman is certainly in top form after no-hitting the Marlins in Sunday's regular-season finale. And the Nats earned home-field edge in the NL mainly because of MLB's best ERA, the NL's third highest-scoring offense, and arguably best defense of any contender.
It would not surprise us to see a Beltway World Series. But if the Nats have to hook the Pirates in the NLDS, we might eventually be treated to a rematch of memorable 1971 and '79 Fall Classics between the Bucs and O's instead.
StatSystems Sports
Your #1 Source for Winning Information...
StatSystemsSports.net takes pride in providing the average player with an edge by building a full in-depth analysis of football, basketball and baseball games. All aspects of games are considered. These include; but are not limited to, injuries, weather, playing surface, team chemistry, individual match-ups, line moves, scheduling, fatigue, statistical analysis, trend analysis, etc. The better prepared you are - The better chance you have of winning, plain and simple.
"Get the most sought after plays in the industry today!" Call us today for a 1 Day VIP Pass - $29.00, 7 Day VIP Pass - $149.00, or get our most popular 30 Day VIP Package for just $499.00. "You'll be Real Glad You Did!"
___________________________________________________
#945 OAKLAND #946 KANSAS CITY
TV: 8:07 p.m. ET, TBS
Line: Royals -110, Total: 6.5 -110
The Kansas City Royals are playing a postseason game for the first time in 29 years when they host the Oakland Athletics in Tuesday’s American League wild-card game. The Royals have been perennial pushovers since winning the 1985 World Series before recently emerging behind a rock-solid bullpen. Oakland, which went 10-20 to finish this season, is in the postseason for the third straight season and lost to the Detroit Tigers in the American League Division Series each of the last two years.
Jon Lester, who was acquired from the Boston Red Sox specifically for this situation, will be on the mound for the Athletics. James Shields takes the ball for Kansas City and will get the opportunity to back up his nickname of “Big Game James.” Closer Greg Holland (46 saves, 1.44 ERA) and setup man Wade Davis (9-2, 1.00) headline the Royals’ bullpen, but Oakland is strong in the back end as well, led by closer Sean Doolittle (22 saves, 89 strikeouts against just eight walks).
PITCHING MATCHUP
•Athletics LH Jon Lester (16-11, 2.46 ERA, WHIP: 1.102) - Lester went 2-0 with a 0.59 ERA in last season’s World Series for Boston and has gone 6-4 with a 2.35 ERA in 11 starts since Oakland acquired him from the Red Sox. He was 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA against the Royals this season – two of the wins came with Oakland – and has career marks of 9-3 and 1.84 in 13 career starts against Kansas City. Lester went 3-2 with a 2.00 ERA in five September starts and his postseason numbers line up this way: 6-4 and 2.11 in 13 career appearances (11 starts).
--LESTER is 23-10 UNDER (+11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LESTER 3.9, OPPONENT 3.2.
--LESTER is 24-9 UNDER (+13.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LESTER 3.9, OPPONENT 3.2.
--LESTER is 18-5 UNDER (+11.6 Units) versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was LESTER 4.3, OPPONENT 2.5.
•Royals RH James Shields (14-8, 3.21 ERA, WHIP: 1.181) - Shields was 1-0 with a 3.21 ERA in two starts against Oakland this season and is 6-4 with a 3.82 ERA in 15 career outings against the Athletics. He went 2-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in five September starts. Shields went 2-4 with a 4.98 ERA in six postseason starts with the Tampa Bay Rays before being dealt to the Royals.
--SHIELDS is 45-21 (+17.2 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SHIELDS 4.7, OPPONENT 3.2.
--SHIELDS is 25-9 (+17.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was SHIELDS 5.4, OPPONENT 3.0.
--SHIELDS is 31-14 UNDER (+14.5 Units) when playing on Tuesday since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was SHIELDS 3.6, OPPONENT 3.5.
•PREGAME NOTES: The winner meets the Los Angeles Angels in the best-of-5 American League Divisional Series, beginning Thursday night in Anaheim.... Kansas City won five of the seven regular-season meetings, including three of four at home.... Athletics RF Josh Reddick, who is 16-for-33 over his last 10 games, is batting .318 with three homers in 22 at-bats against Shields. Shields is 34-17 in the second half of the season over the last thee seasons, and 12-3 after a win this season.... Lester is 33-16 Under in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.
•KEY STATS
--OAKLAND is 17-6 UNDER (+10.1 Units) in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season.
The average score was OAKLAND 3.3, OPPONENT 3.2.
--KANSAS CITY is 38-20 UNDER (+13.9 Units) versus an American League starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 or better this season.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 3.3, OPPONENT 3.5.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--Games Over The Last 3 Seasons: KANSAS CITY is 11-11 (+1.2 Units) against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons. 15 of 21 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons Under= +7.8 Units.
--Games This Season: KANSAS CITY is 5-2 (+4.6 Units) against OAKLAND this season. 4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season Under= +0.0 Units.
--All Games KANSAS CITY at Over The Last 3 Seasons: KANSAS CITY is 8-5 (+2.7 Units) against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons. 8 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons Under= +3.3 Units.
--Under is 12-4-1 in the last 17 meetings.
--Athletics are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.
--Under is 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings in Kansas City.
•RECENT TRENDS
--OAK is 1-4 in their last 5 Tuesday games.
--OAK is 1-5 in their last 6 playoff road games.
--Under is 7-1-1 in OAK last 9 road games.
--KC is 7-1 in their last 8 vs. American League West.
--KC is 4-1 in their last 5 games versus a LH starter.
--Under is 7-3 in Shields' last 10 starts vs. ALW.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Under - All teams where the total is 7 or less (KANSAS CITY) - below average American League hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA <=3.33), with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season.
(110-61 since 1997.) (64.3%, +40.5 units. Rating = 2*)
The average total posted in these games was: 6.8, Money Line=-113.9
The average score in these games was: Team 3.2, Opponent 3 (Total runs scored = 6.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 84 (52.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (32-27, +0.9 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (84-52, +25.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (94-57, +29.2 units).
__________________________________________________
