[h=1]How to bet MLB wild-card games[/h][h=3]How to bet OAK-KC, SF-PIT and the best World Series futures bet[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Dave Tuley[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
An exciting regular season is behind us, but now MLB fans and bettors get down to the business of determining who will be crowned the 2014 champion.
Fittingly, following a regular season in which no teams pulled away from the pack either in the divisional races or as a clear front-runner for the World Series title, the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook has the Los Angeles Dodgers, Detroit Tigers and Washington Nationals as 9-2 tri-favorites. The other three division winners -- the Los Angeles Angels (5-1), Baltimore Orioles(7-1) and St. Louis Cardinals (8-1) -- are next in line, with the wild-card teams all in double digits.
[h=4]Odds to win World Series[/h]
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The top four teams from the Westgate's future-book odds in March all made the playoffs, but it's interesting to note that of the top-10 teams at that time, five didn't make it: the[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Boston Red Sox[/FONT] (12-1), [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]New York Yankees[/FONT] (12-1), [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Tampa Bay Rays[/FONT] (12-1), [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Atlanta Braves[/FONT] (15-1) and [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Texas Rangers[/FONT](16-1). Those three other AL East teams were all ranked ahead of the Orioles to start of the season, and of course those holding Rangers playoff tickets tore those up long ago.But enough about the also-rans.
Here's a look at the best bets for the two wild-card games, along with my best World Series bet.
<offer></offer>
In trying to determine the best bet on the board as the playoffs begin, the Orioles at 7-1 might be the best of the bunch. Obviously, they have a tough divisional series matchup against the Tigers, but at least they have home-field advantage. While that matters the most if there's a Game 5, it also helps early in the series. I tabbed the Orioles as my best bet at the All-Star break as well; they were at 14-1. If you missed it at that time, at least they got here, considering there was doubt (and odds of just 11-10) that they would hold on to win the division.
Before the season, my best bet was the San Francisco Giants at 20-1. I really felt good about that early in the season, but they couldn't hold off the Dodgers. They still made the playoffs, but now they must play the wild-card game Wednesday. I've had readers tell me they bet the Giants with me before the season and are going to hedge with a play on the Pittsburgh Pirates. I'm not thrilled with that strategy, as that could lead to expensive hedging along the way since they'd be big underdogs to the Nationals (so you'd have to lay down a big price to go against them) and down the road. Besides, I made the play on the Giants because I believed they would avoid this game and hopefully have home-field advantage in most of their playoff matchups. If they lose Wednesday, I'll feel it was a bad bet and deserved to lose anyway (though I'll be happy to back them if they do survive).
The other teams don't look playable as future bets, though I've learned from experience you should never count out the Cardinals, so if someone is looking for another play, I'd suggest a flier on them.
The play: Orioles to win World Series at 7-1.
Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals
Tuesday, Sept. 30 (8:05 p.m. ET)
Odds: Oakland -105/Kansas City -105
PickCenter: 50-50
</center>The A's utilize the "Moneyball" strategy, but they haven't been pinching as many pennies this year, and one of their midseason acquisitions, Jon Lester, takes the mound in this play-in game. Lester is 9-3 in his career against the Royals, and while that's mostly from his days with the Red Sox, he's 2-0 vs. K.C. since joining the A's. In fact, he made his first start with Oakland against the Royals (on my birthday, Aug. 2) and recorded a quality start and the win. He beat the Royals again 10 days later with another quality start. Lester has a lifetime 1.84 ERA and 1.06 WHIP against Kansas City. James Shields takes the mound for the Royals, and he's 6-4 lifetime against the A's with a 3.82 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.
Overall, I like the A's offense better, as they ranked third in the AL in the regular season with 729 runs scored and averaged about a half-run more per game (4.5 to 3.9) than the Royals. The odds are right around pick 'em (minus-105 on each side using a dime line); the Westgate has the A's as a slight minus-107 favorite as of Tuesday morning, while the Wynn Las Vegas has the Royals favored by the same price.
The pick: Oakland -105
San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates
Wednesday, Sept. 30 (8:05 p.m. ET)
Odds: San Francisco -113/Pittsburgh +103
</center>As I stated earlier, I have a built-in bias on this game. I'm not in favor of hedging against my Giants play with the Pirates at slightly more than even money. These teams are pretty even, as they were both 88-64 overall; the Pirates have a slight edge in runs scored (682-665) and batting average (.259-.255), so there's no discernible edge. The starting pitchers -- Madison Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) for the Giants and Edinson Volquez (13-7, 3.04 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) for the Pirates -- are pretty even as well. If I felt the need to bet, I'd probably go with the over. I don't necessarily think this will be a slugfest, but both pitchers have been lit up by the opposing team on occasion, so it might be worth a shot.
The pick: Pass (with a lean to over 6.5 runs)
We'll be back Thursday to preview the four divisional playoff matchups.
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Dave Tuley[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
An exciting regular season is behind us, but now MLB fans and bettors get down to the business of determining who will be crowned the 2014 champion.
Fittingly, following a regular season in which no teams pulled away from the pack either in the divisional races or as a clear front-runner for the World Series title, the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook has the Los Angeles Dodgers, Detroit Tigers and Washington Nationals as 9-2 tri-favorites. The other three division winners -- the Los Angeles Angels (5-1), Baltimore Orioles(7-1) and St. Louis Cardinals (8-1) -- are next in line, with the wild-card teams all in double digits.
[h=4]Odds to win World Series[/h]
| Team | Current | March 24 |
|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 9-2 | 6-1 |
| Tigers | 9-2 | 7-1 |
| Nationals | 9-2 | 8-1 |
| Angels | 5-1 | 16-1 |
| Orioles | 7-1 | 40-1 |
| Cardinals | 8-1 | 6-1 |
| A's | 12-1 | 15-1 |
| Pirates | 14-1 | 30-1 |
| Giants | 14-1 | 20-1 |
| Royals | 16-1 | 30-1 |
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The top four teams from the Westgate's future-book odds in March all made the playoffs, but it's interesting to note that of the top-10 teams at that time, five didn't make it: the[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Boston Red Sox[/FONT] (12-1), [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]New York Yankees[/FONT] (12-1), [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Tampa Bay Rays[/FONT] (12-1), [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Atlanta Braves[/FONT] (15-1) and [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Texas Rangers[/FONT](16-1). Those three other AL East teams were all ranked ahead of the Orioles to start of the season, and of course those holding Rangers playoff tickets tore those up long ago.But enough about the also-rans.
Here's a look at the best bets for the two wild-card games, along with my best World Series bet.
<offer></offer>
In trying to determine the best bet on the board as the playoffs begin, the Orioles at 7-1 might be the best of the bunch. Obviously, they have a tough divisional series matchup against the Tigers, but at least they have home-field advantage. While that matters the most if there's a Game 5, it also helps early in the series. I tabbed the Orioles as my best bet at the All-Star break as well; they were at 14-1. If you missed it at that time, at least they got here, considering there was doubt (and odds of just 11-10) that they would hold on to win the division.
Before the season, my best bet was the San Francisco Giants at 20-1. I really felt good about that early in the season, but they couldn't hold off the Dodgers. They still made the playoffs, but now they must play the wild-card game Wednesday. I've had readers tell me they bet the Giants with me before the season and are going to hedge with a play on the Pittsburgh Pirates. I'm not thrilled with that strategy, as that could lead to expensive hedging along the way since they'd be big underdogs to the Nationals (so you'd have to lay down a big price to go against them) and down the road. Besides, I made the play on the Giants because I believed they would avoid this game and hopefully have home-field advantage in most of their playoff matchups. If they lose Wednesday, I'll feel it was a bad bet and deserved to lose anyway (though I'll be happy to back them if they do survive).
The other teams don't look playable as future bets, though I've learned from experience you should never count out the Cardinals, so if someone is looking for another play, I'd suggest a flier on them.
The play: Orioles to win World Series at 7-1.
[h=3]Wild-card games[/h]<center style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; font-size: 12px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 16.6200008392334px; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals
Tuesday, Sept. 30 (8:05 p.m. ET)
Odds: Oakland -105/Kansas City -105
PickCenter: 50-50
</center>The A's utilize the "Moneyball" strategy, but they haven't been pinching as many pennies this year, and one of their midseason acquisitions, Jon Lester, takes the mound in this play-in game. Lester is 9-3 in his career against the Royals, and while that's mostly from his days with the Red Sox, he's 2-0 vs. K.C. since joining the A's. In fact, he made his first start with Oakland against the Royals (on my birthday, Aug. 2) and recorded a quality start and the win. He beat the Royals again 10 days later with another quality start. Lester has a lifetime 1.84 ERA and 1.06 WHIP against Kansas City. James Shields takes the mound for the Royals, and he's 6-4 lifetime against the A's with a 3.82 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.
Overall, I like the A's offense better, as they ranked third in the AL in the regular season with 729 runs scored and averaged about a half-run more per game (4.5 to 3.9) than the Royals. The odds are right around pick 'em (minus-105 on each side using a dime line); the Westgate has the A's as a slight minus-107 favorite as of Tuesday morning, while the Wynn Las Vegas has the Royals favored by the same price.
The pick: Oakland -105
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San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates
Wednesday, Sept. 30 (8:05 p.m. ET)
Odds: San Francisco -113/Pittsburgh +103
</center>As I stated earlier, I have a built-in bias on this game. I'm not in favor of hedging against my Giants play with the Pirates at slightly more than even money. These teams are pretty even, as they were both 88-64 overall; the Pirates have a slight edge in runs scored (682-665) and batting average (.259-.255), so there's no discernible edge. The starting pitchers -- Madison Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) for the Giants and Edinson Volquez (13-7, 3.04 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) for the Pirates -- are pretty even as well. If I felt the need to bet, I'd probably go with the over. I don't necessarily think this will be a slugfest, but both pitchers have been lit up by the opposing team on occasion, so it might be worth a shot.
The pick: Pass (with a lean to over 6.5 runs)
We'll be back Thursday to preview the four divisional playoff matchups.
